The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

Sustainability assessment indicators and methodology for intelligent buildings

The sustainable intelligent building is a building that has the best combination of environmental, social, economic and technical values. And its sustainability assessment is related with system engineering methods and multi-criteria decision-making. Therefore firstly, the wireless monitoring system of sustainable parameters for intelligent buildings is achieved; secondly, the indicators and key issues based on the “whole life circle” for sustainability of intelligent buildings are researched; thirdly, the sustainable assessment model identified on the structure entropy and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is proposed.

Treatment of child anxiety in the context of maternal anxiety disorder: a randomised controlled trial and economic analysis

Background Cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) for childhood anxiety disorders is associated with modest outcomes in the context of parental anxiety disorder. Objectives This study evaluated whether or not the outcome of CBT for children with anxiety disorders in the context of maternal anxiety disorders is improved by the addition of (i) treatment of maternal anxiety disorders, or (ii) treatment focused on maternal responses. The incremental cost-effectiveness of the additional treatments was also evaluated. Design Participants were randomised to receive (i) child cognitive–behavioural therapy (CCBT); (ii) CCBT with CBT to target maternal anxiety disorders [CCBT + maternal cognitive–behavioural therapy (MCBT)]; or (iii) CCBT with an intervention to target mother–child interactions (MCIs) (CCBT + MCI). Setting A NHS university clinic in Berkshire, UK. Participants Two hundred and eleven children with a primary anxiety disorder, whose mothers also had an anxiety disorder. Interventions All families received eight sessions of individual CCBT. Mothers in the CCBT + MCBT arm also received eight sessions of CBT targeting their own anxiety disorders. Mothers in the MCI arm received 10 sessions targeting maternal parenting cognitions and behaviours. Non-specific interventions were delivered to balance groups for therapist contact. Main outcome measures Primary clinical outcomes were the child’s primary anxiety disorder status and degree of improvement at the end of treatment. Follow-up assessments were conducted at 6 and 12 months. Outcomes in the economic analyses were identified and measured using estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). QALYS were combined with treatment, health and social care costs and presented within an incremental cost–utility analysis framework with associated uncertainty. Results MCBT was associated with significant short-term improvement in maternal anxiety; however, after children had received CCBT, group differences were no longer apparent. CCBT + MCI was associated with a reduction in maternal overinvolvement and more confident expectations of the child. However, neither CCBT + MCBT nor CCBT + MCI conferred a significant post-treatment benefit over CCBT in terms of child anxiety disorder diagnoses [adjusted risk ratio (RR) 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87 to 1.62, p = 0.29; adjusted RR CCBT + MCI vs. control: adjusted RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.67, p = 0.20, respectively] or global improvement ratings (adjusted RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.59, p = 0.05; adjusted RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.53, p = 0.13). CCBT + MCI outperformed CCBT on some secondary outcome measures. Furthermore, primary economic analyses suggested that, at commonly accepted thresholds of cost-effectiveness, the probability that CCBT + MCI will be cost-effective in comparison with CCBT (plus non-specific interventions) is about 75%. Conclusions Good outcomes were achieved for children and their mothers across treatment conditions. There was no evidence of a benefit to child outcome of supplementing CCBT with either intervention focusing on maternal anxiety disorder or maternal cognitions and behaviours. However, supplementing CCBT with treatment that targeted maternal cognitions and behaviours represented a cost-effective use of resources, although the high percentage of missing data on some economic variables is a shortcoming. Future work should consider whether or not effects of the adjunct interventions are enhanced in particular contexts. The economic findings highlight the utility of considering the use of a broad range of services when evaluating interventions with this client group. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN19762288. Funding This trial was funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) and Berkshire Healthcare Foundation Trust and managed by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) on behalf of the MRC–NIHR partnership (09/800/17) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 38.

