Financial development, financial fragility and growth

This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility(namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.

Doublecortin-positive cells in the adult primate cerebral cortex and possible role in brain plasticity and development.

We have demonstrated that cortical cell autografts might be a useful therapy in two monkey models of neurological disease: motor cortex lesion and Parkinson's disease. However, the origin of the useful transplanted cells obtained from cortical biopsies is not clear. In this report we describe the expression of doublecortin (DCX) in these cells based on reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and immunodetection in the adult primate cortex and cell cultures. The results showed that DCX-positive cells were present in the whole primate cerebral cortex and also expressed glial and/or neuronal markers such as glial fibrillary protein (GFAP) or neuronal nuclei (NeuN). We also demonstrated that only DCX/GFAP positive cells were able to proliferate and originate progenitor cells in vitro. We hypothesize that these DCX-positive cells in vivo have a role in cortical plasticity and brain reaction to injury. Moreover, in vitro these DCX-positive cells have the potential to reacquire progenitor characteristics that confirm their potential for brain repair.

An in vivo ultrahigh field 14.1 T (1) H-MRS study on 6-OHDA and α-synuclein-based rat models of Parkinson's disease: GABA as an early disease marker.

The detection of Parkinson's disease (PD) in its preclinical stages prior to outright neurodegeneration is essential to the development of neuroprotective therapies and could reduce the number of misdiagnosed patients. However, early diagnosis is currently hampered by lack of reliable biomarkers. (1) H magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) offers a noninvasive measure of brain metabolite levels that allows the identification of such potential biomarkers. This study aimed at using MRS on an ultrahigh field 14.1 T magnet to explore the striatal metabolic changes occurring in two different rat models of the disease. Rats lesioned by the injection of 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) in the medial-forebrain bundle were used to model a complete nigrostriatal lesion while a genetic model based on the nigral injection of an adeno-associated viral (AAV) vector coding for the human α-synuclein was used to model a progressive neurodegeneration and dopaminergic neuron dysfunction, thereby replicating conditions closer to early pathological stages of PD. MRS measurements in the striatum of the 6-OHDA rats revealed significant decreases in glutamate and N-acetyl-aspartate levels and a significant increase in GABA level in the ipsilateral hemisphere compared with the contralateral one, while the αSyn overexpressing rats showed a significant increase in the GABA striatal level only. Therefore, we conclude that MRS measurements of striatal GABA levels could allow for the detection of early nigrostriatal defects prior to outright neurodegeneration and, as such, offers great potential as a sensitive biomarker of presymptomatic PD.

A test of the predictive validity of non-linear QALY models using time trade-off utilities

This paper presents a test of the predictive validity of various classes ofQALY models (i.e., linear, power and exponential models). We first estimatedTTO utilities for 43 EQ-5D chronic health states and next these states wereembedded in health profiles. The chronic TTO utilities were then used topredict the responses to TTO questions with health profiles. We find that thepower QALY model clearly outperforms linear and exponential QALY models.Optimal power coefficient is 0.65. Our results suggest that TTO-based QALYcalculations may be biased. This bias can be avoided using a power QALY model.

The effect of environment on development and survival of pupae of the necrophagous fly Ophyra albuquerquei Lopes (Diptera, Muscidae)

The effect of environment on development and survival of pupae of the necrophagous fly Ophyra albuquerquei Lopes (Diptera, Muscidae). Species of Ophyra Robineau-Desvoidy, 1830 are found in decomposing bodies, usually in fresh, bloated and decay stages. Ophyra albuquerquei Lopes, for example, can be found in animal carcasses. The influence of environmental factors has not been evaluated in puparia of O. albuquerquei. Thus, the focus of this work was motivated by the need for models to predict the development of a necrophagous insect as a function of abiotic factors. Colonies of O. albuquerquei were maintained in the laboratory to obtain pupae. On the tenth day of each month 200 pupae, divided equally into 10 glass jars, were exposed to the environment and checked daily for adult emergence of each sample. We concluded that the high survival rate observed suggested that the diets used for rearing the larvae and maintaining the adults were appropriate. Also, the data adjusted to robust generalized linear models and there were no interruptions of O. albuquerquei pupae development within the limits of temperatures studied in southern Rio Grande do Sul, given the high survival presented.

