An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Dynamic susceptibility investigation of maghemite nanoparticles incorporated in bovine serum albumin template

Room-temperature measurements of the magnetic susceptibility of Bovine Serum Albumin-based nanocapsules (50 to 300 nm in size) loaded with different amounts of maghemite nanoparticles (7.6 nm average diameter) have been carried out in this study The field (H) dependence of the imaginary peak susceptibility (f(P)) of the nanocomposite samples was investigated in the range of 0 to 4 kOe. From the analysis of the f(P) x H curves the concentration (N) dependence of the effective maghemite magnetocrystalline energy barrier (E) was obtained. Analysis of the E x N data was performed using a modified Morup-Tronc [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 3278 (1994)] model, from which a huge contribution from the magnetocrystalline surface anisotropy was observed.

In-tube solid-phase microextraction coupled to liquid chromatography (in-tube SPME/LC) analysis of nontricyclic antidepressants in human plasma

A sensitive, selective, and reproducible in-tube solid-phase microextraction and liquid chromatographic (in-tube SPME/LC-UV) method for simultaneous determination of mirrazapine, citalopram, paroxetine, duloxetine, fluoxetine, and sertraline in human plasma was developed, validated and further applied to the analysis of plasma samples from elderly patients undergoing therapy with antidepressants. Important factors in the optimization of in-tube SPME efficiency are discussed, including the sample draw/eject volume, draw/eject cycle number, draw/eject flow-rate, sample pH, and influence of plasma proteins. The quantification limits of the in-tube SPME/LC method varied between 20 and 50 ng/mL, with a coefficient of variation lower than 10%. The response of the in-tube SPME/LC method for most of the drugs was linear over a dynamic range from 50 to 500 ng/mL, with correlation coefficients higher than 0.9985. The in-tube SPME/LC can be successfully used to analyze plasma samples from ageing patients undergoing therapy with nontricyclic antidepressants. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous analysis of parabens in cosmetic products by stir bar sorptive extraction and liquid chromatography

A sensitive and precise stir bar sorptive extraction (SBSE) combined with LC (SBSE/LC) analysis is described for simultaneous determination of methyl, ethyl, propyl, and butyl parabens in commercial cosmetic products in agreement with the European Union Cosmetics Directive 76/768/EEC. Important factors in the optimization of SB SE efficiency are discussed, such as time and temperature of extraction, pH, and ionic strength of the sample, matrix effects, and liquid desorption conditions by different modes (magnetic stirring, ultrasonic). The LOQs of the SBSE/LC method ranged from 30 to 200 ng/mg, with linear response over a dynamic range, from the LOQ to 2.5 mu g/mg, with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.993. The interday precision of the SBSE/LC method presented a coefficient of variation lower than 5%. The effectiveness of the proposed method was proven for analysis of commercial cosmetic products such as body creams, antiperspirant creams, and sunscreens.

Wavefront Analysis, Contrast Sensitivity, and Depth of Focus After Cataract Surgery With Aspherical Intraocular Lens Implantation

PURPOSE: To determine whether implantation of an aspherical intraocular lens (IOL) results in reduced ocular aberrations and improved contrast sensitivity after cataract surgery without critical reduction of depth of focus. DESIGN: Double-blinded, randomized, prospective study. METHODS: In an intraindividual study of 25 patients with bilateral cataract, an aspherical IOL (Akreos Advanced Optic [AO]; Bausch & Lomb, Inc., Rochester, New York, USA) was implanted in one eye and a spherical IOL (Akreos Fit; Bausch & Lomb, Inc) in the fellow eye. Higher-order aberrations with a 5- and 6-mm pupil were measured with a dynamic retinoscopy aberrometer at 1 and 3 months after surgery. Uncorrected and best-corrected visual acuity and contrast sensitivity under mesopic and photopic conditions also were measured. Distance-corrected near and intermediate visual acuity were studied as a measurement of depth of focus. RESULTS: There was no statistically significant difference between eyes in uncorrected and best-corrected visual acuity at I and 3 months after surgery. There was a statistically significant between-group difference in contrast sensitivity under photopic conditions at 12 cycles per degree and under mesopic conditions at all spatial frequencies. The Akreos AO group obtained statistically significant lower values of higher-order aberrations and spherical aberration with 5- and 6-mm pupils compared with the Akreos Fit group (P < .05). There was no significant difference in distance-corrected near and intermediate visual acuity between both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Aspherical aberration-free Akreos AO IOL induced significantly less higher-order aberrations and spherical aberration than the Akreos Fit. Contrast sensitivity was better under mesopic conditions with the Akreos AO with similar results of depth of focus. (Am J Ophthalmol 2010;149:383-389. (C) 2010 by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal childhood vaccination against varicella in Brazil

