Horizontal nutrient fluxes and production efficiencies in urban and peri-urban crop and livestock husbandry of Niamey, Niger

Urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) increasingly supplies food and non-food values to the rapidly growing West African cities. However, little is known about the resource use efficiencies in West African small-scale UPA crop and livestock production systems, and about the benefits that urban producers and retailers obtain from the cultivation and sale of UPA products. To contribute to filling this gap of knowledge, the studies comprising this doctoral thesis determined nutrient use efficiencies in representative urban crop and livestock production system in Niamey, Niger, and investigated potential health risks for consumers. Also assessed was the economic efficiency of urban farming activities. The field study, which was conducted during November 2005 to January 2008, quantified management-related horizontal nutrient flows in 10 vegetable gardens, 9 millet fields and 13 cattle and small ruminant production units. These farms, selected on the basis of a preceding study, represented the diversity of UPA crop and livestock production systems in Niamey. Based on the management intensity, the market orientation and especially the nutrient input to individual gardens and fields, these were categorized as high or low input systems. In the livestock study, high and low input cattle and small ruminant units were differentiated based on the amounts of total feed dry matter offered daily to the animals at the homestead. Additionally, economic returns to gardeners and market retailers cultivating and selling amaranth, lettuce, cabbage and tomato - four highly appreciated vegetables in Niamey were determined during a 6-months survey in forty gardens and five markets. For vegetable gardens and millet fields, significant differences in partial horizontal nutrient balances were determined for both management intensities. Per hectare, average annual partial balances for carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) amounted to 9936 kg C, 1133 kg N, 223 kg P and 312 kg K in high input vegetable gardens as opposed to 9580 kg C, 290 kg N, 125 kg P and 351 kg K in low input gardens. These surpluses were mainly explained by heavy use of mineral fertilizers and animal manure to which irrigation with nutrient rich wastewater added. In high input millet fields, annual surpluses of 259 kg C ha-1, 126 kg N ha-1, 20 kg P ha-1 and 0.4 kg K ha-1 were determined. Surpluses of 12 kg C ha-1, 17 kg N ha-1, and deficits of -3 kg P ha-1 and -3 kg K ha-1 were determined for low input millet fields. Here, carbon and nutrient inputs predominantly originated from livestock manure application through corralling of sheep, goats and cattle. In the livestock enterprises, N, P and K supplied by forages offered at the farm exceeded the animals’ requirements for maintenance and growth in high and low input sheep/goat as well as cattle units. The highest average growth rate determined in high input sheep/goat units was 104 g d-1 during the cool dry season, while a maximum average gain of 70 g d-1 was determined for low input sheep/goat units during the hot dry season. In low as well as in high input cattle units, animals lost weight during the hot dry season, and gained weight during the cool dry season. In all livestock units, conversion efficiencies for feeds offered at the homestead were rather poor, ranging from 13 to 42 kg dry matter (DM) per kg live weight gain (LWG) in cattle and from 16 to 43 kg DM kg-1 LWG in sheep/goats, pointing to a substantial waste of feeds and nutrients. The economic assessment of the production of four high value vegetables pointed to a low efficiency of N and P use in amaranth and lettuce production, causing low economic returns for these crops compared to tomato and cabbage to which inexpensive animal manure was applied. The net profit of market retailers depended on the type of vegetable marketed. In addition it depended on marketplace for amaranth and lettuce, and on season and marketplace for cabbage and tomato. Analysis of faecal pathogens in lettuce irrigated with river water and fertilized with animal manure indicated a substantial contamination by Salmonella spp. with 7.2 x 104 colony forming units (CFU) per 25 g of produce fresh matter, while counts of Escherichia coli averaged 3.9 x 104 CFU g-1. In lettuce irrigated with wastewater, Salmonella counts averaged 9.8 x 104 CFU 25 g-1 and E. coli counts were 0.6 x 104 CFU g-1; these values exceeded the tolerable contamination levels in vegetables of 10 CFU g-1 for E. coli and of 0 CFU 25 g-1 for Salmonella. Taken together, the results of this study indicate that Niamey’s UPA enterprises put environmental safety at risk since excess inputs of N, P and K to crop and livestock production units favour N volatilisation and groundwater pollution by nutrient leaching. However, more detailed studies are needed to corroborate these indications. Farmers’ revenues could be significantly increased if nutrient use efficiency in the different production (sub)systems was improved by better matching nutrient supply through fertilizers and feeds with the actual nutrient demands of plants and animals.