Towards a meta-analysis and toolkit for port-related socio-economic impacts: a review of socio-economic impact studies conducted for seaports

Port authorities increasingly need to communicate with a variety of external stakeholders in order to maintain and strengthen the societal acceptance of seaport activities. The availability of socio-economic impact studies on port authority and regional development agency websites has often made this information accessible to the public at large. However, the differences in methodologies adopted, in terms of selecting, defining and measuring various types of socio-economic impacts, sometimes lead to misconceptions as well as misleading comparisons across ports within and between regions. In this paper, we suggest guidelines for the design and application of a potential best practice from an interregional perspective (UK, France and Belgium), based on research in the framework of a European Commission co-funded project, ‘IMPACTE’. The paper also aims to develop guidelines for comparing the socio-economic impacts of ports across regional and national borders and discusses the development of a European port economic impact measurement toolkit. We analyse a sample of 33 recent socio-economic impact assessment reports in terms of methodologies adopted and types of impacts measured. The review shows a great diversity among these studies, leading to important differences between the impacts of port activity communicated to stakeholders.

Road network and GPS tracking with data processing and quality assessment

GPS technology has been embedded into portable, low-cost electronic devices nowadays to track the movements of mobile objects. This implication has greatly impacted the transportation field by creating a novel and rich source of traffic data on the road network. Although the promise offered by GPS devices to overcome problems like underreporting, respondent fatigue, inaccuracies and other human errors in data collection is significant; the technology is still relatively new that it raises many issues for potential users. These issues tend to revolve around the following areas: reliability, data processing and the related application. This thesis aims to study the GPS tracking form the methodological, technical and practical aspects. It first evaluates the reliability of GPS based traffic data based on data from an experiment containing three different traffic modes (car, bike and bus) traveling along the road network. It then outline the general procedure for processing GPS tracking data and discuss related issues that are uncovered by using real-world GPS tracking data of 316 cars. Thirdly, it investigates the influence of road network density in finding optimal location for enhancing travel efficiency and decreasing travel cost. The results show that the geographical positioning is reliable. Velocity is slightly underestimated, whereas altitude measurements are unreliable.Post processing techniques with auxiliary information is found necessary and important when solving the inaccuracy of GPS data. The densities of the road network influence the finding of optimal locations. The influence will stabilize at a certain level and do not deteriorate when the node density is higher.

Sediment toxicity assessment of Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Guanabara Bay (GB) comprises of estuarine and marine environments of high ecological and socio-economic relevance, together with port, industrial and urban areas. The anthropogenic activities produce environmental impacts, including the aquatic pollution. The sediment quality assessment is important to evaluate the effects of contamination, once sediments are a repository for most of the contaminants. In this Study, the quality of sediments from GB was evaluated, in rainy and dry periods, throughout the employment of acute toxicity tests with the amphipod Tiburonella viscana, and chronic bioassays with embryos of the sea-urchin Lytechinus variegatus. In the dry period, acute toxicity was found in the sediments from stations 1, 2 3 (NW) and 7 (near Guapimirim Environmental Protection Area). The bioassays with liquid phases showed effects, but were strongly influenced by the unionized ammonia levels, which were high in this period. In the rainy period, acute toxicity was found in sediments samples from stations 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12 and 15. Chronic toxicity could be clearly detected, as ammonia concentrations tended to be low in the most part of the samples. The results showed that the sediment toxicity is influenced by precipitation rates, which increase the input of contaminants to the Bay, and also allowed subdividing GB in three main zones: northwest (stations 1, 2, 3, 5), northeast (stations 6, 7, 8, 9) and centre-south (stations 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15). Results also showed that the quality of GB sediments is poor, and that toxicity tests could determine the combined effects of pollutants.

Assessment of agroeconomic indices in polycultures of lettuce, rocket and carrot through uni- and multivariate approaches in semi-arid Brazil

