Assessing 1D Loss Models for the Off-Design Performance Prediction of Automotive Turbocharger Compressors

Single-Zone modelling is used to assess three 1D impeller loss model collections. An automotive turbocharger centrifugal compressor is used for evaluation. The individual 1D losses are presented relative to each other at three tip speeds to provide a visual description of each author’s perception of the relative importance of each loss. The losses are compared with their resulting prediction of pressure ratio and efficiency, which is further compared with test data; upon comparison, a combination of the 1D loss collections is identified as providing the best performance prediction. 3D CFD simulations have also been carried out for the same geometry using a single passage model. A method of extracting 1D losses from CFD is described and utilised to draw further comparisons with the 1D losses. A 1D scroll volute model has been added to the single passage CFD results; good agreement with the test data is achieved. Short-comings in the existing 1D loss models are identified as a result of the comparisons with 3D CFD losses. Further comparisons are drawn between the predicted 1D data, 3D CFD simulation results, and the test data using a nondimensional method to highlight where the current errors exist in the 1D prediction.

An Evaluation of 1D Loss Model Collections for the Off-Design Performance Prediction of an Automotive Turbocharger Compressor

Abstract. Single-zone modelling is used to assess different collections of impeller 1D loss models. Three collections of loss models have been identified in literature, and the background to each of these collections is discussed. Each collection is evaluated using three modern automotive turbocharger style centrifugal compressors; comparisons of performance for each of the collections are made. An empirical data set taken from standard hot gas stand tests for each turbocharger is used as a baseline for comparison. Compressor range is predicted in this study; impeller diffusion ratio is shown to be a useful method of predicting compressor surge in 1D, and choke is predicted using basic compressible flow theory. The compressor designer can use this as a guide to identify the most compatible collection of losses for turbocharger compressor design applications. The analysis indicates the most appropriate collection for the design of automotive turbocharger centrifugal compressors.

An Evaluation of 1D Design Methods for the Off-Design Performance Prediction of Automotive Turbocharger Compressors

Several one-dimensional design methods have been used to predict the off-design performance of three modern centrifugal compressors for automotive turbocharging. The three methods used are single-zone, two-zone, and a more recent statistical method. The predicted results from each method are compared against empirical data taken from standard hot gas stand tests for each turbocharger. Each of the automotive turbochargers considered in this study have notably different geometries and are of varying application. Due to the non-adiabatic test conditions, the empirical data has been corrected for the effect of heat transfer to ensure comparability with the 1D models. Each method is evaluated for usability and accuracy in both pressure ratio and efficiency prediction. The paper presents an insight into the limitations of each of these models when applied to one-dimensional automotive turbocharger design, and proposes that a corrected single-zone modelling approach has the greatest potential for further development, whilst the statistical method could be immediately introduced to a design process where design variations are limited.

Hospitalization in Geriatric Wards: Considerations on the Evaluation of the Outcome

Within a defined law framework, the Italian central health system dictates the standards for hospitalization to local care units, which are in turn allowed to establish their own effectiveness criteria. The appropriateness of the hospitalization decision is therefore predetermined at patients admission, whereas its effectiveness relies on the ex post patient well-being as a result of the complex system of reciprocal relations between patients and healthcare agents at the ward level. We consider the outcomes in geriatric wards referring to the national health system, with respect both to patients traits at the individual level and wards/hospital settings. The risk that models the healthcare outcome is accordingly adjusted for covariates at the different levels of analysis (Goldstein & Spiegelhalter, 1996), thus allowing to differentiate among outcomes in terms of the hospitalization structure and, when appropriate, of territorial aggregation.

The association between myopia and various subtypes of lens opacity: SEE (Salisbury Eye Evaluation) project.