Eliciting consumers preferences using stated preference discrete choice models: Contingent ranking versus choice experiment

The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly, to carry out a theoreticalreview of the most recent stated preference techniques used foreliciting consumers preferences and, secondly, to compare the empiricalresults of two dierent stated preference discrete choice approaches.They dier in the measurement scale for the dependent variable and,therefore, in the estimation method, despite both using a multinomiallogit. One of the approaches uses a complete ranking of full-profiles(contingent ranking), that is, individuals must rank a set ofalternatives from the most to the least preferred, and the other usesa first-choice rule in which individuals must select the most preferredoption from a choice set (choice experiment). From the results werealize how important the measurement scale for the dependent variablebecomes and, to what extent, procedure invariance is satisfied.

Estimating cross-industry cross-country models using benchmark industry characteristics

International industry data permits testing whether the industry-specific impact of cross-countrydifferences in institutions or policies is consistent with economic theory. Empirical implementationrequires specifying the industry characteristics that determine impact strength. Most of the literature has been using US proxies of the relevant industry characteristics. We show that usingindustry characteristics in a benchmark country as a proxy of the relevant industry characteristicscan result in an attenuation bias or an amplification bias. We also describe circumstances allowingfor an alternative approach that yields consistent estimates. As an application, we reexamine theinfluential conjecture that financial development facilitates the reallocation of capital from decliningto expanding industries.

Transitory glutathione deficit during brain development induces cognitive impairment in juvenile and adult rats: relevance to schizophrenia.

Glutathione (GSH) metabolism dysfunction is one risk factor in schizophrenia. A transitory brain GSH deficit was induced in Wistar (WIS) and mutant (ODS; lacking ascorbic acid synthesis) rats using BSO (l-buthionine-(S,R)-sulfoximine) from post-natal days 5-16. When GSH was re-established to physiological levels, juvenile BSO-ODS rats were impaired in the water maze task. Long after treatment cessation, adult BSO-WIS/-ODS rats showed impaired place discrimination in the homing board with distributed visual or olfactory cues. Their accuracy was restored when a single cue marked the trained position. Similarly, more working memory errors were made by adult BSO-WIS in the radial maze when several olfactory cues were present. These results reveal that BSO rats did not suffer simple sensory impairment. They were selectively impaired in spatial memory when the task required the integration of multimodal or olfactory cues. These results, in part, resemble some of the reported olfactory discrimination and cognitive impairment in schizophrenia.

Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

FRAX(®) Clinical Task Force of the 2010 Joint International Society for Clinical Densitometry & International Osteoporosis Foundation Position Development Conference.

The World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool, FRAX(®), is an advance in clinical care that can assist in clinical decision-making. However, with increasing clinical utilization, numerous questions have arisen regarding how to best estimate fracture risk in an individual patient. Recognizing the need to assist clinicians in optimal use of FRAX(®), the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) in conjunction with the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) assembled an international panel of experts that ultimately developed joint Official Positions of the ISCD and IOF advising clinicians regarding FRAX(®) usage. As part of the process, the charge of the FRAX(®) Clinical Task Force was to review and synthesize data surrounding a number of recognized clinical risk factors including rheumatoid arthritis, smoking, alcohol, prior fracture, falls, bone turnover markers and glucocorticoid use. This synthesis was presented to the expert panel and constitutes the data on which the subsequent Official Positions are predicated. A summary of the Clinical Task Force composition and charge is presented here.

Establishment of models to study mouse and human retinogenesis "in vitro" : isolation and characterization of retinal stem cells

