Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

Brain activation during string playing

This chapter attempts to integrate data from both functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and electroencephalography (EEG) to elucidate the activation of the cortical areas in musical performance for both execution and imagination of music during string playing. In both fMRI and EEG experiments, playing the music was compared with imagining the music. This allowed separation of the areas mainly involved in motor execution from those involved in imagining, planning, and working memory, thus differentiating musical from purely motor areas.

LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF CONJUGACY RELATIONSHIPS IN LINEAR MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO HIGH-THROUGHPUT GENOMICS

In the simultaneous estimation of a large number of related quantities, multilevel models provide a formal mechanism for efficiently making use of the ensemble of information for deriving individual estimates. In this article we investigate the ability of the likelihood to identify the relationship between signal and noise in multilevel linear mixed models. Specifically, we consider the ability of the likelihood to diagnose conjugacy or independence between the signals and noises. Our work was motivated by the analysis of data from high-throughput experiments in genomics. The proposed model leads to a more flexible family. However, we further demonstrate that adequately capitalizing on the benefits of a well fitting fully-specified likelihood in the terms of gene ranking is difficult.

INTERACTING WITH LOCAL AND REMOTE DATA RESPOSITORIES USING THE stashR PACKAGE

The stashR package (a Set of Tools for Administering SHared Repositories) for R implements a simple key-value style database where character string keys are associated with data values. The key-value databases can be either stored locally on the user's computer or accessed remotely via the Internet. Methods specific to the stashR package allow users to share data repositories or access previously created remote data repositories. In particular, methods are available for the S4 classes localDB and remoteDB to insert, retrieve, or delete data from the database as well as to synchronize local copies of the data to the remote version of the database. Users efficiently access information from a remote database by retrieving only the data files indexed by user-specified keys and caching this data in a local copy of the remote database. The local and remote counterparts of the stashR package offer the potential to enhance reproducible research by allowing users of Sweave to cache their R computations for a research paper in a localDB database. This database can then be stored on the Internet as a remoteDB database. When readers of the research paper wish to reproduce the computations involved in creating a specific figure or calculating a specific numeric value, they can access the remoteDB database and obtain the R objects involved in the computation.

Heterotic T-folds with a small number of neutral moduli

We discuss non-geometric supersymmetric heterotic string models in D=4, in the framework of the free fermionic construction. We perform a systematic scan of models with four a priori left-right asymmetric Z2 projections and shifts. We analyze some 220 models, identifying 18 inequivalent classes and addressing variants generated by discrete torsions. They do not contain geometrical or trivial neutral moduli, apart from the dilaton. However, we show the existence of flat directions in the form of exactly marginal deformations and identify patterns of symmetry breaking where product gauge groups, realized at level one, are broken to their diagonal at higher level. We also describe an “inverse Gepner map” from Heterotic to Type II models that could be used, in certain non geometric settings, to define “effective” topological invariants.

An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Search for contact interactions and large extra dimensions in dilepton events from pp collisions at sqrts=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for nonresonant new phenomena, originating from either contact interactions or large extra spatial dimensions, has been carried out using events with two isolated electrons or muons. These events, produced at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at root s = 7 TeV, were recorded by the ATLAS detector. The data sample, collected throughout 2011, corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.9 and 5.0 fb(-1) in the e(+)e(-) and mu(+)mu(-) channels, respectively. No significant deviations from the Standard Model expectation are observed. Using a Bayesian approach, 95% confidence level lower limits ranging from 9.0 to 13.9 TeV are placed on the energy scale of llqq contact interactions in the left-left isoscalar model. Lower limits ranging from 2.4 to 3.9 TeV are also set on the string scale in large extra dimension models. After combining these limits with results from a similar search in the diphoton channel, slightly more stringent limits are obtained.

Search for contact interactions and large extra dimensions in the dilepton channel using proton-proton collisions at s√ = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is conducted for non-resonant new phenomena in dielectron and dimuon final states, originating from either contact interactions or large extra spatial dimensions. The LHC 2012 proton–proton collision dataset recorded by the ATLAS detector is used, corresponding to 20 fb−1 at √ s = 8 TeV. The dilepton invariant mass spectrum is a discriminating variable in both searches, with the contact interaction search additionally utilizing the dilepton forward-backward asymmetry. No significant deviations from the Standard Model expectation are observed. Lower limits are set on the ℓℓqq contact interaction scale ʌ between 15.4 TeVand 26.3 TeV, at the 95%credibility level. For large extra spatial dimensions, lower limits are set on the string scale MS between 3.2 TeV to 5.0 TeV.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

