Debt management in Brazil: evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead

The Brazilian domestic debt has posed two challenges to policy-makers: it has grown very fast and its maturity is extremely short. This has prompted fears that a default or a compulsory lengthening scheme would be imposed. Here, we analyse the domestic public debt management experience in Brazil, searching for policy prescriptions for the next few years. After briefiy reviewing the recent domestic public debt history, we decompose the large rise in federal bonded debt during 1995-2000, searching for its macroeconomic causes. The main culprits are the extremely high interest payments-which, unti11998, were caused by the weak fiscal stance and the quasi-fixed exchange-rate regime; and since 1999, by the impact ofthe currency depreciation On the dollar-indexed and the externai debt-, and the accumulation of assets of doubtful value, much of which may have to be written off in the future. Simulation exercises of the net debt path for the near future underscore the importance of a tighter fiscal stance to prevent the debt-GDP ratio from growing further. Given the need to quickly lengthen the debt maturity, our main policy advice is to foster, and rely more on, infiation-linked bonds.

Public debt management, monetary policy and financial institutions

Despite the large size of the Brazilian debt market, as well the large diversity of its bonds, the picture that emerges is of a market that has not yet completed its transition from the role it performed during the megainflation years, namely that of providing a liquid asset that provided positive real returns. This unfinished transition is currently placing the market under severe stress, as fears of a possible default from the next administration grow larger. This paper analyzes several aspects pertaining to the management of the domestic public debt. The causes for the extremely large and fast growth ofthe domestic public debt during the seven-year period that President Cardoso are discussed in Section 2. Section 3 computes Value at Risk and Cash Flow at Risk measures for the domestic public debt. The rollover risk is introduced in a mean-variance framework in Section 4. Section 5 discusses a few issues pertaining to the overlap between debt management and monetary policy. Finally, Section 6 wraps up with policy discussion and policy recommendations.

Value-for-money e geração de valor público na atuação das organizações sociais de saúde : contribuições para o governo do estado de São Paulo

O fato de que o Estado brasileiro deve, de acordo com sua Carta Magna, garantir o direito de seus cidadãos à saúde não significa, necessariamente, que a provisão destes serviços tem de ser feita diretamente pelo poder público. As parcerias com organizações sociais, previstas na Lei Federal 9.637/1998 e regulamentadas pelos Contratos de Gestão, pretendem oferecer uma alternativa à eficiência, agilidade e flexibilidade na assistência à saúde. Entretanto, a estrutura dos contratos de gestão com Organizações Sociais de Saúde (OSS), elaborada com a pactuação de metas e indicadores de desempenho, não pode ser considerada, isoladamente, como fator garantidor da prestação adequada de tais serviços públicos. É fundamental considerar neste contexto os arranjos organizados pelo poder público para assegurar que os serviços oferecidos representam o que, de fato, os cidadãos consideram valor. O presente trabalho tem como objeto as parcerias com OSS no âmbito do governo do estado de São Paulo. As entrevistas realizadas e as pesquisas empreendidas na confecção deste estudo revelam que, caso se pretenda trabalhar com estas parcerias sob uma perspectiva de value-for-money e geração de valor público, faz-se necessário aprimorar os mecanismos de escuta aos cidadãos, os arranjos de governança colaborativa entre entes federados, o alinhamento com órgãos de controle e, sobretudo, qualificar a capacidade organizacional do Estado e das OSS, por meio da revisão das metas e indicadores dispostos nos contratos de gestão.

Análise dos fundamentos do modelo value-based health care delivery à luz das teorias de estratégia

O setor de saúde, globalmente, apresenta problemas relacionados aos seus custos, qualidade e acesso. Porter e Teisberg (2004, 2006) propuseram modelo de gestão específico para a administração estratégica na área, o Value-Based Health Care Delivery (VBHCD). O modelo teve relativa repercussão e vem influenciando muitos atores no setor. Contudo, o modelo vem sendo aceito sem o devido questionamento de seus fundamentos e consistência com a teoria em estratégia. O presente trabalho busca, por meio de um ensaio teórico, analisar o modelo proposto à luz de paradigmas gerais da estratégia empresarial como, por exemplo, o modelo de Porter e a Visão Baseada em Recursos (RBV). Inicialmente, o artigo sintetiza as explicações teóricas do modelo porteriano clássico e da RBV. Em seguida, o VBHCD é examinado comparado a essas explicações, buscando-se relações e, eventualmente, contradições. Conclui-se que o modelo VBHCD não se alinha integralmente a nenhum corpo teórico isoladamente. Mesmo sendo proposto por Porter, parte de seus fundamentos advém, na verdade, de outras correntes teóricas. Esta abordagem integradora de teorias concorrentes, apesar de presente na literatura, ainda apresenta dificuldades e barreiras, um aspecto que não está explícito no modelo

The impact of negative social environmental events on the market value of supply chain partners