SUMMARY IN FRENCH Les cellules souches sont des cellules indifférenciées capables a) de proliférer, b) de s'auto¬renouveller, c) de produire des cellules différenciées, postmitotiques et fonctionnelles (multipotencialité), et d) de régénérer le tissu après des lésions. Par exemple, les cellules de souches hematopoiétiques, situées dans la moelle osseuse, peuvent s'amplifier, se diviser et produire diverses cellules différenciées au cours de la vie, les cellules souches restant dans la moelle osseuse et consentant leur propriété. Les cellules souches intestinales, situées dans la crypte des microvillosités peuvent également régénérer tout l'intestin au cours de la vie. La rétine se compose de six classes de neurones et d'un type de cellule gliale. Tous ces types de cellules sont produits par un progéniteur rétinien. Le pic de production des photorécepteurs se situe autour des premiers jours postnatals chez la souris. A cette période la rétine contient les cellules hautement prolifératives. Dans cette étude, nous avons voulu analyser le phénotype de ces cellules et leur potentiel en tant que cellules souches ou progénitrices. Nous nous sommes également concentrés sur l'effet de certains facteurs épigéniques sur leur destin cellulaire. Nous avons observé que toutes les cellules prolifératives isolées à partir de neurorétines postnatales de souris expriment le marqueur de glie radiaire RC2, ainsi que des facteurs de transcription habituellement trouvés dans la glie radiaire (Mash1, Pax6), et répondent aux critères des cellules souches : une capacité élevée d'expansion, un état indifférencié, la multipotencialité (démontrée par analyse clonale). Nous avons étudié la différentiation des cellules dans différents milieux de culture. En l'absence de sérum, l'EGF induit l'expression de la β-tubulin-III, un marqueur neuronal, et l'acquisition d'une morphologie neuronale, ceci dans 15% des cellules présentes. Nous avons également analysé la prolifération de cellules. Seulement 20% des cellules incorporent le bromodéoxyuridine (BrdU) qui est un marqueur de division cellulaire. Ceci démontre que l'EGF induit la formation des neurones sans une progression massive du cycle cellulaire. Par ailleurs, une stimulation de 2h d'EGF est suffisante pour induire la différentiation neuronale. Certains des neurones formés sont des cellules ganglionnaires rétiniennes (GR), comme l'indique l'expression de marqueurs de cellules ganglionnaires (Ath5, Brn3b et mélanopsine), et dans de rare cas d'autres neurones rétiniens ont été observés (photorécepteurs (PR) et cellules bipolaires). Nous avons confirmé que les cellules souches rétiniennes tardives n'étaient pas restreintes au cours du temps et qu'elles conservent leur multipotencialité en étant capables de générer des neurones dits précoces (GR) ou tardifs (PR). Nos résultats prouvent que l'EGF est non seulement un facteur contrôlant le développement glial, comme précédemment démontré, mais également un facteur efficace de différentiation pour les neurones rétiniens, du moins in vitro. D'autre part, nous avons voulu établir si l'oeil adulte humain contient des cellules souches rétiniennes (CSRs). L'oeil de certains poissons ou amphibiens continue de croître pendant l'âge adulte du fait de l'activité persistante des cellules souches rétiniennes. Chez les poissons, le CSRs se situe dans la marge ciliaire (CM) à la périphérie de la rétine. Bien que l'oeil des mammifères ne se développe plus pendant la vie d'adulte, plusieurs groupes ont prouvé que l'oeil de mammifères adultes contient des cellules souches rétiniennes également dans la marge ciliaire plus précisément dans l'épithélium pigmenté et non dans la neurorétine. Ces CSRs répondent à certains critères des cellules souches. Nous avons identifié et caractérisé les cellules souches rétiniennes résidant dans l'oeil adulte humain. Nous avons prouvé qu'elles partagent les mêmes propriétés que leurs homologues chez les rongeurs c.-à-d. auto-renouvellement, amplification, et différenciation en neurones rétiniens in vitro et in vivo (démontré par immunocoloration et microarray). D'autre part, ces cellules peuvent être considérablement amplifiées, tout en conservant leur potentiel de cellules souches, comme indiqué par l'analyse de leur profil d'expression génique (microarray). Elles expriment également des gènes communs à diverses cellules souches: nucleostemin, nestin, Brni1, Notch2, ABCG2, c-kit et son ligand, aussi bien que cyclin D3 qui agit en aval de c-kit. Nous avons pu montré que Bmi1et Oct4 sont nécessaires pour la prolifération des CSRs confortant leur propriété de cellules souches. Nos données indiquent que la neurorétine postnatale chez la souris et l'épithélium pigmenté de la marge ciliaire chez l'humain adulte contiennent les cellules souches rétiniennes. En outre, nous avons développé un système qui permet d'amplifier et de cultiver facilement les CSRs. Ce modèle permet de disséquer les mécanismes impliqués lors de la retinogenèse. Par exemple, ce système peut être employé pour l'étude des substances ou des facteurs impliqués, par exemple, dans la survie ou dans la génération des cellules rétiniennes. Il peut également aider à