Revisiting the determinants of unit values

This paper studies the issue of how traded quantities affect trade prices, which has been relatively unexplored in the trade literature. By reproducing previous literatures' regressions which are based on the general equilibrium trade theories, incorporating the role of traded quantities, this paper shows a possibility of prevalence of the second degree price discrimination (quantity discount) in international trade, rather than the pricing behaviour of the general equilibrium theories.

Quasi-experimental evidence on the drivers of index-based livestock insurance demand in Southern Ethiopia

Microinsurance is widely considered an important tool for sustainable poverty reduction, especially in the face of increasing climate risk. Although index-based microinsurance, which should be free from the classical incentive problems, has attracted considerable attention, uptake rates have generally been weak in low-income rural communities. We explore the purchase patterns of index-based livestock insurance in southern Ethiopia, focusing in particular on the role of accurate product comprehension and price, including the prospective impact of temporary discount coupons on subsequent period demand due to price anchoring effects. We find that randomly distributed learning kits contribute to improving subjects' knowledge of the products; however, we do not find strong evidence that the improved knowledge per se induces greater uptake. We also find that reduced price due to randomly distributed discount coupons has an immediate, positive impact on uptake, without dampening subsequent period demand due to reference-dependence associated with price anchoring effects.

革命後のイランにおける特権企業の生成と変貌 -- モスタズアファーン財団を事例に

It is a well-known and well-studied fact that after the 1979 revolution, Iran's economy went through a process of fundamental change and as a result a totally different economic system was established. Among the most remarkable changes was the emergence of so-called para-statal organizations, which were supervised by some institution within the state, while not being controlled by the government. Because of their politically strong position, they enjoy many privileges such as tax exemption or easy access to credit. Although deeply regarded as one of the most striking features of the postrevolution economic system, published studies about para-statal entities have been very limited so far. In this paper, I will focus on one of the biggest para-statal organizations, Mostaz`afan (Oppressed) Foundation. I will attempt to examine the historical and political background behind the formation and transformation of this conglomerate, its system of corporate governance, and its economic scale and scope over the past 35 years. Para-statal conglomerates together with state owned companies are going to be the two most important pillars of Iran's economy in the foreseeable future. Understanding their history will not only help us learn about the current economic system of Iran, but also give us some insight into the future of the economy, too.

A note on three factor model of discounting

In Montiel Olea and Strzalecki (2014), authors have axiomatically developed an algorithm to infer the parameters of beta-delta model of cognitive bias (present and future biases). While this is extremely useful, it allows the implied beta to become very large when the response is impatient in the future choices relative to present choices, i.e., when there is a strong future bias. I modify the model to further exponentiate the functional form to get more reasonable beta values.