MSSM soft terms from supergravity with gauged R-symmetry in de Sitter vacuum

We work out the phenomenology of a model of supersymmetry breaking in the presence of a tiny (tunable) positive cosmological constant, proposed by the authors in arXiv:1403.1534. It utilizes a single chiral multiplet with a gauged shift symmetry that can be identified with the string dilaton (or an appropriate compactification modulus). The model is coupled to the MSSM, leading to calculable soft supersymmetry breaking masses and a distinct low energy phenomenology that allows to differentiate it from other models of supersymmetry breaking and mediation mechanisms.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

Hemodynamic changes associated with manual and automated lateral rotation in mechanically ventilated intensive care patients

Objective: To investigate hemodynamic responses to lateral rotation. ^ Design: Time-series within a randomized controlled trial pilot study. ^ Setting: A medical intensive care unit (ICU) and a medical-surgical ICU in two tertiary care hospitals. ^ Patients: Adult patients receiving mechanical ventilation. ^ Interventions: Two-hourly manual or continuous automated lateral rotation. ^ Measurements and Main Results: Heart rate (HR) and arterial pressure were sampled every 6 seconds for > 24 hours, and pulse pressure (PP) was computed. Turn data were obtained from a turning flow sheet (manual turn) or with an angle sensor (automated turn). Within-subject ensemble averages were computed for HR, mean arterial pressure (MAP), and PP across turns. Sixteen patients were randomized to either the manual (n = 8) or automated (n = 8) turn. Three patients did not complete the study due to hemodynamic instability, bed malfunction or extubation, leaving 13 patients (n = 6 manual turn and n = 7 automated turn) for analysis. Seven patients (54%) had an arterial line. Changes in hemodynamic variables were statistically significant increases ( p < .05), but few changes were clinically important, defined as ≥ 10 bpm (HR) or ≥ 10 mmHg (MAP and PP), and were observed only in the manual-turn group. All manual-turn patients had prolonged recovery to baseline in HR, MAP and PP of up to 45 minutes (p ≤ .05). No significant turning-related periodicities were found for HR, MAP, or PP. Cross-correlations between variables showed variable lead-lag relations in both groups. A statistically, but not clinically, significant increase in HR of 3 bpm was found for the manual-turn group in the back compared with the right lateral position ( F = 14.37, df = 1, 11, p = .003). ^ Conclusions: Mechanically ventilated critically ill patients experience modest hemodynamic changes with manual lateral rotation. A clinically inconsequential increase in HR, MAP, and PP may persist for up to 45 minutes. Automated lateral rotation has negligible hemodynamic effects. ^

Oxygen Reduction Reaction on Pt Overlayers Deposited onto a Gold Film: Ligand, Strain, and Ensemble Effect

We study the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR), the catalytic process occurring at the cathode in fuel cells, on Pt layers prepared by electrodeposition onto an Au substrate. Using a nominal Pt layer by layer deposition method previously proposed, imperfect layers of Pt on Au are obtained. The ORR on deposited Pt layers decreases with increasing Pt thickness. In the submonolayer region, however, the ORR activity is superior to that of bulk Pt. Using density functional theory (DFT) calculations, we correlate the observed activity trend to strain, ligand, and ensemble effects. At submonolayer coverage certain atom configurations weaken the binding energies of reaction intermediates due to a ligand and ensemble effect, thus effectively increasing the ORR activity. At higher Pt coverage the activity is governed by a strain effect, which lowers the activity by decreasing the oxidation potential of water. This study is a nice example of how the influence of strain, ligand, and ensemble effects on the ORR can be deconvoluted.

Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

Ensemble transcript interaction networks: A case study on Alzheimer's disease

Systems biology techniques are a topic of recent interest within the neurological field. Computational intelligence (CI) addresses this holistic perspective by means of consensus or ensemble techniques ultimately capable of uncovering new and relevant findings. In this paper, we propose the application of a CI approach based on ensemble Bayesian network classifiers and multivariate feature subset selection to induce probabilistic dependences that could match or unveil biological relationships. The research focuses on the analysis of high-throughput Alzheimer's disease (AD) transcript profiling. The analysis is conducted from two perspectives. First, we compare the expression profiles of hippocampus subregion entorhinal cortex (EC) samples of AD patients and controls. Second, we use the ensemble approach to study four types of samples: EC and dentate gyrus (DG) samples from both patients and controls. Results disclose transcript interaction networks with remarkable structures and genes not directly related to AD by previous studies. The ensemble is able to identify a variety of transcripts that play key roles in other neurological pathologies. Classical statistical assessment by means of non-parametric tests confirms the relevance of the majority of the transcripts. The ensemble approach pinpoints key metabolic mechanisms that could lead to new findings in the pathogenesis and development of AD