Characterizing changes in the excitability of corticospinal projections to proximal muscles of the upper limb

Background: There has been an explosion of interest in methods of exogenous brain stimulation that induce changes in the excitability of human cerebral cortex. The expectation is that these methods may promote recovery of function following brain injury. To assess their effects on motor output, it is typical to assess the state of corticospinal projections from primary motor cortex to muscles of the hand, via electromyographic responses to transcranial magnetic stimulation. If a range of stimulation intensities is employed, the recruitment curves (RCs) obtained can, at least for intrinsic hand muscles, be fitted by a sigmoid function.

Objective/hypothesis: To establish whether sigmoid fits provide a reliable basis upon which to characterize the input–output properties of the corticospinal pathway for muscles proximal to the hand, and to assess as an alternative the area under the (recruitment) curve (AURC).

Methods: A comparison of the reliability of these measures, using RCs obtained for muscles that are frequently the targets of rehabilitation.

Results: The AURC is an extremely reliable measure of the state of corticospinal projections to hand and forearm muscles, which has both face and concurrent validity. Construct validity is demonstrated by detection of widely distributed (across muscles) changes in corticospinal excitability induced by paired associative stimulation (PAS).

Conclusion(s): The parameters derived from sigmoid fits are unlikely to provide an adequate means to assess the effectiveness of therapeutic regimes. The AURC can be employed to characterize corticospinal projections to a range of muscles, and gauge the efficacy of longitudinal interventions in clinical rehabilitation.

SN 2009N: linking normal and subluminous Type II-P Sne

We present ultraviolet, optical, near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy of SN 2009N in NGC 4487. This object is a Type II-P supernova with spectra resembling those of subluminous II-P supernovae, while its bolometric luminosity is similar to that of the intermediate-luminosity SN 2008in. We created SYNOW models of the plateau phase spectra for line identification and to measure the expansion velocity. In the near-infrared spectra we find signs indicating possible weak interaction between the supernova ejecta and the pre-existing circumstellar material. These signs are also present in the previously unpublished near-infrared spectra of SN 2008in. The distance to SN 2009N is determined via the expanding photosphere method and the standard candle method as D = 21.6 ± 1.1 Mpc. The produced nickel-mass is estimated to be ∼0.020 ± 0.004 M⊙. We infer the physical properties of the progenitor at the explosion through hydrodynamical modelling of the observables. We find the values of the total energy as ∼0.48 × 1051 erg, the ejected mass as ∼11.5 M⊙, and the initial radius as ∼287 R⊙.

The progenitor mass of the Type IIP supernova SN 2004et from late-time spectral modeling

SN 2004et is one of the nearest and best-observed Type IIP supernovae, with a progenitor detection as well as good photometric and spectroscopic observational coverage well into the nebular phase. Based on nucleosynthesis from stellar evolution/explosion models we apply spectral modeling to analyze its 140-700 day evolution from ultraviolet to mid-infrared. We find a M_ZAMS= 15 Msun progenitor star (with an oxygen mass of 0.8 Msun) to satisfactorily reproduce [O I] 6300, 6364 {\AA} and other emission lines of carbon, sodium, magnesium, and silicon, while 12 Msun and 19 Msun models under- and overproduce most of these lines, respectively. This result is in fair agreement with the mass derived from the progenitor detection, but in disagreement with hydrodynamical modeling of the early-time light curve. From modeling of the mid-infrared iron-group emission lines, we determine the density of the "Ni-bubble" to rho(t) = 7E-14*(t/100d)^-3 g cm^-3, corresponding to a filling factor of f = 0.15 in the metal core region (V = 1800 km/s). We also confirm that silicate dust, CO, and SiO emission are all present in the spectra.

Three-dimensional pure deflagration models with nucleosynthesis and synthetic observables for type ia supernovae

We investigate whether pure deflagration models ofChandrasekhar-mass carbon-oxygen white dwarf stars can account for one or more subclass of the observed population of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) explosions. We compute a set of 3D full-star hydrodynamic explosion models, in which the deflagration strength is parametrized using the multispot ignition approach. For each model, we calculate detailed nucleosynthesis yields in a post-processing step with a 384 nuclide nuclear network. We also compute synthetic observables with our 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer code for comparison with observations. For weak and intermediate deflagration strengths (energy release E {less-than or approximate} 1.1 × 10 erg), we find that the explosion leaves behind a bound remnant enriched with 3 to 10 per cent (by mass) of deflagration ashes. However, we do not obtain the large kick velocities recently reported in the literature. We find that weak deflagrations with E ~ 0.5 × 10 erg fit well both the light curves and spectra of 2002cx-like SNe Ia, and models with even lower explosion energies could explain some of the fainter members of this subclass. By comparing our synthetic observables with the properties of SNe Ia, we can exclude the brightest, most vigorously ignited models as candidates for any observed class of SN Ia: their B-V colours deviate significantly from both normal and 2002cx-like SNe Ia and they are too bright to be candidates for other subclasses.