Después de Einstein: una arquitectura para una teoría

En 1905, aparecen en la revista "Annalen der physik" tres artículos que revolucionarán las ciencias físicas y pondrán en jaque los asentados conceptos newtonianos de Espacio y Tiempo. La formulación de la Teoría de la Relatividad por Albert Einstein pone en crisis el valor absoluto de estos conceptos, y permite proponer nuevas reflexiones a propósito de su concepción dentro del campo de la física. Esta revolución ¿podría extrapolarse al campo de la arquitectura, donde Espacio y Tiempo tienen un papel protagonista? Hay que entender la complejidad del hecho arquitectónico y las innumerables variables que participan de su definición. Se estudia en esta Tesis Doctoral un aspecto muy concreto: cómo un paradigma (la Teoría de la Relatividad) puede intervenir y modificar, o no, la Arquitectura. Se plantea para ello ir al origen; desentrañar el momento de interacción entre la Teoría de la Relatividad y la Teoría de la Arquitectura, que permita determinar si aquella influyó sobre ésta en los escritos teóricos de las vanguardias aplicados a la Arquitectura. “Después de Einstein. Una arquitectura para una teoría” buscará los puntos de conexión de la Teoría de la Relatividad con la teoría arquitectónica de las vanguardias de principio del siglo XX, su influencia, la contaminación entre una y otra, con posibles resultados arquitectónicos a partir de esta interacción, capaz de definir nuevos argumentos formales para un nuevo lenguaje enArquitectura. Annalen der physik Después de Einstein. Una arquitectura para una teoría Para ello la Tesis se estructura en cuatro capítulos. El primero expone el ámbito geográfico y cronológico donde se desarrolla la Teoría de la Relatividad con la repercusión teórica que tiene para el arte, en función de una nueva definición de espacio vinculado al tiempo, como evento que se desarrolla en un ámbito cuatridimensional; la indeterminación de las medidas de espacio y de las medidas de tiempo, y la importancia de entender la materia como energía. El segundo capítulo estudia los movimientos de vanguardia coetáneos a la eclosión de la Relatividad, enmarcados en su ámbito geográfico más próximo. El cubismo se muestra como movimiento que participa ocasionalmente de las matemáticas y la geometría, bajo el influjo del científico Henri Poincaré y las geometrías no euclidianas. El futurismo indaga en los avances de la ciencia desde una cierta lejanía, cierta falta de rigor o profundidad científica para extraer las leyes de su nuevo idealismo plástico constructivo, definiendo e interpretando su Universo a partir de los avances de la ciencia, en respuesta a la crisis del espacio y del tiempo newtonianos. El lenguaje científico se encuentra presente en conceptos como "simultaneidad" (Boccioni), "expansión esférica de la luz en el espacio" (Severini y Carrá), "cuatridimensionalidad", "espacio-tiempo", "aire-luz-fuerza", "materia y energía" que paralelamente conforman el cuerpo operacional de la teoría de Einstein. Si bien no es posible atribuir a la Teoría de la Relatividad un papel protagonista como referente para el pensamiento artístico, en 1936, con la aparición del manifiesto Dimensionista, se atribuyen explícitamente a las teorías de Einstein las nuevas ideas de espacio-tiempo del espíritu europeo seguido por cubistas y futuristas. El tercer capítulo describe cómo la Teoría de la Relatividad llegó a ser fuente de inspiración para la Teoría de la Arquitectura. Estructurado en tres subcapítulos, se estudia el autor principal que aportó para la Arquitectura conceptos e ideas extrapoladas de la Teoría de la Relatividad después de su estudio e interpretación (Van Doesburg), dónde se produjeron las influencias y puntos de contacto (Lissitzky, Eggeling, Moholy-Nagy) y cómo fueron difundidas a través de la arquitectura (Einsteinturm de Mendelsohn) y de las revistas especializadas. El cuarto capítulo extrae las conclusiones del estudio realizado en esta Tesis, que bien pudiera resumir MoholyNagy en su texto "Vision inmotion" (1946) al comentar: "Ya que el "espacio-tiempo" puede ser un término engañoso, tiene que hacerse especialmente hincapié en que los problemas de espacio-tiempo en el arte no están necesariamente basados en la Teoría de la Relatividad de Einstein. Esto no tiene intención de descartar la relevancia de su teoría para las artes. Pero los artistas y los laicos rara vez tienen el conocimiento matemático para visualizar en fórmulas científicas las analogías con su propio trabajo. La terminología de Einstein del "espacio-tiempo" y la "relatividad" ha sido absorbida por nuestro lenguaje diario." ABSTRACT. "AFTER EINSTEIN:ANARCHITECTUREFORATHEORY." In 1905, three articles were published in the journal "Annalen der Physik ". They revolutionized physical sciences and threw into crisis the newtonian concepts of Space and Time. The formulation of the Theory of Relativity by Albert Einstein put a strain on the absolute value of these concepts, and proposed new reflections about them in the field of Physics. Could this revolution be extrapolated to the field of Architecture, where Space and Time have a main role? It is necessary to understand the complexity of architecture and the countless variables involved in its definition. For this reason, in this PhD. Thesis, we study a specific aspect: how a paradigm (Theory of Relativity) can intervene and modify -or not- Architecture. It is proposed to go back to the origin; to unravel the moment in which the interaction between the Theory of Relativity and the Theory of Architecture takes place, to determine whether the Theory of Relativity influenced on the theoretical avant-garde writings applied to Architecture. "After Einstein.An architecture for a theory " will search the connection points between the Theory of Relativity and architectural avant-garde theory of the early twentieth century, the influence and contamination between them, giving rise to new architectures that define new formal arguments for a new architectural language. Annalen der Physik This thesis is divided into four chapters. The first one describes the geographical and chronological scope in which the Theory of Relativity is developed showing its theoretical implications in the field of art, according to a new definition of Space linked to Time, as an event that takes place in a fourdimensional space; the indetermination of the measurement of space and time, and the importance of understanding "matter" as "energy". The second chapter examines the avant-garde movements contemporary to the theory of relativity. Cubism is shown as an artist movement that occasionally participates in mathematics and geometry, under the influence of Henri Poincaré and non-Euclidean geometries. Futurism explores the advances of science at a certain distance, with lack of scientific rigor to extract the laws of their new plastic constructive idealism. Scientific language is present in concepts like "simultaneity" (Boccioni), "expanding light in space" (Severini and Carra), "four-dimensional space", "space-time", "light-air-force," "matter and energy" similar to the operational concepts of Einstein´s theory. While it is not possible to attribute a leading role to the Theory of Relativity, as a benchmark for artistic laws, in 1936, with the publication of the Dimensionist manifest, the new ideas of space-time followed by cubist and futurist were attributed to the Einstein's theory. The third chapter describes how the Theory of Relativity became an inspiration for the architectural theory. Structured into three subsections, we study the main author who studied the theory of relativity and ,as a consequence, contributed with some concepts and ideas to the theory of architecture (Van Doesburg), where influences and contact points took place (Lissitzky, Eggeling, Moholy-Nagy) and how were disseminated throughArchitecture (Einsteinturm, by Mendelsohn) and journals. The fourth chapter draws the conclusions of this PhD. Thesis, which could be well summarized by Moholy Nagy in his text "Vision in Motion" (1946): vi Since "space-time" can be a misleading term, it especially has to be emphasized that the space-time problems in the arts are not necessarily based upon Einstein´s Theory of Relativity. This is not meant to discount the relevance of his theory to the arts. But artists and laymen seldom have the mathematical knowledge to visualize in scientific formulae the analogies to their own work. Einstein's terminology of "space-time" and "relativity" has been absorbed by our daily language.

