Models of speech synthesis.

The term "speech synthesis" has been used for diverse technical approaches. In this paper, some of the approaches used to generate synthetic speech in a text-to-speech system are reviewed, and some of the basic motivations for choosing one method over another are discussed. It is important to keep in mind, however, that speech synthesis models are needed not just for speech generation but to help us understand how speech is created, or even how articulation can explain language structure. General issues such as the synthesis of different voices, accents, and multiple languages are discussed as special challenges facing the speech synthesis community.

Receptive field structure in the visual cortex: does selective stimulation induce plasticity?

Sensory areas of adult cerebral cortex can reorganize in response to long-term alterations in patterns of afferent signals. This long-term plasticity is thought to play a crucial role in recovery from injury and in some forms of learning. However, the degree to which sensory representations in primary cortical areas depend on short-term (i.e., minute to minute) stimulus variations remains unclear. A traditional view is that each neuron in the mature cortex has a fixed receptive field structure. An alternative view, with fundamentally different implications for understanding cortical function, is that each cell's receptive field is highly malleable, changing according to the recent history of the sensory environment. Consistent with the latter view, it has been reported that selective stimulation of regions surrounding the receptive field induces a dramatic short-term increase in receptive field size for neurons in the visual cortex [Pettet, M. W. & Gilbert, C. D. (1992) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 89, 8366-8370]. In contrast, we report here that there is no change in either the size or the internal structure of the receptive field following several minutes of surround stimulation. However, for some cells, overall responsiveness increases. These results suggest that dynamic alterations of receptive field structure do not underlie short-term plasticity in the mature primary visual cortex. However, some degree of short-term adaptability could be mediated by changes in responsiveness.

Is water structure around hydrophobic groups clathrate-like?

The term "clathrate structure" is quantified for solvation of nonpolar groups by enumerating hydrogen-bonded ring sizes both in the solvation shell and through the shell-bulk interface and comparing it to a bulk control using the ST4 water model. For clathrate-like structure to be evident, the distributions along the hydrophobic surface are expected to be dominated by pentagons, with significant depletion of hexagons and larger polygons. While the distribution in this region is indeed distinguished by a large number of pentagons, there are significant contributions from hexagons and larger rings as well. Calculated polygon distributions through the shell-bulk interface indicate that when water structure is highly cooperative along the hydrophobic surface, hydrogen-bonded pathways leading back into bulk are then reduced. These results are qualitatively consistent with the observation that hydrophobicity is proportional to the nonpolar solute surface area.

The CuA center of cytochrome-c oxidase: electronic structure and spectra of models compared to the properties of CuA domains.

The electronic structure and spectrum of several models of the binuclear metal site in soluble CuA domains of cytochrome-c oxidase have been calculated by the use of an extended version of the complete neglect of differential overlap/spectroscopic method. The experimental spectra have two strong transitions of nearly equal intensity around 500 nm and a near-IR transition close to 800 nm. The model that best reproduces these features consists of a dimer of two blue (type 1) copper centers, in which each Cu atom replaces the missing imidazole on the other Cu atom. Thus, both Cu atoms have one cysteine sulfur atom and one imidazole nitrogen atom as ligands, and there are no bridging ligands but a direct Cu-Cu bond. According to the calculations, the two strong bands in the visible region originate from exciton coupling of the dipoles of the two copper monomers, and the near-IR band is a charge-transfer transition between the two Cu atoms. The known amino acid sequence has been used to construct a molecular model of the CuA site by the use of a template and energy minimization. In this model, the two ligand cysteine residues are in one turn of an alpha-helix, whereas one ligand histidine is in a loop following this helix and the other one is in a beta-strand.

VAR models and methods for monetary and health economics

Negli ultimi anni i modelli VAR sono diventati il principale strumento econometrico per verificare se può esistere una relazione tra le variabili e per valutare gli effetti delle politiche economiche. Questa tesi studia tre diversi approcci di identificazione a partire dai modelli VAR in forma ridotta (tra cui periodo di campionamento, set di variabili endogene, termini deterministici). Usiamo nel caso di modelli VAR il test di Causalità di Granger per verificare la capacità di una variabile di prevedere un altra, nel caso di cointegrazione usiamo modelli VECM per stimare congiuntamente i coefficienti di lungo periodo ed i coefficienti di breve periodo e nel caso di piccoli set di dati e problemi di overfitting usiamo modelli VAR bayesiani con funzioni di risposta di impulso e decomposizione della varianza, per analizzare l'effetto degli shock sulle variabili macroeconomiche. A tale scopo, gli studi empirici sono effettuati utilizzando serie storiche di dati specifici e formulando diverse ipotesi. Sono stati utilizzati tre modelli VAR: in primis per studiare le decisioni di politica monetaria e discriminare tra le varie teorie post-keynesiane sulla politica monetaria ed in particolare sulla cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015) e regola del GDP nominale in Area Euro (paper 1); secondo per estendere l'evidenza dell'ipotesi di endogeneità della moneta valutando gli effetti della cartolarizzazione delle banche sul meccanismo di trasmissione della politica monetaria negli Stati Uniti (paper 2); terzo per valutare gli effetti dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria in Italia in termini di implicazioni di politiche economiche (paper 3). La tesi è introdotta dal capitolo 1 in cui si delinea il contesto, la motivazione e lo scopo di questa ricerca, mentre la struttura e la sintesi, così come i principali risultati, sono descritti nei rimanenti capitoli. Nel capitolo 2 sono esaminati, utilizzando un modello VAR in differenze prime con dati trimestrali della zona Euro, se le decisioni in materia di politica monetaria possono essere interpretate in termini di una "regola di politica monetaria", con specifico riferimento alla cosiddetta "nominal GDP targeting rule" (McCallum 1988 Hall e Mankiw 1994; Woodford 2012). I risultati evidenziano una relazione causale che va dallo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo alle variazioni dei tassi di interesse di mercato a tre mesi. La stessa analisi non sembra confermare l'esistenza di una relazione causale significativa inversa dalla variazione del tasso di interesse di mercato allo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo. Risultati simili sono stati ottenuti sostituendo il tasso di interesse di mercato con il tasso di interesse di rifinanziamento della BCE. Questa conferma di una sola delle due direzioni di causalità non supporta un'interpretazione della politica monetaria basata sulla nominal GDP targeting rule e dà adito a dubbi in termini più generali per l'applicabilità della regola di Taylor e tutte le regole convenzionali della politica monetaria per il caso in questione. I risultati appaiono invece essere più in linea con altri approcci possibili, come quelli basati su alcune analisi post-keynesiane e marxiste della teoria monetaria e più in particolare la cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015). Queste linee di ricerca contestano la tesi semplicistica che l'ambito della politica monetaria consiste nella stabilizzazione dell'inflazione, del PIL reale o del reddito nominale intorno ad un livello "naturale equilibrio". Piuttosto, essi suggeriscono che le banche centrali in realtà seguono uno scopo più complesso, che è il regolamento del sistema finanziario, con particolare riferimento ai rapporti tra creditori e debitori e la relativa solvibilità delle unità economiche. Il capitolo 3 analizza l’offerta di prestiti considerando l’endogeneità della moneta derivante dall'attività di cartolarizzazione delle banche nel corso del periodo 1999-2012. Anche se gran parte della letteratura indaga sulla endogenità dell'offerta di moneta, questo approccio è stato adottato raramente per indagare la endogeneità della moneta nel breve e lungo termine con uno studio degli Stati Uniti durante le due crisi principali: scoppio della bolla dot-com (1998-1999) e la crisi dei mutui sub-prime (2008-2009). In particolare, si considerano gli effetti dell'innovazione finanziaria sul canale dei prestiti utilizzando la serie dei prestiti aggiustata per la cartolarizzazione al fine di verificare se il sistema bancario americano è stimolato a ricercare fonti più economiche di finanziamento come la cartolarizzazione, in caso di politica monetaria restrittiva (Altunbas et al., 2009). L'analisi si basa sull'aggregato monetario M1 ed M2. Utilizzando modelli VECM, esaminiamo una relazione di lungo periodo tra le variabili in livello e valutiamo gli effetti dell’offerta di moneta analizzando quanto la politica monetaria influisce sulle deviazioni di breve periodo dalla relazione di lungo periodo. I risultati mostrano che la cartolarizzazione influenza l'impatto dei prestiti su M1 ed M2. Ciò implica che l'offerta di moneta è endogena confermando l'approccio strutturalista ed evidenziando che gli agenti economici sono motivati ad aumentare la cartolarizzazione per una preventiva copertura contro shock di politica monetaria. Il capitolo 4 indaga il rapporto tra spesa pro capite sanitaria, PIL pro capite, indice di vecchiaia ed aspettativa di vita in Italia nel periodo 1990-2013, utilizzando i modelli VAR bayesiani e dati annuali estratti dalla banca dati OCSE ed Eurostat. Le funzioni di risposta d'impulso e la scomposizione della varianza evidenziano una relazione positiva: dal PIL pro capite alla spesa pro capite sanitaria, dalla speranza di vita alla spesa sanitaria, e dall'indice di invecchiamento alla spesa pro capite sanitaria. L'impatto dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria è più significativo rispetto alle altre variabili. Nel complesso, i nostri risultati suggeriscono che le disabilità strettamente connesse all'invecchiamento possono essere il driver principale della spesa sanitaria nel breve-medio periodo. Una buona gestione della sanità contribuisce a migliorare il benessere del paziente, senza aumentare la spesa sanitaria totale. Tuttavia, le politiche che migliorano lo stato di salute delle persone anziane potrebbe essere necessarie per una più bassa domanda pro capite dei servizi sanitari e sociali.

Pulsar timing irregularities and the imprint of magnetic field evolution

Context. The rotational evolution of isolated neutron stars is dominated by the magnetic field anchored to the solid crust of the star. Assuming that the core field evolves on much longer timescales, the crustal field evolves mainly though Ohmic dissipation and the Hall drift, and it may be subject to relatively rapid changes with remarkable effects on the observed timing properties. Aims. We investigate whether changes of the magnetic field structure and strength during the star evolution may have observable consequences in the braking index n. This is the most sensitive quantity to reflect small variations of the timing properties that are caused by magnetic field rearrangements. Methods. We performed axisymmetric, long-term simulations of the magneto-thermal evolution of neutron stars with state-of-the-art microphysical inputs to calculate the evolution of the braking index. Relatively rapid magnetic field modifications can be expected only in the crust of neutron stars, where we focus our study. Results. We find that the effect of the magnetic field evolution on the braking index can be divided into three qualitatively different stages depending on the age and the internal temperature: a first stage that may be different for standard pulsars (with n ~ 3) or low field neutron stars that accreted fallback matter during the supernova explosion (systematically n < 3); in a second stage, the evolution is governed by almost pure Ohmic field decay, and a braking index n > 3 is expected; in the third stage, at late times, when the interior temperature has dropped to very low values, Hall oscillatory modes in the neutron star crust result in braking indices of a high absolute value and both positive and negative signs. Conclusions. Current magneto-thermal evolution models predict a large contribution to the timing noise and, in particular, to the braking index, from temporal variations of the magnetic field. Models with strong (≳ 1014 G) multipolar or toroidal components, even with a weak (~1012 G) dipolar field are consistent with the observed trend of the timing properties.

Unifying the observational diversity of isolated neutron stars via magneto-thermal evolution models

Observations of magnetars and some of the high magnetic field pulsars have shown that their thermal luminosity is systematically higher than that of classical radio-pulsars, thus confirming the idea that magnetic fields are involved in their X-ray emission. Here we present the results of 2D simulations of the fully coupled evolution of temperature and magnetic field in neutron stars, including the state-of-the-art kinetic coefficients and, for the first time, the important effect of the Hall term. After gathering and thoroughly re-analysing in a consistent way all the best available data on isolated, thermally emitting neutron stars, we compare our theoretical models to a data sample of 40 sources. We find that our evolutionary models can explain the phenomenological diversity of magnetars, high-B radio-pulsars, and isolated nearby neutron stars by only varying their initial magnetic field, mass and envelope composition. Nearly all sources appear to follow the expectations of the standard theoretical models. Finally, we discuss the expected outburst rates and the evolutionary links between different classes. Our results constitute a major step towards the grand unification of the isolated neutron star zoo.

Lung structure at preterm and term birth

When lung development is not interrupted by premature birth and unaffected by genetic or environmental disturbances, all components develop with complex control to form a functional organ with a predictable timeline during fetal development. In this chapter we describe the relationship between morphological development and function in both physiological and pathological conditions in human lung development. Tree-like growth of the lung begins during the first few weeks postconception, with the embryonic stage characterized by branching morphogenesis in both the airways and blood vessels, separately in the left and right lung buds, which appear near day 26 postcoitus (p.c.). Branching continues through the embryonic stage, with proliferation of mesenchymal and epithelial cells and apoptosis near branch points and in the areas of new formation. The pseudoglandular stage (weeks 5–17 p.c.) is characterized by accelerated cellular proliferation and airway and vascular branching, with epithelial differentiation in proximal and distal airways. Further epithelial differentiation, angiogenesis of the parenchymal capillary network, and the first formation of the air–blood barrier characterize the canalicular stage (16–26 weeks p.c.), just before the completion of branching morphogenesis (saccular stage, weeks 24–38 p.c.) and the start of alveolarization (week 36 through adolescence).

Long-term in vivo biostability of poly(dimethylsiloxane) / poly(hexamethylene oxide) mixed macrodiol-based polyurethane elastomers

The long-term biostability of a novel thermoplastic polyurethane elastomer (Elast-Eon(TM) 2 80A) synthesized using poly(hexamethylene oxide) (PHMO) and poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) macrodiols has been studied using an in vivo ovine model. The material's biostability was compared with that of three commercially available control materials, Pellethane(R) 2363-80A, Pellethane(R) 2363-55D and Bionate(R) 55D, after subcutaneous implantation of strained compression moulded flat sheet dumbbells in sheep for periods ranging from 3 to 24 months. Scanning electron microscopy, attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy were used to assess changes in the surface chemical structure and morphology of the materials. Gel permeation chromatography, differential scanning calorimetry and tensile testing were used to examine changes in bulk characteristics of the materials. The results showed that the biostability of the soft flexible PDMS-based test polyurethane was significantly better than the control material of similar softness, Pellethane(R) 80A, and as good as or better than both of the harder commercially available negative control polyurethanes. Pellethane(R) 55D and Bionate(R) 55D. Changes observed in the surface of the Pellethane(R) materials were consistent with oxidation of the aliphatic polyether soft segment and hydrolysis of the urethane bonds joining hard to soft segment with degradation in Pellethane(R) 80A significantly more severe than that observed in Pellethane(R) 55D. Very minor changes were seen on the surfaces of the Elast-Eon(TM) 2 80A and Bionate(R) 55D materials. There was a general trend of molecular weight decreasing with time across all polymers and the molecular weights of all materials decreased at a similar relative rate. The polydispersity ratio, M-w/M-n, increased with time for all materials. Tensile tests indicated that UTS increased in Elast-Eon(TM) 2 80A and Bionate(R) 55D following implantation under strained conditions. However, ultimate strain decreased and elastic modulus increased in the explanted specimens of all three materials when compared with their unimplanted unstrained counterparts. The results indicate that a soft, flexible PDMS-based polyurethane synthesized using 20% PHMO and 80% PDMS macrodiols has excellent long-term biostability compared with commercially available polyurethanes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On dendrites in Down syndrome and DS murine models: a spiny way to learn

Since the discovery in the 1970s that dendritic abnormalities in cortical pyramidal neurons are the most consistent pathologic correlate of mental retardation, research has focused on how dendritic alterations are related to reduced intellectual ability. Due in part to obvious ethical problems and in part to the lack of fruitful methods to study neuronal circuitry in the human cortex, there is little data about the microanatomical contribution to mental retardation. The recent identification of the genetic bases of some mental retardation associated alterations, coupled with the technology to create transgenic animal models and the introduction of powerful sophisticated tools in the field of microanatomy, has led to a growth in the studies of the alterations of pyramidal cell morphology in these disorders. Studies of individuals with Down syndrome, the most frequent genetic disorder leading to mental retardation, allow the analysis of the relationships between cognition, genotype and brain microanatomy. In Down syndrome the crucial question is to define the mechanisms by which an excess of normal gene products, in interaction with the environment, directs and constrains neural maturation, and how this abnormal development translates into cognition and behaviour. In the present article we discuss mainly Down syndrome-associated dendritic abnormalities and plasticity and the role of animal models in these studies. We believe that through the further development of such approaches, the study of the microanatomical substrates of mental retardation will contribute significantly to our understanding of the mechanisms underlying human brain disorders associated with mental retardation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in four Australian cities

Objective: To examine the short-term health effects of air pollution on daily mortality in four Australian cities (Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney), where more than 50% of Australians reside. Methods: The study used a similar protocol to APHEA2 (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach) study and derived single-city and pooled estimates. Results: The results derived from the different approaches for the 1996-99 period showed consistent results for different statistical models used. There were significant effects on total mortality, (RR=1.0284 per 1 unit increase in nelphelometry [10(-4).m(-1)], RR=1.0011 per 1ppb increase in NO2), and on respiratory mortality (RR=1.0022 per 1ppb increase in O-2). No significant differences between cities were found, but the NO2 and particle effects may refer to the same impacts. Meta-analyses carried out for three cities yielded estimates for the increase in the daily total number of deaths of 0.2% (-0.8% to 1.2%) for a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM, concentration, and 0.9% (-0.7% to 2.5%) for a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM2.5 concentration. Conclusions: Air pollutants in Australian cities have significant effects on mortality.

On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments

Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factor structure of the Mood and Anxiety Symptom Questionnaire does not generalize to an anxious/depressed sample

Objective: The tripartite model of anxiety and depression has been proposed as a representation of the structure of anxiety and depression symptoms. The Mood and Anxiety Symptom Questionnaire (MASQ) has been put forwards as a valid measure of the tripartite model of anxiety and depression symptoms. This research set out to examine the factor structure of anxiety and depression symptoms in a clinical sample to assess the MASQ's validity for use in this population. MethodsThe present study uses confirmatory factor analytic methods to examine the psychometric properties of the MASQ in 470 outpatients with anxiety and mood disorder. Results: The results showed that none of the previously reported two-factor, three-factor or five-factor models adequately fit the data, irrespective of whether items or subscales were used as the unit of analysis. Conclusions: It was concluded that the factor structure of the MASQ in a mixed anxiety/depression clinical sample does not support a structure consistent with the tripartite model. This suggests that researchers using the MASQ with anxious/depressed individuals should be mindful of the instrument's psychometric limitations.

Models of adding relations to an organization structure of a complete K-ary tree

This paper proposes three models of adding relations to an organization structure which is a complete K-ary tree of height H: (i) a model of adding an edge between two nodes with the same depth N, (ii) a model of adding edges between every pair of nodes with the same depth N and (iii) a model of adding edges between every pair of siblings with the same depth N. For each of the three models, an optimal depth N* is obtained by maximizing the total shortening path length which is the sum of shortening lengths of shortest paths between every pair of all nodes. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of protein continuum secondary structure with probabilistic models based on NMR solved structures

Background: The structure of proteins may change as a result of the inherent flexibility of some protein regions. We develop and explore probabilistic machine learning methods for predicting a continuum secondary structure, i.e. assigning probabilities to the conformational states of a residue. We train our methods using data derived from high-quality NMR models. Results: Several probabilistic models not only successfully estimate the continuum secondary structure, but also provide a categorical output on par with models directly trained on categorical data. Importantly, models trained on the continuum secondary structure are also better than their categorical counterparts at identifying the conformational state for structurally ambivalent residues. Conclusion: Cascaded probabilistic neural networks trained on the continuum secondary structure exhibit better accuracy in structurally ambivalent regions of proteins, while sustaining an overall classification accuracy on par with standard, categorical prediction methods.