Dieselmotor-Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsanlagen im Kontext der Integration Erneuerbarer Energien in die Energieversorgung

In dieser Arbeit werden die sich abzeichnenden zukünftigen Möglichkeiten, Stärken und Schwächen der Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung (KWK) untersucht. Dies geschieht vor dem Hintergrund des Klimawandels, der Integration steigender Anteile Erneuerbarer Energien in die Stromerzeugung und unter Berücksichtigung der sich damit ergebenden Herausforderungen, eine sichere und nachhaltige Stromversorgung zu gestalten. Der Fokus liegt auf der Dieselmotor-KWK und der Nutzung nachwachsender Kraftstoffe. Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass der Übergang zu einer reinen Stromerzeugung aus Erneuerbaren Energiequellen in Deutschland unter erheblicher Einbindung des hohen Potentials der kostengünstigen, umweltfreundlichen, aber in der Leistung extrem fluktuierenden Windenergie erfolgen wird. Als dezentrales Integrationswerkzeug wurde die Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung mit Dieselmotoren untersucht. Sie entspricht aufgrund ihrer großen Flexibilität und ihrer hohen Wirkungsgrade mit vergleichsweise kleinen Leistungen sehr gut den Anforderungen der gleichzeitigen dezentralen Wärmenutzung. In der Dissertation werden die Randbedingungen der Dieselmotor-KWK untersucht und beschrieben. Darauf aufbauend werden unterschiedliche Modelle der Windintegration durch KWK erarbeitet und in diversen Variationen wird der Ausgleich der Stromerzeugung aus Windenergie durch KWK simuliert. Darüber hinaus werden dezentrale KWK-Anlagen hinsichtlich eines koordinierten gemeinsamen Betriebs und hinsichtlich der optimalen Auslegung für den Windenergieausgleich betrachtet. Es wird für den beschriebenen Kontext der Erneuerbaren Energien und der Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung das Thema „Umweltwirkungen“ diskutiert. Es wird dargelegt, dass die heute verwendeten Ansätze zur Bewertung der KWK zu einer Verzerrung der Ergebnisse führen. Demgegenüber wurde mit der so genannten Outputmethode eine Methode der Ökobilanzierung vorgestellt, die, im Gegensatz zu den anderen Methoden, keine verzerrenden Annahmen in die Wirkungsabschätzung aufnimmt und somit eine eindeutige und rein wissenschaftliche Auswertung bleibt. Hiermit ist die Grundlage für die Bewertung der unterschiedlichen Technologien und Szenarien sowie für die Einordnung der KWK in den Kontext der Energieerzeugung gegeben. Mit der Outputmethode wird u.a. rechnerisch bewiesen, dass die gekoppelte Strom- und Wärmeerzeugung in KWK-Anlagen tatsächlich die optimale Nutzung der regenerativen Kraftstoffe „Biogas“ und „Pflanzenöl“ im Hinblick auf Ressourceneinsatz, Treibhausgaseinsparung und Exergieerzeugung ist. Es wurde darüber hinaus die Frage untersucht woher die für die Stromerzeugung durch Dieselmotor-KWK-Anlagen notwendige Bioenergie genommen werden kann. Es ist erwiesen, dass die in Deutschland nutzbare landwirtschaftliche Fläche nur zur Deckung eines Teils der Stromerzeugung ausreichen würde. Einheimisches Biogas und nachhaltiges importiertes Pflanzenöl, das in hohem Maße auf degradierten Böden angebaut werden sollte, können die notwendige Brennstoffenergie liefern. Um im Ausland ausreichend Pflanzenöl herstellen zu können, wird eine landwirtschaftliche Fläche von 6 bis 12 Mio. ha benötigt. Das Ergebnis ist, dass ein voller Ausgleich von Windenergie-Restlast durch KWK mit Erneuerbaren Energieträgern sinnvoll und machbar ist! Dieses Wind-KWK-DSM-System sollte durch ein Stromnetz ergänzt sein, das Wasserkraftstrom für den Großteil der Regelenergieaufgaben nutzt, und das den großräumigen Ausgleich Erneuerbarer Energien in Europa und den Nachbarregionen ermöglicht.