PURPOSE: To establish the relationship between myopia and lens opacity. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand five hundred twenty participants from the Salisbury Eye Evaluation aged 65 to 84 years. METHODS: Participants filled out questionnaires regarding medical history, social habits, and a detailed history of distance spectacle wear. They underwent a full ocular examination. Lens photographs were taken for assessment of lens opacity using the Wilmer grading system. Multivariate logistic regression models using generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the relationship between lens opacity type and degree of myopia, while accounting for potential confounders. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Presence of posterior subcapsular opacity, cortical opacity, or nuclear opacity. RESULTS: Significant associations were found between myopia and both nuclear and posterior subcapsular opacities. For nuclear opacity, the odds ratios (ORs) were 2.25 for myopia between -0.50 diopters (D) and -1.99 D (P<0.001), 3.65 for myopia between -2.00 D and -3.99 D (P<0.001), 4.54 for myopia between -4.00 D and -5.99 D (P<0.001), and 3.61 for myopia -6.00 D or more (P = 0.002). For posterior subcapsular cataracts, ORs were 1.59 for myopia between -0.50 D and -1.99 D (P = 0.11), 3.22 for myopia between -2.00 D and -3.99 D (P = 0.002), 5.36 for myopia between -4.00 D and -5.99 D (P<0.001), and 12.34 for myopia -6.00 D or more (P<0.001). No association was found between myopia and cortical opacity. The association between posterior subcapsular opacity and myopia was equally strong for those wearing glasses by age 21 years and for those without glasses; for nuclear opacity, significantly higher ORs were found for myopes who started wearing glasses after age 21. CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm the previously reported association between myopia, posterior subcapsular opacity, and nuclear opacity. Furthermore, the strong association between early spectacle wear and posterior subcapsular opacity among myopes, absent for nuclear opacity, suggests that myopia may precede opacity in the case of posterior subcapsular opacity, but not nuclear opacity. Measures of association between posterior subcapsular opacity and myopia were stronger in the current study than have previously been found. Longitudinal studies to confirm the association are warranted.

Ecotoxicological evaluation of pesticide mixtures

Neste trabalho o risco da aplicação de moluscicidas (metaldeído e metiocarbe) para o isópode terrestre Porcellionides pruinosus foi avaliado usando como parâmetros a mortalidade e biomarcadores de exposição. O tempo até à morte dos isópodes (após contacto com os moluscicidas) foi muito curto, especialmente no caso da exposição ao metiocarbe. Os vários biomarcadores revelaram-se úteis para a compreensão do modo de acção dos dois moluscicidas neste isópode, particularmente o efeito do carbamato metiocarbe na inibição da enzima acetilcolinesterase (AChE). Os efeitos de combinações binárias de três produtos de protecção das plantas (PPP) dimetoato, glifosato e espirodiclofeno foram avaliados testando o comportamento de evitamento de P. pruinosus, o sucesso reprodutivo do colêmbolo Folsomia candida e o crescimento das plantas Brassica rapa e Triticum aestivum, usando os dois modelos de referência de concentração de adição (CA) e acção independente (IA). O modelo MIXTOX foi usado para avaliar possíveis desvios (devido a interacções entre os pesticidas) dos dois modelos de referência. Os resultados obtidos permitem constatar que estes PPP quando aplicados segundo a dose recomendada não acarretam efeitos perniciosos para os organismos testados. Foi detectado sinergismo na mistura feita com glifosato e espirodiclofeno no isópode P. pruinosus e na mistura com glifosato e dimetoato na planta T. aestivum. Um ecossistema terrestre em pequena escala (“STEM”) foi desenvolvido, contendo um solo agrícola mediterrânico. Nestes STEM, minhocas (Eisenia andrei), P. pruinosus, B. rapa e “bait-lamina” foram incorporados no sentido de avaliar os efeitos da aplicação de dimetoato com espirodiclofeno e glifosato com dimetoato. A dose recomendada de aplicação dos PPP, quer na exposição individual quer nas misturas binárias não teve quaisquer efeitos nas espécies testadas. As minhocas foram sensíveis à aplicação conjunta de dimetoato com espirodiclofeno (10 vezes a dose recomendada) na sua distribuição vertical ao longo da coluna do STEM, e foi detectado sinergismo (i.e. mais minhocas escaparam do que a predição feita pelo modelo IA). Em todas as misturas binárias feitas com glifosato e dimetoato registou-se um decréscimo no consumo de “bait-lamina”, indicando sinergismo (menos “bait-lamina” consumidos que o esperado). Dos quatro biomarcadores (Catalase, AChE, GST e LPO) avaliados nos isópodes, verificaram-se diferenças significativas na actividade da enzima AChE (quando dimetoato foi aplicado no solo) e LPO (aumento da actividade devido à aplicação de glifosato e dimetoato).

