Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

Consumer populations and nutritional transition in Spain in the 20th century: a methodology for their reconstruction

One feature of the modern nutrition transition is the growing consumption of animal proteins. The most common approach in the quantitative analysis of this change used to be the study of averages of food consumption. But this kind of analysis seems to be incomplete without the knowledge of the number of consumers. Data about consumers are not usually published in historical statistics. This article introduces a methodological approach for reconstructing consumer populations. This methodology is based on some assumptions about the diffusion process of foodstuffs and the modeling of consumption patterns with a log-normal distribution. This estimating process is illustrated with the specific case of milk consumption in Spain between 1925 and 1981. These results fit quite well with other data and indirect sources available showing that this dietary change was a slow and late process. The reconstruction of consumer population could shed a new light in the study of nutritional transitions.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Schistosoma mansoni Infection in Rural and Urban Endemic Areas of Minas Gerais, Brazil

To compare the epidemiological profile and socioeconomic factors associated to the infection by Schistosoma mansoni in a rural and an urban endemic area a cross-sectional study was performed in Água Branca de Minas (rural area) and Bela Fama (urban area), both situated in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Two hundred and eighty eight individuals were surveyed in the rural area and 787 in the urban area. Water contact and socioeconomic questionnaires were used to identify risk factors for the infection. The prevalences of 38.8% and 9.7% and the geometric mean of eggs per gram of faeces of 117.8 and 62.3 were found in the rural and urban areas, respectively. By multivariate statistical analysis age groups over nine years old and previous specific treatment were associated with the infection in rural area. In urban area age over nine years old, low quality housing, weekly fishing and swimming were associated after adjustment by logistic regression

Biostratigraphy, mineralogy and geochemistry of the Trabakua Pass and Ermua sections in Spain: Paleocene-Eocene transition

Isotopic, geochemical and bulk mineralogical analyses in the Trabakua and Ermua sections, Basque Basin, reveal major changes across the Paleocene-Eocene transition. Expanded sedimentary records exhibit a gradual decrease of 1.0 parts per thousand in delta(13)C values in the lower part of Zone P5 followed by a more rapid 3 parts per thousand negative excursion. The 3 parts per thousand delta(13)C excursion is associated with an abrupt decrease in carbonate sedimentation, increased detrital flux and decreased grain size which suggest changes in marine/atmospheric currents and/or size and structure of the ocean carbon reservoir. The clays recognized at Trabakua record a deep burial diagenesis as indicated by two generations of chlorite, the presence of mixed-layers chlorite-smectite and illite-smectite, the absence of smectite and the near absence of kaolinite. The very low delta(18)O values (<-3.5 parts per thousand) throughout the Trabakua and Ermua sections reflect diagenetic alteration rather than paleotemperatures. Because of deep burial diagenesis and very poorly preserved microfossils, the Trabakua Pass and Ermua sections are not optimal potential stratotypes for the Paleocene-Eocene boundary.

Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

The transition of care from fertility specialists to obstetricians: maternal adjustment and postpartum depressive symptoms.

Aim: This study examines the transition from fertility to obstetrical care of women who conceived through IVF. Materials & methods: 33 women filled out questionnaires before IVF, during pregnancy and after birth on infertility stress, maternal adjustment and depressive symptoms. During pregnancy, they participated in an interview about their emotional experiences regarding the transition. Responses were sorted into three categories: Autonomy, Dependence and Avoidance. Results: Exploratory results show that 51.5% of women had no difficulties making the transition (Autonomy), 21.2% had become dependent (Dependence) and 27.3% had distanced themselves from the specialists (Avoidance). Women who became dependent had more trouble adjusting to motherhood and more depressive symptoms. Conclusion: Difficulty making the transition may be linked to decreased ability to adjust to motherhood and more postpartum depressive symptoms.

A comparative study on IgG-ELISA, IgM-IFT and Kato-Katz methods for epidemiological purposes in a low endemic area for schistosomiasis

The high sensitivity and the possibility of automation of the enzyme-linked-immunosorbent-assay (ELISA) has indicated this technique as one of the most useful serological test for epidemiological studies. In the present study, an ELISA for detection of IgG antibodies against adult worm antigens (IgG-ELISA) was investigated for epidemiological purposes, in a rural area of the municipality of Itariri (São Paulo, Brazil). Blood on filter paper (1,180 samples) from about 650 schoolchildren were submitted to ELISA and the data compared to the results of the parasitological method of Kato-Katz and also to the IgM-IFT (immunofluorescence test for IgM antibodies to gut associated antigens). The prevalence rates respectively of 8.5%, 43.0%, and 56.2% by the Kato-Katz, IgG-ELISA, and IgM-IFT methods suggest the poor sensitivity of the parasitological method for detection of Schistosoma mansoni eggs in individuals with low worm burden, situation commonly observed in low endemic areas. These results can partially explain the poor degree of agreement between the IgG-ELISA and the Kato-Katz, as suggested by the Kappa index of 0.170. Otherwise, the Kappa index of 0.675 showed substantial agreement between the two serological tests. Some discrepancy of results between the two serological techniques must be better investigated.

