Comparative advantage in demand: Experimental evidence of preferences for genetically modified food in the United States and European Union

The United States (US) exports more than US$6 billion in agricultural commodities to the European Union (EU) each year, but one issue carries the potential to diminish this trade: use of biotechnology in food production. The EU has adopted more stringent policies towards biotechnology than the US. Understanding differences in European and American policies towards genetically modified (GM) foods requires a greater understanding of consumers' attitudes and preferences. This paper reports results from the first large-scale, cross-Atlantic study to analyse consumer demand for genetically modified food in a non-hypothetical market environment. We strongly reject the frequent if convenient assumption in trade theory that consumer preferences are identical across countries: the median level of compensation demanded by English and French consumers to consume a GM food is found to be more than twice that in any of the US locations. Results have important implications for trade theory, which typically focusses on differences in specialization, comparative advantage and factor endowments across countries, and for on-going trade disputes at the World Trade Organization.

Time-varying coefficients in the almost ideal demand system: An empirical appraisal

This paper provides a generalisation of the structural time series version of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) that allows for time-varying coefficients (TVC/AIDS) in the presence of cross-equation constraints. An empirical appraisal of the TVC/AIDS is made using a dynamic AIDS with trending intercept as the baseline model with a data set from the Italian Household Budget Survey (1986-2001). The assessment is based on four criteria: adherence to theoretical constraints, statistical diagnostics on residuals, forecasting performance and economic meaningfulness. No clear evidence is found for superior performance of the TVC/AIDS, apart from improved short-term forecasts.

Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm

Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as consumer preferences may vary significantly over time. Filtering and smoothing techniques have recently played an increasingly relevant role. A dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System with random walk parameters is estimated in order to detect modifications in consumer habits and preferences, as well as changes in the behavioural response to prices and income. Systemwise estimation, consistent with the underlying constraints from economic theory, is achieved through the EM algorithm. The proposed model is applied to UK aggregate consumption of alcohol and tobacco, using quarterly data from 1963 to 2003. Increased alcohol consumption is explained by a preference shift, addictive behaviour and a lower price elasticity. The dynamic and time-varying specification is consistent with the theoretical requirements imposed at each sample point. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aggregation of parasitism risk in an aphid-parasitoid system: Effects of plant patch size and aphid density

Few studies have linked density dependence of parasitism and the tritrophic environment within which a parasitoid forages. In the non-crop plant-aphid, Centaurea nigra-Uroleucon jaceae system, mixed patterns of density-dependent parasitism by the parasitoids Aphidius funebris and Trioxys centaureae were observed in a survey of a natural population. Breakdown of density-dependent parasitism revealed that density dependence was inverse in smaller colonies but direct in large colonies (>20 aphids), suggesting there is a threshold effect in parasitoid response to aphid density. The CV2 of searching parasitoids was estimated from parasitism data using a hierarchical generalized linear model, and CV2>1 for A. funebris between plant patches, while for T. centaureae CV2>1 within plant patches. In both cases, density independent heterogeneity was more important than density-dependent heterogeneity in parasitism. Parasitism by T. centaureae increased with increasing plant patch size. Manipulation of aphid colony size and plant patch size revealed that parasitism by A. funebris was directly density dependent at the range of colony sizes tested (50-200 initial aphids), and had a strong positive relationship with plant patch size. The effects of plant patch size detected for both species indicate that the tritrophic environment provides a source of host density independent heterogeneity in parasitism, and can modify density-dependent responses. (c) 2007 Gessellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Inclusion of nonlinear demand-supply relationships within large-scale partial equilibrium linear programming models

This paper presents a new method for the inclusion of nonlinear demand and supply relationships within a linear programming model. An existing method for this purpose is described first and its shortcomings are pointed out before showing how the new approach overcomes those difficulties and how it provides a more accurate and 'smooth' (rather than a kinked) approximation of the nonlinear functions as well as dealing with equilibrium under perfect competition instead of handling just the monopolistic situation. The workings of the proposed method are illustrated by extending a previously available sectoral model for the UK agriculture.

Testing symmetry and homogeneity in the almost ideal demand system with co-integrated data using fully modified estimation and the bootstrap

Conventional seemingly unrelated estimation of the almost ideal demand system is shown to lead to small sample bias and distortions in the size of a Wald test for symmetry and homogeneity when the data are co-integrated. A fully modified estimator is developed in an attempt to remedy these problems. It is shown that this estimator reduces the small sample bias but fails to eliminate the size distortion.. Bootstrapping is shown to be ineffective as a method of removing small sample bias in both the conventional and fully modified estimators. Bootstrapping is effective, however, as a method of removing. size distortion and performs equally well in this respect with both estimators.

The neurokinin 1 receptor: a potential new target for anti-platelet therapy?