This study conducts a cost-effectiveness analysis of a childhood universal varicella vaccination program in Brazil. An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of varicella for 30 years. Assuming a single-dose schedule; vaccine efficacy of 85% and coverage of 80%, the program could prevent 74,422,058 cases and 2905 deaths. It would cost R$ 3,178,396,110 and save R$ 660,076,410 to the society and R$ 365,602,305 to the healthcare system. The program is cost-effective (R$ 14,749 and R$ 16,582 per life-year saved under the societal and the healthcare system`s perspective, respectively). The program`s cost-effectiveness is highly sensitive to the vaccine price and number of doses. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of the Home Range Sizes of Mainland and Island Populations of Black-Faced Lion Tamarins (Leontopithecus caissara) Using Different Spatial Analysis

The critically endangered black-faced lion tamarin, Leontopithecus caissara, has a restricted geographical distribution consisting of small mainland and island populations, each with distinct habitats in coastal southeastern Brazil. Necessary conservation management actions require an assessment of whether differences in habitats are reflected in use of space by the species. We studied two tamarin groups on the mainland at Sao Paulo state between August 2005 and March 2007, and compared the results with data from Superagui Island. Three home range estimators were used: minimum convex polygon (MCP), Kernel, and the new technique presented dissolved monthly polygons (DMP). These resulted, respectively, in home ranges of 345, 297, and 282 ha for the 12-month duration of the study. Spatial overlap of mainland groups was extensive, whereas temporal overlap was not, a pattern that indicates resource partitioning is an important strategy to avoid intraspecific competition. L. caissara large home ranges seem to be dynamic, with constant incorporation of new areas and abandonment of others through time. The main difference between mainland and island groups is the amount and variety of sleeping sites. A better understanding of the home range sizes, day range lengths, and territorial behavior of this species will aid in developing better management strategies for its protection. Additionally, the presented DMP protocol is a useful improvement over the MCP method as it results in more realistic home range sizes for wildlife species. Am. J. Primatol. 73: 1114-1126, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Analysis of Piezoelectric sensor to detect flexural waves

The electromechanical transfer characteristics of adhesively bonded piezoelectric sensors are investigated. By the use of dynamic piezoelectricity theory, Mindlin plate theory for flexural wave propagation, and a multiple integral transform method, the frequency-response functions of piezoelectric sensors with and without backing materials are developed and the pressure-voltage transduction functions of the sensors calculated. The corresponding simulation results show that the sensitivity of the sensors is not only dependent on the sensors' inherent features, such as piezoelectric properties and geometry, but also on local characteristics of the tested structures and the admittance and impedance of the attached electrical circuit. It is also demonstrated that the simplified rigid mass sensor model can be used to analyze successfully the sensitivity of the sensor at low frequencies, but that the dynamic piezoelectric continuum model has to be used for higher frequencies, especially around the resonance frequency of the coupled sensor-structure vibration system.

Supervisory control of wastewater treatment plants by combining principal component analysis and fuzzy c-means clustering

In this paper a methodology for integrated multivariate monitoring and control of biological wastewater treatment plants during extreme events is presented. To monitor the process, on-line dynamic principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the process data to extract the principal components that represent the underlying mechanisms of the process. Fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering is used to classify the operational state. Performing clustering on scores from PCA solves computational problems as well as increases robustness due to noise attenuation. The class-membership information from FCM is used to derive adequate control set points for the local control loops. The methodology is illustrated by a simulation study of a biological wastewater treatment plant, on which disturbances of various types are imposed. The results show that the methodology can be used to determine and co-ordinate control actions in order to shift the control objective and improve the effluent quality.

A generalised dynamic model for char particle gasification with structure evolution and peripheral fragmentation

