Predictive distribution models and their application in wildlife conservation

Wildlife managers are often faced with the difficult task of determining the distribution of species, and their preferred habitats, at large spatial scales. This task is even more challenging when the species of concern is in low abundance and/or the terrain is largely inaccessible. Spatially explicit distribution models, derived from multivariate statistical analyses and implemented in a geographic information system (GIS), can be used to predict the distributions of species and their habitats, thus making them a useful conservation tool. We present two such models: one for a dasyurid, the Swamp Antechinus (Antechinus minimus), and the other for a ground-dwelling bird, the Rufous Bristlebird (Dasyornis broadbenti), both of which are rare species occurring in the coastal heathlands of south-western Victoria. Models were generated using generalized linear modelling (GLM) techniques with species presence or absence as the independent variable and a series of landscape variables derived from GIS layers and high-resolution imagery as the predictors. The most parsimonious model, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, for each species then was extrapolated spatially in a GIS. Probability of species presence was used as an index of habitat suitability. Because habitat fragmentation is thought to be one of the major threats to these species, an assessment of the spatial distribution of suitable habitat across the landscape is vital in prescribing management actions to prevent further habitat fragmentation.

Estimating intergenerational distribution preferences

Resource management decisions influence not only the output of the economy but also the distribution of utility between groups within the community. The theory of cost benefit analysis provides a means of incorporating distributional changes into the decision making calculus through the application of distributional or welfare weights. However, this practice has not been widely adopted in part due to difficulties in the estimation of distributional weights. This paper addresses this problem by using the stated preference method of choice modelling to estimate distributional weights suitable for inclusion in a cost benefit analysis framework. The findings of a choice modelling experiment designed to estimate community preferences with respect to intergenerational utility distribution illustrate the potential of this method in addressing distributional issues.

Increasing population happiness through the distribution of resources

This paper concerns the ways in which public policy regarding the distribution of resources might be used to increase the happiness of the Thai population. The term happiness refers to the subjective side of life quality, which in contemporary science is more commonly referred to as subjective wellbeing (SWB). The SWB construct is described within the theoretical context of SWB homeostasis. This is a proposed management system which has the role of maintaining a positive view of the self. It will be described how the homeostatic system can be challenged by hardship. The resources that the system requires to manage such challenges will also be described. Recommended forms of SWB measurement will be considered. It is concluded that public policy which directs resources to disadvantaged population sectors may be one of the most effective initiatives to enhance population wellbeing and national productivity.

Taking environmental water requirements and climate change into account in the designation and management of protected areas for floodplain ecosystems

In 2005, the Victorian government asked the Victorian Environmental Assessment Council (VEAC) to 1) identify and evaluate the extent, condition, values, management, resources and uses of riverine red gum forests and associated fauna, wetlands, floodplain ecosystems and vegetation communities in northern Victoria; and 2) make recommendations relating to the conservation, protection and ecological sustainable use of public land. The design of a comprehensive, adequate and representative (CAR) reserve system was a key part of the recommendations made by VEAC. In order to assist in the decision-making for environmental water allocation for protected areas and other public land, a process for identifying flood-dependent natural values on the Victorian floodplains of the River Murray and its tributaries was developed.

Although some areas such as the Barmah forest are very well known, there have been few comprehensive inventories of important natural values along the Murray floodplains. For this project, VEAC sought out and compiled data on flood requirements (natural flood frequency, critical interval between floods, minimum duration of floods) for all flood-dependent ecological vegetation classes (EVCs) and threatened species along the Goulburn, Ovens, King and Murray Rivers in Victoria. The project did not include the Kerang Lakes and floodplains of the Avoca, Loddon and Campaspe Rivers. 186 threatened species and 110 EVCs (covering 224,247 ha) were identified as flood-dependent and therefore at risk from insufficient flooding.

Past environmental water allocations have targeted a variety of different natural assets (e.g. stressed red gum trees, colonial nesting waterbirds, various fish species), but consideration of the water requirements of the full suite of floodplain ecosystems and significant species has been limited. By considering the water requirements of the full range of natural assets, the effectiveness of water delivery for biodiversity can be maximised. This approach highlights the species and ecosystems most in need of water and builds on the icon sites approach to view the Murray floodplains as an interconnected system. This project also identified for the first time the flood-frequency and duration requirements for the full suite of floodplain ecosystems and significant species.

