SN 2010LP - A type IA supernova from a violent merger of two carbon-oxygen white dwarfs

SN 2010lp is a subluminous Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) with slowly evolving lightcurves. Moreover, it is the only subluminous SN Ia observed so far that shows narrow emission lines of [O I] in late-time spectra, indicating unburned oxygen close to the center of the ejecta. Most explosion models for SNe Ia cannot explain the narrow [O I] emission. Here, we present hydrodynamic explosion and radiative transfer calculations showing that the violent merger of two carbon-oxygen white dwarfs of 0.9 and 0.76 M adequately reproduces the early-time observables of SN 2010lp. Moreover, our model predicts oxygen close to the center of the explosion ejecta, a pre-requisite for narrow [O I] emission in nebular spectra as observed in SN 2010lp. © 2013. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.

Synthetic light curves and spectra for three-dimensional delayed-detonation models of type ia supernovae

In a companion paper, Seitenzahl et al. have presented a set of three-dimensional delayed detonation models for thermonuclear explosions of near-Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarfs (WDs). Here,we present multidimensional radiative transfer simulations that provide synthetic light curves and spectra for those models. The model sequence explores both changes in the strength of the deflagration phase (which is controlled by the ignition configuration in our models) and the WD central density. In agreement with previous studies, we find that the strength of the deflagration significantly affects the explosion and the observables. Variations in the central density also have an influence on both brightness and colour, but overall it is a secondary parameter in our set of models. In many respects, the models yield a good match to the observed properties of normal Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia): peak brightness, rise/decline time-scales and synthetic spectra are all in reasonable agreement. There are, however, several differences. In particular, the models are systematically too red around maximum light, manifest spectral line velocities that are a little too high and yield I-band light curves that do not match observations. Although some of these discrepancies may simply relate to approximations made in the modelling, some pose real challenges to the models. If viewed as a complete sequence, our models do not reproduce the observed light-curve width- luminosity relation (WLR) of SNe Ia: all our models show rather similar B-band decline rates, irrespective of peak brightness. This suggests that simple variations in the strength of the deflagration phase in Chandrasekhar-mass deflagration-to-detonation models do not readily explain the observed diversity of normal SNe Ia. This may imply that some other parameter within the Chandrasekhar-mass paradigm is key to the WLR, or that a substantial fraction of normal SNe Ia arise from an alternative explosion scenario.

'Super-Chandrasekhar' Type Ia Supernovae at nebular epochs

We present a first systematic comparison of superluminous Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at late epochs, including previously unpublished photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN 2007if, SN 2009dc and SNF20080723-012. Photometrically, the objects of our sample show a diverse late-time behaviour, some of them fading quite rapidly after a light-curve break at ∼ 150-200 d. The latter is likely the result of flux redistribution into the infrared, possibly caused by dust formation, rather than a true bolometric effect. Nebular spectra of superluminous SNe Ia are characterized by weak or absent [Fe III] emission, pointing at a low ejecta ionization state as a result of high densities. To constrain the ejecta and Ni masses of superluminous SNe Ia, we compare the observed bolometric light curve of SN 2009dc with synthetic model light curves, focusing on the radioactive tail after ∼60 d. Models with enough Ni to explain the light-curve peak by radioactive decay, and at the same time sufficient mass to keep the ejecta velocities low, fail to reproduce the observed light-curve tail of SN 2009dc because of too much γ -ray trapping.We instead propose a model with ∼1M of Ni and ∼2 M of ejecta, which may be interpreted as the explosion of a Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarf (WD) enshrouded by 0.6-0.7 M of C/O-rich material, as it could result from a merger of two massive C/O WDs. This model reproduces the late light curve of SN 2009dc well. A flux deficit at peak may be compensated by light from the interaction of the ejecta with the surrounding material.

Periodontitis and systemic diseases:A record of discussions of working group 4 of the Joint EFP/AAP Workshop on Periodontitis and Systemic Diseases

