945 resultados para Estimator standard error and efficiency


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Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2-10 °C for 2-14 days), but returning to cold winter climate exposes the ecosystem to lower temperatures by the loss of insulating snow. Soil animals, which play an integral part in soil processes, may be very susceptible to such events depending on the intensity of soil warming and low temperatures following these events. We simulated week-long extreme winter warming events - using infrared heating lamps, alone or with soil warming cables - for two consecutive years in a sub-Arctic dwarf shrub heathland. Minimum temperatures were lower and freeze-thaw cycles were 2-11 times more frequent in treatment plots compared with control plots. Following the second event, Acari populations decreased by 39%; primarily driven by declines of Prostigmata (69%) and the Mesostigmatic nymphs (74%). A community-weighted vertical stratification shift occurred from smaller soil dwelling (eu-edaphic) Collembola species dominance to larger litter dwelling (hemi-edaphic) species dominance in the canopy-with-soil warming plots compared with controls. The most susceptible groups to these winter warming events were the smallest individuals (Prostigmata and eu-edaphic Collembola). This was not apparent from abundance data at the Collembola taxon level, indicating that life forms and species traits play a major role in community assembly following extreme events. The observed shift in soil community can cascade down to the micro-flora affecting plant productivity and mineralization rates. Short-term extreme weather events have the potential to shift community composition through trait composition with potentially large consequences for ecosystem development.

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El objetivo del presente estudio fue obtener los parámetros bioetológicos de Sipha maydis (Passerini) y Schizaphis graminum (Rondani) sobre cebada, Hordeum vulgare L. cv. Pampa. Los pulgones se criaron en condiciones de laboratorio a 20±1 °C, 14:10 horas de fotofase y una humedad relativa del 50-70 %. Se obtuvieron cohortes a partir de poblaciones de estos áfidos, sobre las que se realizó el registro diario de los cambios de estado, número de individuos muertos y los nacimientos una vez alcanzado el estado adulto. Se analizaron las curvas de supervivencia por edades (lx) y fecundidad (mx) y los siguientes estadísticos vitales: tasa reproductiva neta (Ro); tasa intrínseca de crecimiento natural (rm); tiempo generacional medio (T) y tiempo de duplicación (D). Para la comparación de las rm se obtuvieron las rm estimadas junto con su error standard mediante el procedimiento <jackknife». Si bien el pulgón verde de los cereales S. graminum posee mayor eficiencia reproductiva, S. maydis presenta valores de supervivencia y fecundidad de importancia, que indicaría que este áfido podría constituirse en una plaga potencial de gramíneas cultivadas.

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We report a decadally resolved record of atmospheric CO2 concentration for the last 1000 years, obtained from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide shallow ice core. The most prominent feature of the pre-industrial period is a rapid ~7 ppm decrease of CO2 in a span of ~20-50 years at ~1600 A.D. This observation confirms the timing of an abrupt atmospheric CO2 decrease of ~10 ppm observed for that time period in the Law Dome ice core CO2 records, but the true magnitude of the decrease remains unclear. Atmospheric CO2 variations over the time period 1000-1800 A.D. are statistically correlated with northern hemispheric climate and tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. However, the exact relationship between CO2 and climate remains elusive due to regional climate variations and/or uneven geographical data density of paleoclimate records. We observe small differences of 0 ~2% (0 ~ 6 ppm) among the high-precision CO2 records from the Law Dome, EPICA Dronning Maud Land and WAIS Divide Antarctic ice cores. However, those records share common trends of CO2 change on centennial to multicentennial time scales, and clearly show that atmospheric CO2 has been increasing above preindustrial levels since ~1850 A.D.

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We conducted a six-week investigation of the sea ice inorganic carbon system during the winter-spring transition in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Samples for the determination of sea ice geochemistry were collected in conjunction with physical and biological parameters as part of the 2010 Arctic-ICE (Arctic - Ice-Covered Ecosystem in a Rapidly Changing Environment) program, a sea ice-based process study in Resolute Passage, Nunavut. The goal of Arctic-ICE was to determine the physical-biological processes controlling the timing of primary production in Arctic landfast sea ice and to better understand the influence of these processes on the drawdown and release of climatically active gases. The field study was conducted from 1 May to 21 June, 2010.