The present work analyzes the impact of negative social / environmental events on the market value of supply chain partners. The study offers a contextualized discussion around important concepts which are largely employed on the Operations Management and Management literature in general. Among them, the developments of the literature around supply chains, supply chain management, corporate social responsibility, sustainable development and sustainable supply chain management are particularly addressed, beyond the links they share with competitive advantage. As for the theoretical bases, the study rests on the Stakeholder Theory, on the discussion of the efficient-market hypothesis and on the discussion of the adjustment of stock prices to new information. In face of such literature review negative social / environmental events are then hypothesized as causing negative impact in the market value of supply chain partners. Through the documental analysis of publicly available information around 15 different cases (i.e. 15 events), 82 supply chain partners were identified. Event studies for seven different event windows were conducted on the variation of the stock price of each supply chain partner, valuing the market reaction to the stock price of a firm due to triggering events occurred in another. The results show that, in general, the market value of supply chain partners was not penalized in response to such announcements. In that sense, the hypothesis derived from the literature review is not confirmed. Beyond that, the study also provides a critical description of the 15 cases, identifying the companies that have originated such events and their supply chain partners involved.

An evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for value-at-risk estimation

Market risk exposure plays a key role for nancial institutions risk management. A possible measure for this exposure is to evaluate losses likely to incurwhen the price of the portfolio's assets declines using Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates, one of the most prominent measure of nancial downside market risk. This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for VaR estimation. The approach is based on an extension of the possibilistic fuzzy c-means clustering and functional fuzzy rule-based modeling, which employs memberships and typicalities to update clusters and creates new clusters based on a statistical control distance-based criteria. ePFM also uses an utility measure to evaluate the quality of the current cluster structure. Computational experiments consider data of the main global equity market indexes of United States, London, Germany, Spain and Brazil from January 2000 to December 2012 for VaR estimation using ePFM, traditional VaR benchmarks such as Historical Simulation, GARCH, EWMA, and Extreme Value Theory and state of the art evolving approaches. The results show that ePFM is a potential candidate for VaR modeling, with better performance than alternative approaches.

Desempenho do value-at-risk nos países emergentes e desenvolvidos

O estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a capacidade preditiva dos modelos de estimação do risco de mercado em momentos de crises financeiras. Para isso, foram testados modelos de estimação do Value-at-Risk (VaR) aplicados aos retornos diários de carteiras compostas por índices de ações de países desenvolvidos e emergentes. Foram testados o modelo VaR de Simulação Histórica, modelos ARCH multivariados (Bekk, Vech e CCC), Redes Neurais Artificiais e funções Cópulas. A amostra de dados refere-se aos períodos de duas crises financeiras internacionais, Crise Asiática, de 1997, e Crise do Sub Prime dos EUA, de 2008. Os resultados apontaram que os modelos ARCH multivariados (Vech e Bekk) e Cópula - Clayton tiveram desempenho semelhantes, com bons ajustes em 100% dos testes. Diferentemente do que era esperado, não foi possível perceber diferenças significativas entre os ajustes para países desenvolvidos e emergentes e os momentos de crise e normal.

Relational value creation and appropriation in buyer supplier relationships

his paper bridges the gap between the buyer-supplier literature and the definition of competitive advantage as value creation found in the strategic management literature. This study proposes and tests an integrative definition of the relational value that is created and appropriated in a dyad

Um estudo exploratório sobre a Employee Value Proposition (EVP) no mercado de seguros brasileiro

As práticas da gestão de recursos humanos acompanham a evolução na gestão do capital humano das organizações. As atividades de marketing voltadas à marca corporativa prestam serviço essencial e estratégico na identificação, formatação e divulgação da marca do empregador. Juntas as duas áreas passam a desempenhar papel solidário na atração de profissionais qualificados, reforçando e propagando a identidade corporativa aos potenciais candidatos através da EVP. A EVP, a Marca do Empregador e a Reputação do Empregador se relacionam através das práticas de recrutamento e seleção, que é área de RH que primeiro mantem contato com os potenciais candidatos e inicia a construção do contrato psicológico com o novo empregado. A marca do empregador, como a imagem da organização, é utilizada para atrair, reter e engajar as pessoas e tem a EVP como seu núcleo central. Neste estudo se identifica a prática de recrutamento e seleção como a principal conexão teórica entre a EVP, a marca do empregador e a reputação do empregador e se identifica que oportunidade como a dimensão da EVP mais relevantes para o público estudado.

Knowledge-based integrated production management model

Purpose - This paper aims to propose a model of production management that integrates knowledge management, as a third dimension, to the production and work dimensions and to identify factors that promote a favorable context for knowledge sharing and results achievement in the production operations shop floor environment.Design/methodology/approach - The model proposed is built from opportunities identified in the literature review.Findings - The factors in the model integrate its three main components: knowledge management, production organization and work organization, providing a representation of the dynamics of the workplace and shop floor environment.Practical implications - The proposed model and its factors allow managers to better understand and to improve the organization activities, because it integrates knowledge management with the production organization and work organization components of traditional models.Originality/value - Literature acknowledges the role of knowledge as competitive advantage, but it is still dealt in an implicit way within the traditional models of production management. This paper proposes a model and factors that provide a favorable context for tacit knowledge sharing and results achievement in the production operations shop floor environment. The model explicitly integrates knowledge management with traditional models' components.