This project is the most comprehensive identification of water requirements for natural values on the floodplain to date, and is able to be used immediately to guide prioritisation of environmental watering. As more information on floodplain EVCs and species becomes available, the water requirements and distribution of values can be refined by ecologists and land and water managers. That is, the project is intended as the start of an adaptive process allowing for the incorporation of monitoring and feedback over time. The project makes it possible to transparently and easily communicate the extent to which manipulated or natural flows benefit various natural values. Quantitative and visual outputs such as maps will enable environmental managers and the public to easily see which values do and do not receive water (see http://www.veac.vic.gov.au/riverredgumfinal.htm for further details).

Use of high resolution digital multi-spectral imagery to assess the distribution of disease caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi on heathland at Anglesea, Victoria

Disease caused by the soilborne plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi causes long-term floristic and structural changes in native vegetation communities in Australia. Key components of the management of this disease are to know where it occurs and the rate at which it spreads. The distribution of P. cinnamomi has generally been assessed as locality points of infestation and mapping the extent of diseased vegetation in any area is difficult and costly. This study was undertaken in P. cinnamomi-infested heathland communities in southern Victoria, Australia, where the symptoms of P. cinnamomi arise as a mosaic within healthy vegetation. We investigated the potential to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of mapping and monitoring vegetation affected by P. cinnamomi using digital multi-spectral imaging. This technique was developed for the purposes of monitoring vegetation and provides a single, seamless ortho-rectified digital image over the total area of interest. It is used to spatially quantify small differences in the characteristics of vegetation. In this study, the symptoms of disease caused by P. cinnamomi infestation were related to differences in the imagery and were used to map areas of infestation. Comparison of the digital multi-spectral imaging indications with on-ground observations gave moderate accuracy between the datasets (κ = 0.49) for disease and healthy indications. This study demonstrates the ability of the technique to determine disease extent over broad areas in native vegetation and provides a non-invasive, cost effective tool for management.

Endemic freshwater finfish of Asia : distribution and conservation status

Freshwater finfish species richness and level of endemism in East, and South and South-East Asia that included 17 nations were studied using available databases, and included nation-wise distribution, habitat types, and conservation status. The number of endemic finfish species in the region was 559, belonging to 47 families. Families Cyprinidae and Balitoridae accounted for 43.5% and 16.2% of the total number of endemic species in the region, respectively, followed by Sisoridae (25), Gobiidae (20), Melanotaeniidae (19), and Bagridae (16), and the other 41 families had at least one endemic species. Nation-wise the most number of endemic freshwater finfish species occur in India (191), followed by China (88), Indonesia (84), and Myanmar (60). In India, the endemic species accounted for 26.4% of the native freshwater fish fauna, followed by South Korea (16.9%), the Philippines, (16.3%) and Myanmar (15.7%).

Statistically significant relationships discerned between the number of indigenous and endemic species richness to land area (X_la in 10³ km²) of the nations in the region were, Y_in = 218.961 Ln(X_la) – 843.1 (R² = 0.735; P < 0.001) and Y_e = 28.445 Ln X_la−134.47 (R² = 0.534; P < 0.01), respectively, and between indigenous and endemic species richness was Y_e = 0.079X_n− 1.558 (R² = 0.235; P < 0.05).

The overall conservation status of endemic finfish in Asia was satisfactory in that only 92 species were in some state of vulnerability, of which 37 species (6.6%) are endangered or critically endangered. However, the bulk of these species (83.7%) were cave- and or lake-dwelling fish. However, nation-wise, the endemic freshwater finfish fauna of the Philippines and Sri Lanka, based on the imperilment index, were found to be in a highly vulnerable state. Among river basins, the Mekong Basin had the highest number of endemic species (31.3%). The discrepancies between databases are highlighted and the need to consolidate information among databases is discussed. It is suggested that the Mekong Basin be considered as a biodiversity hotspot, and appropriate management strategies be introduced in this regard.