Effect of management strategies on the performance of ruminant livestock production systems and the safety of plant and animal products in the city of Sikasso, Mali

The regional population growth in West Africa, and especially its urban centers, will bring about new and critical challenges for urban development policy, especially in terms of ensuring food security and providing employment for the growing population. (Peri-) urban livestock and vegetable production systems, which can contribute significantly to these endeavours, are limited by various constraints, amongst them limited access to expensive production factors and their (in)efficient use. To achieve sustainable production systems with low consumer health risks, that can meet the urban increased demand, this doctoral thesis determined nutrient use efficiencies in representative (peri-) urban livestock production systems in three West African cities, and investigated potential health risks for consumers ensuing from there. The field study, which was conducted during July 2007 to December 2009, undertook a comparative analysis of (peri-) urban livestock production strategies across 210 livestock keeping households (HH) in the three West African cities of Kano/Nigeria (84 HH), Bobo Dioulasso/Burkina Faso (63 HH) and Sikasso/Mali (63 HH). These livestock enterprises were belonging to the following three farm types: commercial gardening plus field crops and livestock (cGCL; 88 HH), commercial livestock plus subsistence field cropping (cLsC; 109 HH) and commercial gardening plus semi-commercial livestock (cGscL; 13 HH) which had been classified in a preceding study; they represented the diversity of (peri-) urban livestock production systems in West Africa. In the study on the efficiency of ruminant livestock production, lactating cowsand sheep herd units were differentiated based on whether feed supplements were offered to the animals at the homestead (Go: grazing only; Gsf: mainly grazing plus some supplement feeding). Inflows and outflows of nutrients were quantified in these herds during 18 months, and the effects of seasonal variations in nutrient availability on animals’ productivity and reproductive performance was determined in Sikasso. To assess the safety of animal products and vegetables, contamination sources of irrigated lettuce and milk with microbiological contaminants, and of tomato and cabbage with pesticide residues in (peri-) urban agriculture systems of Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso were characterized at three occasions in 2009. Samples of irrigation water, organic fertilizer and ix lettuce were collected in 6 gardens, and samples of cabbage and tomato in 12 gardens; raw and curdled milk were sampled in 6 dairy herds. Information on health risks for consumers of such foodstuffs was obtained from 11 health centers in Sikasso. In (peri-) urban livestock production systems, sheep and goats dominated (P<0.001) in Kano compared to Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso, while cattle and poultry were more frequent (P<0.001) in Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso than in Kano. Across cities, ruminant feeding relied on grazing and homestead supplementation with fresh grasses, crop residues, cereal brans and cotton seed cake; cereal grains and brans were the major ingredients of poultry feeds. There was little association of gardens and livestock; likewise field cropping and livestock were rarely integrated. No relation existed between the education of the HH head and the adoption of improved management practices (P>0.05), but the proportion of HH heads with a long-term experience in (peri-) urban agriculture was higher in Kano and in Bobo Dioulasso than in Sikasso (P<0.001). Cattle and sheep fetched highest market prices in Kano; unit prices for goats and chicken were highest in Sikasso. Animal inflow, outflow and dairy herd growth rates were significantly higher (P<0.05) in the Gsf than in the Go cattle herds. Maize bran and cottonseed expeller were the main feeds offered to Gsf cows as dry-season supplement, while Gsf sheep received maize bran, fresh grasses and cowpea pods. The short periodic transhumance of Go dairy cows help them maintaining their live weight, whereas Gsf cows lost weight during the dry season despite supplement feeding at a rate of 1506 g dry matter per cow and day, resulting in low productivity and reproductive performance. The daily live weight gains of calves and lambs, respectively, were low and not significantly different between the Go and the Gsf system. However, the average live weight gains of lambs were significantly higher in the dry season (P<0.05) than in the rainy season because of the high pressure of gastrointestinal parasites and of Trypanosoma sp. In consequence, 47% of the sheep leaving the Go and Gsf herds died due to diseases during the study period. Thermo-tolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli contamination levels of irrigation water significantly exceeded WHO recommendations for the unrestricted irrigation of vegetables consumed raw. Microbial contamination levels of lettuce at the farm gate and the market place in Bobo Dioulasso and at the farm gate in Sikasso were higher than at the market place in Sikasso (P<0.05). Pesticide residues were detected in only one cabbage and one tomato sample and were below the maximum residue limit for consumption. Counts of thermo-tolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli were higher in curdled than in raw milk (P<0.05). From 2006 to x 2009, cases of diarrhea/vomiting and typhoid fever had increased by 11% and 48%, respectively, in Sikasso. For ensuring economically successful and ecologically viable (peri-) urban livestock husbandry and food safety of (peri-) urban foodstuffs of animal and plant origin, the dissemination and adoption of improved feeding practices, livestock healthcare and dung management are key. In addition, measures fostering the safety of animal products and vegetables including the appropriate use of wastewater in (peri-) urban agriculture, restriction to approve vegetable pesticides and the respect of their latency periods, and passing and enforcement of safety laws is required. Finally, the incorporation of environmentally sound (peri-) urban agriculture in urban planning by policy makers, public and private extension agencies and the urban farmers themselves is of utmost importance. To enable an efficient (peri-) urban livestock production in the future, research should concentrate on cost-effective feeding systems that allow meeting the animals’ requirement for production and reproduction. Thereby focus should be laid on the use of crop-residues and leguminous forages. The improvement of the milk production potential through crossbreeding of local cattle breeds with exotic breeds known for their high milk yield might be an accompanying option, but it needs careful supervision to prevent the loss of the local trypanotolerant purebreds.