Background There has been an explosion in research into possible associations between periodontitis and various systemic diseases and conditions. Aim To review the evidence for associations between periodontitis and various systemic diseases and conditions, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, chronic kidney disease, rheumatoid arthritis, cognitive impairment, obesity, metabolic syndrome and cancer, and to document headline discussions of the state of each field. Periodontal associations with diabetes, cardiovascular disease and adverse pregnancy outcomes were not discussed by working group 4. Results Working group 4 recognized that the studies performed to date were largely cross-sectional or case-control with few prospective cohort studies and no randomized clinical trials. The best current evidence suggests that periodontitis is characterized by both infection and pro-inflammatory events, which variously manifest within the systemic diseases and disorders discussed. Diseases with at least minimal evidence of an association with periodontitis include COPD, pneumonia, chronic kidney disease, rheumatoid arthritis, cognitive impairment, obesity, metabolic syndrome and cancer. The working group agreed that there is insufficient evidence to date to infer causal relationships with the exception that organisms originating in the oral microbiome can cause lung infections. Conclusions The group was unanimous in their opinion that the reported associations do not imply causality, and establishment of causality will require new studies that fulfil the Bradford Hill or equivalent criteria. Precise and community-agreed case definitions of periodontal disease states must be implemented systematically to enable consistent and clearer interpretations of studies of the relationship to systemic diseases. The members of the working group were unanimous in their opinion that to develop data that best inform clinicians, investigators and the public, studies should focus on robust disease outcomes and avoid surrogate endpoints. It was concluded that because of the relative immaturity of the body of evidence for each of the purported relationships, the field is wide open and the gaps in knowledge are large. © 2013 European Federation of Periodontology and American Academy of Periodontology.

Structural Breaks in Mortality Models and their Consequences

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and, hence, life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and, hence, quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age and cohort, and forecast these trends into the future using standard statistical methods. The modeling approaches used failed to capture the effects of any structural change in the trend and, thus, potentially produced incorrect forecasts of future mortality rates. In this paper, we look at a range of leading stochastic models of mortality and test for structural breaks in the trend time series.

Interacting supernovae from photoionization-confined shells around red supergiant stars

Betelgeuse, a nearby red supergiant, is a runaway star with a powerful stellar wind that drives a bow shock into its surroundings. This picture has been challenged by the discovery of a dense and almost static shell that is three times closer to the star than the bow shock and has been decelerated by some external force. The two physically distinct structures cannot both be formed by the hydrodynamic interaction of the wind with the interstellar medium. Here we report that a model in which Betelgeuse's wind is photoionized by radiation from external sources can explain the static shell without requiring a new understanding of the bow shock. Pressure from the photoionized wind generates a standing shock in the neutral part of the wind and forms an almost static, photoionization-confined shell. Other red supergiants should have significantly more massive shells than Betelgeuse, because the photoionization-confined shell traps up to 35 per cent of all mass lost during the red supergiant phase, confining this gas close to the star until it explodes. After the supernova explosion, massive shells dramatically affect the supernova lightcurve, providing a natural explanation for the many supernovae that have signatures of circumstellar interaction.

Identifying Structural Breaks in Stochastic Mortality Models

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of utmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies, and government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and hence life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data to anticipate future life expectancy and hence quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age, and cohort and forecast these trends into the future by using standard statistical methods. These approaches rely on the assumption that structural breaks in the trend do not exist or do not have a significant impact on the mortality forecasts. Recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive investigation of the presence or of structural breaks in a selection of leading mortality models. We find that structural breaks are present in the majority of cases. In particular, we find that allowing for structural break, where present, improves the forecast result significantly.

Superluminous supernovae from PESSTO

We present optical spectra and light curves for three hydrogen-poor superluminous supernovae followed by the Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects (PESSTO). Time series spectroscopy from a fewdays aftermaximum light to 100 d later shows them to be fairly typical of this class, with spectra dominated by Ca II, MgII, FeII, and Si II, which evolve slowly over most of the post-peak photospheric phase. We determine bolometric light curves and apply simple fitting tools, based on the diffusion of energy input by magnetar spin-down, Ni-56 decay, and collision of the ejecta with an opaque circumstellar shell. We investigate how the heterogeneous light curves of our sample (combined with others from the literature) can help to constrain the possible mechanisms behind these events. We have followed these events to beyond 100-200 d after peak, to disentangle host galaxy light from fading supernova flux and to differentiate between the models, which predict diverse behaviour at this phase. Models powered by radioactivity require unrealistic parameters to reproduce the observed light curves, as found by previous studies. Both magnetar heating and circumstellar interaction still appear to be viable candidates. A large diversity is emerging in observed tail-phase luminosities, with magnetar models failing in some cases to predict the rapid drop in flux. This would suggest either that magnetars are not responsible, or that the X-ray flux from the magnetar wind is not fully trapped. The light curve of one object shows a distinct rebrightening at around 100 d after maximum light. We argue that this could result either from multiple shells of circumstellar material, or from a magnetar ionization front breaking out of the ejecta.

