994 resultados para Crop yield forecasting
Resumo:
Multi-environment trials (METs) used to evaluate breeding lines vary in the number of years that they sample. We used a cropping systems model to simulate the target population of environments (TPE) for 6 locations over 108 years for 54 'near-isolines' of sorghum in north-eastern Australia. For a single reference genotype, each of 547 trials was clustered into 1 of 3 'drought environment types' (DETs) based on a seasonal water stress index. Within sequential METs of 2 years duration, the frequencies of these drought patterns often differed substantially from those derived for the entire TPE. This was reflected in variation in the mean yield of the reference genotype. For the TPE and for 2-year METs, restricted maximum likelihood methods were used to estimate components of genotypic and genotype by environment variance. These also varied substantially, although not in direct correlation with frequency of occurrence of different DETs over a 2-year period. Combined analysis over different numbers of seasons demonstrated the expected improvement in the correlation between MET estimates of genotype performance and the overall genotype averages as the number of seasons in the MET was increased.
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Functional knowledge of the physiological basis of crop adaptation to stress is a prerequisite for exploiting specific adaptation to stress environments in breeding programs. This paper presents an analysis of yield components for pearl millet, to explain the specific adaptation of local landraces to stress environments in Rajasthan, India. Six genotypes, ranging from high-tillering traditional landraces to low-tillering open-pollinated modern cultivars, were grown in 20 experiments, covering a range of nonstress and drought stress patterns. In each experiment, yield components (particle number, grain number, 100 grain mass) were measured separately for main shoots, basal tillers, and nodal tillers. Under optimum conditions, landraces had a significantly lower grain yield than the cultivars, but no significant differences were observed at yield levels around 1 ton ha(-1). This genotype x environment interaction for grain yield was due to a difference in yield strategy, where landraces aimed at minimising the risk of a crop failure under stress conditions, and modem cultivars aimed at maximising yield potential under optimum conditions. A key aspect of the adaptation of landraces was the small size of the main shoot panicle, as it minimised (1) the loss of productive tillers during stem elongation; (2) the delay in anthesis if mid-season drought occurs; and (3) the reduction in panicle productivity of the basal tillers under stress. In addition, a low investment in structural panicle weight, relative to vegetative crop growth rate, promoted the production of nodal tillers, providing a mechanism to compensate for reduced basal tiller productivity if stress occurred around anthesis. A low maximum 100 grain mass also ensured individual grain mass was little affected by environmental conditions. The strategy of the high-tillering landraces carries a yield penalty under optimum conditions, but is expected to minimise the risk of a crop failure, particularly if mid-season drought stress occurs. The yield architecture of low-tillering varieties, by contrast, will be suited to end-of-season drought stress, provided anthesis is early. Application of the above adaptation mechanisms into a breeding program could enable the identification of plant types that match the prevalent stress patterns in the target environments. (C) 2003 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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The objective of this work was to evaluate the productive performance of broccoli under different top-dressing organic fertilizations. The experiment was conducted under protected cultivation, in a completely randomized design with four replications, with two plants per experimental unit. Broccoli seedlings were produced in a commercial substrate in styrofoam trays. The seedlings were transplanted to plastic pots containing 10.0 L of substrate made up of subsoil and organic compost at the ratio of 3:1 (v/v), respectively, which is equivalent to about 20.0 t ha-1 of organic compost at planting. After seedling establishment, the top-dressing fertilization treatments were applied: gliricidia biomass associated or not with liquid biofertilizer of cattle manure to the soil and bokashi. Two control treatments were established: one with mineral fertilization recommended for the crop and the other without top-dressing fertilization. The broccoli production was evaluated (commercial standard). Plants that received mineral fertilizer were more productive, however, they were not significantly different (p>0.05), by Dunnet test, from the plants fertilized with 2.5 t ha-1 gliricidiabiomass (dry mass) associated with liquid biofertilizer (2.0 L m-2) applied to soil. Top-dressing fertilizations with only gliricidia, at 2.5 and 5.0 t ha-1 of biomass (dry mass), resulted in no significant increase in production of broccoli inflorescence. The use of bokashi in addition to gliricidia biomass and liquid biofertilizer reduced the efficiency of the fertilization compared with plants that received only gliricidia and liquid biofertilizer.