The polyculture among vegetables is an activity that to have good results, needs a proper planning. Although it often requires more labor, has several advantages over monoculture, among them is that polycultures are generally are more productive, provide with productivity of various plant constituents and a more balanced human diet, contribute to economic return, economic and yield stability, social benefits and farmer's direct participation in decision-making. The objective of this study was to evaluate agroeconomic indices of polycultures derived from the combination of two cultivars of lettuce with two cultivars of rocket in two cultures strip-intercropped with carrot cultivar 'Brasilia' through uni-multivariate approaches in semi-arid Brazil. The experimental design used was of randomized complete blocks with five replications and the treatments arranged in a factorial scheme of 2 x 2. The treatments consisted of the combination of two lettuce cultivars (Baba de Verao and Taina) with two rocket cultivars (Cultivada and Folha Larga) in two cultures associated with carrot cv. Brasilia. hi each block were grown plots with two lettuce cultivars and two rocket cultivars, and carrot in sole crop. In each system was determined the lettuce leaf yield, rocket green mass yield and carrot commercial yield. Agrieconomic indices such as operational cost, gross and net income, monetary advantage, rate of return, profit margin, land equivalent ratio and yield efficiency for DEA were used to measure the efficiency of intercropping systems. In the bicropping of lettuce and rocket associated with carrot cv. 'Brasilia', suggests the use of lettuce cultivar 'Taina' combined with rocket cultivars 'Cultivada' or 'Folha Larga'. It was observed significant effect of lettuce cultivars in the evaluation of polycultures of lettuce, carrot and rocket, with strong expression for the lettuce cultivar 'Taina'. Both uni- and multivariate approaches were effective in the discrimination of the best polycultures. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population structure and stock assessment of Hoplias malabaricus (Characiformes: Erythrinidae) caught by artisanal fishermen in river-reservoir transition area in Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Laboratory Assessment of two Active Ingredients for Control of Coptotermes gestroi (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae)

The subterranean termite Coptotermes gestroi Wasmann (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) is a pest of major economic importance in urban environments of southeastern Brazil. Compared to using pesticides for termite control, termite bait products target termites more specifically and also address environmental contamination issues. In this point of view, we performed two different bioassays ill order to evaluate the efficacy of boric acid and fipronil against different populations of C. gestroi. The results showed that concentration between 2000 and 3000 ppm of boric acid caused approximately 100 percent mortality ill termites. Concentrations between 0.01 and 0.0001 ppm of fipronil resulted in 100% termite mortality after 2 wk exposure. The data displayed a fast mortality of termites contaminated with fipronil, even with small concentrations, and therefore it is riot a Suitable product to be used ill baits against C gestroi. The present Study showed a delayed toxicity of boric acid against the subterranean termite C gestroi which suggests a need for further field tests.

Economic valuation of the Emas waterfall, Mogi-Guaçu River, SP, Brazil

A Cachoeira de Emas, no Rio Mogi-Guaçu, é reconhecida regionalmente como um importante local para a pesca e o turismo. Os primeiros registros da pesca profissional e esportiva no local datam da década de 30, que é o mesmo período em que a atividade do turismo teve seu início. O presente artigo fornece uma valoração ambiental deste local e identifica as diferenças entre os principais grupos de pessoas que o frequentam. Durante o ano de 2006 nós entrevistamos 33 pescadores profissionais, 107 pescadores esportivos, 45 turistas e 103 excursionistas para estimar a Disposição a Pagar ( P) de cada categoria e para analisar a influência de fatores socioeconômicos através de regressões logísticas e ANCOVAs. A DAP dos pescadores profissionais foi significativamente influenciada pela idade e escolaridade e a DAP dos pescadores esportivos foi significativamente influenciada pela renda familiar. As variáveis que influenciaram a DAP dos turistas e excursionistas fora o sexo e a escolaridade. valor anual total agregado para manter a Cachoeira nas condições atuais foi estimado em US$ 81.080,00, e US$ 44.055.911,46 para recuperá-la.

Environmental impact assessment in Brazil

Brazilian environmental impact assessment (EIA) had a relatively late birth and is still far from being operative by international standards. Currently, geological, economic, and social considerations are more highly valued. Nevertheless, EIA has become important in shaping governmental environmental policy. The state of São Paulo is responsible for 40% of all EIAs produced in Brazil, and the number of EIAs produced is proportional to state population density.

Economic viability and selection of irrigation systems using simulation and stochastic dominance

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Curauá fibers in the automobile industry - a sustainability assessment

Replacing glass fibers with natural fibers in the automobile industry can yield economic, environmental and social benefits. This article evaluates the prospective environmental impacts of automobile applications of curauá fiber (Ananas erectifolius), which nearly equates the physical properties of glass fibers. The study identified economic and social advantages of applying curauá fiber composites in car parts. Besides costing 50% less than fiber glass, the use of curauá fibers can promote regional development in the Amazon region. In order to realize significant environmental benefits, however, the curauá-based composites would have to be lighter than their glass fiber-based counterparts. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 1999-2000: summary

Includes bibliography

Economic survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 1998-1999: summary

Includes bibliography