The competitiveness of domestic rice production in East Africa: A domestic resource cost approach in Uganda

The rapid increase of rice imports in sub-Saharan Africa under the unstable situation in the world rice market during the 2000s has made it an important policy target for the countries in the region to increase self-sufficiency in rice in order to enhance food security. Whether domestic rice production can be competitive with imported rice is a serious question in East African countries that lie close, just across the Arabian Sea, to major rice exporting countries in South Asia. This study investigates the international competitiveness of domestic rice production in Uganda in terms of the domestic resource cost ratio. The results show that rainfed rice cultivation, which accounts for 95% of domestic rice production, does not have a comparative advantage with respect to rice imported from Pakistan, the largest supplier of imported rice to Uganda. However, the degree of non-competitiveness is not serious, and a high possibility exists for Uganda’s rainfed rice cultivation to become internationally competitive by improving yield levels by applying more modern inputs and enhancing labour productivity. Irrigated rice cultivation, though very limited in area, is competitive even under the present input-output structure when the cost of irrigation infrastructure is treated as a sunk cost. If the cost of installing irrigation infrastructure and its operation and maintenance is taken into account, the types of irrigation development that are economically feasible are not large-scale irrigation projects, but are small- and microscale projects for lowland rice cultivation and rain-water harvesting for upland rice cultivation.

