Assessment of changes in smile after rapid maxillary expansion

INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated changes in the smile characteristics of patients with maxillary constriction submitted to rapid maxillary expansion (RME). METHODS: The sample consisted of 81 extraoral photographs of maximum smile of 27 patients with mean age of 10 years, before expansion and 3 and 6 months after fixation of the expanding screw. The photographs were analyzed on the software Cef X 2001, with achievement of the following measurements: Transverse smile area, buccal corridors, exposure of maxillary incisors, gingival exposure of maxillary incisors, smile height, upper and lower lip thickness, smile symmetry and smile arch. Statistical analysis was performed by analysis of variance (ANOVA), at a significance level of 5%. RESULTS: RME promoted statistically significant increase in the transverse smile dimension and exposure of maxillary central and lateral incisors; maintenance of right and left side smile symmetry and of the lack of parallelism between the curvature of the maxillary incisal edges and lower lip border. CONCLUSIONS: RME was beneficial for the smile esthetics with the increase of the transverse smile dimension and exposure of maxillary central and lateral incisors.

Fluoxetine exposure during pregnancy and lactation: effects on acute stress response and behavior in the novelty-suppressed feeding are age and gender-dependent in rats

Fluoxetine (FLX) is commonly used to treat anxiety and depressive disorders in pregnant women. Since FLX crosses the placenta and is excreted in milk, maternal treatment with this antidepressant may expose the fetus and neonate to increased levels of serotonin (5-HT). Long-term behavioral abnormalities have been reported in rodents exposed to higher levels of 5-HT during neurodevelopment. In this study we evaluated if maternal exposure to FLX during pregnancy and lactation would result in behavioral and/or stress response disruption in adolescent and adult rats. Our results indicate that exposure to FLX influenced restraint stress-induced Fos expression in the amygdala in a gender and age-specific manner. In male animals, a decreased expression was observed in the basolateral amygdala at adolescence and adulthood; whereas at adulthood, a decrease was also observed in the medial amygdala. A lack of FLX exposure effect was observed in females and also in the paraventricular nucleus of both genders. Regarding the behavioral evaluation, FLX exposure did not induce anhedonia in the sucrose preference test but decreased the latency to feed of both male and female adolescent rats evaluated in the novelty-suppressed feeding test. In conclusion, FLX exposure during pregnancy and lactation decreases acute amygdalar stress response to a psychological stressor in males (adolescents and adults) as well as influences the behavior of adolescents (males and females) in a model that evaluates anxiety and/or depressive-like behavior. Even though FLX seems to be a developmental neurotoxicant, the translation of these findings to human safe assessment remains to be determined since it is recognized that not treating a pregnant or lactating woman may also impact negatively the development of the descendants.

Safety assessment of oral photodynamic therapy in rats

Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is based on the synergism of a photosensitive drug (a photosensitizer) and visible light to destroy target cells (e.g., malignant, premalignant, or bacterial cells). The aim of this study was to investigate the response of normal rat tongue mucosa to PDT following the topical application of hematoporphyrin derivative (Photogem®), Photodithazine®, methylene blue (MB), and poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) nanoparticles loaded with MB. One hundred and thirty three rats were randomly divided in various groups: the PDT groups were treated with the photosensitizers for 10 min followed by exposure to red light. Those in control groups received neither photosensitizer nor light, and they were subjected to light exposure alone or to photosensitizer alone. Fluorescent signals were obtained from tongue tissue immediately after the topical application of photosensitizers and 24 h following PDT. Histological changes were evaluated at baseline and at 1, 3, 7, and 15 days post-PDT treatment. Fluorescence was detected immediately after the application of the photosensitizers, but not 24 h following PDT. Histology revealed intact mucosa in all experimental groups at all evaluation time points. The results suggest that there is a therapeutic window where PDT with Photogem®, Photodithazine®, MB, and MB-loaded PLGA nanoparticles could safely target oral pathogenic bacteria without damaging normal oral tissue.

