The 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa in ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal forecast products

This study evaluates the use of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in monitoring and forecasting drought conditions during the recent 2010–2011 drought in the Horn of Africa (HoA). The region was affected by a precipitation deficit in both the October–December 2010 and March–May 2011 rainy seasons. These anomalies were captured by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), despite its limitations in representing the March–May interannual variability. Soil moisture anomalies of ERAI also identified the onset of the drought condition early in October 2010 with a persistent drought still present in September 2011. This signal was also evident in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) remote sensing data. The precipitation deficit in October–December 2010 was associated with a strong La Niña event. The ECMWF seasonal forecasts for the October–December 2010 season predicted the La Niña event from June 2010 onwards. The forecasts also predicted a below-average October–December rainfall, from July 2010 onwards. The subsequent March–May rainfall anomaly was only captured by the new ECWMF seasonal forecast system in the forecasts starting in March 2011. Our analysis shows that a recent (since 1999) drying in the region during the March–May season is captured by the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system and is consistent with recently published results. The HoA region and its population are highly vulnerable to future droughts, thus global monitoring and forecasting of drought, such as that presented here, will become increasingly important in the future. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

The role of anomalous SST and surface fluxes over the Southeastern North Atlantic in the explosive development of windstorm Xynthia

In late February 2010 the extraordinary windstorm Xynthia crossed over Southwestern and Central Europe and caused severe damage, affecting particularly the Spanish and French Atlantic coasts. The storm was embedded in uncommon large-scale atmospheric and boundary conditions prior to and during its development, namely enhanced sea surface temperatures (SST) within the low-level entrainment zone of air masses, an unusual southerly position of the polar jet stream, and a remarkable split jet structure in the upper troposphere. To analyse the processes that led to the rapid intensification of this exceptional storm originating close to the subtropics (30°N), the sensitivity of the cyclone intensification to latent heat release is determined using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM forced with ERA-Interim data. A control simulation with observed SST shows that moist and warm air masses originating from the subtropical North Atlantic were involved in the cyclogenesis process and led to the formation of a vertical tower with high values of potential vorticity (PV). Sensitivity studies with reduced SST or increased laminar boundary roughness for heat led to reduced surface latent heat fluxes. This induced both a weaker and partly retarded development of the cyclone and a weakening of the PV-tower together with reduced diabatic heating rates, particularly at lower and mid levels. We infer that diabatic processes played a crucial role during the phase of rapid deepening of Xynthia and thus to its intensity over the Southeastern North Atlantic. We suggest that windstorms like Xynthia may occur more frequently under future climate conditions due to the warming SSTs and potentially enhanced latent heat release, thus increasing the windstorm risk for Southwestern Europe.

Phylogenetic relationships, diversification and biogeography in Neotropical Brotogeris parakeets

Aim We present a molecular phylogenetic analysis of Brotogeris (Psittacidae) using several distinct and complementary approaches: we test the monophyly of the genus, delineate the basal taxa within it, uncover their phylogenetic relationships, and finally, based on these results, we perform temporal and spatial comparative analyses to help elucidate the historical biogeography of the Neotropical region. Location Neotropical lowlands, including dry and humid forests. Methods Phylogenetic relationships within Brotogeris were investigated using the complete sequences of the mitochondrial genes cyt b and ND2, and partial sequences of the nuclear intron 7 of the gene for Beta Fibrinogen for all eight species and 12 of the 17 taxa recognized within the genus (total of 63 individuals). In order to delinetae the basal taxa within the genus we used both molecular and plumage variation, the latter being based on the examination of 597 skin specimens. Dates of divergence and confidence intervals were estimated using penalized likelihood. Spatial and temporal comparative analyses were performed including several closely related parrot genera. Results Brotogeris was found to be a monophyletic genus, sister to Myiopsitta. The phylogenetic analyses recovered eight well-supported clades representing the recognized biological species. Although some described subspecies are diagnosably distinct based on morphology, there was generally little intraspecific mtDNA variation. The Amazonian species had different phylogenetic affinities and did not group in a monophyletic clade. Brotogeris diversification took place during the last 6 Myr, the same time-frame as previously found for Pionus and Pyrilia. Main conclusions The biogeographical history of Brotogeris implies a dynamic history for South American biomes since the Pliocene. It corroborates the idea that the geological evolution of Amazonia has been important in shaping its biodiversity, argues against the idea that the region has been environmentally stable during the Quaternary, and suggests dynamic interactions between wet and dry forest habitats in South America, with representatives of the Amazonian biota having several independent close relationships with taxa endemic to other biomes.