Coming soon (to a theatre near you) : the temporality of global film distribution to Australia

This article explores the changing contexts of international film exhibition in Australia over a 20-year period (1989–2009) by examining in some empirical detail Australia’s position in the global flow of films during this time. It argues that, at the most abstract level, distributors are engaged in the management and mediation of time and space in the field of global communications. It is proposed that distributors, through the organisation of temporal differentiation, are explicitly active in the creation of both cultural and commodity value. This is particularly apparent as film distributors explore and engage new methodologies of film release, which emphasise overlapping, intersecting and contradictory temporalities in the cinema experience.

Distribution, ecology and conservation of small mammals in fire-prone landscapes

Management of fire for biodiversity conservation is a global issue. This research provides new insights into the distribution of mammals in fire-prone eco-systems. A key outcome of this thesis is that understanding the role of fire over broad spatial scales and long time periods will benefit ecological and conservation management.

Corrosion impact on drinking water distribution systems : a review and future research direction

At present water treatment and distribution is of high priority to ensure that communities have access to safe and affordable drinking water. Current information states that in the United States a total annual cost of $36 billion (US) is spent replacing aging infrastructure, lost water from unaccounted-for leaks, corrosion inhibitors, internal mortar linings, external coatings, and cathodic protection as a result of corrosion. In order to reduce the cost incurred as a result of corrosion in the water distribution industry, it is essential that better corrosion management and preventative strategies are implemented. However through investigation of research previously undertaken by others, it was found that there was a lack of study of corrosion within distribution systems in the tropics taking into account the related seasonal temperature variations. To assist in the development of management strategies to improve the outcomes of drinking water distribution systems, the authors propose to implement a pilot study involving the installation of a corrosion reactor based on standard corrosion assessment technologies in a water distribution system located in the tropics.

Effects of time since fire on birds : how informative are generalized fire response curves for conservation management?

Fire is both a widespread natural disturbance that affects the distribution of species and a tool that can be used to manage habitats for species. Knowledge of temporal changes in the occurrence of species after fire is essential for conservation management in fire-prone environments. Two key issues are: whether postfire responses of species are idiosyncratic or if multiple species show a limited number of similar responses; and whether such responses to time since fire can predict the occurrence of species across broad spatial scales. We examined the response of bird species to time since fire in semiarid shrubland in southeastern Australia using data from surveys at 499 sites representing a 100-year chronosequence. We used nonlinear regression to model the probability of occurrence of 30 species with time since fire in two vegetation types, and compared species' responses with generalized response shapes from the literature. The occurrence of 16 species was significantly influenced by time since fire: they displayed six main responses consistent with generalized response shapes. Of these 16 species, 15 occurred more frequently in mid- or later-successional vegetation (>20 years since fire), and only one species occurred more often in early succession (<5 years since fire). The models had reasonable predictive ability for eight species, some predictive ability for seven species, and were little better than random for one species. Bird species displayed a limited range of responses to time since fire; thus a small set of fire ages should allow the provision of habitat for most species. Postfire successional changes extend for decades and management of the age class distribution of vegetation will need to reflect this timescale. Response curves revealed important seral stages for species and highlighted the importance of mid- to late-successional vegetation (>20 years). Although time since fire clearly influences the distribution of numerous bird species, predictive models of the spatial distribution of species in fire-prone landscapes need to incorporate other factors in addition to time since fire.

Intelligent energy management for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles : the role of ITS infrastructure in vehicle electrification

The desire to reduce carbon emissions due to transportation sources has led over the past decade to the development of new propulsion technologies, focused on vehicle electrification (including hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles). These propulsion technologies, along with advances in telecommunication and computing power, have the potential of making passenger and commercial vehicles more energy efficient and environment friendly. In particular, energy management algorithms are an integral part of plug-in vehicles and are very important for achieving the performance benefits. The optimal performance of energy management algorithms depends strongly on the ability to forecast energy demand from the vehicle. Information available about environment (temperature, humidity, wind, road grade, etc.) and traffic (traffic density, traffic lights, etc.), is very important in operating a vehicle at optimal efficiency. This article outlines some current technologies that can help achieving this optimum efficiency goal. In addition to information available from telematic and geographical information systems, knowledge of projected vehicle charging demand on the power grid is necessary to build an intelligent energy management controller for future plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles. The impact of charging millions of vehicles from the power grid could be significant, in the form of increased loading of power plants, transmission and distribution lines, emissions and economics (information are given and discussed for the US case). Therefore, this effect should be considered in an intelligent way by controlling/scheduling the charging through a communication based distributed control.