Sustainability of irrigated farming systems in a Tunisian region: A recursive stochastic programming analysis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the sustainability of farm irrigation systems in the Cébalat district in northern Tunisia. It addressed the challenging topic of sustainable agriculture through a bio-economic approach linking a biophysical model to an economic optimisation model. A crop growth simulation model (CropSyst) was used to build a database to determine the relationships between agricultural practices, crop yields and environmental effects (salt accumulation in soil and leaching of nitrates) in a context of high climatic variability. The database was then fed into a recursive stochastic model set for a 10-year plan that allowed analysing the effects of cropping patterns on farm income, salt accumulation and nitrate leaching. We assumed that the long-term sustainability of soil productivity might be in conflict with farm profitability in the short-term. Assuming a discount rate of 10% (for the base scenario), the model closely reproduced the current system and allowed to predict the degradation of soil quality due to long-term salt accumulation. The results showed that there was more accumulation of salt in the soil for the base scenario than for the alternative scenario (discount rate of 0%). This result was induced by applying a higher quantity of water per hectare for the alternative as compared to a base scenario. The results also showed that nitrogen leaching is very low for the two discount rates and all climate scenarios. In conclusion, the results show that the difference in farm income between the alternative and base scenarios increases over time to attain 45% after 10 years.

Agaete revisited: new data on the Gran Canaria tsunamiites.