Volatile terpenoids and C13 norisoprenoids in wines: development of rapid methods of analysis and evaluation of the sesquiterpenoids biological potential

Vitis vinifera L., the most widely cultivated fruit crop in the world, was the starting point for the development of this PhD thesis. This subject was exploited following on two actual trends: i) the development of rapid, simple, and high sensitive methodologies with minimal sample handling; and ii) the valuation of natural products as a source of compounds with potential health benefits. The target group of compounds under study were the volatile terpenoids (mono and sesquiterpenoids) and C13 norisoprenoids, since they may present biological impact, either from the sensorial point of view, as regards to the wine aroma, or by the beneficial properties for the human health. Two novel methodologies for quantification of C13 norisoprenoids in wines were developed. The first methodology, a rapid method, was based on the headspace solid-phase microextraction combined with gas chromatography-quadrupole mass spectrometry operating at selected ion monitoring mode (HS-SPME/GC-qMS-SIM), using GC conditions that allowed obtaining a C13 norisoprenoid volatile signature. It does not require any pre-treatment of the sample, and the C13 norisoprenoid composition of the wine was evaluated based on the chromatographic profile and specific m/z fragments, without complete chromatographic separation of its components. The second methodology, used as reference method, was based on the HS-SPME/GC-qMS-SIM, allowing the GC conditions for an adequate chromatographic resolution of wine components. For quantification purposes, external calibration curves were constructed with β-ionone, with regression coefficient (r2) of 0.9968 (RSD 12.51 %) and 0.9940 (RSD of 1.08 %) for the rapid method and for the reference method, respectively. Low detection limits (1.57 and 1.10 μg L-1) were observed. These methodologies were applied to seventeen white and red table wines. Two vitispirane isomers (158-1529 L-1) and 1,1,6-trimethyl-1,2-dihydronaphthalene (TDN) (6.42-39.45 μg L-1) were quantified. The data obtained for vitispirane isomers and TDN using the two methods were highly correlated (r2 of 0.9756 and 0.9630, respectively). A rapid methodology for the establishment of the varietal volatile profile of Vitis vinifera L. cv. 'Fernão-Pires' (FP) white wines by headspace solid-phase microextraction combined with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (HS-SPME/GCxGC-TOFMS) was developed. Monovarietal wines from different harvests, Appellations, and producers were analysed. The study was focused on the volatiles that seem to be significant to the varietal character, such as mono and sesquiterpenic compounds, and C13 norisoprenoids. Two-dimensional chromatographic spaces containing the varietal compounds using the m/z fragments 93, 121, 161, 175 and 204 were established as follows: 1tR = 255-575 s, 2tR = 0,424-1,840 s, for monoterpenoids, 1tR = 555-685 s, 2tR = 0,528-0,856 s, for C13 norisoprenoids, and 1tR = 695-950 s, 2tR = 0,520-0,960 s, for sesquiterpenic compounds. For the three chemical groups under study, from a total of 170 compounds, 45 were determined in all wines, allowing defining the "varietal volatile profile" of FP wine. Among these compounds, 