Revegetation and Soil Management Effects on Chemical Properties of a Saprolite Resulting from Deep Soil Removal

During the building of a hydroelectrical power plant at Ilha Solteira in the Parana River (Brazil), materials of a highly weathered soil Oxisol were extracted from a depth between 5 and 8 m for engineering works. This resulted in an abandoned depression area. The topsoil was not salvaged and the open pit was not backfilled, and as result vegetation hardly or not at all recovered. on the residual saprolite materials, an experimental field was established to assess different soil rehabilitation treatments. Field experiments were initiated in 1992. After soil tillage, two different crops and three different liming strategies were compared, giving six combinations. In addition, two uncropped control treatments, tilled and no-tilled, were established so that a total of eight treatments were assessed. The experimental design consisted of four randomized experimental blocks, which included a total of 32 plots with a plot area of 100 m(2). This experiment was used to study the effectiveness of the soil-reclamation treatments after a 9-year period. Soil samples were taken at three different depths (0-10, 10-20, and 20-40 cm), and they were analyzed routinely for pH, organic-matter content, and cation exchange capacity (CEC). Revegetation of the abandoned saprolite material increased soil organic-matter content and cation exchange capacity (CEC), and to some extent small differences between treatments were evidenced. Exchangeable calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) recovered faster than organic-matter content. A significant linear relationship was found between organic-matter content and CEC, suggesting continued addition of organic material will further approach the value of these parameters to those levels corresponding to natural soils under "Cerrado" vegetation.

Strategy of specification of management areas: rice grain yield as related to soil fertility

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Thorax ultrasound in the management of pediatric pneumonias complicated with empyema

The aim of this work is to prospectively study the value of thoracic ultrasound (US) before pleural drainage in children with parapneumonic effusion (PPE). All children hospitalized for PPE, identified by thoracic radiography, underwent US to assess pleural loculation, echogenicity, and pleural fluid quantity. From August 2001 to July 2003, 52 children were examined. US was performed on 48 of these children, of whom 35 received chest tube drainage and 13 only received clinical treatment. US identified 38 patients with free flowing and 10 with loculated pleural fluid. About 25 of the free flowing (65.8%) and 10 (100%) of the loculated patients received chest tube drainage. Echogenicity was anechoic in 13, echoic without septations in 17 and echoic with septations in 18. Chest tube drainage was required in 6 anechoic (46.15%), 14 echoic without septations (82.35%), and 15 echoic with septations (83.33%). Quantity of fluid estimated by US varied from 20 to 860 ml. Effusion volume was higher in patients that were echoic with septations and loculated effusions. Pleural glucose and pH were lower, and LDH was higher in loculated PPE patients. In conclusion, US is an auxiliary exam for determining whether thoracic drainage is needed in parapneumonic effusion; loculated or echoic effusion should be drained, and free anechoic fluid needs further investigation.

Clinical applications of non-culture based methods for the diagnosis and management of opportunistic and endemic mycoses

Nonculture based methods for the detection of infections caused by fungal pathogens are becoming more important tools in the management of infected patients. Detection of fungal antigens and DNA appear to be the most promising in this respect for both opportunistic and endemic mycoses. In this article we present an overview of the most recent developments in nonculture based methods and examine their value in clinical practice.

Measuring supply chain management practices

Purpose: This paper aims to perform an empirical investigation about the constructs and indicators of the supply chain management practices framework. Design/methodology/approach: The measuring framework proposed is based on a survey that was carried out on 107 Brazilian companies. Statistical techniques were employed to verify, validate, and test the reliability of the constructs and their indicators. To validate this framework principal component analysis and structural equation modeling techniques were used. Findings: In general, previous studies suggest six constructs for measuring the supply chain management practices framework. However, in this study a framework was achieved with four constructs of supply chain management practices, namely, supply chain (SC) integration for production planning and control (PPC) support, information sharing about products and targeting strategies, strategic relationship with customer and supplier, and support customer order. This framework has adequate levels of validity and reliability. Research limitations/implications: The main limitation of this study was that only a small sample of companies in a single sector and country were surveyed, and therefore there needs to be further research considering the special conditions in other countries. Originality/value: This study investigated statistically set indicators to discuss the topic supply chain management practices. The framework obtained has good quality of validity and reliability indicators. Thus, an alternative framework has been added to measure supply chain management practices, which is currently a popular topic in the supply chain mainstream literature. Both defined constructs and the validated indicators can be used in other studies on supply chain management. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.