Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

Methodology for Dynamic Stability and Robustness Analysis of Commercial-Power-Module-Based DC-Distributed Systems

El propósito de esta tesis es presentar una metodología para realizar análisis de la dinámica en pequeña señal y el comportamiento de sistemas de alimentación distribuidos de corriente continua (CC), formados por módulos comerciales. Para ello se hace uso de un método sencillo que indica los márgenes de estabilidad menos conservadores posibles mediante un solo número. Este índice es calculado en cada una de las interfaces que componen el sistema y puede usarse para obtener un índice global que indica la estabilidad del sistema global. De esta manera se posibilita la comparación de sistemas de alimentación distribuidos en términos de robustez. La interconexión de convertidores CC-CC entre ellos y con los filtros EMI necesarios puede originar interacciones no deseadas que dan lugar a la degradación del comportamiento de los convertidores, haciendo el sistema más propenso a inestabilidades. Esta diferencia en el comportamiento se debe a interacciones entre las impedancias de los diversos elementos del sistema. En la mayoría de los casos, los sistemas de alimentación distribuida están formados por módulos comerciales cuya estructura interna es desconocida. Por ello los análisis presentados en esta tesis se basan en medidas de la respuesta en frecuencia del convertidor que pueden realizarse desde los terminales de entrada y salida del mismo. Utilizando las medidas de las impedancias de entrada y salida de los elementos del sistema, se puede construir una función de sensibilidad que proporciona los márgenes de estabilidad de las diferentes interfaces. En esta tesis se utiliza el concepto del valor máximo de la función de sensibilidad (MPC por sus siglas en inglés) para indicar los márgenes de estabilidad como un único número. Una vez que la estabilidad de todas las interfaces del sistema se han evaluado individualmente, los índices obtenidos pueden combinarse para obtener un único número con el que comparar la estabilidad de diferentes sistemas. Igualmente se han analizado las posibles interacciones en la entrada y la salida de los convertidores CC-CC, obteniéndose expresiones analíticas con las que describir en detalle los acoplamientos generados en el sistema. Los estudios analíticos realizados se han validado experimentalmente a lo largo de la tesis. El análisis presentado en esta tesis se culmina con la obtención de un índice que condensa los márgenes de estabilidad menos conservativos. También se demuestra que la robustez del sistema está asegurada si las impedancias utilizadas en la función de sensibilidad se obtienen justamente en la entrada o la salida del subsistema que está siendo analizado. Por otra parte, la tesis presenta un conjunto de parámetros internos asimilados a impedancias, junto con sus expresiones analíticas, que permiten una explicación detallada de las interacciones en el sistema. Dichas expresiones analíticas pueden obtenerse bien mediante las funciones de transferencia analíticas si se conoce la estructura interna, o utilizando medidas en frecuencia o identificación de las mismas a través de la respuesta temporal del convertidor. De acuerdo a las metodologías presentadas en esta tesis se puede predecir la estabilidad y el comportamiento de sistemas compuestos básicamente por convertidores CC-CC y filtros, cuya estructura interna es desconocida. La predicción se basa en un índice que condensa la información de los márgenes de estabilidad y que permite la obtención de un indicador de la estabilidad global de todo el sistema, permitiendo la comparación de la estabilidad de diferentes arquitecturas de sistemas de alimentación distribuidos. ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis is to present dynamic small-signal stability and performance analysis methodology for dc-distributed systems consisting of commercial power modules. Furthermore, the objective is to introduce simple method to state the least conservative margins for robust stability as a single number. In addition, an index characterizing the overall system stability is obtained, based on which different dc-distributed systems can be compared in terms of robustness. The interconnected systems are prone to impedance-based interactions which might lead to transient-performance degradation or even instability. These systems typically are constructed using commercial converters with unknown internal structure. Therefore, the analysis presented throughout this thesis is based on frequency responses measurable from the input and output terminals. The stability margins are stated utilizing a concept of maximum peak criteria, derived from the behavior of impedance-based sensitivity function that provides a single number to state robust stability. Using this concept, the stability information at every system interface is combined to a meaningful number to state the average robustness of the system. In addition, theoretical formulas are extracted to assess source and load side interactions in order to describe detailed couplings within the system. The presented theoretical analysis methodologies are experimentally validated throughout the thesis. In this thesis, according to the presented analysis, the least conservative stability margins are provided as a single number guaranteeing robustness. It is also shown that within the interconnected system the robust stability is ensured only if the impedance-based minor-loop gain is determined at the very input or output of each subsystem. Moreover, a complete set of impedance-type internal parameters as well as the formulas according to which the interaction sensitivity can be fully explained and analyzed, is provided. The given formulation can be utilized equally either based on measured frequency responses, time-domain identified internal parameters or extracted analytic transfer functions. Based on the analysis methodologies presented in this thesis, the stability and performance of interconnected systems consisting of converters with unknown internal structure, can be predicted. Moreover, the provided concept to assess the least conservative stability margins enables to obtain an index to state the overall robust stability of distributed power architecture and thus to compare different systems in terms of stability.