The effect of helium accretion efficiency on rates of Type Ia supernovae: Double detonations in accreting binaries

he double-detonation explosion scenario of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) has gained increased support from the SN Ia community as a viable progenitor model, making it a promising candidate alongside the well-known single degenerate and double degenerate scenarios. We present delay times of double-detonation SNe, in which a sub-Chandrasekhar mass carbon–oxygen white dwarf (WD) accretes non-dynamically from a helium-rich companion. One of the main uncertainties in quantifying SN rates from double detonations is the (assumed) retention efficiency of He-rich matter. Therefore, we implement a new prescription for the treatment of accretion/accumulation of He-rich matter on WDs. In addition, we test how the results change depending on which criteria are assumed to lead to a detonation in the helium shell. In comparing the results to our standard case (Ruiter et al.), we find that regardless of the adopted He accretion prescription, the SN rates are reduced by only ∼25 per cent if low-mass He shells (≲0.05 M⊙) are sufficient to trigger the detonations. If more massive (0.1 M⊙) shells are needed, the rates decrease by 85 per cent and the delay time distribution is significantly changed in the new accretion model – only SNe with prompt (<500 Myr) delay times are produced. Since theoretical arguments favour low-mass He shells for normal double-detonation SNe, we conclude that the rates from double detonations are likely to be high, and should not critically depend on the adopted prescription for accretion of He.

SN 2010LP - A type IA supernova from a violent merger of two carbon-oxygen white dwarfs

SN 2010lp is a subluminous Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) with slowly evolving lightcurves. Moreover, it is the only subluminous SN Ia observed so far that shows narrow emission lines of [O I] in late-time spectra, indicating unburned oxygen close to the center of the ejecta. Most explosion models for SNe Ia cannot explain the narrow [O I] emission. Here, we present hydrodynamic explosion and radiative transfer calculations showing that the violent merger of two carbon-oxygen white dwarfs of 0.9 and 0.76 M adequately reproduces the early-time observables of SN 2010lp. Moreover, our model predicts oxygen close to the center of the explosion ejecta, a pre-requisite for narrow [O I] emission in nebular spectra as observed in SN 2010lp. © 2013. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.

Synthetic light curves and spectra for three-dimensional delayed-detonation models of type ia supernovae

In a companion paper, Seitenzahl et al. have presented a set of three-dimensional delayed detonation models for thermonuclear explosions of near-Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarfs (WDs). Here,we present multidimensional radiative transfer simulations that provide synthetic light curves and spectra for those models. The model sequence explores both changes in the strength of the deflagration phase (which is controlled by the ignition configuration in our models) and the WD central density. In agreement with previous studies, we find that the strength of the deflagration significantly affects the explosion and the observables. Variations in the central density also have an influence on both brightness and colour, but overall it is a secondary parameter in our set of models. In many respects, the models yield a good match to the observed properties of normal Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia): peak brightness, rise/decline time-scales and synthetic spectra are all in reasonable agreement. There are, however, several differences. In particular, the models are systematically too red around maximum light, manifest spectral line velocities that are a little too high and yield I-band light curves that do not match observations. Although some of these discrepancies may simply relate to approximations made in the modelling, some pose real challenges to the models. If viewed as a complete sequence, our models do not reproduce the observed light-curve width- luminosity relation (WLR) of SNe Ia: all our models show rather similar B-band decline rates, irrespective of peak brightness. This suggests that simple variations in the strength of the deflagration phase in Chandrasekhar-mass deflagration-to-detonation models do not readily explain the observed diversity of normal SNe Ia. This may imply that some other parameter within the Chandrasekhar-mass paradigm is key to the WLR, or that a substantial fraction of normal SNe Ia arise from an alternative explosion scenario.