Multi-Dimensional Simulations of the Expanding Supernova Remnant of SN 1987A

The expanding remnant from SN 1987A is an excellent laboratory for investigating the physics of supernovae explosions. There is still a large number of outstanding questions, such as the reason for the asymmetric radio morphology, the structure of the pre-supernova environment, and the efficiency of particle acceleration at the supernova shock. We explore these questions using three-dimensional simulations of the expanding remnant between days 820 and 10,000 after the supernova. We combine a hydrodynamical simulation with semi-analytic treatments of diffusive shock acceleration and magnetic field amplification to derive radio emission as part of an inverse problem. Simulations show that an asymmetric explosion, combined with magnetic field amplification at the expanding shock, is able to replicate the persistent one-sided radio morphology of the remnant. We use an asymmetric Truelove & McKee progenitor with an envelope mass of 10 M-circle dot and an energy of 1.5 x 10(44) J. A termination shock in the progenitor's stellar wind at a distance of 0 ''.43-0 ''.51 provides a good fit to the turn on of radio emission around day 1200. For the H II region, a minimum distance of 0 ''.63 +/- 0 ''.01 and maximum particle number density of (7.11 +/- 1.78) x 10(7) m(-3) produces a good fit to the evolving average radius and velocity of the expanding shocks from day 2000 to day 7000 after explosion. The model predicts a noticeable reduction, and possibly a temporary reversal, in the asymmetric radio morphology of the remnant after day 7000, when the forward shock left the eastern lobe of the equatorial ring.

SN 2012ec: mass of the progenitor from PESSTO follow-up of the photospheric phase

We present the results of a photometric and spectroscopic monitoring campaign of SN 2012ec, which exploded in the spiral galaxy NGC 1084, during the photospheric phase. The photometric light curve exhibits a plateau with luminosity L = 0.9 x 10(42) erg s(-1) and duration similar to 90 d, which is somewhat shorter than standard Type II-P supernovae (SNe). We estimate the nickel mass M(Ni-56) = 0.040 +/- 0.015 M-circle dot from the luminosity at the beginning of the radioactive tail of the light curve. The explosion parameters of SN 2012ec were estimated from the comparison of the bolometric light curve and the observed temperature and velocity evolution of the ejecta with predictions from hydrodynamical models. We derived an envelope mass of 12.6 M-circle dot, an initial progenitor radius of 1.6 x 10(13) cm and an explosion energy of 1.2 foe. These estimates agree with an independent study of the progenitor star identified in pre-explosion images, for which an initial mass of M = 14-22 M-circle dot was determined. We have applied the same analysis to two other Type II-P SNe (SNe 2012aw and 2012A), and carried out a comparison with the properties of SN 2012ec derived in this paper. We find a reasonable agreement between the masses of the progenitors obtained from pre-explosion images and masses derived from hydrodynamical models. We estimate the distance to SN 2012ec with the standardized candle method (SCM) and compare it with other estimates based on other primary and secondary indicators. SNe 2012A, 2012aw and 2012ec all follow the standard relations for the SCM for the use of Type II-P SNe as distance indicators.

Supersolar Ni/Fe production in the Type IIP SN 2012ec

SN 2012ec is a Type IIP supernova (SN) with a progenitor detection and comprehensive photospheric phase observational coverage. Here, we present Very Large Telescope and Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects observations of this SN in the nebular phase. We model the nebular [O I] lambda lambda 6300, 6364 lines and find their strength to suggest a progenitor main-sequence mass of 13-15 M-circle dot. SN2012ec is unique among hydrogen-rich SNe in showing a distinct line of stable nickel [Ni II] lambda 7378. This line is produced by Ni-58, a nuclear burning ash whose abundance is a sensitive tracer of explosive burning conditions. Using spectral synthesis modelling, we use the relative strengths of [Ni II] lambda 7378 and [Fe II] lambda 7155 (the progenitor of which is Ni-56) to derive a Ni/Fe production ratio of 0.20 +/- 0.07 (by mass), which is a factor 3.4 +/- 1.2 times the solar value. High production of stable nickel is confirmed by a strong [Ni II] 1.939 mu m line. This is the third reported case of a core-collapse SN producing a Ni/Fe ratio far above the solar value, which has implications for core-collapse explosion theory and galactic chemical evolution models.

Turbulent amplification of magnetic fields in laboratory laser-produced shock waves

X-ray and radio observations of the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A reveal the presence of magnetic fields about 100 times stronger than those in the surrounding interstellar medium. Field coincident with the outer shock probably arises through a nonlinear feedback process involving cosmic rays. The origin of the large magnetic field in the interior of the remnant is less clear but it is presumably stretched and amplified by turbulent motions. Turbulence may be generated by hydrodynamic instability at the contact discontinuity between the supernova ejecta and the circumstellar gas9. However, optical observations of Cassiopeia A indicate that the ejecta are interacting with a highly inhomogeneous, dense circumstellar cloud bank formed before the supernova explosion. Here we investigate the possibility that turbulent amplification is induced when the outer shock overtakes dense clumps in the ambient medium. We report laboratory experiments that indicate the magnetic field is amplified when the shock interacts with a plastic grid. We show that our experimental results can explain the observed synchrotron emission in the interior of the remnant. The experiment also provides a laboratory example of magnetic field amplification by turbulence in plasmas, a physical process thought to occur in many astrophysical phenomena.