Determinants of technical efficiency of freshwater prawn farming in southwestern Bangladesh

This paper estimates a translog stochastic production function to examine the determinants of technical efficiency of freshwater prawn farming in Bangladesh. Primary data has been collected using random sampling from 90 farmers of three villages in southwestern Bangladesh. Prawn farming displayed much variability in technical efficiency ranging from 9.50 to 99.94% with mean technical efficiency of 65%, which suggested a substantial 35% of potential output can be recovered by removing inefficiency. For a land scarce country like Bangladesh this gain could help increase income and ensure better livelihood for the farmers. Based on the translog production function specification, farmers could be made scale efficient by providing more input to produce more output. The results suggest that farmers’ education and non-farm income significantly improve efficiency whilst farmers’ training, farm distance from the water canal and involvement in fish farm associations reduces efficiency. Hence, the study proposes strategies such as less involvement in farming-related associations and raising the effective training facilities of the farmers as beneficial adjustments for reducing inefficiency. Moreover, the key policy implication of the analysis is that investment in primary education would greatly improve technical efficiency.

Derivation of an Efficient Rule System Pattern Matcher

Formalizing algorithm derivations is a necessary prerequisite for developing automated algorithm design systems. This report describes a derivation of an algorithm for incrementally matching conjunctive patterns against a growing database. This algorithm, which is modeled on the Rete matcher used in the OPS5 production system, forms a basis for efficiently implementing a rule system. The highlights of this derivation are: (1) a formal specification for the rule system matching problem, (2) derivation of an algorithm for this task using a lattice-theoretic model of conjunctive and disjunctive variable substitutions, and (3) optimization of this algorithm, using finite differencing, for incrementally processing new data.

Contribuyendo al reto de la sostenibilidad: el sistema producto- servicio en la industria de la moda rápida

El presente proyecto de grado se inscribe bajo el proyecto de Responsabilidad Social Empresarial de la línea de investigación de Realidad Empresarial de la Facultad de Administración de la Universidad del Rosario. El problema de investigación surge de dos problemas actuales, que convergen en la insostenibilidad a largo y mediano plazo de la manera en que se hacen la mayoría de los negocios hoy en día. El primer problema, es el de suficiencia, se evidencia desde el punto de vista del consumidor, el cual pareciera estar diseñado para comprar y acumular objetos y cosas que luego de un tiempo irán a parar a la basura. El segundo problema es el modelo de negocio que extrae recursos, los transforma, los comercializa de manera repetitiva y obliga al cliente a seguir comprando, olvidando que la mayoría de cosas que produce, terminan en el basurero. La deficiencia actual del consumismo insostenible y del diseño que no piensa en las generaciones futuras son dos caras de la misma moneda. Por eso es que se estudia el problema desde la perspectiva tanto del consumidor, como del productor. Las tendencias internacionales relacionadas con la sostenibilidad están llevando a los negocios por una nueva senda, la cual les dará ventajas competitivas a los adoptadores tempranos. A raíz de los problemas planteados y con el objetivo de encontrar la sostenibilidad empresarial, se estudia una posible solución para cada actor del problema. Por el lado del consumidor, se analiza la teoría que gira alrededor del consumo responsable y de cómo los consumidores tienen el poder de causar un efecto positivo con lo que mejor saben hacer: comprando (y eligiendo que comprar). Por el lado del productor se estudia un nuevo modelo de negocios llamado el sistema producto-servicio, el cual se enfoca a satisfacer necesidades de los clientes por medio de una combinación de prestación de servicios y facilitación de productos, en vez de la comercialización de estos. Es decir que en vez de vender cosas que los consumidores quieran acumular (problema de suficiencia), se les vende soluciones que satisfagan sus necesidades, reteniendo la compañía la propiedad sobre los productos que integran al servicio. Se estudia también de que maneras este modelo particular de sistemas producto-servicio puede ser recibido por los consumidores de hoy en día, tan acostumbrados al modelo actual. Se quiere explorar el sistema de productos y servicio como una alternativa empresarial perdurable que solucione los retos ambientales del siglo XXI. Para poder probar la viabilidad de este hipotético modelo que cambia los patrones de interacción de las empresas con los usuarios, se plantea una idea de negocio que integre productos y servicios para satisfacer las necesidades del cliente. Se escogió un área viii caracterizada por ser de las más consumistas y acumuladoras en cuanto al volumen de compras anual de los clientes: el negocio de la ropa. Y no solo cualquier tipo de ropa, sino el de la moda rápida, un modelo que obliga a los consumidores a comprar ropa con una frecuencia aún mayor. Se hizo esto con el objetivo de probar que el modelo propuesto puede funcionar inclusive bajo los supuestos más “consumistas” que existen hoy en día.

