On the skew-normal calibration model

In this article, we present the EM-algorithm for performing maximum likelihood estimation of an asymmetric linear calibration model with the assumption of skew-normally distributed error. A simulation study is conducted for evaluating the performance of the calibration estimator with interpolation and extrapolation situations. As one application in a real data set, we fitted the model studied in a dimensional measurement method used for calculating the testicular volume through a caliper and its calibration by using ultrasonography as the standard method. By applying this methodology, we do not need to transform the variables to have symmetrical errors. Another interesting aspect of the approach is that the developed transformation to make the information matrix nonsingular, when the skewness parameter is near zero, leaves the parameter of interest unchanged. Model fitting is implemented and the best choice between the usual calibration model and the model proposed in this article was evaluated by developing the Akaike information criterion, Schwarz`s Bayesian information criterion and Hannan-Quinn criterion.

Influence Diagnostics for a Skew Extension of the Grubbs Measurement Error Model

Influence diagnostics methods are extended in this article to the Grubbs model when the unknown quantity x (latent variable) follows a skew-normal distribution. Diagnostic measures are derived from the case-deletion approach and the local influence approach under several perturbation schemes. The observed information matrix to the postulated model and Delta matrices to the corresponding perturbed models are derived. Results obtained for one real data set are reported, illustrating the usefulness of the proposed methodology.

A robust Bayesian approach to null intercept measurement error model with application to dental data

Measurement error models often arise in epidemiological and clinical research. Usually, in this set up it is assumed that the latent variable has a normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be always correct. Skew-normal/independent distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions which includes the Skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of skew-normal/independent distribution as a robust alternative to null intercept measurement error model under a Bayesian paradigm. We assume that the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows jointly a skew-normal/independent distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric normal distribution in this type of model. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal distribution, the skew-t distributions, the skew-slash distributions and the skew contaminated normal distributions. The methods developed is illustrated using a real data set from a dental clinical trial. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Correcting the fixed-effect estimator for endogenous switching

In this paper, we propose a two-step estimator for panel data models in which a binary covariate is endogenous. In the first stage, a random-effects probit model is estimated, having the endogenous variable as the left-hand side variable. Correction terms are then constructed and included in the main regression.

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

Effect of measurement error and autocorrelation on the (X)over-bar chart

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

H-2 and H-infinity-optimal control for the tracking problem with zero variation

The problem of signal tracking, in the presence of a disturbance signal in the plant, is solved using a zero-variation methodology. A state feedback controller is designed in order to minimise the H-2-norm of the closed-loop system, such that the effect of the disturbance is attenuated. Then, a state estimator is designed and the modification of the zeros is used to minimise the H-infinity-norm from the reference input signal to the error signal. The error is taken to be the difference between the reference and the output signals, thereby making it a tracking problem. The design is formulated in a linear matrix inequality framework, such that the optimal solution of the stated control problem is obtained. Practical examples illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Safety illusion and error trap in a collectively-operated machine accident

Workplace accidents involving machines are relevant for their magnitude and their impacts on worker health. Despite consolidated critical statements, explanation centered on errors of operators remains predominant with industry professionals, hampering preventive measures and the improvement of production-system reliability. Several initiatives were adopted by enforcement agencies in partnership with universities to stimulate production and diffusion of analysis methodologies with a systemic approach. Starting from one accident case that occurred with a worker who operated a brake-clutch type mechanical press, the article explores cognitive aspects and the existence of traps in the operation of this machine. It deals with a large-sized press that, despite being endowed with a light curtain in areas of access to the pressing zone, did not meet legal requirements. The safety devices gave rise to an illusion of safety, permitting activation of the machine when a worker was still found within the operational zone. Preventive interventions must stimulate the tailoring of systems to the characteristics of workers, minimizing the creation of traps and encouraging safety policies and practices that replace judgments of behaviors that participate in accidents by analyses of reasons that lead workers to act in that manner.

Catch-per-unit-effort: which estimator is best?

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Searching for planar signatures in WMAP

We search for planar deviations of statistical isotropy in the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) data by applying a recently introduced angular-planar statistics both to full-sky and to masked temperature maps, including in our analysis the effect of the residual foreground contamination and systematics in the foreground removing process as sources of error. We confirm earlier findings that full-sky maps exhibit anomalies at the planar (l) and angular (l) scales (l; l) = (2; 5); (4; 7); and (6; 8), which seem to be due to unremoved foregrounds since this features are present in the full-sky map but not in the masked maps. on the other hand, our test detects slightly anomalous results at the scales (l; l) = (10; 8) and (2; 9) in the masked maps but not in the full-sky one, indicating that the foreground cleaning procedure (used to generate the full-sky map) could not only be creating false anomalies but also hiding existing ones. We also find a significant trace of an anomaly in the full-sky map at the scale (l; l) = (10; 5), which is still present when we consider galactic cuts of 18.3% and 28.4%. As regards the quadrupole (l = 2), we find a coherent over-modulation over the whole celestial sphere, for all full-sky and cut-sky maps. Overall, our results seem to indicate that current CMB maps derived from WMAP data do not show significant signs of anisotropies, as measured by our angular-planar estimator. However, we have detected a curious coherence of planar modulations at angular scales of the order of the galaxy's plane, which may be an indication of residual contaminations in the full-and cut-sky maps.

Using error bounds to compare aggregated generalized transportation models

A comparative study of aggregation error bounds for the generalized transportation problem is presented. A priori and a posteriori error bounds were derived and a computational study was performed to (a) test the correlation between the a priori, the a posteriori, and the actual error and (b) quantify the difference of the error bounds from the actual error. Based on the results we conclude that calculating the a priori error bound can be considered as a useful strategy to select the appropriate aggregation level. The a posteriori error bound provides a good quantitative measure of the actual error.