The challenges and the limitations in Life Cycle Impact Assessment for metal oxide nanoparticles, a case study on nano- TiO2

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a chain-oriented tool to evaluate the environment performance of products focussing on the entire life cycle of these products: from the extraction of resources, via manufacturing and use, to the final processing of the disposed products. Through all these stages consumption of resources and pollutant releases to air, water, soil are identified and quantified in Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) analysis. Subsequently to the LCI phase follows the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) phase; that has the purpose to convert resource consumptions and pollutant releases in environmental impacts. The LCIA aims to model and to evaluate environmental issues, called impact categories. Several reports emphasises the importance of LCA in the field of ENMs. The ENMs offer enormous potential for the development of new products and application. There are however unanswered questions about the impacts of ENMs on human health and the environment. In the last decade the increasing production, use and consumption of nanoproducts, with a consequent release into the environment, has accentuated the obligation to ensure that potential risks are adequately understood to protect both human health and environment. Due to its holistic and comprehensive assessment, LCA is an essential tool evaluate, understand and manage the environmental and health effects of nanotechnology. The evaluation of health and environmental impacts of nanotechnologies, throughout the whole of their life-cycle by using LCA methodology. This is due to the lack of knowledge in relation to risk assessment. In fact, to date, the knowledge on human and environmental exposure to nanomaterials, such ENPs is limited. This bottleneck is reflected into LCA where characterisation models and consequently characterisation factors for ENPs are missed. The PhD project aims to assess limitations and challenges of the freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity potential evaluation in LCIA phase for ENPs and in particular nanoparticles as n-TiO2.

Outdoor bronze conservation: assessment of protective treatments by accelerated aging and of treatment removal procedures by laser cleaning

Outdoor bronzes exposed to the environment form naturally a layer called patina, which may be able to protect the metallic substrate. However, since the last century, with the appearance of acid rains, a strong change in the nature and properties of the copper based patinas occurred [1]. Studies and general observations have established that bronze corrosion patinas created by acid rain are not only disfiguring in terms of loss of detail and homogeneity, but are also unstable [2]. The unstable patina is partially leached away by rainwater. This leaching is represented by green streaking on bronze monuments [3]. Because of the instability of the patina, conservation techniques are usually required. On a bronze object exposed to the outdoor environment, there are different actions of the rainfall and other atmospheric agents as a function of the monument shape. In fact, we recognize sheltered and unsheltered areas as regards exposure to rainwater [4]. As a consequence of these different actions, two main patina types are formed on monuments exposed to the outdoor environment. These patinas have different electrochemical, morphological and compositional characteristics [1]. In the case of sheltered areas, the patina contains mainly copper products, stratified above a layer strongly enriched in insoluble Sn oxides, located at the interface with the uncorroded metal. Moreover, different colors of the patina result from the exposure geometry. The surface color may be pale green for unsheltered areas, and green and mat black for sheltered areas [4]. Thus, in real outdoor bronze monuments, the corrosion behavior is strongly influenced by the exposure geometry. This must be taken into account when designing conservation procedures, since the patina is in most cases the support on which corrosion inhibitors are applied. Presently, for protecting outdoor bronzes against atmospheric corrosion, inhibitors and protective treatments are used. BTA and its derivatives, which are the most common inhibitors used for copper and its alloy, were found to be toxic for the environment and human health [5, 6]. Moreover, it has been demonstrated that BTA is efficient when applied on bare copper but not as efficient when applied on bare bronze [7]. Thus it was necessary to find alternative compounds. Silane-based inhibitors (already successfully tested on copper and other metallic substrates [8]), were taken into consideration as a non-toxic, environmentally friendly alternative to BTA derivatives for bronze protection. The purpose of this thesis was based on the assessment of the efficiency of a selected compound, to protect the bronze against corrosion, which is the 3-mercapto-propyl-trimethoxy-silane (PropS-SH). It was selected thanks to the collaboration with the Corrosion Studies Centre “Aldo Daccò” at the Università di Ferrara. Since previous studies [9, 10, 11] demonstrated that the addition of nanoparticles to silane-based inhibitors leads to an increase of the protective efficiency, we also wanted to evaluate the influence of the addition of CeO2, La2O3, TiO2 nanoparticles on the protective efficiency of 3-mercapto-propyl-trimethoxy-silane, applied on pre-patinated bronze surfaces. This study is the first section of the thesis. Since restorers have to work on patinated bronzes and not on bare metal (except for contemporary art), it is important to be able to recreate the patina, under laboratory conditions, either in sheltered or unsheltered conditions to test the coating and to obtain reliable results. Therefore, at the University of Bologna, different devices have been designed to simulate the real outdoor conditions and to create a patina which is representative of real application conditions of inhibitor or protective treatments. In particular, accelerated ageing devices by wet & dry (simulating the action of stagnant rain in sheltered areas [12]) and by dropping (simulating the leaching action of the rain in unsheltered areas [1]) tests were used. In the present work, we used the dropping test as a method to produce pre-patinated bronze surfaces for the application of a candidate inhibitor as well as for evaluating its protective efficiency on aged bronze (unsheltered areas). In this thesis, gilded bronzes were also studied. When they are exposed to the outside environment, a corrosion phenomenon appears which is due to the electrochemical couple gold/copper where copper is the anode. In the presence of an electrolyte, this phenomenon results in the formation of corrosion products than will cause a blistering of the gold (or a break-up and loss of the film in some cases). Moreover, because of the diffusion of the copper salts to the surface, aggregates and a greenish film will be formed on the surface of the sample [13]. By coating gilded samples with PropS-SH and PropS-SH containing nano-particles and carrying out accelerated ageing by the dropping test, a discussion is possible on the effectiveness of this coating, either with nano-particles or not, against the corrosion process. This part is the section 2 of this thesis. Finally, a discussion about laser treatment aiming at the assessment of reversibility/re-applicability of the PropS-SH coating can be found in section 3 of this thesis. Because the protective layer loses its efficiency with time, it is necessary to find a way of removing the silane layer, before applying a new one on the “bare” patina. One request is to minimize the damages that a laser treatment would create on the patina. Therefore, different laser fluences (energy/surface) were applied on the sample surface during the treatment process in order to find the best range of fluence. In particular, we made a characterization of surfaces before and after removal of PropS-SH (applied on a naturally patinated surface, and subsequently aged by natural exposure) with laser methods. The laser removal treatment was done by the CNR Institute of Applied Physics “Nello Carrara” of Sesto Fiorentino in Florence. In all the three sections of the thesis, a range of non-destructive spectroscopic methods (Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), μ-Raman spectroscopy, X-Ray diffractometry (XRD)) were used for characterizing the corroded surfaces. AAS (Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy) was used to analyze the ageing solutions from the dropping test in sections 1 and 2.