'Super-Chandrasekhar' Type Ia Supernovae at nebular epochs

We present a first systematic comparison of superluminous Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at late epochs, including previously unpublished photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN 2007if, SN 2009dc and SNF20080723-012. Photometrically, the objects of our sample show a diverse late-time behaviour, some of them fading quite rapidly after a light-curve break at ∼ 150-200 d. The latter is likely the result of flux redistribution into the infrared, possibly caused by dust formation, rather than a true bolometric effect. Nebular spectra of superluminous SNe Ia are characterized by weak or absent [Fe III] emission, pointing at a low ejecta ionization state as a result of high densities. To constrain the ejecta and Ni masses of superluminous SNe Ia, we compare the observed bolometric light curve of SN 2009dc with synthetic model light curves, focusing on the radioactive tail after ∼60 d. Models with enough Ni to explain the light-curve peak by radioactive decay, and at the same time sufficient mass to keep the ejecta velocities low, fail to reproduce the observed light-curve tail of SN 2009dc because of too much γ -ray trapping.We instead propose a model with ∼1M of Ni and ∼2 M of ejecta, which may be interpreted as the explosion of a Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarf (WD) enshrouded by 0.6-0.7 M of C/O-rich material, as it could result from a merger of two massive C/O WDs. This model reproduces the late light curve of SN 2009dc well. A flux deficit at peak may be compensated by light from the interaction of the ejecta with the surrounding material.

Periodontitis and systemic diseases:A record of discussions of working group 4 of the Joint EFP/AAP Workshop on Periodontitis and Systemic Diseases

Background There has been an explosion in research into possible associations between periodontitis and various systemic diseases and conditions. Aim To review the evidence for associations between periodontitis and various systemic diseases and conditions, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, chronic kidney disease, rheumatoid arthritis, cognitive impairment, obesity, metabolic syndrome and cancer, and to document headline discussions of the state of each field. Periodontal associations with diabetes, cardiovascular disease and adverse pregnancy outcomes were not discussed by working group 4. Results Working group 4 recognized that the studies performed to date were largely cross-sectional or case-control with few prospective cohort studies and no randomized clinical trials. The best current evidence suggests that periodontitis is characterized by both infection and pro-inflammatory events, which variously manifest within the systemic diseases and disorders discussed. Diseases with at least minimal evidence of an association with periodontitis include COPD, pneumonia, chronic kidney disease, rheumatoid arthritis, cognitive impairment, obesity, metabolic syndrome and cancer. The working group agreed that there is insufficient evidence to date to infer causal relationships with the exception that organisms originating in the oral microbiome can cause lung infections. Conclusions The group was unanimous in their opinion that the reported associations do not imply causality, and establishment of causality will require new studies that fulfil the Bradford Hill or equivalent criteria. Precise and community-agreed case definitions of periodontal disease states must be implemented systematically to enable consistent and clearer interpretations of studies of the relationship to systemic diseases. The members of the working group were unanimous in their opinion that to develop data that best inform clinicians, investigators and the public, studies should focus on robust disease outcomes and avoid surrogate endpoints. It was concluded that because of the relative immaturity of the body of evidence for each of the purported relationships, the field is wide open and the gaps in knowledge are large. © 2013 European Federation of Periodontology and American Academy of Periodontology.

Structural Breaks in Mortality Models and their Consequences

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and, hence, life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and, hence, quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age and cohort, and forecast these trends into the future using standard statistical methods. The modeling approaches used failed to capture the effects of any structural change in the trend and, thus, potentially produced incorrect forecasts of future mortality rates. In this paper, we look at a range of leading stochastic models of mortality and test for structural breaks in the trend time series.

Interacting supernovae from photoionization-confined shells around red supergiant stars

Betelgeuse, a nearby red supergiant, is a runaway star with a powerful stellar wind that drives a bow shock into its surroundings. This picture has been challenged by the discovery of a dense and almost static shell that is three times closer to the star than the bow shock and has been decelerated by some external force. The two physically distinct structures cannot both be formed by the hydrodynamic interaction of the wind with the interstellar medium. Here we report that a model in which Betelgeuse's wind is photoionized by radiation from external sources can explain the static shell without requiring a new understanding of the bow shock. Pressure from the photoionized wind generates a standing shock in the neutral part of the wind and forms an almost static, photoionization-confined shell. Other red supergiants should have significantly more massive shells than Betelgeuse, because the photoionization-confined shell traps up to 35 per cent of all mass lost during the red supergiant phase, confining this gas close to the star until it explodes. After the supernova explosion, massive shells dramatically affect the supernova lightcurve, providing a natural explanation for the many supernovae that have signatures of circumstellar interaction.

Identifying Structural Breaks in Stochastic Mortality Models

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of utmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies, and government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and hence life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data to anticipate future life expectancy and hence quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age, and cohort and forecast these trends into the future by using standard statistical methods. These approaches rely on the assumption that structural breaks in the trend do not exist or do not have a significant impact on the mortality forecasts. Recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive investigation of the presence or of structural breaks in a selection of leading mortality models. We find that structural breaks are present in the majority of cases. In particular, we find that allowing for structural break, where present, improves the forecast result significantly.

