The impact of large-scale circulation patterns on summer crop in Iberian Peninsula

Large-scale circulations patterns (ENSO, NAO) have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather, and therefore on crop yield over many parts of the world(Garnett and Khandekar, 1992; Aasa et al., 2004; Rozas and Garcia-Gonzalez, 2012). In this study, we analyze the influence of large-scale circulation patterns and regional climate on the principal components of maize yield variability in Iberian Peninsula (IP) using reanalysis datasets. Additionally, we investigate the modulation of these relationships by multidecadal patterns. This study is performed analyzing long time series of maize yield, only climate dependent, computed with the crop model CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5).

Geochemistry of corals: Proxies of past ocean chemistry, ocean circulation, and climate

This paper presents a discussion of the status of the field of coral geochemistry as it relates to the recovery of past records of ocean chemistry, ocean circulation, and climate. The first part is a brief review of coral biology, density banding, and other important factors involved in understanding corals as proxies of environmental variables. The second part is a synthesis of the information available to date on extracting records of the carbon cycle and climate change. It is clear from these proxy records that decade time-scale variability of mixing processes in the oceans is a dominant signal. That Western and Eastern tropical Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) records differ is an important piece of the puzzle for understanding regional and global climate change. Input of anthropogenic CO2 to the oceans as observed by 13C and 14C isotopes in corals is partially obscured by natural variability. Nonetheless, the general trend over time toward lower δ18O values at numerous sites in the world’s tropical oceans suggests a gradual warming and/or freshening of the surface ocean over the past century.

Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium - an assessment with the ECHO-g Model

Studies addressing climate variability during the last millennium generally focus on variables with a direct influence on climate variability, like the fast thermal response to varying radiative forcing, or the large-scale changes in atmospheric dynamics (e. g. North Atlantic Oscillation). The ocean responds to these variations by slowly integrating in depth the upper heat flux changes, thus producing a delayed influence on ocean heat content (OHC) that can later impact low frequency SST (sea surface temperature) variability through reemergence processes. In this study, both the externally and internally driven variations of the OHC during the last millennium are investigated using a set of fully coupled simulations with the ECHO-G (coupled climate model ECHAMA4 and ocean model HOPE-G) atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). When compared to observations for the last 55 yr, the model tends to overestimate the global trends and underestimate the decadal OHC variability. Extending the analysis back to the last one thousand years, the main impact of the radiative forcing is an OHC increase at high latitudes, explained to some extent by a reduction in cloud cover and the subsequent increase of short-wave radiation at the surface. This OHC response is dominated by the effect of volcanism in the preindustrial era, and by the fast increase of GHGs during the last 150 yr. Likewise, salient impacts from internal climate variability are observed at regional scales. For instance, upper temperature in the equatorial Pacific is controlled by ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales. Also, both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate intermittently the interdecadal OHC variability in the North Pacific and Mid Atlantic, respectively. The NAO, through its influence on North Atlantic surface heat fluxes and convection, also plays an important role on the OHC at multiple timescales, leading first to a cooling in the Labrador and Irminger seas, and later on to a North Atlantic warming, associated with a delayed impact on the AMO.

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (high-top') and models that do not (low-top'). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (December-March) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) and how they relate to predictive skill on intraseasonal to seasonal time-scales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

Australian water mass variations from GRACE data linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability

Time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used to study total water content over Australia for the period 2002–2010. A time-varying annual signal explains 61% of the variance of the data, in good agreement with two independent estimates of the same quantity from hydrological models. Water mass content variations across Australia are linked to Pacific and Indian Ocean variability, associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), respectively. From 1989, positive (negative) IOD phases were related to anomalously low (high) precipitation in southeastern Australia, associated with a reduced (enhanced) tropical moisture flux. In particular, the sustained water mass content reduction over central and southern regions of Australia during the period 2006–2008 is associated with three consecutive positive IOD events.

Vanuatu fossil coral SST reconstruction for 4200 yr BP

We present a 47-year-long record of sea surface temperature (SST) derived from Sr/Ca and U/Ca analysis of a massive Porites coral which grew at ~4150 calendar years before present (B.P.) in Vanuatu (southwest tropical Pacific Ocean). Mean SST is similar in both the modern instrumental record and paleorecord, and both exhibit El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency SST oscillations. However, several strong decadal-frequency cooling events and a marked modulation of the seasonal SST cycle, with power at both ENSO and decadal frequencies, are observed in the paleorecord, which are unprecedented in the modern record.