SPECTRUM OF SCREENING MASSES FOR SU(2) GAUGE THEORY: UNIVERSALITY CLASS

In this work we study the spectrum of the lowest screening masses for Yang-Mills theories on the lattice. We used the SU(2) gauge group in (3 + 1) dmensions. We adopted the multiple exponential method and the so-called ""variational"" method, in order to detect possible excited states. The calculations were done near the critical temperature of the confinement-deconfinement phase transition. We obtained values for the ratios of the screening masses consistent with predictions from universality arguments. A Monte Carlo evolution of the screening masses in the gauge theory confirms the validity of the predictions.

Posicionamento de réplicas em sistemas distribuídos

Replicação de objetos é usada para garantir uma maior disponibilidade de recursos em um sistema distribuído. Porém, com a replicação, surgem problemas como o controle da consistência das réplicas e onde estas réplicas devem estar posicionadas. A consistência é garantida por um protocolo de consistência de réplicas. Para facilitar a implementação dos protocolos de controle de réplicas, pode-se utilizar mecanismos de comunicação de grupo como suporte para a replicação. Outro problema importante que surge com a replicação é o posicionamento das réplicas. A carga de processamento em um sistema distribuído muda continuamente e num determinado instante pode ser necessário mudar a distribuição atual das réplicas pela adição de novas réplicas, remoção de réplicas desnecessárias ou pela mudança de posicionamento das réplicas. Um sistema de gerenciamento de réplicas pode realizar esta tarefa. Este trabalho apresenta o sistema RPM – Replica Placement Manager – responsável por fornecer ao serviço de gerenciamento de réplicas uma lista ordenada de nodos potencialmente ideais, num determinado momento do processamento, para receber uma réplica de um objeto. Esta lista é criada pelo RPM, considerando um pequeno conjunto de variáveis estáticas e dinâmicas, facilmente obtidas nos nodos do sistema distribuído.

Contratos de crédito ao consumidor: autonomia e proteção

O presente artigo parte do contrato de crédito ao consumidor para iniciar uma reflexão sobre o aparente descompasso entre o papel da autonomia nos direitos subjetivos patrimoniais e extrapatrimoniais. Para isso, aborda os limites de aplicação do Código de Defesa do Consumidor - Lei 8.078/90 – nas relações bancárias, especialmente as de crédito. Em seguida, analisa a atual configuração da equação autonomia e dirigismo contratual. O objetivo final é abrir espaço de reflexão sobre o alcance da liberdade contratual, no âmbito dos contratos de crédito, tantas vezes considerada inexistente.

Ceratomicose em equinos

O cavalo, dado o seu meio ambiente, está sujeito a afecções frequentes da córnea e da conjuntiva, tecidos oculares bastante expostos a bactérias e fungos, principalmente Aspergillus spp. e Fusarium spp. As ceratites ulcerativas bacterianas e fúngicas, bem como as ceratites fúngicas não ulcerativas, caracterizadas principalmente pelo abscesso estromal, são frequentes nessa espécie. Ocorrida a lesão inicial, perpetua-se um ciclo vicioso, com liberação de citocinas inflamatórias, que desencadeiam uma rápida e severa infiltração corneal por células polimorfonucleares. A córnea torna-se sujeita à destruição por enzimas proteolíticas liberadas pelos micro-organismos e por células inflamatórias, capazes de desencadear a dissolução estromal e a perfuração do bulbo ocular. O tratamento clínico para a resolução da doença corneal e o controle da uveíte reflexa deve ser agressivo e associado, muitas das vezes, à terapia cirúrgica. Este artigo discorre sobre a fisiopatologia e o tratamento da ceratomicose em equinos.

