CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

Testing reciprocity in social interactions: A comparison between the Directional consistency and Skew symmetry statistics

In the present work we focus on two indices that quantify directionality and skew-symmetrical patterns in social interactions as measures of social reciprocity: the Directional consistency (DC) and Skew symmetry indices. Although both indices enable researchers to describe social groups, most studies require statistical inferential tests. The main aims of the present study are: firstly, to propose an overall statistical technique for testing null hypotheses regarding social reciprocity in behavioral studies, using the DC and Skew symmetry statistics (Φ) at group level; and secondly, to compare both statistics in order to allow researchers to choose the optimal measure depending on the conditions. In order to allow researchers to make statistical decisions, statistical significance for both statistics has been estimated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, this study will enable researchers to choose the optimal observational conditions for carrying out their research, as the power of the statistical tests has been estimated.

Dosimetria em folículos tireoidianos devido aos elétrons de baixa energia do iodo usando o método Monte Carlo

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a dose absorvida em folículos tireoidianos devido aos elétrons de baixa energia, como os elétrons Auger e os de conversão interna, além das partículas beta, para os radioisótopos de iodo (131I, 132I, 133I, 134I e 135I) usando o método Monte Carlo. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: O cálculo da dose foi feito ao nível folicular, simulando elétrons Auger, conversão interna e partículas beta, com o código MCNP4C. Os folículos (colóide e células foliculares) foram modelados como esferas, com diâmetros do colóide variando de 30 a 500 mm. A densidade considerada para os folículos foi a da água (1,0 g.cm-³). RESULTADOS: Considerando partículas de baixa energia, o percentual de contribuição do 131I na dose total absorvida pelo colóide é de aproximadamente 25%, enquanto os isótopos de meia-vida física curta apresentaram contribuição de 75%. Para as células foliculares, esse percentual é ainda maior, chegando a 87% para os iodos de meia-vida curta e 13% para o 131I. CONCLUSÃO: Com base nos resultados obtidos, pode-se mostrar a importância de se considerar partículas de baixa energia na contribuição para a dose total absorvida ao nível folicular (colóide e células foliculares) devido aos radioisótopos de iodo (131I, 132I, 133I, 134I e 135I).

Redução de incertezas em radioterapia utilizando simulação Monte Carlo: análise espectral aplicada à correção de dose absorvida

OBJETIVO: Determinar, por simulação Monte Carlo, os espectros de feixes de cobaltoterapia em profundidade na água e fatores de correção para doses absorvidas em dosímetros termoluminescentes de fluoreto de lítio. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: As simulações dos espectros secundários da fonte clínica de cobalto-60 foram realizadas com o código Monte Carlo PENELOPE, em diversas profundidades na água. Medidas experimentais de dose profunda foram obtidas com dosímetros termoluminescentes e câmara de ionização em condições de referência em radioterapia. Os fatores de correção para os dosímetros termoluminescentes foram obtidos através da razão entre as absorções relativas ao espectro de baixa energia e ao espectro total. RESULTADOS: A análise espectral em profundidade revelou a existência de espectros secundários de baixa energia responsáveis por uma parcela significativa da deposição de dose. Foram observadas discrepâncias de 3,2% nas doses medidas experimentalmente com a câmara de ionização e com os dosímetros termoluminescentes. O uso dos fatores de correção nessas medidas permitiu diminuir a discrepância entre as doses absorvidas para, no máximo, 0,3%. CONCLUSÃO: Os espectros simulados permitem o cálculo de fatores de correção para as leituras de dosímetros termoluminescentes utilizados em medidas de dose profunda, contribuindo para a redução das incertezas associadas ao controle de qualidade de feixes clínicos em radioterapia.

Estudo da geometria da uréia por métodos ab initio e simulação computacional de líquidos

A study was carried out on the urea geometries using ab initio calculation and Monte Carlo computational simulation of liquids. The ab initio calculated results showed that urea has a non-planar conformation in the gas phase in which the hydrogen atoms are out of the plane formed by the heavy atoms. Free energies associated to the rotation of the amino groups of urea in water were obtained using the Monte Carlo method in which the thermodynamic perturbation theory is implemented. The magnitude of the free energy obtained from this simulation did not permit us to conclude that urea is non-planar in water.

Statistical Analysis and Numerics of Heat Exchanger Models

The identifiability of the parameters of a heat exchanger model without phase change was studied in this Master’s thesis using synthetically made data. A fast, two-step Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) was tested with a couple of case studies and a heat exchanger model. The two-step MCMC-method worked well and decreased the computation time compared to the traditional MCMC-method. The effect of measurement accuracy of certain control variables to the identifiability of parameters was also studied. The accuracy used did not seem to have a remarkable effect to the identifiability of parameters. The use of the posterior distribution of parameters in different heat exchanger geometries was studied. It would be computationally most efficient to use the same posterior distribution among different geometries in the optimisation of heat exchanger networks. According to the results, this was possible in the case when the frontal surface areas were the same among different geometries. In the other cases the same posterior distribution can be used for optimisation too, but that will give a wider predictive distribution as a result. For condensing surface heat exchangers the numerical stability of the simulation model was studied. As a result, a stable algorithm was developed.