Hacia un modelo dinámico para la isla de calor urbana de Madrid = Towards a Dynamic Model for the Urban Heat Island of Madrid

Esta investigación se enmarca dentro del proyecto MODIFICA (modelo predictivo - Edificios - Isla de Calor Urbano), financiado por el Programa de I + D + i Orientada a los Retos de la sociedad 'Retos Investigación' de 2013. Está dirigido a desarrollar un modelo predictivo de eficiencia energética para viviendas, bajo el efecto de isla de calor urbano (AUS) con el fin de ponerla en práctica en la evaluación de la demanda de energía real y el consumo en las viviendas. A pesar de los grandes avances que se han logrado durante los últimos años en el rendimiento energético de edificios, los archivos de tiempo utilizados en la construcción de simulaciones de energía se derivan generalmente de estaciones meteorológicas situadas en las afueras de la ciudad. Por lo tanto, el efecto de la Isla de Calor Urbano (ICU) no se considera en estos cálculos, lo que implica una importante falta de precisión. Centrado en explorar cómo incluir los fenómenos ICU, el presente trabajo recopila y analiza la dinámica por hora de la temperatura en diferentes lugares dentro de la ciudad de Madrid. Abstract This research is framed within the project MODIFICA (Predictive model - Buildings - Urban Heat Island), funded by Programa de I+D+i orientada a los retos de la sociedad 'Retos Investigación' 2013. It is aimed at developing a predictive model for dwelling energy performance under the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in order to implement it in the evaluation of real energy demand and consumption in dwellings. Despite great advances on building energy performance have been achieved during the last years, weather files used in building energy simulations are usually derived from weather stations placed in the outskirts of the city. Hence, Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is not considered in this calculations, which implies an important lack of accuracy. Focused on exploring how to include the UHI phenomena, the present paper compiles and analyses the hourly dynamics of temperature in different locations within the city of Madrid.

Ensemble codes involving hippocampal neurons are at risk during delayed performance tests

Multielectrode recording techniques were used to record ensemble activity from 10 to 16 simultaneously active CA1 and CA3 neurons in the rat hippocampus during performance of a spatial delayed-nonmatch-to-sample task. Extracted sources of variance were used to assess the nature of two different types of errors that accounted for 30% of total trials. The two types of errors included ensemble “miscodes” of sample phase information and errors associated with delay-dependent corruption or disappearance of sample information at the time of the nonmatch response. Statistical assessment of trial sequences and associated “strength” of hippocampal ensemble codes revealed that miscoded error trials always followed delay-dependent error trials in which encoding was “weak,” indicating that the two types of errors were “linked.” It was determined that the occurrence of weakly encoded, delay-dependent error trials initiated an ensemble encoding “strategy” that increased the chances of being correct on the next trial and avoided the occurrence of further delay-dependent errors. Unexpectedly, the strategy involved “strongly” encoding response position information from the prior (delay-dependent) error trial and carrying it forward to the sample phase of the next trial. This produced a miscode type error on trials in which the “carried over” information obliterated encoding of the sample phase response on the next trial. Application of this strategy, irrespective of outcome, was sufficient to reorient the animal to the proper between trial sequence of response contingencies (nonmatch-to-sample) and boost performance to 73% correct on subsequent trials. The capacity for ensemble analyses of strength of information encoding combined with statistical assessment of trial sequences therefore provided unique insight into the “dynamic” nature of the role hippocampus plays in delay type memory tasks.

Effects of static stretching following a dynamic warm-up on speed, agility and power

Static stretching prior to sport has been shown to decrease force production in comparison to the increasing popularity of dynamic warm-up methods. However some athletes continue to use a bout of static stretching following dynamic methods. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects on speed, agility and power following a period of additional static stretching following a dynamic warm-up routine. Twenty-five male University students who participated in team sports performed two warm-up protocols concentrating on the lower body one week apart through a randomised cross over design. The dynamic warm-up (DW) protocol used a series of specific progressive exercises lasting 10 minutes over a distance of 20m. The dynamic warm-up plus static stretching (DWS) protocol used the same DW protocol followed by a 5 minute period during which 7 muscle groups were stretched. Following each warm-up the subjects performed a countermovement vertical jump, 20m sprint and Illinois agility test, 1 minute apart. The results demonstrated no significant differences in speed, agility and jump performance following the two protocols DW and DWS. The study concludes that performing static stretching following a dynamic warm-up prior to performance does not significantly affect speed, agility and vertical jump performance.

