Pliocene-Pleistocene biostratigraphic datums of ODP Site 184-1148

Based on the stable isotopic analysis of planktonic and benthic foraminifers from Ocean Drilling Program Core 1148 of the northern South China Sea (SCS), Pliocene-Pleistocene isotope stratigraphy and events have been reconstructed. The benthic foraminiferal delta18O record shows that the Pacific intermediate water had a greater influence upon the SCS or the Pacific deep water above ~2600 m was warmer before ~3.2Ma than at present. After that, the benthic delta18O conspicuously increased during the ~3.2-2.5 Ma period, in correspondence to the formation of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet, whereas the planktonic delta18O signal suggests a stepwise overall decrease of sea surface temperature during the ~2.2-0.9 Ma period. Compared to the equatorial Pacific records, the decrease in planktonic (Globigerinoides ruber) delta13C during the ~3.2-2.2 Ma period is particularly striking, suggesting that fertility of surface water increased noticeably. According to the modern delta13C distribution of G. ruber in the northern SCS, it is inferred that the East Asian winter monsoon strengthened during this interval. Afterwards, there were several conspicuous decreases of G. ruber delta13C at ~1.7, 1.3, 0.9, 0.45 and 0.15 Ma BP, that is, about every 0.4 Ma, suggesting that the East Asian winter monsoon became episodically stronger. This is confirmed by changes in relative abundance of planktonic foraminifer species Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, a typical East Asian winter monsoon proxy. The deepwater delta13C of the SCS is close to that of the Pacific, but lighter than that of the Atlantic, implying that the pattern of deep water originating mainly from the Atlantic and through the Pacific entering the SCS existed at least since the early Pliocene. After 1.4 Ma, the benthic delta13C signal decreased conspicuously but with a periodicity of ~100 ka, suggesting that the deep-water ventilation of the SCS was reduced, probably corresponding to a decrease of the North Atlantic Deep Water and/or further isolation of the SCS deep basin from the Pacific during glaciations.

Stable isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios on foraminifera and Ba/Ca ratios of sediment core SK168/GC-1

The past variability of the South Asian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea while high-resolution paleorecords from regions of strong monsoon precipitation are still lacking. Here, we present records of past monsoon variability obtained from sediment core SK 168/GC-1, which was collected at the Alcock Seamount complex in the Andaman Sea. We utilize the ecological habitats of different planktic foraminiferal species to reconstruct freshwater-induced stratification based on paired Mg/Ca and d18O analyses and to estimate seawater d18O (d18Osw). The difference between surface and thermocline temperatures (delta T) and d18Osw (delta d18Osw) is used to investigate changes in upper ocean stratification. Additionally, Ba/Ca in G. sacculifer tests is used as a direct proxy for riverine runoff and sea surface salinity (SSS) changes related to monsoon precipitation on land. Our delta d18Osw time series reveals that upper ocean salinity stratification did not change significantly throughout the last glacial suggesting little influence of NH insolation changes. The strongest increase in temperature gradients between the mixed layer and the thermocline is recorded for the mid-Holocene and indicate the presence of a significantly shallower thermocline. In line with previous work, the d18Osw and Ba/Ca records demonstrate that monsoon climate during the LGM was characterized by a significantly weaker southwest monsoon circulation and strongly reduced runoff. Based on our data the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SAM) over the Irrawaddyy strengthened gradually after the LGM beginning at ~18 ka. This is some 3 kyrs before an increase of the Ba/Ca record from the Arabian Sea and indicates that South Asian Monsoon climate dynamics are more complex than the simple N-S displacement of the ITCZ as generally described for other regions. Minimum d18Osw values recorded during the mid-Holocene are in phase with Ba/Ca marking a stronger monsoon precipitation, which is consistent with model simulations.

(Table 1) Age determination on monospecies planktonic foraminifera of sediment core AN25-934

Reconstruction of regional climate and the Okhotsk Sea (OS) environment for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), deglaciation and Holocene were performed on the basis of high-resolution records of ice rafted debris (IRD), CaCO3, opal, total organic carbon (TOC), biogenic Ba (Ba_bio) and redox sensitive element (Mn, Mo) content, and diatom and pollen results of four cores that form a north-southern transect. Age models of the studied cores were earlier established by AMS 14C data, oxygen - isotope chronostratigraphy and tephrochronology. According to received results, since 25 ka the regional climate and OS environmental conditions have changed synchronously with LGM condition, cold Heinrich event 1, Bølling -Allerød (BA) warming, Younger Dryas (YD) cooling and Pre-Boreal (PB) warming recorded in the Greenland ice core, North Atlantic sediment, and China cave stalagmites. Calculation of IRD MAR in sediment of north-south transect cores indicate an increase of sea ice formation several times in the glacial OS as compared to the Late Holocene. Accompanying ice formation, increased brine rejection and the larger potential density of surface water at the north shelf due to a drop of glacial East Asia summer monsoon precipitation and Amur River run off, led to strong enhancement of the role of the OS in glacial North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) formation. The remarkable increase in OS productivity during BA and PB warming was probably related with significant reorganisation of the North Pacific deep water ventilation and nutrient input into the NPIW and OS Intermediate Water (OSIW). Seven Holocene OS millennial cold events based on the elevated values of the detrended IRD stack record over the IRD broad trend in the sediments of the studied cores have occurred synchronously with cold events recorded in the North Atlantic, Greenland ice cores and China cave stalagmites after 9 ka. Diatom production in the OS were mostly controlled by sea ice cover changes and surface water stratification induced by sea-ice melting; therefore significant opal accumulation in sediments of this basin begin from 4-6 ka ago simultaneously with a remarkable decrease of sea ice cover.