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The use of cover crops is important for the agricultural crop and soil management in order to improve the system and, consequently, to increase yield. Therefore, the present study analyzed the effect of crop residues of black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) (BO) and a cocktail (CO) of BO, forage turnip (Raphanus sativus L.) (FT) and common vetch (Vicia sativa L.) (V) on the emergence speed index (ESI), seedling emergence speed (SES) plant height and soybean yield in different intervals between cover crop desiccation with glyphosate 480 (3 L ha-1) and BRS 232 cultivar sowing. Plots of 5 x 2.5 m with 1 m of border received four treatments with BO cover crops and four with CO as well as a control for each cover crop, at random, with five replications. The plots were desiccated in intervals of 1, 10, 20 and 30 days before soybean seeding. The harvest was manual while yield was adjusted to 13% of moisture content. The experimental design was completely randomized with splitplots and means compared by the Scott and Knott test at 5% of significance. The results showed that CO of cover crops can be recommended for soybean to obtain a more vigorous seedling emergence, from 10 days after cover crop desiccation.
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The use of cover crops in no-tillage systems can provide better conditions for the development of soybean plants with positive effects on grain yield and growth analysis techniques allow researchers to characterize and understand the behavior of soybean plants under different straw covers. Thus, the aim of this study was to characterize, using growth analysis, yield components and agronomic performance of soybean under common bean, Brachiaria brizantha and pearl millet straws. The experiment was performed on a soil under cerrado in the municipality of Santo Antônio de Goiás, GO. The experiment was arranged in a randomized complete block design with three treatments (cover crops) and five replications. Soybean grain yield was lower in the B. brizantha straw treatment (3,708 kg ha-1) than both in the pearl millet (4.772 kg ha-1) and common bean straw treatments (5,200 kg ha-1). The soybean growth analysis in B. brizantha, pearl millet and common bean allowed characterizing the variation in the production of dry matter of leaves, stems, pods and total and leaf area index that provided different grain yields. The cover crop directly affects the soybean grain yield.
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Soybean genotypes grown in sub-tropical climate may exhibit lodging. The plant lodging is influenced by soil type and fertility level, sowing date, latitude and altitude of the location, plant population and conditions of crop development. Plant regulators and herbicides are able to avoid or reduce plant lodging. This study aimed to verify the effects of the growth regulators TIBA and daminozide on vegetative growth and yield of soybean cultivar CD 214 RR. The experiment was carried out at a field in randomized block design with four replications in a factorial scheme. The A factor was represented by the combination of regulators TIBA and daminozide and its concentrations, and the Factor B was seven times of evaluation of injury and plant height or eight times of evaluation of lodging. In the range of doses used, the application of daminozide resulted in greater injury to soybean plants than TIBA. The smaller plant height was achieved by the application of 6 g ha-1 of TIBA and 1200 g ha-¹ of daminozide. Treatments with daminozide (100 g ha-¹) and TIBA (10 g ha-1) stood out due to the reduced lodging of soybean plants. Grain weight increased linearly when the levels of TIBA increased. There was a negative correlation between lodging and grain yield and a positive correlation between plant height and lodging. There was also a negative correlation between injury caused by the application of plant regulators and lodging.
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The different methods of sewage sludge stabilization modify their physical chemical and biological properties, altering its efficiency when applied in agriculture. The objective of this study was to evaluate the nutrient levels in soil and the yield of sunflower fertilized with sewage sludge stabilized by different processes. The experiment was conducted in Cambisol, with the treatments: control (without fertilization), fertilization with sewage sludge solarized, composted, vermicomposted, limed and chemical fertilizer recommended for sunflower crop. The experimental design a randomized block with four replications. The different methods of sewage sludge treatment did not affect the yield; however, the application of sewage sludge, regardless the stabilization process adopted, was more effective than chemical fertilizer and the control treatment. Overall, fertilization with limed sewage sludge provided higher soil nutrients concentrations, while treatments with composted and vermicomposted sewage sludge showed higher levels of nutrients in the plant.
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The objective of this study was to evaluate split nitrogen (N) fertilization of maize applied in band at sowing and top dressing with and without crop rotation, under no-till. The experiment was conducted with six N rates at sowing (0, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 kg ha-1) combined with three rates in top dressing (40, 70, 100 kg ha-1) and two management systems: after five cropping sequences of maize and crop rotation (maize + soybean + oat + soybean + corn) in a randomized block design with four replications. The crop rotation system increased yield in approximately 7% in relation to the area without rotation. The split of nitrogen fertilization, in rates above 39 and 54 kg ha-1 at sowing and 70 and 40 kg ha-1 in top dressing, resulted in yield higher than that obtained with the application of 100 kg ha-1 in top dressing. Grain yield was higher with the rates 50 and 70 kg ha-1 of N compared with that obtained with 20 and 100 kg ha-1 at sowing and top dressing, respectively. The rate 70 kg ha-1 of N resulted in the highest yield at the lowest cost compared with the revenues and costs incurred with the rates 40 and 100 kg ha-1.
