Uncertainty, generalization, and neural representation of relevant variables for decision making

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Computational Biology.

UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE HUMAN BRAIN

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Neuroscience

Importance of decision-making in a purchasing context – DPS Case Study

This work project has the objective of exploring the importance of making good decisions on supplier selection, so that the purchasing department can contribute to the success of a company. For that it is presented a short bibliography review of the latest insights that were found relevant, on the subjects of purchasing, technology, outsourcing, supplier selection and decision-making techniques. For a better understating on how to deal with a decision-making situation, a case study is also presented: Digital Printing Solutions (DPS) is a Portuguese company that provides complete and integrated printing solutions and has been planning to contract a software supplier. DPS has no formal supplier-selection model and it has to choose between 2 suppliers. The case study was solved using the M-MACBETH software. I have found that complex decisions-making situations can be easily overcome by using the M-MACBETH decision model. Moreover, the usage of a model, instead of decision that follows no formal procedure, provides the decision maker with insights that can be useful to negotiate with the supplier.

Uncertainty in olfactory decision-making

Relationships between accuracy and speed of decision-making, or speed-accuracy tradeoffs (SAT), have been extensively studied. However, the range of SAT observed varies widely across studies for reasons that are unclear. Several explanations have been proposed, including motivation or incentive for speed vs. accuracy, species and modality but none of these hypotheses has been directly tested. An alternative explanation is that the different degrees of SAT are related to the nature of the task being performed. Here, we addressed this problem by comparing SAT in two odor-guided decision tasks that were identical except for the nature of the task uncertainty: an odor mixture categorization task, where the distinguishing information is reduced by making the stimuli more similar to each other; and an odor identification task in which the information is reduced by lowering the intensity over a range of three log steps. (...)

Validation of the Portuguese version of the Evidence-Based Practice Questionnaire

OBJECTIVES: To describe the process of translation and linguistic and cultural validation of the Evidence Based Practice Questionnaire for the Portuguese context: Questionário de Eficácia Clínica e Prática Baseada em Evidências (QECPBE). METHOD: A methodological and cross-sectional study was developed. The translation and back translation was performed according to traditional standards. Principal Components Analysis with orthogonal rotation according to the Varimax method was used to verify the QECPBE's psychometric characteristics, followed by confirmatory factor analysis. Internal consistency was determined by Cronbach's alpha. Data were collected between December 2013 and February 2014. RESULTS: 358 nurses delivering care in a hospital facility in North of Portugal participated in the study. QECPBE contains 20 items and three subscales: Practice (α=0.74); Attitudes (α=0.75); Knowledge/Skills and Competencies (α=0.95), presenting an overall internal consistency of α=0.74. The tested model explained 55.86% of the variance and presented good fit: χ2(167)=520.009; p = 0.0001; χ2df=3.114; CFI=0.908; GFI=0.865; PCFI=0.798; PGFI=0.678; RMSEA=0.077 (CI90%=0.07-0.08). CONCLUSION: confirmatory factor analysis revealed the questionnaire is valid and appropriate to be used in the studied context.

Normal aging and decision-making: a systematic review of the literature of the last 10 years

Objective Conduct a systematic review to investigate whether healthy elderly have deficits in the decision-making process when compared to the young. Methods We performed a systematic search on SciELO, Lilacs, PsycINFO, Scopus and PubMed database with keywords decision making and aging (according to the description of Mesh terms) at least 10 years. Results We found nine studies from different countries, who investigated 441 young and 377 elderly. All studies used the IOWA Gambling Task as a way of benchmarking the process of decision making. The analysis showed that 78% of the articles did not have significant differences between groups. However, 100% of the studies that assessed learning did find relevant differences. Furthermore, studies that observed the behavior of individuals in the face of losses and gains, 60% of articles showed that the elderly has more disadvantageous choices throughout the task. Conclusion: The consulted literature showed no consensus on the existence of differences in performance of the decision-making process between old and young, but it is observed that the elderly has deficits in learning and a tendency to fewer advantageous choices.

Why do we need randomized and epidemiological studies on cardiovascular disease? Evidence-based cardiology VII

Over the last two decades the results of randomized clinical studies, which are powerful aids for correctly assessing therapeutical strategies, have consolidated cardiological practice. In addition, scientifically interesting hypotheses have been generated through the results of epidemiological studies. Properly conducted randomized studies without systematic errors and with statistical power adequate for demonstrating moderate and reasonable benefits in relevant clinical outcomes have provided reliable and strong results altering clinical practice, thus providing adequate treatment for patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). The dissemination and use of evidence-based medicine in treating coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure (HF), and in prevention will prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths annually in developed and developing countries. CVD is responsible for approximately 12 million deaths annually throughout the world, and approximately 60% of these deaths occur in developing countries. During recent years, an increase in mortality and morbidity rates due to CVD has occurred in developing countries. This increase is an indication that an epidemiological (demographic, economical, and health-related) transition is taking place in developing countries and this transition implies a global epidemic of CVD, which will require wide-ranging and globally effective strategies for prevention. The identification of conventional and emerging risk factors for CVD, as well as their management in high-risk individuals, has contributed to the decrease in the mortality rate due to CVD. Through a national collaboration, several multi-center and multinational randomized and epidemiological studies have been carried out throughout Brazil, thus contributing not only to a generalized scientific growth in different Brazilian hospitals but also to the consolidation of an increasingly evidence-based clinical practice.

Body Mass Index: A Scientific Evidence-Based Inquiry

OBJECTVE: To objectively and critically assess body mass index and to propose alternatives for relating body weight and height that are evidence-based and that eliminate or reduce the limitations of the body mass index. METHODS: To analyze the relations involving weight and height, we used 2 databases as follows: 1) children and adolescents from Brazil, the United States, and Switzerland; and 2) 538 university students. We performed mathematical simulations with height data ranging from 115 to 190 cm and weight data ranging from 25 to 105 kg. We selected 3 methods to analyze the relation of weight and height as follows: body mass index - weight (kg)/height (m²); reciprocal of the ponderal index - height (cm)/weight1/3 (kg); and ectomorphy. Using the normal range from 20 to 25 kg/m² for the body mass index in the reference height of 170 cm, we identified the corresponding ranges of 41 to 44 cm/kg1/3 for the reciprocal of the ponderal index, and of 1.45 to 3.60 for ectomorphy. RESULTS: The mathematical simulations showed a strong association among the 3 methods with an absolute concordance to a height of 170 cm, but with a tendency towards discrepancy in the normal ranges, which had already been observed for the heights of 165 and 175 cm. This made the direct convertibility between the indices unfeasible. The reciprocal of the ponderal index and ectomorphy with their cut points comprised a larger age range in children and adolescents and a wider and more central range in the university students, both for the reported (current) and desired weights. CONCLUSION: The reciprocal of the ponderal index and ectomorphy are stronger and are more mathematically logical than body mass index; in addition, they may be applied with the same cut points for normal from the age of 5 ½ years on.

Analyzing university spin-offs and supporting decision making in new venture creation

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2008

Incentive structures in economic experiments : a neuroeconomic analysis of decision making under risk

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2013