The tsunami deposits of the valley of Agaete (Pérez-Torrado et al., 2006), north-western Gran Canaria, attributed to the Guimar flank collapse in Tenerife, have been revisited and new data are presented here. Besides the occurrences reported by Pérez-Torrado et al. (2006) a new outcrop was found and named “La Ruina” (at 28º 05’ 47,41” N; 15º 41’ 52,04” W; 71 m asl). The above-mentioned authors suggested the possibility that more than one marine conglomerate deposit could be present in the outcrops of “Llanos de Turmán” and “Berrazales”. At “La Gasolinera” and “La Aldea 1” the conglomerates are formed by a single layer representing one depositional event; at “La Aldea 2”, the conglomerates are composed of two layers directly contacting with each other, but evidence of a time hiatus between them was not found. Although the hypothesis of stacking of two depositional units within the same episode versus deposition of two distinct layers in different time-moments is debatable at the present state of knowledge, the first possibility is favoured. The field evidence at “Llanos de Turman” and “Berrazales” unquestionably shows that terrestrial sediments (colluvia; paleosols) are present and separate two marine conglomerate deposits, indicating that at least two distinct tsunami inundations are needed to explain the stratigraphy. However, at the new “La Ruina” outcrop, besides the two deposits mentioned above, a third and older marine conglomerate was found, clearly separated in time from the ones cited above. The existence of marine conglomerates emplaced in different moments is evidenced by the occurrence of intercalated paleosols, colluvia and other subaerial materials, implying significant time intervals between the emplacement of marine conglomeratic layers. A number of gastropod operculae from the tsunamiites were sent for U-Th dating to try to further constrain the age span of these deposits. The field evidence presented above shows that the emplacement of the deposits is related to, at least, three tsunami events. The lateral correlation between different outcrops is difficult due to variable number of deposits in each outcrop, lateral discontinuity and variability, and to compositional and textural similarity between distinct tsunami sediments. The occurrence of three Pleistocene tsunami deposits in the same area points to a relatively high frequency of tsunamis (generated by landslides, surface rupturing earthquakes, fast entry of voluminous volcanic deposits into the sea or large submarine eruptions). It is possible that this recurrence of tsunami inundations may reflect multiple-phased landslides responsible for the mega-landslide scars prominent in the geomorphology of the neighbouring island of Tenerife. This is a contribution from project “Estabilidad de los edificios volcánicos en Canarias: análisis de los factores geológicos, geomecánicos y paleoclimáticos. Aplicación a los flancos N y S de la isla de Tenerife” financed by MCT, Spain.

A novel monetary incentive for commercial P2P streaming

Today P2P faces two important challenges: design of mechanisms to encourage users’ collaboration in multimedia live streaming services; design of reliable algorithms with QoS provision, to encourage multimedia providers employ the P2P topology in commercial streaming services. We believe that these two challenges are tightly-related and there is much to be done with respect. This paper proposes a novel monetary incentive for P2P multimedia streaming. The incentive model classifies the users in groups according to the perceived video quality. We apply the model to a streaming system’s billing model in order to evaluate its feasibility and visualize its quantitative effect on the users’ motivation and the provider’s profit. We conclude that monetary incentive can boost up users’ cooperation, loyalty and enhance the overall system integrity and performance. Moreover the model defines the constraints for the provider’s cost and profit when the system is leveraged on the cloud. Considering those constraints, a multimedia content provider can adapt the billing model of his streaming service and achieve desirable discount-profit trade-off. This will moreover contribute to better promotion of the service, across the users on the Internet.

Integration of congestion pricing and intertemporal preference rate in social welfare function

Assessing social benefits in transport policy implementation has been studied by many researchers using theoretical or empirical measures. However, few of them measure social benefit using different discount rates including the inter-temporal preferences rate of users, the private investment discount rate and the inter-temporal preferences rate of the government. In general, the social discount rate used is the same for all social actors. Therefore, this paper aims to assess a new method by integrating different types of discount rate belonging to different social actors in order to measure the real benefits of each actor in the short, medium and long term. A dynamic simulation is provided by a strategic Land-Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI) model. The method is tested by optimizing a cordon toll scheme in Madrid considering socio- economic efficiency and environmental criteria. Based on the modified social welfare function (WF), the effects on the measure of social benefits are estimated and compared with the classical WF results as well. The results of this research could be a key issue to understanding the relationship between transport system policies and social actors' benefits distribution in a metropolitan context. The results show that the use of more suitable discount rates for each social actor had an effect on the selection and definition of optimal strategy of congestion pricing. The usefulness of the measure of congestion toll declines more quickly overtime.

Integration of congestion pricing and intertemporal preferences rate integration in social welfare function

Many researchers have used theoretical or empirical measures to assess social benefits in transport policy implementation. However, few have measured social benefits by using discount rates, including the intertemporal preference rate of users, the private investment discount rate, and the intertemporal preference rate of the government. In general, the social discount rate used is the same for all social actors. This paper aims to assess a new method by integrating different types of discount rates belonging to different social actors to measure the real benefits of each actor in the short term, medium term, and long term. A dynamic simulation is provided by a strategic land use and transport interaction model. The method was tested by optimizing a cordon toll scheme in Madrid, Spain. Socioeconomic efficiency and environmental criteria were considered. On the basis of the modified social welfare function, the effects on the measure of social benefits were estimated and compared with the classical welfare function measures. The results show that the use of more suitable discount rates for each social actor had an effect on the selection and definition of optimal strategy of congestion pricing. The usefulness of the measure of congestion toll declines more quickly over time. This result could be the key to understanding the relationship between transport system policies and the distribution of social actors? benefits in a metropolitan context.

