Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Comparison between analytical and numerical methods for the assessment of masonry arch bridges: Case study of Clemente Bridge on Savio river

This research has focused on the study of the behavior and of the collapse of masonry arch bridges. The latest decades have seen an increasing interest in this structural type, that is still present and in use, despite the passage of time and the variation of the transport means. Several strategies have been developed during the time to simulate the response of this type of structures, although even today there is no generally accepted standard one for assessment of masonry arch bridges. The aim of this thesis is to compare the principal analytical and numerical methods existing in literature on case studies, trying to highlight values and weaknesses. The methods taken in exam are mainly three: i) the Thrust Line Analysis Method; ii) the Mechanism Method; iii) the Finite Element Methods. The Thrust Line Analysis Method and the Mechanism Method are analytical methods and derived from two of the fundamental theorems of the Plastic Analysis, while the Finite Element Method is a numerical method, that uses different strategies of discretization to analyze the structure. Every method is applied to the case study through computer-based representations, that allow a friendly-use application of the principles explained. A particular closed-form approach based on an elasto-plastic material model and developed by some Belgian researchers is also studied. To compare the three methods, two different case study have been analyzed: i) a generic masonry arch bridge with a single span; ii) a real masonry arch bridge, the Clemente Bridge, built on Savio River in Cesena. In the analyses performed, all the models are two-dimensional in order to have results comparable between the different methods taken in exam. The different methods have been compared with each other in terms of collapse load and of hinge positions.

Application of innovative methods of source apportionment in air contamination assessment

In this work, new tools in atmospheric pollutant sampling and analysis were applied in order to go deeper in source apportionment study. The project was developed mainly by the study of atmospheric emission sources in a suburban area influenced by a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI), a medium-sized coastal tourist town and a motorway. Two main research lines were followed. For what concerns the first line, the potentiality of the use of PM samplers coupled with a wind select sensor was assessed. Results showed that they may be a valid support in source apportionment studies. However, meteorological and territorial conditions could strongly affect the results. Moreover, new markers were investigated, particularly focusing on the processes of biomass burning. OC revealed a good biomass combustion process indicator, as well as all determined organic compounds. Among metals, lead and aluminium are well related to the biomass combustion. Surprisingly PM was not enriched of potassium during bonfire event. The second research line consists on the application of Positive Matrix factorization (PMF), a new statistical tool in data analysis. This new technique was applied to datasets which refer to different time resolution data. PMF application to atmospheric deposition fluxes identified six main sources affecting the area. The incinerator’s relative contribution seemed to be negligible. PMF analysis was then applied to PM2.5 collected with samplers coupled with a wind select sensor. The higher number of determined environmental indicators allowed to obtain more detailed results on the sources affecting the area. Vehicular traffic revealed the source of greatest concern for the study area. Also in this case, incinerator’s relative contribution seemed to be negligible. Finally, the application of PMF analysis to hourly aerosol data demonstrated that the higher the temporal resolution of the data was, the more the source profiles were close to the real one.

Methods for the Quantification of Motor Stability for the Assessment of Fall Risk

The research field of the Thesis is the evaluation of motor variability and the analysis of motor stability for the assessment of fall risk. Since many falls occur during walking, a better understanding of motor stability could lead to the definition of a reliable fall risk index aiming at measuring and assessing the risk of fall in the elderly, in the attempt to prevent traumatic events. Several motor variability and stability measures are proposed in the literature, but still a proper methodological characterization is lacking. Moreover, the relationship between many of these measures and fall history or fall risk is still unknown, or not completely clear. The aim of this thesis is hence to: i) analyze the influence of experimental implementation parameters on variability/stability measures and understand how variations in these parameters affect the outputs; ii) assess the relationship between variability/stability measures and long- short-term fall history. Several implementation issues have been addressed. Following the need for a methodological standardization of gait variability/stability measures, highlighted in particular for orbital stability analysis through a systematic review, general indications about implementation of orbital stability analysis have been showed, together with an analysis of the number of strides and the test-retest reliability of several variability/stability numbers. Indications about the influence of directional changes on measures have been provided. The association between measures and long/short-term fall history has also been assessed. Of all the analyzed variability/stability measures, Multiscale entropy and Recurrence quantification analysis demonstrated particularly good results in terms of reliability, applicability and association with fall history. Therefore, these measures should be taken in consideration for the definition of a fall risk index.