15 were detected for the first time in FP wines. This study proposes a HS-SPME/GCxGC-TOFMS based methodology combined with classification-reference sample to be used for rapid assessment of varietal volatile profile of wines. This approach is very useful to eliminate the majority of the non-terpenic and non-C13 norisoprenic compounds, allowing the definition of a two-dimensional chromatographic space containing these compounds, simplifying the data compared to the original data, and reducing the time of analysis. The presence of sesquiterpenic compounds in Vitis vinifera L. related products, to which are assigned several biological properties, prompted us to investigate the antioxidant, antiproliferative and hepatoprotective activities of some sesquiterpenic compounds. Firstly, the antiradical capacity of trans,trans-farnesol, cis-nerolidol, α-humulene and guaiazulene was evaluated using chemical (DPPH• and hydroxyl radicals) and biological (Caco-2 cells) models. Guaiazulene (IC50= 0.73 mM) was the sesquiterpene with higher scavenger capacity against DPPH•, while trans,trans-farnesol (IC50= 1.81 mM) and cis-nerolidol (IC50= 1.48 mM) were more active towards hydroxyl radicals. All compounds, with the exception of α-humulene, at non-cytotoxic levels (≤ 1 mM), were able to protect Caco-2 cells from oxidative stress induced by tert-butyl hydroperoxide. The activity of the compounds under study was also evaluated as antiproliferative agents. Guaiazulene and cis-nerolidol were able to more effectively arrest the cell cycle in the S-phase than trans,trans-farnesol and α-humulene, being the last almost inactive. The relative hepatoprotection effect of fifteen sesquiterpenic compounds, presenting different chemical structures and commonly found in plants and plant-derived foods and beverages, was assessed. Endogenous lipid peroxidation and induced lipid peroxidation with tert-butyl hydroperoxide were evaluated in liver homogenates from Wistar rats. With the exception of α-humulene, all the sesquiterpenic compounds under study (1 mM) were effective in reducing the malonaldehyde levels in both endogenous and induced lipid peroxidation up to 35% and 70%, respectively. The developed 3D-QSAR models, relating the hepatoprotection activity with molecular properties, showed good fit (R2LOO > 0.819) with good prediction power (Q2 > 0.950 and SDEP < 2%) for both models. A network of effects associated with structural and chemical features of sesquiterpenic compounds such as shape, branching, symmetry, and presence of electronegative fragments, can modulate the hepatoprotective activity observed for these compounds. In conclusion, this study allowed the development of rapid and in-depth methods for the assessment of varietal volatile compounds that might have a positive impact on sensorial and health attributes related to Vitis vinifera L. These approaches can be extended to the analysis of other related food matrices, including grapes and musts, among others. In addition, the results of in vitro assays open a perspective for the promising use of the sesquiterpenic compounds, with similar chemical structures such as those studied in the present work, as antioxidants, hepatoprotective and antiproliferative agents, which meets the current challenges related to diseases of modern civilization.