Empirical analysis of traffic volume for the application of the options theory to highway concessions

*************************************************************************************** EL WCTR es un Congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte que hasta el 2010 publicaba sus libros de abstracts con ISBN. Por ello consideramos que debería seguir teníendose en cuenta para los indicadores de calidad ******************************************************************************************* Investment projects in the field of transportation infrastructures have a high degree of uncertainty and require an important amount of resources. In highway concessions in particular, the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project by means of the discount of cash flows, may lead to erroneous results when the project incorporates certain flexibility. In these cases, the theory of real options is an alternative tool for the valuation of concessions. When the variable that generates uncertainty (in our case, the traffic) follows a random walk (or Geometric Brownian Motion), we can calculate the value of the options embedded in the contract starting directly from the process followed by that variable. This procedure notably simplifies the calculation method. In order to test the hypothesis of the evolution of traffic as a Geometric Brownian Motion, we have used the available series of traffic in Spanish highways, and we have applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller approach, which is the most widely used test for this kind of study. The main result of the analysis is that we cannot reject the hypothesis that traffic follows a Geometric Brownian Motion in the majority of both toll highways and free highways in Spain.

Considering cycling for commuting : the role of mode familiarity : an exploration on the (circular) relation between cycling behaviours and attitudes toward cycling in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain

¿La gente utiliza la bicicleta porque les gusta? ¿O es el propio hecho de usarla la razón por la que les gusta hacerlo? ¿O es una combinación de las dos? Este tipo de preguntas reflejan un problema que se puede llamar ‘el círculo de la consideración de la bicicleta’: para poder considerar el uso de la bicicleta en el conjunto de posibles opciones a escoger, un individuo tiene que tener creencias positivas sobre ella, sobre todo en el caso de ‘contextos de bajo uso’. Pero parece poco probable que se formen creencias positivas cuando hay bajos niveles de familiaridad al modo, es decir, con un bajo conocimiento de sus características, su funcionamiento y del imaginario asociado; al mismo tiempo, la familiaridad irá alcanzando niveles más altos conforme aumente el tiempo y la intensidad con la que se utilice la bicicleta a lo largo de la vida de los individuos. El problema parece un circulo recursivo huevo-gallina, ya que es difícil que alguien considere el usar la bicicleta en lugares donde su uso es una práctica poco extendida. En estos lugares, y dentro del conglomerado actual de tecnologías, infraestructuras, reglas, prácticas de los usuarios y preferencias culturales que se han desarrollado alrededor del automóvil (el actual "sistema socio-técnico de la movilidad urbana", Urry 2004; Geels 2005, 2012) usar la bicicleta es considerado por la mayoría como algo difícil, inseguro, y anormal. Como consecuencia, los procesos de aumento de familiaridad con la bicicleta permanecen inactivos. La tesis asume la familiaridad como una fuente de información e influencia sobre las creencias positivas sobre la bicicleta. En ‘contextos de bajo uso’, sin familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta, estas creencias sólo pueden surgir de ciertos rasgos personales (afecto, valores, identidades, voluntad, etc.). Tal como han evidenciado investigaciones recientes, en estos contextos la posibilidad de considerar el uso de la bicicleta (y su eventual adopción), se circunscribe principalmente a los ‘entusiastas’, a los que están dispuestos a “ir contra corriente” (Horton & Parkin 2012), limitando el alcance de las políticas de promoción. La investigación llevada a cabo en esta tesis ofrece un nuevo enfoque al problema del ‘círculo de la consideración de la bicicleta’. Para ello, plantea un modelo en el que se introduce a la familiaridad como un constructo que media entre el comportamiento final –qué modo de transporte elige el individuo– y el conjunto de constructos psicosociales que preceden la elección modal (creencias y actitudes). La familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta se concibe como una medida de la intensidad relativa del uso de una bicicleta, real y percibida (basándose en Diana & Mokhtarian 2009) que puede formarse de manera distinta según sus fines (utilitarios o no utilitarios). El constructo familiaridad con el modo bicicleta está relacionado con la cantidad de tiempo, la intensidad y la regularidad con la que un individuo ha hecho uso de la bicicleta a lo largo de su vida. La familiaridad se concibe así como una condición que permite definir adecuadamente el contexto en el que se toman las decisiones modales de los individuos, en línea con investigaciones que postulan patrones de causalidad alternativos entre los procesos cognitivos de elección y los comportamientos modales (Tardif 1977; Dobson et al. 1978; Golob et al. 1979; Golob 2001; Schwanen et al. 2012; Diana et al. 2009; Vij & Walker 2014). De este modo se plantea que el esquema unidireccional actitudesconductas podría no ser completamente valido en el caso de la consideración de la bicicleta, explorando la hipótesis que sean las propias conductas a influenciar la formación de las actitudes. En esta tesis, el constructo de familiaridad se articula teórica y metodológicamente, y se emplea un instrumento de diseño transversal para contrastarlo. Los resultados de una encuesta telefónica a una muestra representativa de 736 personas en la ciudad española de Vitoria-Gasteiz proveen evidencias que sugieren –aunque de forma preliminar– que la familiaridad juega un papel de mediadora en la relación entre la utilización de la bicicleta y la formación de las creencias y actitudes hacia el su uso. La tesis emplea mediciones para cada individuo con respecto tanto a su consideración como a su familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta. Éstas mediciones se definen haciendo uso del análisis factorial exploratorio (AFE). Por un lado, el AFE arroja una estructura del constructo ‘consideración’ formada por cuatro factores, tres de ellos asociados con elementos positivos y uno con elementos negativos: (1) de cómo el uso de la bicicleta se considera verde e inteligente (G&S); (2) sobre su carácter agradable y adecuado (P&S); (3) sobre su eficacia como modo de transporte para ir al trabajo (E); y (4) sobre los principales inconvenientes de su uso, es decir, las dificultades implícitas (sudoración y estar expuestos a las inclemencias del tiempo) y la sensación de inseguridad que genera (sentirse en riesgo de accidentes y estresarse por el tráfico) (D&T). Por otro lado, la familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta se mide en dos distintas variables ordinales (según se base en el uso utilitario o no utilitario). Como resultado, se puede hablar de que cada individuo se encuentra en una de las siguientes cuatro etapas en orden creciente hacia una familiaridad completa al modo: no familiarizados; apenas familiarizados; moderadamente familiarizados; totalmente familiarizados. El análisis de los datos de los cuatro grupos de sujetos de la muestra, –definidos de acuerdo con cada una de las cuatro etapas de familiaridad definidas– ha evidenciado la existencia de diferencias intergrupo estadísticamente significativas, especialmente para la medida relacionada con el uso utilitario. Asimismo, las personas en los niveles inferiores de familiaridad tienen una consideración menor de los aspectos positivos de la bicicleta y por el contrario presentan preocupaciones mayores hacia las características negativas respecto a aquellas personas que están más familiarizados en el uso utilitario. El uso, aunque esporádico, de una bicicleta para fines utilitarios (ir de compras, hacer recados, etc.), a diferencia de no usarla en absoluto, aparece asociado a unas puntuaciones significativamente más altas en los tres factores positivos (G&S, E, P&S), mientras que parece estar asociado a puntuaciones significativamente más bajas en el factor relacionado con las características negativas (D&U). Aparecen resultados similares cuando se compara un uso moderado, con uno esporádico, sobre todo con respecto a la consideración de las características negativas. Los resultados de esta tesis están en línea con la literatura anterior que se ha basado en variables similares (por ejemplo, de Geus et al. 2008; Stinson & Bhat 2003, 2004; Hunt & Abraham 2006; y van Bekkum