Detecting the progenitors of core collapse supernovae

The masses and the evolutionary states of the progenitors of core-collapse supernovae are not well constrained by direct observations. Stellar evolution theory generally predicts that massive stars with initial masses less than about 30M_sol should undergo core-collapse when they are cool M-type supergiants. However the only two detections of a SN progenitor before explosion are SN1987A and SN1993J, and neither of these was an M-type supergiant. Attempting to identify the progenitors of supernovae is a difficult task, as precisely predicting the time of explosion of a massive star is impossible for obvious reasons. There are several different types of supernovae which have different spectral and photometric evolution, and how exactly these are related to the evolutionary states of the progenitor stars is not currently known. I will describe a novel project which may allow the direct identification of core-collapse supernovae progenitors on pre-explosion images of resolved, nearby galaxies. This project is now possible with the excellent image archives maintained by several facilities and will be enhanced by the new initiatives to create Virtual Observatories, the earliest of which ASTROVIRTEL is already producing results.

Massive stars exploding in a He-rich circumstellar medium - VI. Observations of two distant Type Ibn supernova candidates discovered by La Silla-QUEST

We present optical observations of the peculiar stripped-envelope supernovae (SNe) LSQ12btw and LSQ13ccw discovered by the La Silla-QUEST survey. LSQ12btw reaches an absolute peak magnitude of M-g = -19.3 +/- 0.2, and shows an asymmetric light curve. Stringent pre-discovery limits constrain its rise time to maximum light to less than 4 d, with a slower post-peak luminosity decline, similar to that experienced by the prototypical SN Ibn 2006jc. LSQ13ccw is somewhat different: while it also exhibits a very fast rise to maximum, it reaches a fainter absolute peak magnitude (M-g =-18.4 +/- 0.2), and experiences an extremely rapid post-peak decline similar to that observed in the peculiar SN Ib 2002bj. A stringent pre-discovery limit and an early marginal detection of LSQ13ccw allow us to determine the explosion time with an uncertainty of +/- 1 d. The spectra of LSQ12btw show the typical narrow He I emission lines characterizing Type Ibn SNe, suggesting that the SN ejecta are interacting with He-rich circumstellar material. The He I lines in the spectra of LSQ13ccw exhibit weak narrow emissions superposed on broad components. An unresolved H alpha line is also detected, suggesting a tentative Type Ibn/IIn classification. As for other SNe Ibn, we argue that LSQ12btw and LSQ13ccw likely result from the explosions of Wolf-Rayet stars that experienced instability phases prior to core collapse. We inspect the host galaxies of SNe Ibn, and we show that all of them but one are hosted in spiral galaxies, likely in environments spanning a wide metallicity range.

SN 2009ib: a Type II-P supernova with an unusually long plateau

We present optical and near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy of SN 2009ib, a Type II-P supernova in NGC 1559. This object has moderate brightness, similar to those of the intermediate-luminosity SNe 2008in and 2009N. Its plateau phase is unusually long, lasting for about 130 d after explosion. The spectra are similar to those of the subluminous SN 2002gd, with moderate expansion velocities. We estimate the Ni-56 mass produced as 0.046 +/- A 0.015 M-aS (TM). We determine the distance to SN 2009ib using both the expanding photosphere method (EPM) and the standard candle method. We also apply EPM to SN 1986L, a Type II-P SN that exploded in the same galaxy. Combining the results of different methods, we conclude the distance to NGC 1559 as D = 19.8 +/- A 3.0 Mpc. We examine archival, pre-explosion images of the field taken with the Hubble Space Telescope, and find a faint source at the position of the SN, which has a yellow colour [(V - I)(0) = 0.85 mag]. Assuming it is a single star, we estimate its initial mass as M-ZAMS = 20 M-aS (TM). We also examine the possibility, that instead of the yellow source the progenitor of SN 2009ib is a red supergiant star too faint to be detected. In this case, we estimate the upper limit for the initial zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass of the progenitor to be similar to 14-17 M-aS (TM). In addition, we infer the physical properties of the progenitor at the explosion via hydrodynamical modelling of the observables, and estimate the total energy as similar to 0.55 x 10(51) erg, the pre-explosion radius as similar to 400 R-aS (TM), and the ejected envelope mass as similar to 15 M-aS (TM), which implies that the mass of the progenitor before explosion was similar to 16.5-17 M-aS (TM).