(Table 1) Age determination of sediment core AAS-62/2

Variations in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity during the last 16.7?ka have been studied using organic carbon (Corg), d15N of sedimentary organic matter, CaCO3, sediment texture, d18OC, and Mg/Ca-derived sea surface temperature, d18O of sea water and sea surface salinity, in a 14C-dated sediment core from the eastern Arabian Sea. The d18O in water and planktonic foraminifera shells off the central west coast of India may be controlled by the ISM intensity as this area receives high precipitation and land runoff. Also, the Corg and CaCO3 contents of sediments and d15N of sedimentary organic matter may be linked to ISM-induced productivity and denitrification. The results of the present study reveal that between 16 and 15.2 ka BP, the ISM was weak with minor fluctuations and started intensifying around 15.2 ka BP, at the onset of the Bølling-Ållerød (B-A) event. The B-A event is characterized by higher water column denitrification rates comparable to the present day. The ISM signatures observed in the d18OC record of B-A event compare well with those from Timta cave of the western Himalayas and also the Asian summer monsoon signatures from the Hulu caves in China and warming signatures in Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) suggesting atmospheric teleconnections through Intertropical Convergence Zone. The boundary between the Younger Dryas and the Holocene is discernible with small episodes of abrupt events of increased ISM intensity. This decrease in d18OC values at ~11.8 ka BP is contemporary with June solar insolation maximum at 30° north and the increase in methane in the GISP2 ice core supporting episodes of warmer climate and increase in ISM intensity. The ISM seems to have been most stable between 7 and 5.6 ka BP. The core exhibits periodicity of 500 years that is comparable to the Atlantic water formation and the Chinese monsoon.

Drought index from tree-rings in Kongton Mountains, China

The Kongtong Mountain area is a marginal area of the Asian summer monsoon and is sensitive to monsoon dynamics. The sensitivity highlights the need to establishing long-term climate records there and evaluating links with the Asian monsoon. Using "signal-free" methods, we developed a tree-ring chronology based 52 ring-width series from 23 Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus armandidi trees in the Kongtong Mountain, northern China. Tree growth is highly correlated (0.844) with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from May to July, demonstrating the strength of PDSI in modeling drought conditions in this region. We therefore developed a robust May-July PDSI reconstruction spanning 1615-2009, which explained 71.2% of the instrumental variance for the period 1951-2005. Extremely dry epochs are found in periods of 1723-1727 and 1928-1932, and significant wet conditions are seen from 1696-1700, 1753-1757 and 1963-1969. These persistent dry and wet epochs were also found in northeastern Mongolia, suggesting similar drought regimes between these two regions. The dryness that occurred in the 1920s-1930s was the most severe and was concurrent with a warming period. This warming/drying relationship of the 1920s-1930s may be an analog to the current drying trend in northern China.

Age determination of sediment core GIK16523-1

High-resolution studies of a planktonic foraminifer core record from the South China Sea (SCS) (31KL: 18°45.4'N, 115°52.4'E, water depth 3360 m) reveal changes driven by ice-volume forcings in the climate of the East Asian monsoon in the western Pacific marginal sea during the late Quaternary. The analyses of planktonic foraminifer faunal abundance data from the core indicate significant variations in the relative abundances of the dominant taxa over the past 100,000 years since the isotope stage 5. The transfer function estimates of faunal sea surface temperatures (SST) correlate well with a long-term (104-105 years) trend of global glaciation. About 65,000 years ago, there was an observable change in the mode of SST variability as many low-latitude records have shown. These findings suggest that the SCS surface circulation and the East Asian winter monsoon systems are mainly driven by variations in global glaciation levels. The association of surface ocean cooling in the SCS with global climatic events suggests that fluctuations in the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon may be linked to shifts in the latitudinal position of the westerly winds and the Siberian high-pressure system.

