Models and tools for an integrated European environmental management and decision support system, (IEEMDSS)

This work proceeds from the assumption that a European environmental information and communication system (EEICS) is already established. In the context of primary users (land-use planners, conservationists, and environmental researchers) we ask what use may be made of the EEICS for building models and tools which is of use in building decision support systems for the land-use planner. The complex task facing the next generation of environmental and forest modellers is described, and a range of relevant modelling approaches are reviewed. These include visualization and GIS; statistical tabulation and database SQL, MDA and OLAP methods. The major problem of noncomparability of the definitions and measures of forest area and timber volume is introduced and the possibility of a model-based solution is considered. The possibility of using an ambitious and challenging biogeochemical modelling approach to understanding and managing European forests sustainably is discussed. It is emphasised that all modern methodological disciplines must be brought to bear, and a heuristic hybrid modelling approach should be used so as to ensure that the benefits of practical empirical modelling approaches are utilised in addition to the scientifically well-founded and holistic ecosystem and environmental modelling. The data and information system required is likely to end up as a grid-based-framework because of the heavy use of computationally intensive model-based facilities.

Flexible and robust run-time configuration for self-managing systems

This paper describes a methodology for deploying flexible dynamic configuration into embedded systems whilst preserving the reliability advantages of static systems. The methodology is based on the concept of decision points (DP) which are strategically placed to achieve fine-grained distribution of self-management logic to meet application-specific requirements. DP logic can be changed easily, and independently of the host component, enabling self-management behavior to be deferred beyond the point of system deployment. A transparent Dynamic Wrapper mechanism (DW) automatically detects and handles problems arising from the evaluation of self-management logic within each DP and ensures that the dynamic aspects of the system collapse down to statically defined default behavior to ensure safety and correctness despite failures. Dynamic context management contributes to flexibility, and removes the need for design-time binding of context providers and consumers, thus facilitating run-time composition and incremental component upgrade.

A run-time configurable software architecture for self-managing systems

This paper describes a highly flexible component architecture, primarily designed for automotive control systems, that supports distributed dynamically- configurable context-aware behaviour. The architecture enforces a separation of design-time and run-time concerns, enabling almost all decisions concerning runtime composition and adaptation to be deferred beyond deployment. Dynamic context management contributes to flexibility. The architecture is extensible, and can embed potentially many different self-management decision technologies simultaneously. The mechanism that implements the run-time configuration has been designed to be very robust, automatically and silently handling problems arising from the evaluation of self- management logic and ensuring that in the worst case the dynamic aspects of the system collapse down to static behavior in totally predictable ways.

Adaptive ordering for imperfect successive decision feedback multiuser detection

A method for selecting the order in which the users are detected in communication systems employing adaptive successive decision feedback multiuser detection is proposed. Systems employing channel coding without the assumption of perfect decision feedback are analyzed. The method is based on the mean squared error (MSE) measurements during a training period for each user. The analysis' shows that the method delivers BER performance improvement relative to other previously proposed ordering methods

Coastal Zone Ecosystem Services: From science to values and decision making; a case study

This research is concerned with the following environmental research questions: socio-ecological system complexity, especially when valuing ecosystem services; ecosystems stock and services flow sustainability and valuation; the incorporation of scale issues when valuing ecosystem services; and the integration of knowledge from diverse disciplines for governance and decision making. In this case study, we focused on ecosystem services that can be jointly supplied but independently valued in economic terms: healthy climate (via carbon sequestration and storage), food (via fisheries production in nursery grounds), and nature recreation (nature watching and enjoyment). We also explored the issue of ecosystem stock and services flow, and we provide recommendations on how to value stock and flows of ecosystem services via accounting and economic values respectively. We considered broadly comparable estuarine systems located on the English North Sea coast: the Blackwater estuary and the Humber estuary. In the past, these two estuaries have undergone major land-claim. Managed realignment is a policy through which previously claimed intertidal habitats are recreated allowing the enhancement of the ecosystem services provided by saltmarshes. In this context, we investigated ecosystem service values, through biophysical estimates and welfare value estimates. Using an optimistic (extended conservation of coastal ecosystems) and a pessimistic (loss of coastal ecosystems because of, for example, European policy reversal) scenario, we find that context dependency, and hence value transfer possibilities, vary among ecosystem services and benefits. As a result, careful consideration in the use and application of value transfer, both in biophysical estimates and welfare value estimates, is advocated to supply reliable information for policy making.