Tree ring record from a Redwood

The permanent exhibition of the Staatliches Museum für Naturkunde Stuttgart, Schloss Rosenstein, contains the cross section of a California coast redwood tree (Sequoia sempervirens) from Humboldt County, California, felled in 1966 reveals 1285 annual tree-rings. The measured thicknesses of tree-rings comprise a time series with distinct thickness variations, which are the expression of changing environmental conditions such as precipitation and fog. These factors are controlled by nearby coastal upwelling, which is again influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and which in turn can be influenced by variations of solar radiance. In fact, the tree-ring time series comprises evidence for three orders of solar cycles that may have indirectly controlled tree growth: Hale cycle (21.9 yr), Gleissberg cycle (88.6 yr) and De Vries cycle (209.8 yr). These interpretations should, however, be treated with caution, because it is the only cross section known and the acquirement of reliable data requires cross dating of several sections. (was: The cross section of a California coast redwood tree (Sequoia sempervirens) felled in 1966 reveals 1285 annual tree-rings. The measured thicknesses of tree-rings comprise a time series with distinct thickness variations, which are the expression of changing environmental conditions such as precipitation and fog. These factors are controlled by nearby coastal upwelling, which is again influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and which in turn can be influenced by variations of solar radiance. In fact, the tree-ring time series comprises evidence for three orders of solar cycles that may have indirectly controlled tree growth: Hale cycle (21.9 yr), Gleissberg cycle (88.6 yr) and De Vries cycle (209.8 yr).

Bulk sediment element analysis of sediment cores GeoB10065-9 and GeoB10065-7, offshore northwest Sumba Island, Indonesia

The Australian-Indonesian monsoon has a governing influence on the agricultural practices and livelihood in the highly populated islands of Indonesia. However, little is known about the factors that have influenced past monsoon activity in southern Indonesia. Here, we present a ~6000 years high-resolution record of Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) rainfall variations based on bulk sediment element analysis in a sediment archive retrieved offshore northwest Sumba Island (Indonesia). The record suggests lower riverine detrital supply and hence weaker AISM rainfall between 6000 yr BP and ~3000 yr BP compared to the Late Holocene. We find a distinct shift in terrigenous sediment supply at around 2800 yr BP indicating a reorganization of the AISM from a drier Mid Holocene to a wetter Late Holocene in southern Indonesia. The abrupt increase in rainfall at around 2800 yr BP coincides with a grand solar minimum. An increase in southern Indonesian rainfall in response to a solar minimum is consistent with climate model simulations that provide a possible explanation of the underlying mechanism responsible for the monsoonal shift. We conclude that variations in solar activity play a significant role in monsoonal rainfall variability at multi-decadal and longer timescales. The combined effect of orbital and solar forcing explains important details in the temporal evolution of AISM rainfall during the last 6000 years. By contrast, we find neither evidence for volcanic forcing of AISM variability nor for a control by long-term variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Geochemical data for drilled powder samples from two fossil Porites corals from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 310

Fossil corals are unique archives of past seasonal climate variability, providing vital information about seasonal climate phenomena such as ENSO and monsoons. However, submarine diagenetic processes can potentially obscure the original climate signals and lead to false interpretations. Here we demonstrate the potential of laser ablation ICP-MS to rapidly detect secondary aragonite precipitates in fossil Porites colonies recovered by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 310 from submerged deglacial reefs off Tahiti. High resolution (100 µm) measurements of coralline B/Ca, Mg/Ca, S/Ca, and U/Ca ratios are used to distinguish areas of pristine skeleton from those afflicted with secondary aragonite. Measurements of coralline Sr/Ca, U/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios, from areas identified as pristine, reveal that the seasonal range of sea surface temperature in the tropical south Pacific during the last deglaciation (14.7 and 11 ka) was similar to that of today.