Stochastic models of road geometry and wind condition for vehicle energy management and control

Modeling and simulation is commonly used to improve vehicle performance, to optimize vehicle system design, and to reduce vehicle development time. Vehicle performances can be affected by environmental conditions and driver behavior factors, which are often uncertain and immeasurable. To incorporate the role of environmental conditions in the modeling and simulation of vehicle systems, both real and artificial data are used. Often, real data are unavailable or inadequate for extensive investigations. Hence, it is important to be able to construct artificial environmental data whose characteristics resemble those of the real data for modeling and simulation purposes. However, to produce credible vehicle simulation results, the simulated environment must be realistic and validated using accepted practices. This paper proposes a stochastic model that is capable of creating artificial environmental factors such as road geometry and wind conditions. In addition, road geometric design principles are employed to modify the created road data, making it consistent with the real-road geometry. Two sets of real-road geometry and wind condition data are employed to propose probability models. To justify the distribution goodness of fit, Pearson's chi-square and correlation statistics have been used. Finally, the stochastic models of road geometry and wind conditions (SMRWs) are developed to produce realistic road and wind data. SMRW can be used to predict vehicle performance, energy management, and control strategies over multiple driving cycles and to assist in developing fuel-efficient vehicles.

How long should we ignore imperfect detection of species in the marine environment when modelling their distribution?

The application of the 'ecosystem approach' to marine conservation management demands knowledge of the distribution patterns of the target species or communities. This information is commonly obtained from species distribution models (SDMs). This article explores an important but rarely acknowledged assumption in these models: almost all species may be present, but simply not detected by the particular survey method. However, nearly all of these SDM approaches neglect this important characteristic. This leads to the violation of a fundamental assumption of these models, which presuppose the detection of a species is equal to one (i.e. at each survey locality, a species is perfectly detected). In this article, the concept of imperfect detection is discussed, how it potentially influences the prediction of species' distributions is examined, and some statistical methods that could be used to incorporate the detection probability of species in estimates of their distribution are suggested. The approaches discussed here could improve the collection and interpretation of marine biological survey data and provide a coherent way to incorporate detection probability estimates in the modelling of species distributions. This will ultimately lead to an unbiased and more rigorous understanding of the distribution of species in the marine environment.

Evidence-based chronic heart-failure management programs : myth or reality?

Background Chronic heart-failure management programmes (CHF-MPs) have become part of standard care for patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Objective To investigate whether programmes had applied evidence-based expert clinical guidelines to optimise patient outcomes. Design A prospective cross-sectional survey was used to conduct a national audit. Setting Community setting of CHF-MPs for patients postdischarge. Sample All CHF-MPs operating during 2005–2006 (n=55). Also 10–50 consecutive patients from 48 programmes were recruited (n=1157). Main outcome measures (1) Characteristics and interventions used within each CHF-MP; and (2) characteristics of patients enrolled into these programmes. Results Overall, there was a disproportionate distribution of CHF-MPs across Australia. Only 6.3% of hospitals nationally provided a CHF-MP. A total of 8000 postdischarge CHF patients (median: 126; IQR: 26–260) were managed via CHF-MPs, representing only 20% of the potential national case load. Significantly, 16% of the caseload comprised patients in functional New York Heart Association Class I with no evidence of these patients having had previous echocardiography to confirm a diagnosis of CHF. Heterogeneity of CHF-MPs in applied models of care was evident, with 70% of CHF-MPs offering a hybrid model (a combination of heart-failure outpatient clinics and home visits), 20% conducting home visits and 16% conducting an extended rehabilitation model of care. Less than half (44%) allowed heart-failure nurses to titrate medications. The main medications that were titrated in these programmes were diuretics (n=23, 96%), β-blockers (n=17, 71%), ACE inhibitors (ACEIs) (n=14, 58%) and spironolactone (n=9, 38%). Conclusion CHF-MPs are being implemented rapidly throughout Australia. However, many of these programmes do not adhere to expert clinical guidelines for the management of patients with CHF. This poor translation of evidence into practice highlights the inconsistency and questions the quality of health-related outcomes for these patients.