Computerised Diagnostic Decision Support System for the Classification of Pre-Invasive Cervical Squamous Lesions.

Previous studies have revealed considerable interobserver and intraobserver variation in the histological classification of preinvasive cervical squamous lesions. The aim of the present study was to develop a decision support system (DSS) for the histological interpretation of these lesions. Knowledge and uncertainty were represented in the form of a Bayesian belief network that permitted the storage of diagnostic knowledge and, for a given case, the collection of evidence in a cumulative manner that provided a final probability for the possible diagnostic outcomes. The network comprised 8 diagnostic histological features (evidence nodes) that were each independently linked to the diagnosis (decision node) by a conditional probability matrix. Diagnostic outcomes comprised normal; koilocytosis; and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1, CIN II, and CIN M. For each evidence feature, a set of images was recorded that represented the full spectrum of change for that feature. The system was designed to be interactive in that the histopathologist was prompted to enter evidence into the network via a specifically designed graphical user interface (i-Path Diagnostics, Belfast, Northern Ireland). Membership functions were used to derive the relative likelihoods for the alternative feature outcomes, the likelihood vector was entered into the network, and the updated diagnostic belief was computed for the diagnostic outcomes and displayed. A cumulative probability graph was generated throughout the diagnostic process and presented on screen. The network was tested on 50 cervical colposcopic biopsy specimens, comprising 10 cases each of normal, koilocytosis, CIN 1, CIN H, and CIN III. These had been preselected by a consultant gynecological pathologist. Using conventional morphological assessment, the cases were classified on 2 separate occasions by 2 consultant and 2 junior pathologists. The cases were also then classified using the DSS on 2 occasions by the 4 pathologists and by 2 medical students with no experience in cervical histology. Interobserver and intraobserver agreement using morphology and using the DSS was calculated with K statistics. Intraobserver reproducibility using conventional unaided diagnosis was reasonably good (kappa range, 0.688 to 0.861), but interobserver agreement was poor (kappa range, 0.347 to 0.747). Using the DSS improved overall reproducibility between individuals. Using the DSS, however, did not enhance the diagnostic performance of junior pathologists when comparing their DSS-based diagnosis against an experienced consultant. However, the generation of a cumulative probability graph also allowed a comparison of individual performance, how individual features were assessed in the same case, and how this contributed to diagnostic disagreement between individuals. Diagnostic features such as nuclear pleomorphism were shown to be particularly problematic and poorly reproducible. DSSs such as this therefore not only have a role to play in enhancing decision making but also in the study of diagnostic protocol, education, self-assessment, and quality control. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Monoamines and decision making during contests in the hermit crab Pagurus bernhardus

During fights animals are expected to make a series of strategic decisions that involve interactions between information about the contest and the individual's nervous system that produce a change in behaviour. Biogenic monoamines such as serotonin ('5-HT') and dopamine are thought to prime decision-making centres for appropriate responses during aggressive interactions in crustaceans, and circulating levels vary both between individuals and during agonistic encounters. Aminergenic systems operate in diverse animal taxa and in this study we assayed circulating levels of S-HT and dopamine following shell fights in the common European hermit crab, Pagurus bernhardus. The two roles in these fights, attacker and defender, perform different activities but, in both, S-HT increased and dopamine declined in response to engaging in a fight. In defenders but not attackers, giving up was correlated with low 5-HT and dopamine. In attackers, motivation to initiate a fight was positively correlated with dopamine levels. Circulating monoamines are therefore involved in decision making during these aggressive encounters. (c) 2007 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Code Allocation for Interference Management on the Downlink of DS-CDMA Systems