Automated Analysis Methods for the Assessment of Bicycle Infrastructure and Demand

A first phase of the research activity has been related to the study of the state of art of the infrastructures for cycling, bicycle use and methods for evaluation. In this part, the candidate has studied the "bicycle system" in countries with high bicycle use and in particular in the Netherlands. Has been carried out an evaluation of the questionnaires of the survey conducted within the European project BICY on mobility in general in 13 cities of the participating countries. The questionnaire was designed, tested and implemented, and was later validated by a test in Bologna. The results were corrected with information on demographic situation and compared with official data. The cycling infrastructure analysis was conducted on the basis of information from the OpenStreetMap database. The activity consisted in programming algorithms in Python that allow to extract data from the database infrastructure for a region, to sort and filter cycling infrastructure calculating some attributes, such as the length of the arcs paths. The results obtained were compared with official data where available. The structure of the thesis is as follows: 1. Introduction: description of the state of cycling in several advanced countries, description of methods of analysis and their importance to implement appropriate policies for cycling. Supply and demand of bicycle infrastructures. 2. Survey on mobility: it gives details of the investigation developed and the method of evaluation. The results obtained are presented and compared with official data. 3. Analysis cycling infrastructure based on information from the database of OpenStreetMap: describes the methods and algorithms developed during the PhD. The results obtained by the algorithms are compared with official data. 4. Discussion: The above results are discussed and compared. In particular the cycle demand is compared with the length of cycle networks within a city. 5. Conclusions

Right ventricular systolic function assessment: rank of echocardiographic methods vs. cardiac magnetic resonance imaging

Right ventricular (RV) systolic function is prognostically important, but its assessment by echocardiography remains challenging, in part because of the multitude of available measurement methods. The purpose of this prospective study was to rank these methods against the reference of RV ejection fraction (EF) as obtained in a broad clinical population by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

The role of psychological stress in inflammatory bowel disease: quality assessment of methods of 18 prospective studies and suggestions for future research

BACKGROUND: Enquiries among patients on the one hand and experimental and observational studies on the other suggest an influence of stress on inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). However, since this influence remains hypothetical, further research is essential. We aimed to devise recommendations for future investigations in IBD by means of scrutinizing previously applied methodology. METHODS: We critically reviewed prospective clinical studies on the effect of psychological stress on IBD. Eligible studies were searched by means of the PubMed electronic library and through checking the bibliographies of located sources. RESULTS: We identified 20 publications resulting from 18 different studies. Sample sizes ranged between 10 and 155 participants. Study designs in terms of patient assessment, control variables, and applied psychometric instruments varied substantially across studies. Methodological strengths and weaknesses were irregularly dispersed. Thirteen studies reported significant relationships between stress and adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Study designs, including accuracy of outcome assessment and repeated sampling of outcomes (i.e. symptoms, clinical, and endoscopic), depended upon conditions like sample size, participants' compliance, and available resources. Meeting additional criteria of sound methodology, like taking into account covariates of the disease and its course, is strongly recommended to possibly improve study designs in future IBD research.

Drug-induced acute liver injury mimicking autoimmune hepatitis after intake of dietary supplements containing glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate

INTRODUCTION Herbal and dietary supplements are widely used as measures to improve and preserve health and well-being. Among the bestselling preparations are dietary supplement containing glucosamine and chondroitine sulfate taken to improve symptoms of osteoarthritis. METHODS AND RESULTS We here present a case of a male patient with biopsy-proven acute and severe autoimmune hepatitis subsequent to intake of a preparation containing glucosamine and chondroitine sulfate. Response to steroids was favorable and resulted in complete remission of the patient. Diagnostic work-up of the case revealed no other possible cause of liver injury, and causality assessment using the Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method (RUCAM) resulted in a possible causal relationship between intake of glucosamine and chondroitine sulfate and the adverse hepatic reaction. CONCLUSION The present case recalls that products containing glucosamine and chondroitine sulfate can occasionally cause acute liver injury mimicking autoimmune hepatitis, and reminds of the potential dangers of compounds with poor efficacy and ill-defined safety records.