disséquer la fonction de gènes ou les facteurs impliqués dans la restriction ou la spécification du destin cellulaire. En outre, dans les pays occidentaux, la rétinite pigmentaire (RP) touche 1 individu sur 3500 et la dégénérescence maculaire liée à l'âge (DMLA) affecte 1 % à 3% de la population âgée de plus de 60 ans. La génération in vitro de cellules rétiniennes est aussi un outil prometteur pour fournir une source illimitée de cellules pour l'étude de transplantation cellulaire pour la rétine. SUMMARY IN ENGLISH Stem cells are defined as undifferentiated cells capable of a) proliferation, b) self maintenance (self-renewability), c) production of many differentiated functional postmitotic cells (multipotency), and d) regenerating tissue after injury. For instance, hematopoietic stem cells, located in bone marrow, can expand, divide and generate differentiated cells into the diverse lineages throughout life, the stem cells conserving their status. In the villi crypt, the intestinal stem cells are also able to regenerate the intestine during their life time. The retina is composed of six classes of neurons and one glial cell. All these cell types are produced by the retinal progenitor cell. The peak of photoreceptor production is reached around the first postnatal days in rodents. Thus, at this stage the retina contains highly proliferative cells. In our research, we analyzed the phenotype of these cells and their potential as possible progenitor or stem cells. We also focused on the effect of epigenic factor(s) and cell fate determination. All the proliferating cells isolated from mice postnatal neuroretina harbored the radial glia marker RC2, expressed transcription factors usually found in radial glia (Mash 1, Pax6), and met the criteria of stem cells: high capacity of expansion, maintenance of an undifferentiated state, and multipotency demonstrated by clonal analysis. We analyzed the differentiation seven days after the transfer of the cells in different culture media. In the absence of serum, EGF led to the expression of the neuronal marker β-tubulin-III, and the acquisition of neuronal morphology in 15% of the cells. Analysis of cell proliferation by bromodeoxyuridine incorporation revealed that EGF mainly induced the formation of neurons without stimulating massively cell cycle progression. Moreover, a pulse of 2h EGF stimulation was sufficient to induce neuronal differentiation. Some neurons were committed to the retinal ganglion cell (RGC) phenotype, as revealed by the expression of retinal ganglion markers (Ath5, Brn3b and melanopsin), and in few cases to other retinal phenotypes (photoreceptors (PRs) and bipolar cells). We confirmed that the late RSCs were not restricted over-time and conserved multipotentcy characteristics by generating retinal phenotypes that usually appear at early (RGC) or late (PRs) developmental stages. Our results show that EGF is not only a factor controlling glial development, as previously shown, but also a potent differentiation factor for retinal neurons, at least in vitro. On the other hand, we wanted to find out if the adult human eye contains retina stem cells. The eye of some fishes and amphibians continues to grow during adulthood due to the persistent activity of retinal stem cells (RSCs). In fish, the RSCs are located in the ciliary margin zone (CMZ) at the periphery of the retina. Although, the adult mammalian eye does not grow during adult life, several groups have shown that the adult mouse eye contains retinal stem cells in the homologous zone (i.e. the ciliary margin), in the pigmented epithelium and not in the neuroretina. These RSCs meet some criteria of stem cells. We identified and characterized the human retinal stem cells. We showed that they posses the same features as their rodent counterpart i.e. they self-renew, expand and differentiate into retinal neurons in vitro and in vivo (indicated by immunostaining and microarray analysis). Moreover, they can be greatly expanded while conserving their sternness potential as revealed by the gene expression profile analysis (microarray approach). They also expressed genes common to various stem cells: nucleostemin, nestin, Bmil , Notch2, ABCG2, c-kit and its ligand, as well as cyclin D3 which acts downstream of c-kit. Furthermore, Bmil and Oct-4 were required for RSC proliferation reinforcing their stem cell identity. Our data indicate that the mice postnatal neuroretina and the adult pigmented epithelium of adult human ciliary margin contain retinal stem cells. We developed a system to easily expand and culture RSCs that can be used to investigate the retinogenesis. For example, it can help to screen drugs or factors involved, for instance, in the survival or generation of retinal cells. This could help to dissect genes or factors involved in the restriction or specification of retinal cell fate. In Western countries, retinitis pigmentosa (RP) affects 1 out of 3'500 individuals and age-related macula degeneration (AMD) strikes 1 % to 3% of the population over 60. In vitro generation of retinal cells is thus a promising tool to provide an unlimited cell source for cellular transplantation studies in the retina.