et al. 2011a, entre otros), pero en este estudio las diferencias se observan en un contexto de bajo uso y se derivan de un análisis de toda la población de personas que se desplazan a su lugar de trabajo o estudio, lo cual eleva la fiabilidad de los resultados. La posibilidad de que unos niveles más altos de uso de la bicicleta para fines utilitarios puedan llevar a niveles más positivos de su consideración abre el camino a implicaciones teóricas y de políticas que se discuten en la tesis. Con estos resultados se argumenta que el enfoque convencional basado en el cambio de actitudes puede no ser el único y prioritario para lograr cambios a la hora de fomentar el uso de la bicicleta. Los resultados apuntan al potencial de otros esquemas de causalidad, basados en patrones de influencia más descentrados y distribuidos, y que adopten una mirada más positiva hacia los hábitos de transporte, conceptualizándolos como “inteligencia encarnada y pre-reflexiva” (Schwanen et al. 2012). Tales esquemas conducen a un enfoque más práctico para la promoción del uso de la bicicleta, con estrategias que podrían basarse en acciones de ‘degustación’ de su uso o de mayor ‘exposición’ a su uso. Is the fact that people like cycling the reason for them to cycle? Or is the fact that they do cycle the reason for them to like cycling? Or is a combination of the two? This kind of questions reflect a problem that can be called ‘the cycle of cycling consideration’: in order to consider cycling in the set of possible options to be chosen, an individual needs to have positive beliefs about it, especially in the case of ‘low-cycling contexts’. However, positive beliefs seem unlikely to be formed with low levels of mode familiarity, say, with a low acquaintance with mode features, functioning and images; at the same time, higher levels of familiarity are likely to be reached if cycling is practised over relative threshold levels of intensities and extensively across individual life courses. The problem looks like a chicken-egg recursive cycle, since the latter condition is hardly met in places where cycling is little practised. In fact, inside the current conglomerate of technologies, infrastructures, regulations, user practices, cultural preferences that have grown around the automobile (the current “socio-technical system of urban mobility”, Urry 2004; Geels 2005, 2012) cycling is commonly considered as difficult, unsafe, and abnormal. Consequently, the processes of familiarity forming remain disabled, and, as a result, beliefs cannot rely on mode familiarity as a source of information and influence. Without cycling familiarity, origins of positive beliefs are supposed to rely only on personal traits (affect, values, identities, willingness, etc.), which, in low-cycling contexts, confine the possibility of cycling consideration (and eventual adoption) mainly to ‘cycling enthusiasts’ who are willing to “go against the grain” (Horton & Parkin 2012), as it results from previous research. New research conducted by author provides theoretical insights for a different approach of the cycling consideration problem in which the presence of the new construct of cycling familiarity is hypothesised in the relationship between mode choice behaviour and the set of psychosocial constructs that are supposed to precede it (beliefs and attitudes). Cycling familiarity is conceived as a measure of the real and the perceived relative intensity of use of a bicycle (building upon Diana & Mokhtarian 2009) which may be differently formed for utilitarian or non-utilitarian purposes. The construct is assumed to be related to the amount of time, the intensity and the regularity an individual spends in using a bicycle for the two distinct categories of purposes, gaining in this way a certain level of acquaintance with the mode. Familiarity with a mode of transport is conceived as an enabling condition to properly define the decision-making context in which individual travel mode choices are taken, in line with rather disperse research efforts postulating inverse relationships between mode behaviours and mode choices (Tardiff 1977; Dobson et al. 1978; Golob et al. 1979; Golob 2001; Schwanen et al. 2012; Diana et al. 2009; Vij & Walker 2014). The new construct is built theoretically and methodologically, and a cross-sectional design instrument is employed. Results from a telephone survey in a representative sample of 736 commuters in the Spanish city of Vitoria-Gasteiz, provide suggestive –although preliminary– evidence on the role of mode familiarity as a mediator in the relationship between cycling use and the formation of beliefs and attitudes toward cycling. Measures of both cycling consideration and cycling familiarity are defined making use of exploratory factor analysis. On the one hand, four distinct cycling consideration measures are created, based on attitude expressions on four underlying factors relating to the cycling commuting behaviour: on how cycling commuting is considered green and smart (G&S); on its pleasant and suited character (P&S); on its efficiency as a mode of transport for commuting (E); and on the main drawbacks of its use, namely the difficulties implied (sweating and being exposed to adverse weather conditions) and the sense of unsafety it generates (feeling at risk of accidents and getting stressed by traffic) (D&U). On the other hand, dimensions of cycling familiarity are measured on two distinct ordinal variables (whether based on the utilitarian or non-utilitarian use) comprising four stages to a complete mode familiarity: not familiar; barely familiar; moderately familiar; fully familiar. For each of the four stages of cycling familiarity defined, statistical significant differences are found, especially for the measure related to the utilitarian use. Consistently, people at the lower levels of cycling familiarity have a lower consideration of the positive aspects of cycling and conversely they exhibit higher concerns towards the negative characteristics than those individuals that are more familiar in utilitarian cycling. Using a bicycle occasionally for practical purposes, as opposed to not using it at all, seems associated to significant higher scores in the three positive factors (G&S, E, P&S) while it appears to be associated to significant lower scores in the factor relating with the negative characteristics of cycling commuting (D&U). A same pattern also occurs with a moderate use, as opposed to an occasional one, especially for the consideration of the negative characteristics. The results are in line with previous literature based on similar variables (e.g. de Geus et al. 2008; Stinson & Bhat 2003, 2004; Hunt & Abraham 2006; and van Bekkum et al. 2011a, among others), but in this study the differences are observed in a low-cycling context and derive from an analysis of the entire population of commuters, which rises the reliability of results.