Approccio multidisciplinare per le valutazioni ambientali: Problematiche e sinergie in un uso combinato delle metodologie life cycle assessment (lca) e risk assessment (ra)

In questo lavoro di tesi si è elaborato un quadro di riferimento per l’utilizzo combinato di due metodologie di valutazione di impatti LCA e RA, per tecnologie emergenti. L’originalità dello studio sta nell’aver proposto e anche applicato il quadro di riferimento ad un caso studio, in particolare ad una tecnologia innovativa di refrigerazione, basata su nanofluidi (NF), sviluppata da partner del progetto Europeo Nanohex che hanno collaborato all’elaborazione degli studi soprattutto per quanto riguarda l’inventario dei dati necessari. La complessità dello studio è da ritrovare tanto nella difficile integrazione di due metodologie nate per scopi differenti e strutturate per assolvere a quegli scopi, quanto nel settore di applicazione che seppur in forte espansione ha delle forti lacune di informazioni circa processi di produzione e comportamento delle sostanze. L’applicazione è stata effettuata sulla produzione di nanofluido (NF) di allumina secondo due vie produttive (single-stage e two-stage) per valutare e confrontare gli impatti per la salute umana e l’ambiente. Occorre specificare che il LCA è stato quantitativo ma non ha considerato gli impatti dei NM nelle categorie di tossicità. Per quanto concerne il RA è stato sviluppato uno studio di tipo qualitativo, a causa della problematica di carenza di parametri tossicologici e di esposizione su citata avente come focus la categoria dei lavoratori, pertanto è stata fatta l’assunzione che i rilasci in ambiente durante la fase di produzione sono trascurabili. Per il RA qualitativo è stato utilizzato un SW specifico, lo Stoffenmanger-Nano che rende possibile la prioritizzazione dei rischi associati ad inalazione in ambiente di lavoro. Il quadro di riferimento prevede una procedura articolata in quattro fasi: DEFINIZIONE SISTEMA TECNOLOGICO, RACCOLTA DATI, VALUTAZIONE DEL RISCHIO E QUANTIFICAZIONE DEGLI IMPATTI, INTERPRETAZIONE.