PRACTICAL STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR CHEMICAL KINETICS

The Practical Stochastic Model is a simple and robust method to describe coupled chemical reactions. The connection between this stochastic method and a deterministic method was initially established to understand how the parameters and variables that describe the concentration in both methods were related. It was necessary to define two main concepts to make this connection: the filling of compartments or dilutions and the rate of reaction enhancement. The parameters, variables, and the time of the stochastic methods were scaled with the size of the compartment and were compared with a deterministic method. The deterministic approach was employed as an initial reference to achieve a consistent stochastic result. Finally, an independent robust stochastic method was obtained. This method could be compared with the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm developed by Gillespie, 1977. The Practical Stochastic Model produced absolute values that were essential to describe non-linear chemical reactions with a simple structure, and allowed for a correct description of the chemical kinetics.

Monte Carlo -reaktorifysiikkalaskennan ja laskennallisen virtausmekaniikan kytkentä kuulakekoreaktorissa

Monte Carlo -reaktorifysiikkakoodit nykyisin käytettävissä olevilla laskentatehoilla tarjoavat mielenkiintoisen tavan reaktorifysiikan ongelmien ratkaisuun. Neljännen sukupolven ydinreaktoreissa käytettävät uudet rakenteet ja materiaalit ovat haasteellisia nykyisiin reaktoreihin suunnitelluille laskentaohjelmille. Tässä työssä Monte Carlo -reaktorifysiikkakoodi ja CFD-koodi yhdistetään kytkettyyn laskentaan kuulakekoreaktorissa, joka on yksi korkealämpötilareaktorityyppi. Työssä käytetty lähestymistapa on uutta maailmankin mittapuussa ajateltuna.

Novel force control methods in a teleoperation system of a hydraulic slider

The objective of the this research project is to develop a novel force control scheme for the teleoperation of a hydraulically driven manipulator, and to implement an ideal transparent mapping between human and machine interaction, and machine and task environment interaction. This master‘s thesis provides a preparatory study for the present research project. The research is limited into a single degree of freedom hydraulic slider with 6-DOF Phantom haptic device. The key contribution of the thesis is to set up the experimental rig including electromechanical haptic device, hydraulic servo and 6-DOF force sensor. The slider is firstly tested as a position servo by using previously developed intelligent switching control algorithm. Subsequently the teleoperated system is set up and the preliminary experiments are carried out. In addition to development of the single DOF experimental set up, methods such as passivity control in teleoperation are reviewed. The thesis also contains review of modeling of the servo slider in particular reference to the servo valve. Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is utilized in developing the robustness of the model in presence of noise.

Neutronisäteilylle altistuminen käytetyn polttoaineen siirrossa Olkiluodon voimalaitoksella

Tässä työssä on tutkittu OL1/OL2-ydinvoimalaitosten käytetyn polttoaineen siirrossa aiheutuvaa altistusta neutronisäteilylle. Käytetty polttoaine siirretään vedellä täytetyssä käytetyn polttoaineen siirtosäiliössä Castor TVO:ssa OL1/OL2-laitoksilta käytetyn polttoaineen varastolle. Siirtotyön aikana useat eri ammattiryhmiin kuuluvat henkilöt työskentelevät siirtosäiliön välittömässä läheisyydessä, altistuen käytetystä polttoaineesta emittoituvalle fotoni- ja neutronisäteilylle. Aikaisemmista neutronisäteilyannosten mittauksista on todettu, ettei jatkuvalle altistuksen seurannalle ole ollut tarvetta. Tämän työn tarkoitus on selvittää teoreettisilla laskelmilla siirtotyöhön osallistuvan henkilön mahdollisuus saada kirjausrajan ylittävä annos neutronisäteilyä. Neutronisäteilyn annosnopeudet siirtosäiliötä ympäröivässä tilassa on laskettu yhdysvaltalaisella Monte Carlo-menetelmään perustuvalla MCNP-ohjelmalla. MCNP:llä mallinnettiin siirtosäiliö, siirtosäiliön sisältämä polttoaine ja ympäröivä tila kolmella jäähtymisajalla ja kolmella keskimääräisellä maksimipoistopalamalla. Polttoainenippujen isotooppikonsentraatiot ja säteilylähteiden voimakkuudet on laskettu Studsvik SNF-ohjelmalla. Simuloinnin perusteella voidaan todeta, ettei neutronisäteilyannosten jatkuvalle seurannalle ole tarvetta käytetyn polttoaineen siirrossa. Vaikka neutronisäteilyn annosnopeudet voivat nousta siirtosäiliön läheisyydessä suhteellisen suuriksi, ovat siirtosäiliön lähellä tehtävät työt niin lyhytaikaisia, että kirjausrajan ylitystä voidaan pitää hyvin epätodennäköisenä. Johtopäätökset varmistetaan työssä suunnitellulla mittausjärjestelyllä.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Quantum Monte Carlo study of electrostatic polarizabilities of H and He atoms /

The infinitesimal differential quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) technique is used to estimate electrostatic polarizabilities of the H and He atoms up to the sixth order in the electric field perturbation. All 542 different QMC estimators of the nonzero atomic polarizabilities are derived and used in order to decrease the statistical error and to obtain the maximum efficiency of the simulations. We are confident that the estimates are "exact" (free of systematic error): the two atoms are nodeless systems, hence no fixed-node error is introduced. Furthermore, we develope and use techniques which eliminate systematic error inherent when extrapolating our results to zero time-step and large stack-size. The QMC results are consistent with published accurate values obtained using perturbation methods. The precision is found to be related to the number of perturbations, varying from 2 to 4 significant digits.

Mesures de risque d'inflation: estimations et étude de Monte Carlo.

Rapport de recherche

Études Monte Carlo des mesures d'étalonnage aux neutrons et aux particules alpha du détecteur PICASSO

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal