Time is Running Out: The 2°C Target and Optimal Climate Policies

The quintessence of recent natural science studies is that the 2 degrees C target can only be achieved with massive emission reductions in the next few years. The central twist of this paper is the addition of this limited time to act into a non-perpetual real options framework analysing optimal climate policy under uncertainty. The window-of-opportunity modelling setup shows that the limited time to act may spark a trend reversal in the direction of low-carbon alternatives. However, the implementation of a climate policy is evaded by high uncertainty about possible climate pathways.

Accurate performance of a rat model of schizophrenia in the water maze depends on visual cue availability and stability: a distortion in cognitive mapping abilities?

Rats were treated postnatally (PND 5-16) with BSO (l-buthionine-(S,R)-sulfoximine) in an animal model of schizophrenia based on transient glutathione deficit. The BSO treated rats were impaired in patrolling a maze or a homing table when adult, yet demonstrated preserved escape learning, place discrimination and reversal in a water maze task [37]. In the present work, BSO rats' performance in the water maze was assessed in conditions controlling for the available visual cues. First, in a completely curtained environment with two salient controlled cues, BSO rats showed little accuracy compared to control rats. Secondly, pre-trained BSO rats were impaired in reaching the familiar spatial position when curtains partially occluded different portions of the room environment in successive sessions. The apparently preserved place learning in a classical water maze task thus appears to require the stability and the richness of visual landmarks from the surrounding environment. In other words, the accuracy of BSO rats in place and reversal learning is impaired in a minimal cue condition or when the visual panorama changes between trials. However, if the panorama remains rich and stable between trials, BSO rats are equally efficient in reaching a familiar position or in learning a new one. This suggests that the BSO accurate performance in the water maze does not satisfy all the criteria for a cognitive map based navigation on the integration of polymodal cues. It supports the general hypothesis of a binding deficit in BSO rats.

Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.

Human GnRH deficiency: a unique disease model to unravel the ontogeny of GnRH neurons.

Evolutionary survival of a species is largely a function of its reproductive fitness. In mammals, a sparsely populated and widely dispersed network of hypothalamic neurons, the gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) neurons, serve as the pilot light of reproduction via coordinated secretion of GnRH. Since it first description, human GnRH deficiency has been recognized both clinically and genetically as a heterogeneous disease. A spectrum of different reproductive phenotypes comprised of congenital GnRH deficiency with anosmia (Kallmann syndrome), congenital GnRH deficiency with normal olfaction (normosmic idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism), and adult-onset hypogonadotropic hypogonadism has been described. In the last two decades, several genes and pathways which govern GnRH ontogeny have been discovered by studying humans with GnRH deficiency. More importantly, detailed study of these patients has highlighted the emerging theme of oligogenicity and genotypic synergism, and also expanded the phenotypic diversity with the documentation of reversal of GnRH deficiency later in adulthood in some patients. The underlying genetic defect has also helped understand the associated nonreproductive phenotypes seen in some of these patients. These insights now provide practicing clinicians with targeted genetic diagnostic strategies and also impact on clinical management.

What if there was a stronger pharmaceutical price competition in Spain? When regulation has a similar effect to collusion

This paper examines statins competition in the Spanish pharmaceutical market, where prices are highly regulated, and simulates a situation in which there is unrestricted price competition. A nested logit demand model is estimated with a panel of monthly data for pharmaceuticals prescribed from 1997 to 2005. The simulation indicates that the regulation of prices is similar in its effects to cooperation among producers, since the regulated prices are close to those that would be observed in a scenario of perfect collusion. Freedom to set prices and a regulatory framework with appropriate incentives would result in a general reduction in prices and may make the current veiled competition in the form of discounts to pharmacists become more visible. The decrease in prices would be partially offset by an increase in consumption but the net effect would be an overall decrease in expenditure. The counterfactual set-up would also lead to important changes in the market shares of both manufacturers and active ingredients, and a reversal of generic drugs. Therefore, pro-competitive regulation would be welfare-enhancing but would imply winners and losers.

Active mitral ring for post-surgical remote correction of residual mitral regurgitation on the beating heart.

OBJECTIVES: Residual mitral regurgitation after valve repair worsens patients' clinical outcome. Postimplant adjustable mitral rings potentially address this issue, allowing the reshaping of the annulus on the beating heart under echocardiography control. We developed an original mitral ring allowing valve geometry remodelling after the implantation and designed an animal study to assess device effectiveness in correcting residual mitral regurgitation. METHODS: The device consists of two concentric rings: one internal and flexible, sutured to the mitral annulus and a second external and rigid. A third conic element slides between the two rings, modifying the shape of the flexible ring. This sliding element is remotely activated with a rotating tool. Animal model: in adult swine, under cardio pulmonary bypass and cardiac arrest, we shortened the primary chordae of P2 segment to reproduce Type III regurgitation and implanted the active ring. We used intracardiac ultrasound to assess mitral regurgitation and the efficacy of the active ring to correct it. RESULTS: Severe mitral regurgitation (3+ and 4+) was induced in eight animals, 54 ± 6 kg in weight. Vena contracta width decreased from 0.8 ± 0.2 to 0.1 cm; proximal isovelocity surface area radius decreased from 0.8 ± 0.2 to 0.1 cm and effective regurgitant orifice area decreased from 0.50 ± 0.1 to 0.1 ± 0.1 cm(2). Six animals had a reversal of systolic pulmonary flow that normalized following the activation of the device. All corrections were reversible. CONCLUSIONS: Postimplant adjustable mitral ring corrects severe mitral regurgitation through the reversible modification of the annulus geometry on the beating heart. It addresses the frequent and morbid issue of recurrent mitral valve regurgitation.

Role of fibroblast growth factor (FGF) signaling in the neuroendocrine control of human reproduction.

Fibroblast growth factor (FGF) signaling is critical for a broad range of developmental processes. In 2003, Fibroblast growth factor receptor 1 (FGFR1) was discovered as a novel locus causing both forms of isolate GnRH Deficiency, Kallmann syndrome [KS with anosmia] and normosmic idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism [nIHH] eventually accounting for approximately 10% of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) deficiency cases. Such cases are characterized by a broad spectrum of reproductive phenotypes from severe congenital forms of GnRH deficiency to reversal of HH. Additionally, the variable expressivity of both reproductive and non-reproductive phenotypes among patients and family members harboring the identical FGFR1 mutations has pointed to a more complex, oligogenic model for GnRH deficiency. Further, reversal of HH in patients carrying FGFR1 mutations suggests potential gene-environment interactions in human GnRH deficiency disorders.

Pursestring closure of the stoma site leads to fewer wound infections: results from a multicenter randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Surgical site infection after stoma reversal is common. The optimal skin closure technique after stoma reversal has been widely debated in the literature. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that pursestring near-complete closure of the stoma site would lead to fewer surgical site infections compared with conventional primary closure. DESIGN: This study was a parallel prospective multicenter randomized controlled trial. SETTINGS: This study was conducted at 2 university medical centers. PATIENTS: Patients (N = 122) presenting for elective colostomy or ileostomy reversal were selected. INTERVENTIONS: Pursestring versus conventional primary closure of stoma sites were compared. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Stoma site surgical site infection within 30 days of surgery, overall surgical site infection, delayed healing (open wound for >30 days), time to wound epithelialization, and patient satisfaction were the primary outcomes measured. RESULTS: The pursestring group had a significantly lower stoma site infection rate (2% vs 15%, p = 0.01). There was no difference in delayed healing or patient satisfaction between groups. Time to epithelialization was measured in only 51 patients but was significantly longer in the pursestring group (34.6 ± 20 days vs 24.1 ± 17 days, p = 0.02). LIMITATIONS: This study was limited by the variability in procedures and surgeons, the limited follow-up after 30 days, and the inability to perform blinding. CONCLUSION: Pursestring closure after stoma reversal has a lower risk of stoma site surgical site infection than conventional primary closure, although wounds may take longer to heal with the use of this approach. REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01713452 (www.clinicaltrials.gov).

Nitric oxide synthase activity and endogenous inhibitors in rats recovered from allergic encephalomyelitis

We have previously reported that in comparison with normal rats, the presence of experimental allergic encephalomyelitis (EAE) leads to decreased endogenous inhibitory activity (EIA) of Ca2+-dependent nitric oxide synthase (NOS) in both brain and serum, and increased expression of protein 3-nitrotyrosine (NT) in brain. In this work we show that animals recovered from the clinical signs of EAE are not different from controls in terms of either brain NOS activity, EIA of NOS, or NT expression. These results suggest that parallel to the reversal of the disease symptoms, a normalization of the production of nitric oxide and related species occurs.

The pathogenesis of diabetic complications: the role of DNA injury and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase activation in peroxynitrite-mediated cytotoxicity

Recent work has demonstrated that hyperglycemia-induced overproduction of superoxide by the mitochondrial electron-transport chain triggers several pathways of injury [(protein kinase C (PKC), hexosamine and polyol pathway fluxes, advanced glycation end product formation (AGE)] involved in the pathogenesis of diabetic complications by inhibiting glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH) activity. Increased oxidative and nitrosative stress activates the nuclear enzyme, poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase-1 (PARP). PARP activation, on one hand, depletes its substrate, NAD+, slowing the rate of glycolysis, electron transport and ATP formation. On the other hand, PARP activation results in inhibition of GAPDH by poly-ADP-ribosylation. These processes result in acute endothelial dysfunction in diabetic blood vessels, which importantly contributes to the development of various diabetic complications. Accordingly, hyperglycemia-induced activation of PKC and AGE formation are prevented by inhibition of PARP activity. Furthermore, inhibition of PARP protects against diabetic cardiovascular dysfunction in rodent models of cardiomyopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy, and retinopathy. PARP activation is also present in microvasculature of human diabetic subjects. The present review focuses on the role of PARP in diabetic complications and emphasizes the therapeutic potential of PARP inhibition in the prevention or reversal of diabetic complications.

Enhancement of the antimalarial efficacy of amodiaquine by chlorpheniramine in vivo

Resistance in Plasmodium falciparum to amodiaquine (AQ) can be reversed in vitro with with antihistaminic and tricyclic antidepressant compounds, but its significance in vivo is unclear. The present report presents the enhancement of the antimalarial efficacy of AQ by chlorpheniramine, an H1 receptor antagonist that reverses chloroquine (CQ) resistance in vitro and enhances its efficacy in vivo, in five children who failed CQ and/or AQ treatment, and who were subsequently retreated and cured with a combination of AQ plus CP, despite the fact that parasites infecting the children harboured mutant pfcrtT76 and pfmdr1Y86 alleles associated with AQ resistance. This suggests a potential clinical appliation of the reversal phenomenon.

Introduction of Trojan sex chromosomes to boost population growth.

Conservation programs that deal with small or declining populations often aim at a rapid increase of population size to above-critical levels in order to avoid the negative effects of demographic stochasticity and genetic problems like inbreeding depression, fixation of deleterious alleles, or a general loss of genetic variability and hence of evolutionary potential. In some situations, population growth is determined by the number of females available for reproduction, and manipulation of family sex ratios towards more daughters has beneficial effects. If sex determination is predominantly genetic but environmentally reversible, as is the case in many amphibia, reptiles, and fish, Trojan sex chromosomes could be introduced into populations in order to change sex ratios towards more females. We analyse the possible consequences for the introduction of XX-males (XX individuals that have been changed to phenotypic males in a XY/XX sex determination system) and ZW males, WW males, or WW females (in a ZZ/ZW sex determination system). We find that the introduction of WW individuals can be most effective for an increase of population growth, especially if the induced sex change has little or no effect on viability.

Infección por virus pandémico (H1N1) 2009 en Andalucía

In April 2009, in response to the WHO's alert due to the existence of human infection cases with a new AH1N1 influenza virus, known as swine flu, Andalusian Health Authorities trigger an specific action plan. The surveillance actions developped provided us with appropriate clinical, epidemiological and virological characteristics of the disease. During the first few days, contingency plans were set up based on epidemiological surveillance and outbreak control measures were adopted through early alert and rapid response systems. After phase 6 was declared, influenza sentinel and severe cases surveillance were used in order to plan healthcare services, to reduce transmission and to identify and protect the most vulnerable population groups. Behaviour of pandemic influenza in Andalusia was similar to that observed in the rest of the world. Atack rate was similar to a seasonal flu and the peak was reached at the 46th/2009 week. Most of them were mild cases and affected particularly to young people. The average age of hospitalised patients was 32. Prior pulmonary disease, smoking and morbid obesity (BMI>40) were the most common pathologies and risk factors in severe cases. An impact scenario of pandemic wave in Andalusia, with an expected attack rate from 2 to 5%, was prepared considering watt observed in the southern hemisphere. Characteristics of the epidemic concerning its extent, severity and mortality rate were adjusted to this scenario.

Remodeling of DNA replication structures by the branch point translocase FANCM

Fanconi anemia (FA) is a genetically heterogeneous chromosome instability syndrome associated with congenital abnormalities, bone marrow failure, and cancer predisposition. Eight FA proteins form a nuclear core complex, which promotes tolerance of DNA lesions in S phase, but the underlying mechanisms are still elusive. We reported recently that the FA core complex protein FANCM can translocate Holliday junctions. Here we show that FANCM promotes reversal of model replication forks via concerted displacement and annealing of the nascent and parental DNA strands. Fork reversal by FANCM also occurs when the lagging strand template is partially single-stranded and bound by RPA. The combined fork reversal and branch migration activities of FANCM lead to extensive regression of model replication forks. These observations provide evidence that FANCM can remodel replication fork structures and suggest a mechanism by which FANCM could promote DNA damage tolerance in S phase

Comparing correspondence analysis and the log-ratio alternative for representing categorical data

We compare correspondance análisis to the logratio approach based on compositional data. We also compare correspondance análisis and an alternative approach using Hellinger distance, for representing categorical data in a contingency table. We propose a coefficient which globally measures the similarity between these approaches. This coefficient can be decomposed into several components, one component for each principal dimension, indicating the contribution of the dimensions to the difference between the two representations. These three methods of representation can produce quite similar results. One illustrative example is given