Gilded bronze conservation: assessment of protective treatments by accelerated ageing and of treatment removal procedures by laser cleaning

In the current study, we analyze the effectiveness of an organosilane compound, 3-mercapto-propyl-tri-methoxy-silane (abbreviated PropS-SH), in the corrosion protection of fire-gilded bronzes. Firstly, the coating was applied on as-gilded bronze. Subsequently, it was also applied on pre-patinated bronze, because the substrate on which protective coatings are applied in real conservation interventions are corroded artifacts (cleaning procedures never remove all the corrosion products). Aiming to obtain results that simulate the situation of real artifacts, a dropping test that simulates outdoor exposure in runoff conditions (unsheltered areas of monuments) was employed in order to prepatinate the gilded bronze samples, which are the substrate for applying the protective coating. The preparation of the samples by applying the protective coating was performed in collaboration with the Corrosion Studies Centre “Aldo Daccò” from Ferrara University. After the artificial exposure cycles the samples underwent investigations through a variety of spectroscopic methods including SEM, Raman, FIB, AAS and color measurements. In order to evaluate the possible removal of the organosilane coating, protected samples were subjected to laser cleaning tests and characterized by SEM/EDS so as to assess the changes in composition and morphology of the treated surfaces. The laser cleaning treatment was performed at the Institute of Applied Physics “Nello Carrara” (CNR Sesto Fiorentino (FI)). The morphology and chemical composition of the samples was observed before and after the operation in order to obtain information about the fluence and type of laser which are best suited to the removal of this type of coating.

Assessment of in vivo genotoxicity of the rodent carcinogen furan: evaluation of DNA damage and induction of micronuclei in mouse splenocytes

In recent years, several surveys have highlighted the presence of the rodent carcinogen furan in a variety of food items. Even though the evidence of carcinogenicity of furan is unequivocal, the underlying mechanism has not been fully elucidated. In particular, the role of genotoxicity in furan carcinogenicity is still not clear, even though this information is considered pivotal for the assessment of the risk posed by the presence of low doses of furan in food. In this work, the genotoxic potential of furan in vivo has been investigated in mice, under exposure conditions similar to those associated with cancer onset in the National Toxicology Program long-term bioassay. To this aim, male B6C3F1 mice were treated by gavage for 4 weeks with 2, 4, 8 and 15 mg furan/kg b.w./day. Spleen was selected as the target organ for genotoxicity assessment, in view of the capability of quiescent splenocytes to accumulate DNA damage induced by repeat dose exposure. The induction of primary DNA damage in splenocytes was evaluated by alkaline single-cell gel electrophoresis (comet assay) and by the immunofluorescence detection of foci of phosphorylated histone H2AX (gamma-H2AX). The presence of cross-links was probed in a modified comet assay, in which cells were irradiated in vitro with gamma-rays before electrophoresis. Chromosome damage was quantitated through the detection of micronuclei in mitogen-stimulated splenocytes using the cytokinesis-block method. Micronucleus induction was also assessed with a modified protocol, using the repair inhibitor 1-beta-arabinofuranosyl-cytosine to convert single-strand breaks in micronuclei. The results obtained show a significant (P < 0.01) increase of gamma-H2AX foci in mitogen-stimulated splenocytes of mice treated with 8 and 15 mg furan/kg b.w. and a statistically significant (P < 0.001) increases of micronuclei in binucleated splenocytes cultured in vitro. Conversely, no effect of in vivo exposure to furan was observed when freshly isolated quiescent splenocytes were analysed by immunofluorescence and in comet assays, both with standard and radiation-modified protocols. These results indicate that the in vivo exposure to furan gives rise to pre-mutagenic DNA damage in resting splenocytes, which remains undetectable until it is converted in frank lesions during the S-phase upon mitogen stimulation. The resulting DNA strand breaks are visualized by the increase in gamma-H2AX foci and may originate micronuclei at the subsequent mitosis.