A Valuation of SAREB, the Spanish “Bad Bank”, Upside Using the Real Options Methodology

This paper develops a model to analyze the upside potential of profitability of the SAREB (“Asset Management Company for Assets Arising from Bank Restructuring”), the Spanish “Bad Bank”. The model is based in the Real Options methodology, that is especially adequate due to the convergence of two elements, (i) depreciated assets with a high upside potential, and (ii) a highly volatile market as it has shown to be the real estate Spanish market. Our results suggest that the SAREB has a higher than expected profitability potentialthat would be dedicated to increase the return to its shareholders, mainly private banks. Consequently we also show that after the financial crisis are emerging two types of banks in Spain, in one hand the losers who are transferring their real estate assets at a deep discount, and in the other hand the winners, capturing the upside potential of those assets as shareholders of SAREB, and consequently consolidating their strength in the Spanish Real Estate Industry. It is worth to mention that Governments should make an effort in properly redistribute the wealth generated by the real Estate industry.

Exploring users inter-temporal preferences for measuring transport social equity effects

There exist different ways for defining a welfare function. Traditionally, welfare economic theory foundation is based on the Net Present Value (NPV) calculation where the time dependent preferences of considered agents are taken into account. However, the time preferences, remains a controversial subject. Currently, the traditional approach employs a unique discount rate for various agents. Nevertheless, this way of discounting appears inconsistent with sustainable development. New research work suggests that the discount rate may not be a homogeneous value. The discount rates may change following the individual’s preferences. A significant body of evidence suggests that people do not behave following a constant discount rate. In fact, UK Government has quickly recognized the power of the arguments for time-varying rates, as it has done in its official guidance to Ministries on the appraisal of investments and policies. Other authors deal with not just time preference but with uncertainty about future income (precautionary saving). In a situation in which economic growth rates are similar across time periods, the rationale for declining social optimal discount rates is driven by the preferences of the individuals in the economy, rather than expectations of growth. However, these approaches have been mainly focused on long-term policies where intergenerational risks may appear. The traditional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) uses a unique discount rate derived from market interest rates or investment rates of return for discounting the costs and benefits of all social agents included in the CBA. However, recent literature showed that a more adequate measure of social benefit is possible by using different discount rates including inter-temporal preferences rate of users, private investment discount rate and intertemporal preferences rate of government. Actually, the costs of opportunity may differ amongst individuals, firms, governments, or society in general, as do the returns on savings. In general, the firms or operators require an investment rate linked to the current return on savings, while the discount rate of consumers-users depends on their time preferences with respect of the current and the future consumption, as well as society can take into account the intergenerational well-being, adopting a lower discount rate for today’s generation. Time discount rate of social actors (users, operators, government and society) places a lower value in a future gain, but the uncertainty about future income strongly determines the individual preferences. These time and uncertainty depends on preferences and should be integrated into a transport policy formulation that may have significant social impacts. The discount rate of a user cannot be the same than the operator’s discount rate. The preferences of both are different. In addition, another school of thought suggests that people, such as a social group, may have different attitudes towards future costs and benefits. Particularly, the users have different discount rates related to their income. Some research work tried to modify user discount rates using a compensating weight which represents the inverse of household income level. The inter-temporal preferences are a proxy of the willingness to pay during the time. Its consideration is important in order to make acceptable or not a policy or investment