A generalised model for the prediction of single char particle gasification dynamics, accounting for multi-component mass transfer with chemical reaction, heat transfer, as well as structure evolution and peripheral fragmentation is developed in this paper. Maxwell-Stefan analysis is uniquely applied to both micro and macropores within the framework of the dusty-gas model to account for the bidisperse nature of the char, which differs significantly from the conventional models that are based on a single pore type. The peripheral fragmentation and random-pore correlation incorporated into the model enable prediction of structure/reactivity relationships. The occurrence of chemical reaction within the boundary layer reported by Biggs and Agarwal (Chem. Eng. Sci. 52 (1997) 941) has been confirmed through an analysis of CO/CO2 product ratio obtained from model simulations. However, it is also quantitatively observed that the significance of boundary layer reaction reduces notably with the reduction of oxygen concentration in the flue gas, operational pressure and film thickness. Computations have also shown that in the presence of diffusional gradients peripheral fragmentation occurs in the early stages on the surface, after which conversion quickens significantly due to small particle size. Results of the early commencement of peripheral fragmentation at relatively low overall conversion obtained from a large number of simulations agree well with experimental observations reported by Feng and Bhatia (Energy & Fuels 14 (2000) 297). Comprehensive analysis of simulation results is carried out based on well accepted physical principles to rationalise model prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. AH rights reserved.

Work domain analysis and sensors I: principles and simple example

In this paper we establish a foundation for understanding the instrumentation needs of complex dynamic systems if ecological interface design (EID)-based interfaces are to be robust in the face of instrumentation failures. EID-based interfaces often include configural displays which reveal the higher-order properties of complex systems. However, concerns have been expressed that such displays might be misleading when instrumentation is unreliable or unavailable. Rasmussen's abstraction hierarchy (AH) formalism can be extended to include representations of sensors near the functions or properties about which they provide information, resulting in what we call a sensor-annotated abstraction hierarchy. Sensor-annotated AHs help the analyst determine the impact of different instrumentation engineering policies on higher-order system information by showing how the data provided from individual sensors propagates within and across levels of abstraction in the AH. The use of sensor-annotated AHs with a configural display is illustrated with a simple water reservoir example. We argue that if EID is to be effectively employed in the design of interfaces for complex systems, then the information needs of the human operator need to be considered at the earliest stages of system development while instrumentation requirements are being formulated. In this way, Rasmussen's AH promotes a formative approach to instrumentation engineering. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Acoustic analysis of speech through a hearing aid: perceptual effects of changes with two-channel compression

Compression amplification significantly alters the acoustic speech signal in comparison to linear amplification. The central hypothesis of the present study was that the compression settings of a two-channel aid that best preserved the acoustic properties of speech compared to linear amplification would yield the best perceptual results, and that the compression settings that most altered the acoustic properties of speech compared to linear would yield significantly poorer speech perception. On the basis of initial acoustic analysis of the test stimuli recorded through a hearing aid, two different compression amplification settings were chosen for the perceptual study. Participants were 74 adults with mild to moderate sensorineural hearing impairment. Overall, the speech perception results supported the hypothesis. A further aim of the study was to determine if variation in participants' speech perception with compression amplification (compared to linear amplification) could be explained by the individual characteristics of age, degree of loss, dynamic range, temporal resolution, and frequency selectivity; however, no significant relationships were found.

Dynamic stability of laminated FGM plates based on higher-order shear deformation theory

This paper conducts a dynamic stability analysis of symmetrically laminated FGM rectangular plates with general out-of-plane supporting conditions, subjected to a uniaxial periodic in-plane load and undergoing uniform temperature change. Theoretical formulations are based on Reddy's third-order shear deformation plate theory, and account for the temperature dependence of material properties. A semi-analytical Galerkin-differential quadrature approach is employed to convert the governing equations into a linear system of Mathieu-Hill equations from which the boundary points on the unstable regions are determined by Bolotin's method. Free vibration and bifurcation buckling are also discussed as subset problems. Numerical results are presented in both dimensionless tabular and graphical forms for laminated plates with FGM layers made of silicon nitride and stainless steel. The influences of various parameters such as material composition, layer thickness ratio, temperature change, static load level, boundary constraints on the dynamic stability, buckling and vibration frequencies are examined in detail through parametric studies.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 2. Residuals analysis and a case study

In Part 1 of this paper a methodology for back-to-back testing of simulation software was described. Residuals with error-dependent geometric properties were generated. A set of potential coding errors was enumerated, along with a corresponding set of feature matrices, which describe the geometric properties imposed on the residuals by each of the errors. In this part of the paper, an algorithm is developed to isolate the coding errors present by analysing the residuals. A set of errors is isolated when the subspace spanned by their combined feature matrices corresponds to that of the residuals. Individual feature matrices are compared to the residuals and classified as 'definite', 'possible' or 'impossible'. The status of 'possible' errors is resolved using a dynamic subset testing algorithm. To demonstrate and validate the testing methodology presented in Part 1 and the isolation algorithm presented in Part 2, a case study is presented using a model for biological wastewater treatment. Both single and simultaneous errors that are deliberately introduced into the simulation code are correctly detected and isolated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.