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The silicate fractions of recent pelagic sediments in the central north Pacific Ocean are dominated by eolian dust derived from central Asia. An 11 Myr sedimentary record at ODP Sites 885/886 at 44.7°N, 168.3°W allows the evaluation of how such dust and its sources have changed in response to late Cenozoic climate and tectonics. The extracted eolian fraction contains variable amounts (>70%) of clay minerals with subordinate quartz and plagioclase. Uniform Nd isotopic compositions (epsilon-Nd =38.6 to 310.5) and Sm/Nd ratios (0.170-0.192) for most of the 11 Myr record demonstrate a well-mixed provenance in the basins north of the Tibetan Plateau and the Gobi Desert that was a source of dust long before the oldest preserved Asian loess formed. epsilon-Nd values of up to 36.5 for samples 62.9 Ma indicate <=35 wt% admixture of a young, Kamchatka-like volcanic arc component. The coherence of Pb and Nd in the erosional cycle allows us to constrain the Pb isotopic composition of Asian loess devoid of anthropogenic contamination to 206Pb/204Pb =18.97 +/- 0.06, 207Pb/204Pb =15.67 +/- 0.02, 208Pb/204Pb =39.19 +/- 0.11. 87Sr/86Sr (0.711-0.721) and Rb/Sr ratios (0.39-1.1) vary with dust mineralogy and provide an age indication of ~250 Ma. 40Ar/39Ar ages of six dust samples are uniform around 200 Ma and match the K-Ar ages of modern dust deposited on Hawaii. These data reflect the weighted age average of illite formation. Changes from illite- smectite with significant kaolinite to illite- and chlorite-rich, kaolinite-free assemblages since the late Pliocene document changes in the intensity of chemical weathering in the source region. Such weathering evidently did not disturb the K-Ar systematics, and only induced scatter in the Rb-Sr data. We propose that when smectite forms at the expense of illite, K and Ar are quantitatively lost from what becomes smectite, but are quantitatively retained in adjacent illite layers. 40Ar/39Ar age data, therefore, are insensitive to smectite formation during chemical weathering but date the diagenetic growth of illite, the major K-bearing phase in the dust. Over the past 12 Myr, the dust flux to the north Pacific increased by more than an order of magnitude, documenting a substantial drying of central Asia. This climatic change, however, did not alter the ultimate source of the dust, and neoformational products of chemical weathering always remained subordinate to assemblages reworked by mechanical erosion in dust deposited in eastern Asia and the Pacific Ocean.

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High-resolution sediment records from the South China Sea reveal a winter monsoon dominated glacial regime and a summer monsoon dominated Holocene regime during the last glacial cycle. A fundamental change between regimes occurred during deglaciation through a series of millennial reoccurrences of century-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon (EAM) climate. These abrupt events centered at 17.0, 15.9, 15.5, 14.7, 13.5, 13.9, 13.3, 12.1, 11.5, and 10.7 14C ka correlate well with the millennial-scale events in the Santa Barbara Basin and the Arabian Sea, i.e. a relationship between EAM and El Niño/Southern Oscillation systems. The abrupt increases in summer monsoon imply enhanced heat transport from low-latitude sea area to the midlatitude/high-latitude land area. The phase relationship between events of EAM and ice sheet may reflect a faster EAM response and a slower ice sheet response to the insolation change. A far-reaching conclusion is that the EAM might have triggered the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.

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Fog deposition, precipitation, throughfall and stemflow were measured in a windward tropical montane cloud forest near Monteverde, Costa Rica, for a 65-day period during the dry season of 2003. Net fog deposition was measured directly using the eddy covariance (EC) method and it amounted to 1.2 ± 0.1 mm/day (mean ± standard error). Fog water deposition was 5-9% of incident rainfall for the entire period, which is at the low end of previously reported values. Stable isotope concentrations (d18O and d2H) were determined in a large number of samples of each water component. Mass balance-based estimates of fog deposition were 1.0 ± 0.3 and 5.0 ± 2.7 mm/day (mean ± SE) when d18O and d2H were used as tracer, respectively. Comparisons between direct fog deposition measurements and the results of the mass balance model using d18O as a tracer indicated that the latter might be a good tool to estimate fog deposition in the absence of direct measurement under many (but not all) conditions. At 506 mm, measured water inputs over the 65 days (fog plus rain) fell short by 46 mm compared to the canopy output of 552 mm (throughfall, stemflow and interception evaporation). This discrepancy is attributed to the underestimation of rainfall during conditions of high wind.

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We investigate the redistribution of terrigenous materials in the northeastern (NE) South American continental margin during slowdown events of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The compilation of stratigraphic data from 108 marine sediment cores collected across the western tropical Atlantic shows an extreme rise in sedimentation rates off the Parnaíba River mouth (about 2°S) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1, 18-15 ka). Sediment core GeoB16206-1, raised offshore the Parnaíba River mouth, documents relatively constant 143Nd/144Nd values (expressed as epsilonNd(0)) throughout the last 30 ka. Whereas the homogeneous epsilonNd(0) data support the input of fluvial sediments by the Parnaíba River from the same source area directly onshore, the increases in Fe/Ca, Al/Si and Rb/Sr during HS1 indicate a marked intensification of fluvial erosion in the Parnaíba River drainage basin. In contrast, the epsilonNd(0) values from sediment core GeoB16224-1 collected off French Guiana (about 7°N) suggest Amazon-sourced materials within the last 30 ka. We attribute the extremely high volume of terrigenous sediments deposited offshore the Parnaíba River mouth during HS1 to (i) an enhanced precipitation in the catchment region and (ii) a reduced North Brazil Current, which are both associated with a weakened AMOC.