Local and remote impacts of direct aerosol forcing on Asian monsoon

The impact of heating by black carbon aerosols on Indian summer monsoon has remained inconclusive. Some investigators have predicted that black carbon aerosols reduce monsoon rainfall while others have argued that it will increase monsoon rainfall. These conclusions have been based on local influence of aerosols on the radiative fluxes. The impact of aerosol-like heating in one region on the rainfall in a remote region has not been examined in detail. Here, using an atmospheric general circulation model, it has been shown that remote influence of aerosol-like heating can be as important as local influence on Indian summer monsoon. Precipitation in northern Arabian Sea and north-west Indian region increased by 16% in June to July when aerosol-like heating were present globally. The corresponding increase in precipitation due to presence of aerosol-like heating only over South Asia (local impact) and East Asia (remote impact) were 28 and 13%, respectively. This enhancement in precipitation was due to destabilization of the atmosphere in pre-monsoon season that affected subsequent convection. Moreover, pre-monsoon heating of the lower troposphere changed the circulation substantially that enabled influx of more moisture over certain regions and reduced the moist static stability of the atmosphere. It has been shown that regional aerosol heating can have large impact on the phase of upper tropospheric Rossby wave in pre-monsoon season, which acts as a primary mechanism behind teleconnection and leads to the change in precipitation during monsoon season. These results demonstrate that changes in aerosol in one region can influence the precipitation in a remote region through changes in circulation.

Synoptic preconditions for extreme flooding during the summer Asian Monsoon in the Mumbai area

The summer monsoon season is an important hydrometeorological feature of the Indian subcontinent and it has significant socioeconomic impacts. This study is aimed at understanding the processes associated with the occurrence of catastrophic flood events. The study has two novel features that add to the existing body of knowledge about the South Asian Monsoon: 1) combine traditional hydrometeorological observations (rain gauge measurements) with unconventional data (media and state historical records of reported flooding) to produce value-added century-long time-series of potential flood events, and 2) identify the larger regional synoptic conditions leading to days with flood potential in the time-series. The promise of mining unconventional data to extend hydrometeorological records is demonstrated in this study. The synoptic evolution of flooding events in the western-central coast of India and the densely populated Mumbai area are shown to correspond to active monsoon periods with embedded low-pressure centers and have far upstream influence from the western edge of the Indian Ocean basin. The coastal processes along the Arabian Peninsula where the currents interact with the continental shelf are found to be key features of extremes during the South Asian Monsoon

Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?

Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultrahigh resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

Influence of the Tibetan Plateau uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment evolution

As one of the most important geological events in Cenozoic era, the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has had profound influences on the Asian and global climate and environment evolution. During the past four decades, many scholars from China and abroad have studied climatic and environmental effects of the TP uplift by using a variety of geological records and paleoclimate numerical simulations. The existing research results enrich our understanding of the mechanisms of Asian monsoon changes and interior aridification, but so far there are still a lot of issues that need to be thought deeply and investigated further. This paper attempts to review the research on the influence of the TP uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment, summarize three types of numerical simulations including bulk-plateau uplift, phased uplift and sub-regional uplift, and especially to analyze regional differences in responses of climate and environment to different forms of tectonic uplifts. From previous modeling results, the land-sea distribution and the Himalayan uplift may have a large effect in the establishment and development of the South Asian monsoon. However, the formation and evolution of the monsoon in northern East Asia, the intensified dryness north of the TP and enhanced Asian dust cycle may be more closely related to the uplift of the main body, especially the northern part of the TP. In this review, we also discuss relative roles of the TP uplift and other impact factors, origins of the South Asian monsoon and East Asian monsoon, feedback effects and nonlinear responses of climatic and environmental changes to the plateau uplift. Finally, we make comparisons between numerical simulations and geological records, discuss their uncertainties, and highlight some problems worthy of further studying.

Ocean atmosphere coupling over monsoon regions

In monsoon regions, the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is manifested as a seasonal reversal of winds. Most of the summer monsoon rainfall over India occurs owing to synoptic and large-scale convection associated with the continental ITCZ (Fig. 1). We have investigated the interaction between these large-scale convective systems and the ocean over which they are generated1â3, concentrating on the relationship between organized convection over the Indian Ocean and sea surface temperature (SST). We report here that on a monthly basis the degree of cloudiness correlates well with SST for the relatively colder oceans, but when SST is maintained above 28 °C it ceases to be an important factor in determining the variability of cloudiness. Over the major regions of convection east of 70°E, which are warm year after year, the observed cloudiness cannot be correlated with variations in SST.

On global summer monsoonal drought mechanics

It is shown that within the framework of a linear five-level quasi-geostrophic steady state global model the middle latitude systems can always have significant influence on the Asian summer monsoonal system through the lower tropospheric monsoonal westerly window region around 80°E. It is hypothesized that quasistationarity of the middle latitude longwave systems results in stronger teleconnections through this window and the consequent monsoon breaks when the phase is right.