Superluminous supernovae from PESSTO

We present optical spectra and light curves for three hydrogen-poor superluminous supernovae followed by the Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects (PESSTO). Time series spectroscopy from a fewdays aftermaximum light to 100 d later shows them to be fairly typical of this class, with spectra dominated by Ca II, MgII, FeII, and Si II, which evolve slowly over most of the post-peak photospheric phase. We determine bolometric light curves and apply simple fitting tools, based on the diffusion of energy input by magnetar spin-down, Ni-56 decay, and collision of the ejecta with an opaque circumstellar shell. We investigate how the heterogeneous light curves of our sample (combined with others from the literature) can help to constrain the possible mechanisms behind these events. We have followed these events to beyond 100-200 d after peak, to disentangle host galaxy light from fading supernova flux and to differentiate between the models, which predict diverse behaviour at this phase. Models powered by radioactivity require unrealistic parameters to reproduce the observed light curves, as found by previous studies. Both magnetar heating and circumstellar interaction still appear to be viable candidates. A large diversity is emerging in observed tail-phase luminosities, with magnetar models failing in some cases to predict the rapid drop in flux. This would suggest either that magnetars are not responsible, or that the X-ray flux from the magnetar wind is not fully trapped. The light curve of one object shows a distinct rebrightening at around 100 d after maximum light. We argue that this could result either from multiple shells of circumstellar material, or from a magnetar ionization front breaking out of the ejecta.

Multi-Dimensional Simulations of the Expanding Supernova Remnant of SN 1987A

The expanding remnant from SN 1987A is an excellent laboratory for investigating the physics of supernovae explosions. There is still a large number of outstanding questions, such as the reason for the asymmetric radio morphology, the structure of the pre-supernova environment, and the efficiency of particle acceleration at the supernova shock. We explore these questions using three-dimensional simulations of the expanding remnant between days 820 and 10,000 after the supernova. We combine a hydrodynamical simulation with semi-analytic treatments of diffusive shock acceleration and magnetic field amplification to derive radio emission as part of an inverse problem. Simulations show that an asymmetric explosion, combined with magnetic field amplification at the expanding shock, is able to replicate the persistent one-sided radio morphology of the remnant. We use an asymmetric Truelove & McKee progenitor with an envelope mass of 10 M-circle dot and an energy of 1.5 x 10(44) J. A termination shock in the progenitor's stellar wind at a distance of 0 ''.43-0 ''.51 provides a good fit to the turn on of radio emission around day 1200. For the H II region, a minimum distance of 0 ''.63 +/- 0 ''.01 and maximum particle number density of (7.11 +/- 1.78) x 10(7) m(-3) produces a good fit to the evolving average radius and velocity of the expanding shocks from day 2000 to day 7000 after explosion. The model predicts a noticeable reduction, and possibly a temporary reversal, in the asymmetric radio morphology of the remnant after day 7000, when the forward shock left the eastern lobe of the equatorial ring.

SN 2012ec: mass of the progenitor from PESSTO follow-up of the photospheric phase

We present the results of a photometric and spectroscopic monitoring campaign of SN 2012ec, which exploded in the spiral galaxy NGC 1084, during the photospheric phase. The photometric light curve exhibits a plateau with luminosity L = 0.9 x 10(42) erg s(-1) and duration similar to 90 d, which is somewhat shorter than standard Type II-P supernovae (SNe). We estimate the nickel mass M(Ni-56) = 0.040 +/- 0.015 M-circle dot from the luminosity at the beginning of the radioactive tail of the light curve. The explosion parameters of SN 2012ec were estimated from the comparison of the bolometric light curve and the observed temperature and velocity evolution of the ejecta with predictions from hydrodynamical models. We derived an envelope mass of 12.6 M-circle dot, an initial progenitor radius of 1.6 x 10(13) cm and an explosion energy of 1.2 foe. These estimates agree with an independent study of the progenitor star identified in pre-explosion images, for which an initial mass of M = 14-22 M-circle dot was determined. We have applied the same analysis to two other Type II-P SNe (SNe 2012aw and 2012A), and carried out a comparison with the properties of SN 2012ec derived in this paper. We find a reasonable agreement between the masses of the progenitors obtained from pre-explosion images and masses derived from hydrodynamical models. We estimate the distance to SN 2012ec with the standardized candle method (SCM) and compare it with other estimates based on other primary and secondary indicators. SNe 2012A, 2012aw and 2012ec all follow the standard relations for the SCM for the use of Type II-P SNe as distance indicators.