The Ergonomic Analysis and Back Injuries in Flexible Production System

Back injuries identification and diagnoses in the transition of the Taylor model to the flexiblemodel of production organization, demands a parallel intervention of prevention actors at work. This study uses simultaneously three intervention models (structured action analysis, muscle skeletal symptoms questionnaires and muscle skeletal assessment) for work activities in a packaging plant. In this study seventy and two (72) operative workers participated (28 workers with muscle skeletal evaluation). In an intervention period of 10 months, the physical, cognitive, organizational components and productive process dynamics were evaluated from the muscle skeletal demands issues. The differences established between objective exposure at risk, back injury risk perception, appreciation and a vertebral spine evaluation, in prior and post intervention, determines the structure for a muscle skeletal risk management system. This study explains that back injury symptoms can be more efficiently reduced among operative workers combining measures registered and the adjustment between dynamics, the changes at work and efficient gestures development. Relevance: the results of this study can be used to pre ent back injuries in workers of flexible production processes.

Contrasting Effects of Cattle Grazing Intensity on Upland-Nesting Duck Production at Nest and Field Scales in the Aspen Parkland, Canada

The Aspen Parkland of Canada is one of the most important breeding areas for temperate nesting ducks in North America. The region is dominated by agricultural land use, with approximately 9.3 million ha in pasture land for cattle grazing. However, the effects of using land for cattle grazing on upland-nesting duck production are poorly understood. The current study was undertaken during 2001 and 2002 to investigate how nest density and nesting success of upland-nesting ducks varied with respect to the intensity of cattle grazing in the Aspen Parkland. We predicted that the removal and trampling of vegetation through cattle grazing would reduce duck nest density. Both positive and negative responses of duck nesting success to grazing have been reported in previous studies, leading us to test competing hypotheses that nesting success would (1) decline linearly with grazing intensity or (2) peak at moderate levels of grazing. Nearly 3300 ha of upland cover were searched during the study. Despite extensive and severe drought, nest searches located 302 duck nests. As predicted, nest density was higher in fields with lower grazing intensity and higher pasture health scores. A lightly grazed field with a pasture score of 85 out of a possible 100 was predicted to have 16.1 nests/100 ha (95% CI = 11.7–22.1), more than five times the predicted nest density of a heavily grazed field with a pasture score of 58 (3.3 nests/100 ha, 95% CI = 2.2–4.5). Nesting success was positively related to nest-site vegetation density across most levels of grazing intensity studied, supporting our hypothesis that reductions in vegetation caused by grazing would negatively affect nesting success. However, nesting success increased with grazing intensity at the field scale. For example, nesting success for a well-concealed nest in a lightly grazed field was 11.6% (95% CI = 3.6–25.0%), whereas nesting success for a nest with the same level of nest-site vegetation in a heavily grazed field was 33.9% (95% CI = 17.0–51.8%). Across the range of residual cover observed in this study, nests with above-average nest-site vegetation density had nesting success rates that exceeded the levels believed necessary to maintain duck populations. Our findings on complex and previously unreported relationships between grazing, nest density, and nesting success provide useful insights into the management and conservation of ground-nesting grassland birds.