Assessment of CO2 adsorption capacity on activated carbons by a combination of batch and dynamic tests

In this work, batch and dynamic adsorption tests are coupled for an accurate evaluation of CO2 adsorption performance for three different activated carbons obtained from olives stones by chemical activation followed by physical activation with CO2 at varying times, i.e. 20, 40 and 60 h. Kinetic and thermodynamic CO2 adsorption tests from simulated flue-gas at different temperature and CO2 pressure are carried out both in batch (a manometric equipment operating with pure CO2) and dynamic (a lab-scale fixed-bed column operating with CO2/N2 mixture) conditions. The textural characterization of the activated carbon samples shows a direct dependence of both micropore and ultramicropore volume on the activation time, hence AC60 has the higher contribution. The adsorption tests conducted at 273 and 293 K showed that, when CO2 pressure is lower than 0.3 bar, the lower the activation time the higher CO2 adsorption capacity and a ranking ωeq(AC20)>ωeq(AC40)>ωeq(AC60) can be exactly defined when T= 293 K. This result can be likely ascribed to a narrower pore size distribution of the AC20 sample, whose smaller pores are more effective for CO2 capture at higher temperature and lower CO2 pressure, the latter representing operating conditions of major interest for decarbonation of a flue-gas effluent. Moreover, the experimental results obtained from dynamic tests confirm the results derived from the batch tests in terms of CO2 adsorption capacity. It is important to highlight that the adsorption of N2 on the synthesized AC samples can be considered negligible. Finally, the importance of a proper analysis of characterization data and adsorption experimental results is highlighted for a correct assessment of CO2 removal performances of activated carbons at different CO2 pressure and operating temperature.

Dynamic Visual Servoing With Chaos Control for Redundant Robots

This paper presents a new dynamic visual control system for redundant robots with chaos compensation. In order to implement the visual servoing system, a new architecture is proposed that improves the system maintainability and traceability. Furthermore, high performance is obtained as a result of parallel execution of the different tasks that compose the architecture. The control component of the architecture implements a new visual servoing technique for resolving the redundancy at the acceleration level in order to guarantee the correct motion of both end-effector and joints. The controller generates the required torques for the tracking of image trajectories. However, in order to guarantee the applicability of this technique, a repetitive path tracked by the robot-end must produce a periodic joint motion. A chaos controller is integrated in the visual servoing system and the correct performance is observed in low and high velocities. Furthermore, a method to adjust the chaos controller is proposed and validated using a real three-link robot.

Wind Shear, Gust, and Yaw-Induced Dynamic Stall on Wind-Turbine Blades

This study examined the effect of a spanwise angle of attack gradient on the growth and stability of a dynamic stall vortex in a rotating system. It was found that a spanwise angle of attack gradient induces a corresponding spanwise vorticity gradient, which, in combination with spanwise flow, results in a redistribution of circulation along the blade. Specifically, when modelling the angle of attack gradient experienced by a wind turbine at the 30% span position during a gust event, the spanwise vorticity gradient was aligned such that circulation was transported from areas of high circulation to areas of low circulation, increasing the local dynamic stall vortex growth rate, which corresponds to an increase in the lift coefficient, and a decrease in the local vortex stability at this point. Reversing the relative alignment of the spanwise vorticity gradient and spanwise flow results in circulation transport from areas of low circulation generation to areas of high circulation generation, acting to reduce local circulation and stabilise the vortex. This circulation redistribution behaviour describes a mechanism by which the fluctuating loads on a wind turbine are magnified, which is detrimental to turbine lifetime and performance. Therefore, an understanding of this phenomenon has the potential to facilitate optimised wind turbine design.

The Dynamic Process of Development through Sport

This article presents a global vision for sport through a new framework that incorporates the elements necessary for a developmentally sound approach to youth sport involvement. This framework proposes that youth sport involvement includes three basic elements: (1) taking part in activities (what), while creating relationships with others (who), in a specific setting (where). When these three elements positively interact, it creates a context that, when repeated on a regular basis, leads to changes in the personal assets of the participants. Changes in individuals’ personal assets, such as Competence, Confidence, Connection, and Character (4 C’s), have long been associated with positive sport experiences, which in turn lead to long-term outcomes, including continued sport Participation, higher levels of Performance in sport, and Personal development through sport (3 P’s). Research linking the three basic elements of youth sport (activities, relationships, and settings) to positive changes in personal assets (4 C’s) and long-term outcomes (3 P’s) are discussed and the Personal Assets Framework is presented

The Organizational Tasks of High-Performance Gymnastic Coaches

The purpose of this study was to report the knowledge used by expert high performance gymnastic coaches in the organization of training and competition. In-depth interviews were conducted with 9 coaches who worked with male gymnasts and 8 coaches who worked with female gymnasts. Qualitative analyses showed that coaches of males and coaches of females planned training similarly, except that coaches of females appeared to emphasize esthetic and nutritional issues to a greater extent. Coaches of males revealed more concerns about the organization of gymnasts' physical conditioning. Analysis indicated that expert gymnastic coaches of males and females are constantly involved in dynamic social interactions with gymnasts, parents, and assistant coaches. Many areas of coaches' organizational work, such as dealing with the athletes' personal concerns and working with parents, are not part of the structure of coaches' training programs and emerged as crucial tasks of expert gymnastic coaches for developing elite gymnasts.

RSV test monitoring and data publication - results of European performance and handling tests on the Calspan RSV. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Seat belt performance of manual and automatic systems installed in the GM Chevrolet Chevette and the VW Rabbit. Technical report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Trailer braking performance - recreational vehicles. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Dynamic Management of Loyalty Program Strategies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Design Expressions and Dynamic Evaluation of CFST Bridges Subjected to Seismic Hazards

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06