The social transition of risk factors for cardiovascular disease in the African region: evidence from three cross-sectional surveys in the Seychelles.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and several cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVRFs) and to assess whether this association has changed over a 15-year observation period. METHODS: Three independent population-based surveys of CVRFs were conducted in representative samples of all adults aged 25-64 years in the Seychelles, a small island state located east to Kenya, in 1989 (N=1081), 1994 (N=1067) and 2004 (N=1255). RESULTS: Among men, current smoking and heavy drinking were more prevalent in the low versus the high SES group, and obesity was less prevalent. The socioeconomic gradient in diabetes reversed over the study period from lower prevalence in the low versus the high SES group to higher prevalence in the low SES group. Hypercholesterolemia was less prevalent in the low versus the high SES group in 1989 but the prevalence was similar in the two groups in 2004. Hypertension showed no consistent socioeconomic pattern. Among women, the SES gradient in smoking tended to reverse over time from lower prevalence in the low SES group to lower prevalence in the high SES group. Obesity and diabetes were more common in the low versus the high SES group over the study period. Heavy drinking, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia were not socially patterned among women. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of several CVRFs was higher in low versus high SES groups in a rapidly developing country in the African region, and an increase of the burden of these CVRFs in the most disadvantaged groups of the population was observed over the 15 years study period.

The Epidemiological Impact of Antimeningococcal B Vaccination in Cuba

The incidence of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) before (1984-1988) and after (1989-1994), a nationwide intervention with VA-MENGOC-BC vaccination started in 1989, was compared. The prevaccination period incidence density (ID> 8.8/ 105 year-person) was higher than the postvaccination ID (ID< 6.5/ 105 year-person). The percentage proportional differences from the start to the end of each period of ID in the vaccinal period was higher (87%) than the prevaccinal (37%) with significant differences among vaccinated groups (< 25 years old). A break-point (Chow test) was confirmed by the decrease in the ID between 1989 and 1990 in children under 1 year old, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and 50-54 years. Comparison of ID using maps showed a decrease in IMD in all municipalities during the postvaccination period. These findings support the epidemiological impact of VA-MENGOC-BC vaccination in the reduction of IMD morbidity.

Changes in the Sexual Dimorphism of Triatominae in the Transition from Natural to Artificial Habitats

A shift from large to small average sizes was observed in Triatoma infestans and Rhodnius domesticus between field and domestic (or laboratory) conditions of life. It was more pronounced in the female specimens, leading to a subsequent reduction of sexual size dimorphism. This feature is discussed in terms of genetic and populational changes occurring from natural to artificial habitats, in particular those related to population densities. Sexual size dimorphism is then recommended as a new character to be used in the study of species of Triatominae adapting to domestic ecotopes.

Evolution of the clinical and epidemiological knowledge about Chagas disease 90 years after its discovery

Three different periods may be considered in the evolution of knowledge about the clinical and epidemiological aspects of Chagas disease since its discovery: (a) early period concerning the studies carried out by Carlos Chagas in Lassance with the collaboration of other investigators of the Manguinhos School. At that time the disease was described and the parasite, transmitters and reservoirs were studied. The coexistence of endemic goiter in the same region generated some confusion about the clinical forms of the disease; (b) second period involving uncertainty and the description of isolated cases, which lasted until the 1940 decade. Many acute cases were described during this period and the disease was recognized in many Latin American countries. Particularly important were the studies of the Argentine Mission of Regional Pathology Studies, which culminated with the description of the Romaña sign in the 1930 decade, facilitating the diagnosis of the early phase of the disease. However, the chronic phase, which was the most important, continued to be difficult to recognize; (c) period of consolidation of knowledge and recognition of the importance of Chagas disease. Studies conducted by Laranja, Dias and Nóbrega in Bambuí updated the description of Chagas heart disease made by Carlos Chagas and Eurico Villela. From then on, the disease was more easily recognized, especially with the emphasis on the use of a serologic diagnosis; (d) period of enlargement of knowledges on the disease. The studies on denervation conducted in Ribeirão Preto by Fritz Köberle starting in the 1950 decade led to a better understanding of the relations between Chagas disease and megaesophagus and other visceral megas detected in endemic areas.