Patch Scale Nest-Site Selection by Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus)

The Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) is a threatened alcid that nests almost exclusively in old-growth forests along the Pacific coast of North America. Nesting habitat has significant economic importance. Murrelet nests are extremely difficult and costly to find, which adds uncertainty to management and conservation planning. Models based on air photo interpretation of forest cover maps or assessments by low-level helicopter flights are currently used to rank presumed Marbled Murrelet nesting habitat quality in British Columbia. These rankings are assumed to correlate with nest usage and murrelet breeding productivity. Our goal was to find the models that best predict Marbled Murrelet nesting habitat in the ground-accessible portion of the two regions studied. We generated Resource Selection Functions (RSF) using logistic regression models of ground-based forest stand variables gathered at plots around 64 nests, located using radio-telemetry, versus 82 random habitat plots. The RSF scores are proportional to the probability of nests occurring in a forest patch. The best models differed somewhat between the two regions, but include both ground variables at the patch scale (0.2-2.0 ha), such as platform tree density, height and trunk diameter of canopy trees and canopy complexity, and landscape scale variables such as elevation, aspect, and slope. Collecting ground-based habitat selection data would not be cost-effective for widespread use in forestry management; air photo interpretation and low-level aerial surveys are much more efficient methods for ranking habitat suitability on a landscape scale. This study provides one method for ground-truthing the remote methods, an essential step made possible using the numerical RSF scores generated herein.

Mortality of Migratory Birds from Marine Commercial Fisheries and Offshore Oil and Gas Production in Canada

There is an imminent need for conservation and best-practice management efforts in marine ecosystems where global-scale declines in the biodiversity and biomass of large vertebrate predators are increasing and marine communities are being altered. We examine two marine-based industries that incidentally take migratory birds in Canada: (1) commercial fisheries, through bycatch, and (2) offshore oil and gas exploration, development, and production. We summarize information from the scientific literature and technical reports and also present new information from recently analyzed data to assess the magnitude and scope of mortality. Fisheries bycatch was responsible for the highest levels of incidental take of migratory bird species; estimated combined take in the longline, gillnet, and bottom otter trawl fisheries within the Atlantic, including the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Pacific regions was 2679 to 45,586 birds per year. For the offshore oil and gas sector, mortality estimates ranged from 188 to 4494 deaths per year due to the discharge of produced waters resulting in oil sheens and collisions with platforms and vessels; however these estimates for the oil and gas sector are based on many untested assumptions. In spite of the uncertainties, we feel levels of mortality from these two industries are unlikely to affect the marine bird community in Canada, but some effects on local populations from bycatch are likely. Further research and monitoring will be required to: (1) better estimate fisheries-related mortality for vulnerable species and populations that may be impacted by local fisheries, (2) determine the effects of oil sheens from produced waters, and attraction to platforms and associated mortality from collisions, sheens, and flaring, so that better estimates of mortality from the offshore oil and gas sector can be obtained, and (3) determine impacts associated with accidental spills, which are not included in our current assessment. With a better understanding of the direct mortality of marine birds from industry, appropriate mitigation and management actions can be implemented. Cooperation from industry for data collection, research to fill knowledge gaps, and implementation of mitigation approaches will all be needed to conserve marine birds in Canada.

Top-down solar modulation of climate: evidence for centennial-scale change

During the descent into the recent ‘exceptionally’ low solar minimum, observations have revealed a larger change in solar UV emissions than seen at the same phase of previous solar cycles. This is particularly true at wavelengths responsible for stratospheric ozone production and heating. This implies that ‘top-down’ solar modulation could be a larger factor in long-term tropospheric change than previously believed, many climate models allowing only for the ‘bottom-up’ effect of the less-variable visible and infrared solar emissions. We present evidence for long-term drift in solar UV irradiance, which is not found in its commonly used proxies. In addition, we find that both stratospheric and tropospheric winds and temperatures show stronger regional variations with those solar indices that do show long-term trends. A top-down climate effect that shows long-term drift (and may also be out of phase with the bottom-up solar forcing) would change the spatial response patterns and would mean that climate-chemistry models that have sufficient resolution in the stratosphere would become very important for making accurate regional/seasonal climate predictions. Our results also provide a potential explanation of persistent palaeoclimate results showing solar influence on regional or local climate indicators.