Landslide susceptibility evaluation and validation at a regional scale

Tese de doutoramento, Geografia (Geografia Física), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, 2014

An Evaluation of Complex Adaptive Evolvable System Simulation

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-03

Can the state empower communities through localism? An evaluation of recent approaches to neighbourhood governance in England

‘Empowerment’ is a term much used by policy-makers with an interest in improving service delivery and promoting different forms of neighbourhood governance. But the term is ambiguous and has no generally accepted definition. Indeed, there is a growing paradox between the rhetoric of community empowerment and an apparent shift towards increased centralisation of power away from the neighbourhood in developed economies. This article explores the literature relating to empowerment and identifies two broad conceptions which reflect different emphases on neo-liberalism. It goes on to discuss two models illustrating different levels of state intervention at the neighbourhood level and sets out evidence from two neighbourhood councils in Milton Keynes in central England. In conclusion, it is argued that those initiatives which are top-down, state-led policy initiatives tend to result in the least empowerment (as defined by government), whereas the bottom-up, self-help projects, which may be partly state-enabled, at least provide an opportunity to create the spaces where there is some potential for varying degrees of transformation. Further empirical research is needed to test how far localist responses can challenge constraints on empowerment imposed by neo-liberalism.

Using a whole person approach to support people with cancer: a longitudinal, mixed methods service evaluation

Introduction: Improved models of care are needed to meet all the support needs of people with cancer, which encompass psychological, emotional, physical, spiritual, sexual, occupational, social and existential needs. The aim of this paper is to (1) evaluate short and long-term impacts of using a whole person approach to support people with cancer on the Living Well with the Impact of Cancer Course (LWC); (2) use these data to inform strategic decisions about future service provision at Penny Brohn UK. Methods: Longitudinal mixed-methods service evaluation (n=135). Data collected included health related quality of life (HRQoL) (FACIT-SpEx); Concerns (types and severity - MYCaW); lifestyle behaviour (bespoke questionnaire) and participants’ experiences over 12 months post course. Results: Statistically and clinically significant improvements from baseline - 12 months in severity of MYCaW Concerns (n=64; p<0.000) and mean total HRQoL (n=66; p<0.000). The majority of MYCaW concerns were ‘psychological and emotional’ and about participants’ wellbeing. Spiritual, emotional and functional wellbeing contributed most to HRQoL improvements at 12 months. Barriers to maintaining healthy lifestyle changes included lack of support from family and friends, time constraints, and returning to work. 3-6 months post-course was identified as the time when more support was most likely to be needed. Conclusions: Using a whole person approach for the LWC enabled the needs of participants to be met, and statistically and clinically significant improvements in HRQoL and MYCaW Concerns were reported. Qualitative data analysis explored how experiencing whole person support enabled participants to make and sustain healthy lifestyle changes associated with improved survivorship. Barriers experienced to making health behaviour change were also identified. These data then informed wider and more person-centred clinical provision to increase the maintenance of positive long-term behaviour changes. Comparison of whole person approaches to cancer treatment and support and standard care are now urgently needed.

Experimental and numerical evaluation of composite repairs on wood beams damaged by cross-graining

An experimental and Finite Element study was performed on the bending behaviour of wood beams of the Pinus Pinaster species repaired with adhesively-bonded carbon–epoxy patches, after sustaining damage by cross-grain failure. This damage is characterized by crack growth at a small angle to the beams longitudinal axis, due to misalignment between the wood fibres and the beam axis. Cross-grain failure can occur in large-scale in a wood member when trees that have grown spirally or with a pronounced taper are cut for lumber. Three patch lengths were tested. The simulations include the possibility of cohesive fracture of the adhesive layer, failure within the wood beam in two propagation planes and patch interlaminar failure, by the use of cohesive zone modelling. The respective cohesive properties were estimated either by an inverse method or from the literature. The comparison with the tests allowed the validation of the proposed methodology, opening a good perspective for the reduction of costs in the design stages of these repairs due to extensive experimentation.

Low-loss austempered ductile iron gears: experimental evaluation comparing materials and lubricants

An experimental study to evaluate the power dissipation of gears was performed. Three low-loss gear models were manufactured using standard 20° pressure angle tools. Austempered ductile iron (ADI) and 20MnCr5 carburized steel gears were tested in an FZG gear test machine using mineral, ester and polyalphaolephine (PAO)-based oils. The results compare power dissipation, the influence of different tooth flank geometries, materials and lubricants. This work concludes that conventional power-transmission gears can be replaced by these improved and more efficient low–loss models, which can be produced using common tools and that steel gears can be successfully replaced by austempered ductile iron gears.

Consumers Performance Evaluation of the Participation in Demand Response Programs Using Baseline Methods

Demand response has gain increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets environment. The use of demand resources is also advantageous in the context of smart grid operation. In addition to the need of new business models for integrating demand response, adequate methods are necessary for an accurate determination of the consumers’ performance evaluation after the participation in a demand response event. The present paper makes a comparison between some of the existing baseline methods related to the consumers’ performance evaluation, comparing the results obtained with these methods and also with a method proposed by the authors of the paper. A case study demonstrates the application of the referred methods to real consumption data belonging to a consumer connected to a distribution network.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.