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NBPT (N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide), a urease inhibitor, has been reported as one of the most promising compounds to maximize urea nitrogen use in agricultural systems. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of irrigated wheat fertilized with urea or urea + NBPT as single or split application. The experiment was conducted from June to October 2006 in Viçosa, MG, Brazil. The experimental design followed a 2×2 factorial scheme, in which urea or urea + NBPT were combined with two modes of application: full dose at sowing (60kg ha-1) or split (20kg ha-1 at sowing + 40kg ha-1 as topdressing at tillering), in randomized blocks with ten replications. The split application of nitrogen fertilization does not improve the yield wheat under used conditions. The use of urease inhibitor improves the grain yield of wheat crop when urea is applied in topdressing at tillering, but its use does not promote difference when urea is applied in the furrow at planting.
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There is a growing interest in optimizing the positive effects of the association between Azospirillum bacteria and corn crop in order to reduce the use of nitrogen fertilizers. This study aimed to evaluate the inoculation efficiency of an A. brasilense-based commercial product in association with different rates of nitrogen fertilization in two corn genotypes. The experiment was arranged in a 2 x 2 x 5 factorial randomized block design, with four replications. The treatments consisted of two corn hybrids (30F53 and CD386); with and without inoculation with a commercial product based on A. brasilense and five nitrogen rates (0, 40, 80, 120 and 160 kg ha-1). The variables plant height, basal stem diameter, leaf area, shoot dry matter, leaf nitrogen content, length and diameter of the cob, weight of 100 grains and grain yield were evaluated. Inoculation with A. brasilense provided increases of 11 and 12% in leaf area and shoot dry matter, respectively. There were differences in the response of the corn hybrids for most variables and the increase in nitrogen supply provided increments in the growth and yield of corn.
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ABSTRACT The sunflower plant is an oilseed crop that has aroused a great interest in the Brazilian and international scenery especillay because of the possibility of using its oil for biodiesel production. The objective of this study was to evaluate productivity and yield components of Embrapa 122 sunflower according to the spatial arrangement. Treatments were arranged in 4 x 4 factorial arrangement, which are the four spacings between rows (0.30; 0.50; 0.70 and 0.90 m) and four sowing densities (30,000; 45,000; 60,000 and 75,000 plants ha-1). The experiment was carried out in a complete randomized block design with four replications. The experiments were conducted in the experimental area of the Plant Science Department in Fortaleza, State of Ceará-Brazil and on the Curu Vale Experimental Farm in Pentecoste, State of Ceará-Brazil. Productivity and the following production components were analyzed in the end of the crop cycle: harvested capitula, capitulum diameter, capitulum mass, achene mass per capitulum, mass of 100 achenes, achenes per capitulum, harvest index and oil content in the achenes. The experiments were analyzed jointly in relation to the cropping area and the data submitted to analysis of variance and quantitative factors tested by polynomial regression. The variables, spacing, density and cropping area did not interact with these variables and the spatial arrangement of the plants affected only the components. The cropping area influences the productive behavior of sunflower Embrapa 122. The spatial arrangement of the plants of sunflower of variety Embrapa 122 influences yield components but does not affect productivity.
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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
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Fruit tree production is gaining an increasing importance in the central Amazon and elsewhere in the humid tropics, but very little is known about the nutrient dynamics in the soil-plant system. The present study quantified the effects of fertilization and cover cropping with a legume (Pueraria phaseoloides (Roxb.) Benth.) on soil nitrogen (N) dynamics and plant nutrition in a young guarana plantation (Paullinia cupana Kunth. (H.B. and K.) var. sorbilis (Mart.) Ducke) on a highly weathered Xanthic Ferralsol. Large subsoil nitrate (NO3-) accumulation at 0.3-3 m below the guarana plantation indicated N leaching from the topsoil. The NO3- contents to a depth of 2 m were 2.4 times greater between the trees than underneath unfertilized trees (P<0.05). The legume cover crop between the trees increased soil N availability as shown by elevated aerobic N mineralization and lower N immobilization in microbial biomass. The guarana N nutrition and yield did not benefit from the N input by biological fixation of atmospheric N2 by the legume cover (P>0.05). Even without a legume intercrop, large amounts of NO3- were found in the subsoil between unfertilized trees. Subsoil NO3- between the trees could be utilized, however, by fertilized guarana. This can be explained by a more vigorous growth of fertilized trees which had a larger nutrient demand and exploited a larger soil volume. With a legume cover crop, however, more mineral N was available at the topsoil which was leached into the subsoil and consequently accumulated at 0.3-3 m depth. Fertilizer additions of P and K were needed to increase subsoil NO3- use between trees.
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In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.