Controls on boundary layer ventilation: Boundary layer processes and large-scale dynamics

Midlatitude cyclones are important contributors to boundary layer ventilation. However, it is uncertain how efficient such systems are at transporting pollutants out of the boundary layer, and variations between cyclones are unexplained. In this study 15 idealized baroclinic life cycles, with a passive tracer included, are simulated to identify the relative importance of two transport processes: horizontal divergence and convergence within the boundary layer and large-scale advection by the warm conveyor belt. Results show that the amount of ventilation is insensitive to surface drag over a realistic range of values. This indicates that although boundary layer processes are necessary for ventilation they do not control the magnitude of ventilation. A diagnostic for the mass flux out of the boundary layer has been developed to identify the synoptic-scale variables controlling the strength of ascent in the warm conveyor belt. A very high level of correlation (R-2 values exceeding 0.98) is found between the diagnostic and the actual mass flux computed from the simulations. This demonstrates that the large-scale dynamics control the amount of ventilation, and the efficiency of midlatitude cyclones to ventilate the boundary layer can be estimated using the new mass flux diagnostic. We conclude that meteorological analyses, such as ERA-40, are sufficient to quantify boundary layer ventilation by the large-scale dynamics.

Toward a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: Determination of the working spatial scale

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r(2) = 0.62 (significance level p < 10(-4)) and a negative correlation with r(2) = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (similar to 300 km), the first principal component (PC) of rainfall is correlated well with the first PC of yield (r(2) = 0.53, p < 10(-4)), demonstrating that the large-scale patterns picked out by the EOFs are related. The physical significance of this result is demonstrated. Use of larger averaging areas for the EOF analysis resulted in lower and (over time) less robust correlations. Because of this loss of detail when using larger spatial scales, the subdivisional scale is suggested as an upper limit on the spatial scale for the proposed forecasting system. Further, district-level EOFs of the yield data demonstrate the validity of upscaling these data to the subdivisional scale. Similar patterns have been produced using data on both of these scales, and the first PCs are very highly correlated (r(2) = 0.96). Hence, a working spatial scale has been identified, typical of that used in seasonal weather forecasting, that can form the basis of crop modeling work for the case of groundnut production in India. Last, the change in correlation between yield and seasonal rainfall during the study period has been examined using seasonal totals and monthly EOFs. A further link between yield and subseasonal variability is demonstrated via analysis of dynamical data.

The role of animal nutrition in improving the nutritive value of animal-derived foods in relation to chronic disease

Foods derived from animals are an important source of nutrients in the diet; for example, milk and meat together provide about 60 and 55% of the dietary intake of Ca and protein respectively in the UK. However, certain aspects of some animal-derived foods, particularly their fat and saturated fatty acid (SFA) contents, have led to concerns that these foods substantially contribute to the risk of CVD, the metabolic syndrome and other chronic diseases. In most parts of Europe dairy products are the greatest single dietary source of SFA. The fatty acid composition of various animal-derived foods is, however, not constant and can, in many cases, be enhanced by animal nutrition. In particular, milk fat with reduced concentrations of the C12-16 SFA and an increased concentration of 18:1 MUFA is achievable, although enrichment with very-long-chain n-3 PUFA is much less efficient. However, there is now evidence that some animal-derived foods (notably milk products) contain compounds that may actively promote long-term health, and research is urgently required to fully characterise the benefits associated with the consumption of these compounds and to understand how the levels in natural foods can be enhanced. It is also vital that the beneficial effects are not inadvertently destroyed in the process of reducing the concentrations of SFA. In the future the role of animal nutrition in creating foods closer to the optimum composition for long-term human health is likely to become increasingly important, but production of such foods on a scale that will substantially affect national diets will require political and financial incentives and great changes in the animal production industry.