Duros Desafios à Frente

Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia

O que é preciso para crescer?

Novo centro de pesquisa sobre desenvolvimento da FGV tem como foco educação e eficiência. Políticas industriais serão questionadas.

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

As fontes do atraso e das flutuações cíclicas brasileiras

O objetivo deste artigo é identificar as fontes de crescimento de longo prazo e dos movimentos cíclicos do produto na economia brasileira. Buscamos entender as fontes de atraso da economia brasileira e os determinantes dos movimentos cíclicos do produto que tornam as recessões custosas. Para estudar fatores de longo praza utilizamos metodologia de descomposição de crescimento e para estudar movimentos cíclicos trabalhamos com métodos de contabilidade de cíclos e "wedges". Mostramos que as distorções às decisões dos agentes - e.g., fricções no mercado de trabalho - possuem um papel importante nas flutuações econômicas e até mesmo no longo prazo.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil- the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, whichmay not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

The long term effects of Bolsa Família on child labour and school enrolment

In this paper we study the e ects of conditional cash transfers in school enrolment and tackling child labour. We develop a dynamic heterogeneous agent general equilibrium model, where households face a set of tradeo s while allocating their children's time in leisure activities, schooling and working. We calibrate the model using data from the Brazilian survey PNAD, before the policy was implemented, in order to quantify the e ects of a conditional transfer. We then evaluate the results of a policy experiment that implements a conditional cash transfer scheme similar to the Brazilian Bolsa Fam lia. Our results suggest that the program, in the long term, is able to substantially increase school registration and reduce child labour and poverty. In addition, we nd out that a progressive conditional cash transfer results is even more e ective in tackling child labour and increasing school enrolment.

Relatório de estágio realizado na Escola Básica do 1.º Ciclo com Pré-Escolar da Nazaré

O presente relatório de estágio insere-se no segundo ano do Mestrado em Educação Pré-Escolar e Ensino do 1.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico, tendo sido elaborado para a obtenção do grau de mestre. O estágio pedagógico foi realizado na turma 3.º B da Escola Básica do 1.º Ciclo com Pré-Escolar da Nazaré. Com a redação deste relatório pretendo expor a análise e a reflexão relativas ao estágio pedagógico desenvolvido. Todo este processo reveste-se de fundamentação teórica, com o intuito de credibilizar as afirmações, o planeamento, a metodologia e as estratégias educativas utilizadas. São apresentados os dados adquiridos através da metodologia de investigaçãoação, que possibilitou determinar a questão-problema a investigar, desenvolvendo a competência matemática. Permitindo também recolher dados acerca dos interesses e dificuldades dos alunos, a fim de reajustar a prática educativa. A práxis baseou-se sobretudo na aprendizagem significativa e na aprendizagem pela ação, ou seja, num processo de ensino-aprendizagem onde os alunos são os principais construtores do seu conhecimento. Neste sentido, os pressupostos metodológicos adotados incidiram na perspetiva construtivista, na aprendizagem cooperativa e na promoção de atividades contextualizadas e promotoras da motivação dos alunos. Ao longo do relatório estão patentes as atividades promovidas com os alunos nas diversas áreas curriculares e as intervenções realizadas com a comunidade educativa. Estas últimas tiveram como finalidade promover uma parceria entre a escola, pais e restante comunidade escolar, pois quando esta está entrosada surte nos alunos aprendizagens significativas e contextualizadas. De igual modo, exibe-se a avaliação, que foi imprescindível para a recolha de informações, que permitiram aperfeiçoar as práticas. O relatório desfecha com a reflexão final acerca da intervenção pedagógica desenvolvida, constituída pelos aspetos mais pertinentes que contribuíram para o meu crescimento e desenvolvimento enquanto pessoa e profissional.