A new technique based on adaptive code-to-user allocation for interference management on the downlink of BPSK based TDD DS-CDMA systems is presented. The principle of the proposed technique is to exploit the dependency of multiple access interference on the instantaneous symbol values of the active users. The objective is to adaptively allocate the available spreading sequences to users on a symbol-by-symbol basis to optimize the decision variables at the downlink receivers. The presented simulations show an overall system BER performance improvement of more than an order of a magnitude with the proposed technique while the adaptation overhead is kept less than 10% of the available bandwidth.

Evaluating Train Protection Systems

This paper arose from the work carried out for the Cullen/Uff Joint Inquiry into Train Protection Systems. It is concerned with the problem of evaluating the benefits of safety enhancements in order to avoid rare, but catastrophic accidents, and the role of Operations Research in the process. The problems include both input values and representation of outcomes. A key input is the value of life. This paper briefly discusses why the value of life might vary from incident to incident and reviews alternative estimates before producing a 'best estimate' for rail. When the occurrence of an event is uncertain, the normal method is to apply a single 'expected' value. This paper argues that a more effective method of representing such situations is through Monte-Carlo simulation and demonstrates the use of the methodology on a case study of the decision as to whether or not advanced train protection (ATP) should have been installed on a route to the west of London. This paper suggests that the output is more informative than traditional cost-benefit appraisals or engineering event tree approaches. It also shows that, unlike the results from utilizing the traditional approach, the value of ATP on this route would be positive over 50% of the time.

A strategic review of electricity systems models

Electricity systems models are software tools used to manage electricity demand and the electricity systems, to trade electricity and for generation expansion planning purposes. Various portfolios and scenarios are modelled in order to compare the effects of decision making in policy and on business development plans in electricity systems so as to best advise governments and industry on the least cost economic and environmental approach to electricity supply, while maintaining a secure supply of sufficient quality electricity. The modelling techniques developed to study vertically integrated state monopolies are now applied in liberalised markets where the issues and constraints are more complex. This paper reviews the changing role of electricity systems modelling in a strategic manner, focussing on the modelling response to key developments, the move away from monopoly towards liberalised market regimes and the increasing complexity brought about by policy targets for renewable energy and emissions. The paper provides an overview of electricity systems modelling techniques, discusses a number of key proprietary electricity systems models used in the USA and Europe and provides an information resource to the electricity analyst not currently readily available in the literature on the choice of model to investigate different aspects of the electricity system.

Tree-Based Adaptive Spatial Detection for Adaptive Modulated MIMO Systems

Adaptive Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) systems achieve a much higher information rate than conventional fixed schemes due to their ability to adapt their configurations according to the wireless communications environment. However, current adaptive MIMO detection schemes exhibit either low performance (and hence low spectral efficiency) or huge computational
complexity. In particular, whilst deterministic Sphere Decoder (SD) detection schemes are well established for static MIMO systems, exhibiting deterministic parallel structure, low computational complexity and quasi-ML detection performance, there are no corresponding adaptive schemes. This paper solves
this problem, describing a hybrid tree based adaptive modulation detection scheme. Fixed Complexity Sphere Decoding (FSD) and Real-Values FSD (RFSD) are modified and combined into a hybrid scheme exploited at low and medium SNR to provide the highest possible information rate with quasi-ML Bit Error
Rate (BER) performance, while Reduced Complexity RFSD, BChase and Decision Feedback (DFE) schemes are exploited in the high SNR regions. This algorithm provides the facility to balance the detection complexity with BER performance with compatible information rate in dynamic, adaptive MIMO communications
environments.