Randomized trial of a computerized coronary heart disease risk assessment tool in HIV-infected patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy

Exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) can lead to important metabolic changes and increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Computerized clinical decision support systems have been advocated to improve the management of patients at risk for CHD but it is unclear whether such systems reduce patients' risk for CHD.

Virtual histology assessment of cardiac allograft vasculopathy following introduction of everolimus--results of a multicenter trial

In this 12-month multicenter Scandinavian study, 78 maintenance heart transplant (HTx) recipients randomized to everolimus with reduced calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) exposure or continued standard CNI-therapy underwent matched virtual histology (VH) examination to evaluate morphological progression of cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV). Parallel measurement of a range of inflammatory markers was also performed. A similar rate of quantitative CAV progression was observed in the everolimus (n = 30) and standard CNI group (n = 48) (plaque index 1.9 ± 3.8% and 1.6 ± 3.9%, respectively; p = 0.65). However, VH analysis revealed a significant increase in calcified (2.4 ± 4.0 vs. 0.3 ± 3.1%; p = 0.02) and necrotic component (6.5 ± 8.5 vs. 1.1 ± 8.6%; p = 0.01) among everolimus patients compared to controls. The increase in necrotic and calcified components was most prominent in everolimus patients with time since HTx >5.1 years and was accompanied by a significant increase in levels of von Willebrand (vWF) factor (p = 0.04) and vascular cell adhesion molecule (VCAM) (p = 0.03). Conversion to everolimus and reduced CNI is associated with a significant increase in calcified and necrotic intimal components and is more prominent in patients with a longer time since HTx. A significant increase in vWF and VCAM accompanied these qualitative changes and the prognostic implication of these findings requires further investigation.

Screening and testing for endocrine disruption in fish-biomarkers as "signposts," not "traffic lights," in risk assessment

Biomarkers are currently best used as mechanistic "signposts" rather than as "traffic lights" in the environmental risk assessment of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs). In field studies, biomarkers of exposure [e.g., vitellogenin (VTG) induction in male fish] are powerful tools for tracking single substances and mixtures of concern. Biomarkers also provide linkage between field and laboratory data, thereby playing an important role in directing the need for and design of fish chronic tests for EDCs. It is the adverse effect end points (e.g., altered development, growth, and/or reproduction) from such tests that are most valuable for calculating adverseNOEC (no observed effect concentration) or adverseEC10 (effective concentration for a 10% response) and subsequently deriving predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs). With current uncertainties, biomarkerNOEC or biomarkerEC10 data should not be used in isolation to derive PNECs. In the future, however, there may be scope to increasingly use biomarker data in environmental decision making, if plausible linkages can be made across levels of organization such that adverse outcomes might be envisaged relative to biomarker responses. For biomarkers to fulfil their potential, they should be mechanistically relevant and reproducible (as measured by interlaboratory comparisons of the same protocol). VTG is a good example of such a biomarker in that it provides an insight to the mode of action (estrogenicity) that is vital to fish reproductive health. Interlaboratory reproducibility data for VTG are also encouraging; recent comparisons (using the same immunoassay protocol) have provided coefficients of variation (CVs) of 38-55% (comparable to published CVs of 19-58% for fish survival and growth end points used in regulatory test guidelines). While concern over environmental xenoestrogens has led to the evaluation of reproductive biomarkers in fish, it must be remembered that many substances act via diverse mechanisms of action such that the environmental risk assessment for EDCs is a broad and complex issue. Also, biomarkers such as secondary sexual characteristics, gonadosomatic indices, plasma steroids, and gonadal histology have significant potential for guiding interspecies assessments of EDCs and designing fish chronic tests. To strengthen the utility of EDC biomarkers in fish, we need to establish a historical control database (also considering natural variability) to help differentiate between statistically detectable versus biologically significant responses. In conclusion, as research continues to develop a range of useful EDC biomarkers, environmental decision-making needs to move forward, and it is proposed that the "biomarkers as signposts" approach is a pragmatic way forward in the current risk assessment of EDCs.