The important role of platelets in the development of arterial thrombosis and cardiovascular disease is well established. Current treatments for arterial thrombosis include anti-platelet agents such as aspirin, thienopyridines and glycoprotein IIb-IIIa inhibitors. Despite these drugs being effective there remains a substantial unmet clinical demand for more effective therapeutic approaches, which may reflect the existence of alternative underlying regulatory mechanisms to those already targeted. Recent publications have demonstrated a key role for tachykinins in the positive feedback regulation of platelet aggregation and thrombus formation. The pro-thrombotic effects of tachykinins on platelets are mediated through the neurokinin 1 receptor, which may therefore offer a novel therapeutic drug target in the prevention and the treatment of arterial thrombosis.

Ingestion of onion soup high in quercetin inhibits platelet aggregation and essential components of the collagen-stimulated platelet activation pathway in man: a pilot study

Epidemiological data suggest that those who consume a diet rich in quercetin-containing foods may have a reduced risk of CVD. Furthermore, in vitro and ex vivo studies have observed the inhibition of collagen-induced platelet activation by quercetin. The aim of the present study was to investigate the possible inhibitory effects of quercetin ingestion from a dietary source on collagen-stimulated platelet aggregation and signalling. A double-blind randomised cross-over pilot study was undertaken. Subjects ingested a soup containing either a high or a low amount of quercetin. Plasma quercetin concentrations and platelet aggregation and signalling were assessed after soup ingestion. The high-quercetin soup contained 69 mg total quercetin compared with the low-quercetin soup containing 5 mg total quercetin. Plasma quercetin concentrations were significantly higher after high-quercetin soup ingestion than after low-quercetin soup ingestion and peaked at 2.59 (SEM 0.42) mu mol/l. Collagen-stimulated (0.5 mu g/ml) platelet aggregation was inhibited after ingestion of the high-quercetin soup in a time-dependent manner. Collagen-stimulated tyrosine phosphorylation of a key component of the collagen-signalling pathway via glycoprotein VI, Syk, was significantly inhibited by ingestion of the high-quercetin soup. The inhibition of Syk tyrosine phosphorylation was correlated with the area under the curve for the high-quercetin plasma profile. In conclusion, the ingestion of quercetin from a dietary source of onion soup could inhibit some aspects of collagen-stimulated platelet aggregation and signalling ex vivo. This further substantiates the epidemiological data suggesting that those who preferentially consume high amounts of quercetin-containing foods have a reduced risk of thrombosis and potential CVD risk.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sulfation of genistein alters its antioxidant properties and its effect on platelet aggregation and monocyte and endothelial function

Soy isoflavones have been extensively studied because of their possible benefits to human health. Genistein, the major isoflavone aglycone, has received most attention; however, it undergoes extensive metabolism (e.g. conjugation with sulfuric acid) in the gut and liver, which may affect its biological proper-ties. This study investigated the antioxidant activity and free radical-scavenging properties of genistein, genistein-4'-sulfate and genistein-4'-7-disulfate as well as their effect on platelet aggregation and monocyte and endothelial function. Electron spin resonance spectroscopy (ESR) and spin trapping data and other standard antioxidant assays indicated that genistein is a relatively weak antioxidant compared to quercetin and that its sulfated metabolites are even less effective. Furthermore, genistein-4'-sulfate was less potent than genistem, and genistein-4'-7-disulfate even less potent, at inhibiting collagen-induced platelet aggregation, nitric oxide (NO) production by macrophages, and secretion by primary human endothelial cells of monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1), intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1) and vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (VCAM-1). The current data suggest that sulfation of genistein, with the associated loss of hydroxyl groups, decreases its antioxidant activity and its effect on platelet aggregation, inflammation, cell adhesion and chemotaxis. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Effect of genistein and daidzein on platelet aggregation and monocyte and endothelial function

There has been much recent interest in the cardiovascular benefits of dietary isoflavones. The aim of the present in vitro studies was to investigate potential anti-thrombogenic and anti-atherogenic effects of the isoflavones genistein and daidzein in platelets, macrophages and endothelial cells. Pre-treatment with either isoflavone inhibited collagen-induced platelet aggregation in a dose-dependent manner. In a macrophage cell line (RAW 264-7) activated with interferon gamma plus lipopolysaccharide, both isoflavones were found to inhibit NO production and tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) secretion dose-dependently, but they did not affect mRNA levels for inducible nitric oxide synthase and cyclo-oxygenase-2. Both isoflavones also dose-dependently decreased monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 secretion induced by TNF-alpha in human umbilical vein endothelial cells. Compared with daidzein, genistein exerted greater inhibitory effects for all parameters studied. The present data contributes to our knowledge on the molecular mechanisms by which isoflavones may protect against coronary artery disease. Further studies are required to determine whether the effects of isoflavones observed in the current in vitro studies are relevant to the aetiology of coronary artery disease in vivo.