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The variability in size and shape of shells of the polar planktonic foraminifer Neogloboquadrina pachyderma have been quantified in 33 recent surface sediment samples throughout the northern Atlantic Ocean and correlated with the properties of the ambient surface waters. The aim of the study was to determine whether any of the morphological features could be used to reconstruct sea surface properties in the polar realm of the North Atlantic, where most paleotemperature proxies appear to fail. The analyses revealed that shell morphology is only weakly controlled by habitat properties, whereas shell size showed a strong correlation with sea surface temperature. The regression of mean shell size on sea surface temperature revealed the presence of two trends among the sinistrally coiled shells: a continuous increase in shell size with decreasing SST in sediments deposited under polar water masses and a continuous increase in shell size with increasing SST in samples from transitional waters. The second trend mirrors the trend observed for dextrally coiled shells, which are frequent in the same samples and signal the presence of N. incompta. The identical mean shell size trends among the sinistral and dextral specimens in the temperate samples confirms the results of earlier genetic studies which indicated the existence of a small but distinct proportion of opposite coiling in N. incompta, to which the sinistral shells in the temperate samples could be attributed. The linear correlation between mean shell size and sea surface temperature in the polar domain (summer SST < 9 °C) has been used to develop an empirical formula for the reconstruction of past sea surface temperatures from shell sizes in fossil samples. The standard error of the residuals of the linear regression is 2.36 °C (1 sigma), which implies a much larger error than for most paleothermometers, but enough precision to allow resolution between results by individual paleothermometers in the polar domain. The resulting regression model has been applied on two sediment cores spanning the interval from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present day. The results from core PS1906-1 are consistent with ice-free conditions during the LGM in the Norwegian Sea. The SST estimates for the LGM inferred from N. pachyderma shell size are similar or slightly higher than those for the latest Holocene. The results do not indicate anomalously high SST during the glacial and the LGM reconstructions thus appear more consistent with the results from foraminiferal transfer functions and geochemical proxies. Both sediment cores show the highest reconstructed SST during the early Holocene insolation optimum.

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Nd and Pb isotopes were measured on the fine fraction of one sediment core drilled off southern Greenland. This work aims to reconstruct the evolution of deep circulation patterns in the North Atlantic during the Holocene on the basis of sediment supply variations. For the last 12 kyr, three sources have contributed to the sediment mixture: the North American Shield, the Pan-African and Variscan crusts, and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Clay isotope signatures indicate two mixtures of sediment sources. The first mixture (12.2-6.5 ka) is composed of material derived from the North American shield and from a "young" crustal source. From 6.5 ka onward the mixture is characterized by a young crustal component and by a volcanic component characteristic of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Since the significant decrease in proximal deglacial supplies, the evolution of the relative contributions of the sediment sources suggests major changes in the relative contributions of the deep water masses carried by the Western Boundary Undercurrent over the past 8.4 kyr. The progressive intensification of the Western Boundary Undercurrent was initially associated mainly with the transport of the Northeast Atlantic Deep Water mass until 6.5 ka and with the Denmark Strait Overflow Water thereafter. The establishment of the modern circulation at 3 ka suggests a reduced influence of the Denmark Strait Overflow Water, synchronous with the full appearance of the Labrador Seawater mass. Our isotopic data set emphasizes several changes in the relative contribution of the two major components of North Atlantic Deep Water throughout the Holocene.

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Two silicate-rich dust layers were found in the Dome Fuji ice core in East Antarctica, at Marine Isotope Stages 12 and 13. Morphologies, textures, and chemical compositions of constituent particles reveal that they are high-temperature melting products and are of extraterrestrial origin. Because similar layers were found ~2000 km east of Dome Fuji, at EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)-Dome C, particles must have rained down over a wide area 434 and 481 ka. The strewn fields occurred over an area of at least 3 × 10**6 km**2. Chemical compositions of constituent phases and oxygen isotopic composition of olivines suggest that the upper dust layer was produced by a high-temperature interaction between silicate-rich melt and water vapor due to an impact explosion or an aerial burst of a chondritic meteoroid on the inland East Antarctic ice sheet. An estimated total mass of the impactor, on the basis of particle flux and distribution area, is at least 3 × 10**9 kg. A possible parent material of the lower dust layer is a fragment of friable primitive asteroid or comet. A hypervelocity impact of asteroidal/cometary material on the upper atmosphere and an explosion might have produced aggregates of sub-µm to µm-sized spherules. Total mass of the parent material of the lower layer must exceed 1 × 10**9 kg. The two extraterrestrial horizons, each a few millimeters in thickness, represent regional or global meteoritic events not identified previously in the Southern Hemisphere.