Développement, implémentation et utilisation pratique d'un score diagnostique [Development, implementation and practical use of a diagnostic score].

In recent years many clinical prediction rules (CPR) have been developed. Before a CPR can be used in clinical practice, different methodical steps are necessary, from the development of the score, the internal and external validation to the impact study. Before using a CPR in daily practice family doctors have to verify how the rules have been developed and whether this has been done in a population similar to the population in which they would use them. The aim of this paper is to describe the development of a CPR, and to discuss advantages and risks related to the use of CPR in order to help family doctors in their choice of scores for use in their daily practice.

Hand development and sequence of ossification in the forelimb of the European shrew Crocidura russula (Soricidae) and comparisons across therian mammals.

Hand development in the European shrew Crocidura russula is described, based on the examination of a cleared and double-stained ontogenetic series and histological sections of a c. 20-day-old embryo and a neonate. In the embryo all carpal elements are still mesenchymal condensations, and there are three more elements than in the adult stage: the 'lunatum', which fuses with the scaphoid around birth; a centrale, which either fuses with another carpal element or just disappears later in ontogeny; and the anlage of an element that later fuses with the radius. Carpal arrangement in the neonate and the adult is the same. In order to compare the relative timing of the onset of ossification in forelimb bones in C. russula with that of other therians, we built up two matrices of events based on two sets of data and used the event-pair method. In the first analysis, ossification of forelimb elements in general was examined, including that of the humerus, radius, ulna, the first carpal and metacarpal to ossify, and the phalanges of the third digit. The second analysis included each carpal, humerus, radius, ulna, the first metacarpal and the first phalanx to ossify. Some characters (= event-pairs) provide synapomorphies for some clades examined. There have been some shifts in the timing of ossification apparently not caused by ecological and/or environmental influences. In two species (Oryctolagus and Myotis), there is a tendency to start the ossification of the carpals relatively earlier than in all other species examined, the sauropsid outgroups included.

Incremental Validity and Indirect effect of Ethical Development on Work Performance

We modeled work performance as outcomes of individual-differences mediated by technical performance. Beyond the "usual suspects" (e.g., general mental ability, and personality), we also measured the ethical development of participants (n = 460). We surmised that ethical development - which has not been extensively studied as a predictor of work performance while controlling for established predictors - captures unique variance in both technical and work performance. Results demonstrated incremental validity for ethical development in predicting technical performance, which in turn predicted work performance. The indirect effect of ethical development was significant too. Our results highlight the importance of process models of performance, which include proximal as well as distal individual differences.

Development of an erythropoietin prescription simulator to improve abilities for the prescription of erythropoietin stimulating agents: is it feasible?

BACKGROUND: The increasing use of erythropoietins with long half-lives and the tendency to lengthen the administration interval to monthly injections call for raising awareness on the pharmacokinetics and risks of new erythropoietin stimulating agents (ESA). Their pharmacodynamic complexity and individual variability limit the possibility of attaining comprehensive clinical experience. In order to help physicians acquiring prescription abilities, we have built a prescription computer model to be used both as a simulator and education tool. METHODS: The pharmacokinetic computer model was developed using Visual Basic on Excel and tested with 3 different ESA half-lives (24, 48 and 138 hours) and 2 administration intervals (weekly vs. monthly). Two groups of 25 nephrologists were exposed to the six randomised combinations of half-life and administration interval. They were asked to achieve and maintain, as precisely as possible, the haemoglobin target of 11-12 g/dL in a simulated naïve patient. Each simulation was repeated twice, with or without randomly generated bleeding episodes. RESULTS: The simulation using an ESA with a half-life of 138 hours, administered monthly, compared to the other combinations of half-lives and administration intervals, showed an overshooting tendency (percentages of Hb values > 13 g/dL 15.8 ± 18.3 vs. 6.9 ± 12.2; P < 0.01), which was quickly corrected with experience. The prescription ability appeared to be optimal with a 24 hour half-life and weekly administration (ability score indexing values in the target 1.52 ± 0.70 vs. 1.24 ± 0.37; P < 0.05). The monthly prescription interval, as suggested in the literature, was accompanied by less therapeutic adjustments (4.9 ± 2.2 vs. 8.2 ± 4.9; P < 0.001); a direct correlation between haemoglobin variability and number of therapy modifications was found (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Computer-based simulations can be a useful tool for improving ESA prescription abilities among nephrologists by raising awareness about the pharmacokinetic characteristics of the various ESAs and recognizing the factors that influence haemoglobin variability.