Sedimentology on a core from Lonar Lake in India

Concerns about the regional impact of global climate change in a warming scenario have highlighted the gaps in our understanding of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM, also referred to as the Indian Ocean summer monsoon) and the absence of long term palaeoclimate data from the central Indian core monsoon zone (CMZ). Here we present the first high resolution, well-dated, multiproxy reconstruction of Holocene palaeoclimate from a 10 m long sediment core raised from the Lonar Lake in central India. We show that while the early Holocene onset of intensified monsoon in the CMZ is similar to that reported from other ISM records, the Lonar data shows two prolonged droughts (PD, multidecadal to centennial periods of weaker monsoon) between 4.6-3.9 and 2-0.6 cal?ka. A comparison of our record with available data from other ISM influenced sites shows that the impact of these PD was observed in varying degrees throughout the ISM realm and coincides with intervals of higher solar irradiance. We demonstrate that (i) the regional warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) plays an important role in causing ISM PD through changes in meridional overturning circulation and position of the anomalous Walker cell; (ii) the long term influence of conditions like El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the ISM began only ca. 2 cal?ka BP and is coincident with the warming of the southern IPWP; (iii) the first settlements in central India coincided with the onset of the first PD and agricultural populations flourished between the two PD, highlighting the significance of natural climate variability and PD as major environmental factors affecting human settlements.

Age models for sediment cores off Peru

Planktonic foraminiferal faunas of the southeast Pacific indicate that sea surface temperatures (SST) have varied by as much as 8-10°C in the Peru Current, and by ?5-7°C along the equator, over the past 150,000 years. Changes in SST at times such as the Last Glacial Maximum reflect incursion of high-latitude species Globorotalia inflata and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma into the eastern boundary current and as far north as the equator. A simple heat budget model of the equatorial Pacific shows that observed changes in Peru Current advection can account for about half of the total variability in equatorial SSTs. The remaining changes in equatorial SST, which are likely related to local changes in upwelling or pycnocline depth, precede changes in polar climates as recorded by d18O. This partitioning of processes in eastern equatorial Pacific SST reveals that net ice-age cooling here reflects first a rapid response of equatorial upwelling to insolation, followed by a later response to changes in the eastern boundary current associated with high-latitude climate (which closely resembles variations in atmospheric CO2 as recorded in the Vostok ice core). Although precise mechanisms responsible for the equatorial upwelling component of climate change remain uncertain, one likely candidate that may operate independently of the ice sheets is insolation-driven changes in El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency. Early responses of equatorial SST detected both here and elsewhere highlight the sensitivity of tropical systems to small changes in seasonal insolation. The scale of tropical changes we have observed are substantially greater than model predictions, suggesting a need for further quantitative assessment of processes associated with long-term climate change.

Table 1. Radiocarbon dates from TPC522 and box core surface samples from BC521 and BC523

Recent intensification of wind-driven upwelling of warm upper circumpolar deep water (UCDW) has been linked to accelerated melting of West Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers. To better assess the long term relationship between UCDWupwelling and the stability of theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet, we present a multi-proxy reconstruction of surface and bottom water conditions in Marguerite Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), through the Holocene. A combination of sedimentological, diatom and foraminiferal records are, for the first time, presented together to infer a decline in UCDW influence within Marguerite Bay through the early to mid Holocene and the dominance of cyclic forcing in the late Holocene. Extensive glacial melt, limited sea ice and enhanced primary productivity between 9.7 and 7.0 ka BP is considered to be most consistent with persistent incursions of UCDW through Marguerite Trough. From 7.0 ka BP sea ice seasons increased and productivity decreased, suggesting that UCDW influence within Marguerite Bay waned, coincident with the equatorward migration of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW). UCDW influence continued through the mid Holocene, and by 4.2 ka BP lengthy sea ice seasons persisted within Marguerite Bay. Intermittent melting and reforming of this sea ice within the late Holocene may be indicative of episodic incursions of UCDW into Marguerite Bay during this period. The cyclical changes in the oceanography within Marguerite Bay during the late Holocene is consistent with enhanced sensitively to ENSO forcing as opposed to the SWW-forcing that appears to have dominated the early to mid Holocene. Current measurements of the oceanography of the WAP continental shelf suggest that the system has now returned to the early Holocene-like oceanographic configuration reported here, which in both cases has been associated with rapid deglaciation.

Variations of fin whale vocalizations in the Northeast Pacific and the effects of environmental parameters on acoustic sensitivity

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

An Integrated Assessment of the Red Sea Urchin (Strongylocentrotus franciscanus) Fisheries in Southern California and Washington State: Addressing Sustainability and Vulnerability in the face of Climate Change

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06