[Radiation exposure in (90)Y-Zevalin therapy: results of a prospective multicentre trial]

AIM of this study was the assessment of the radiation exposure from preparation and application of (90)Y-Zevalin, the measurement of the dose rate at the patient, the exposure of family members as well as the determination of the activity concentration in urine of patients. METHODS: Overall data from 31 therapeutic administrations carried out in four institutions were evaluated. During preparation and application of (90)Y-Zevalin the finger exposures of radiochemists, technicians, and physicians were measured. The dose rate of the patient was measured immediately after radioimmunotherapy. In patients treated in a nuclear medicine therapy unit, urine was collected over a two day period and the corresponding activity was determined. Family members of outpatients were asked to wear a dosimeter over a seven day period. RESULTS: During the preparation we found a maximum skin dose of 6 mSv at the average, and during application of 3 mSv, respectively. After administration of (90)Y the dose rate was 0.4 +/- 0.1 microSv/h at 2 m distance. Urine measurements yielded a cumulated 24 h excretion of 3.9 +/- 1.4% and 4.4 +/- 1.4% within 48 h, respectively, that is equivalent to 43 +/- 18 and 50 +/- 20 MBq of (90)Y, respectively. Family members received a radiation exposure of 40 +/- 14 microSv over seven days. CONCLUSION: During preparation and application of (90)Y-Zevalin appropriate radiation shielding is necessary. For family members as well as nursing staff no additional special radiation protection measures beyond those being common for other nuclear medicine procedures are necessary.

Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models for Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortality

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by taking into account the variability within and across cities. We perform the calculations with respect to several random effects distributions (normal, t-student, and mixture of normal), thus relaxing the common assumption of a two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model. We assess the sensitivity of the results to: 1) lag structure for ozone exposure; 2) degree of adjustment for long-term trends; 3) inclusion of other pollutants in the model;4) heat waves; 5) random effects distributions; and 6) prior hyperparameters. On average across cities, we found that a 10ppb increase in summer ozone level for every day in the previous week is associated with 1.25 percent increase in CVDRESP mortality (95% posterior regions: 0.47, 2.03). The relative rate estimates are also positive and statistically significant at lags 0, 1, and 2. We found that associations between summer ozone and CVDRESP mortality are sensitive to the confounding adjustment for PM_10, but are robust to: 1) the adjustment for long-term trends, other gaseous pollutants (NO_2, SO_2, and CO); 2) the distributional assumptions at the second stage of the hierarchical model; and 3) the prior distributions on all unknown parameters. Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models and their application to the NMMAPS data allow us estimation of an acute health effect associated with exposure to ambient air pollution in the last few days on average across several locations. The application of these methods and the systematic assessment of the sensitivity of findings to model assumptions provide important epidemiological evidence for future air quality regulations.

TRENDS IN PARTICULATE MATTER AND MORTALITY: AN APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF UNMEASURED CONFOUNDING

We propose a method for diagnosing confounding bias under a model which links a spatially and temporally varying exposure and health outcome. We decompose the association into orthogonal components, corresponding to distinct spatial and temporal scales of variation. If the model fully controls for confounding, the exposure effect estimates should be equal at the different temporal and spatial scales. We show that the overall exposure effect estimate is a weighted average of the scale-specific exposure effect estimates. We use this approach to estimate the association between monthly averages of fine particles (PM2.5) over the preceding 12 months and monthly mortality rates in 113 U.S. counties from 2000-2002. We decompose the association between PM2.5 and mortality into two components: 1) the association between “national trends” in PM2.5 and mortality; and 2) the association between “local trends,” defined as county-specificdeviations from national trends. This second component provides evidence as to whether counties having steeper declines in PM2.5 also have steeper declines in mortality relative to their national trends. We find that the exposure effect estimates are different at these two spatio-temporalscales, which raises concerns about confounding bias. We believe that the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the national scale is more likely to be confounded than is the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the local scale. If the association at the national scale is set aside, there is little evidence of an association between 12-month exposure to PM2.5 and mortality.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.