Rendimento de grãos de aveia branca (Avena sativa l.) em densidades de plantas e doses de nitrogênio

O experimento foi realizado na Fazenda Experimental Lageado, Unesp Botucatu - SP, em um Nitossolo Vermelho distroférrico, em plantio direto sobre resteva de milho. O delineamento experimental foi em blocos ao acaso, com quatro repetições. As densidades de plantas (60, 120, 180, 240 e 300 plantas m²) constituíram as parcelas e as doses de N em cobertura (0, 20, 40, 60 e 80kg ha-1) constituíram as sub-parcelas. O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar o rendimento de grãos de aveia branca cultivada em diferentes densidades de plantas e doses de N. Os resultados foram submetidos à análise de variância (teste F), e as médias submetidas à regressão polinomial. Verificou-se interação significativa para as variáveis avaliadas. O rendimento de grãos foi influenciado positivamente pelas densidades e doses de N. O número final de panículas foi influenciado pelas médias de densidades de plantas e doses de N e o número de grãos por panícula foi influenciado negativamente pelas densidades e positivamente pelas doses de N. A massa de mil grãos foi maior nas maiores densidades de plantas e nas doses intermediárias de N. Com redução na densidade inicial de plantas, o rendimento de grãos esperado foi alcançado com aumento na dose de N em cobertura. Com densidade normal de plantas e doses recomendadas de N em cobertura, o rendimento de grãos obtido foi maior que o esperado.

Fast-forward/fast-backward substitutions on vector computers

This paper deals with approaches for sparse matrix substitutions using vector processing. Many publications have used the W-matrix method to solve the forward/backward substitutions on vector computer. Recently a different approach has been presented using dependency-based substitution algorithm (DBSA). In this paper the focus is on new algorithms able to explore the sparsity of the vectors. The efficiency is tested using linear systems from power systems with 118, 320, 725 and 1729 buses. The tests were performed on a CRAY Y MP2E/232. The speedups for a fast-forward/fast-backward using a 1729-bus system are near 19 and 14 for real and complex arithmetic operations, respectively. When forward/backward is employed the speedups are about 8 and 6 to perform the same simulations.

Colorimetric determination of sulfur dioxide in air using a droplet collector of malachite green solution

The measurement of sulfur dioxide in air at the parts-per-billion level is described. The experimental arrangement consists of two optical fibers placed on opposite sides of a liquid droplet of malachite green solution. After light has been passed through the droplet, the transmitted light is measured by a referenced photodetection arrangement. The light used in this absorption process is from a monochromatic source (lambda(max) 625 nm). This arrangement permits the variation of color in the droplet to be measured. The sulfur dioxide in the sample is collected by the droplet; it reacts with malachite green resulting in a colorless dye. The decoloration of the solution is proportional to the concentration of sulfur dioxide sampled. The signal depends on the sample flow rate. The present technique is simple, inexpensive, and permits a fast and near real time measurement while consuming very little reagent, (C) 1999 Academic Press.

The effect of the ocean water immersion and UV ageing on the dynamic mechanical properties of the PPS/glass fiber composites

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Solucao de sistemas lineares com matrizes e vetores esparsos em computadores vetoriais

This paper presents a methodology for solving a set of linear sparse equations on vector computers. The new methodology is able to exploit the matrix and vector sparsities. The implementation was made on a CRAY Y-MP 2E/232 computer and the results were taken from electric power systems with 118, 320, 725 and 1729 buses. The proposed methodology was compared with three previous methods and the results show the superior performance of the new one.

Las pequeñas y medianas industrias en Ecuador

Incluye Bibliografía

On the bound-state spectrum of a nonrelativistic particle in the background of a short-ranged linear potential

The nonrelativistic problem of a particle immersed in a triangular potential well, set forth by N. A. Rao and B. A. Kagali, is revised. It is shown that these researchers misunderstood the full meaning of the potential and obtained a wrong quantization condition. By exploring the space inversion symmetry, this work presents the correct solution to this problem with potential applications in electronics in a simple and transparent way. © Electronic Journal of Theoretical Physics. All rights reserved.