Compositional Bayesian modelling and its application to decision support in crime investigation

J. Keppens, Q. Shen and M. Lee. Compositional Bayesian modelling and its application to decision support in crime investigation. Proceedings of the 19th International Workshop on Qualitative Reasoning, pages 138-148.

Evolutionary approaches to fuzzy modelling for classification

M. Galea, Q. Shen and J. Levine. Evolutionary approaches to fuzzy modelling. Knowledge Engineering Review, 19(1):27-59, 2004.

Causality enabled compositional modelling of Bayesian networks

J. Keppens and Q. Shen. Causality enabled compositional modelling of Bayesian networks. Proceedings of the 18th International Workshop on Qualitative Reasoning, pages 33-40, 2004.

Subsethood-based fuzzy modelling and classification

K. Rasmani and Q. Shen. Subsethood-based fuzzy modelling and classification. Proceedings of the 2004 UK Workshop on Computational Intelligence, pages 181-188.

Modelling uncertainty in agricultural image analysis

C.M. Onyango, J.A. Marchant and R. Zwiggelaar, 'Modelling uncertainty in agricultural image analysis', Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 17 (3), 295-305 (1997)

Modelling random fuzzy renewal reward processes

Shen, Q., Zhao, R., Tang, W. (2008). Modelling random fuzzy renewal reward processes. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 16 (5),1379-1385

Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

The development of a computer model to optimize the performance of a 50kWp photovoltaic system

A computer model has been developed to optimize the performance of a 50kWp photovoltaic system which supplies electrical energy to a dairy farm at Fota Island in Cork Harbour. Optimization of the system involves maximising the efficiency and increasing the performance and reliability of each hardware unit. The model accepts horizontal insolation, ambient temperature, wind speed, wind direction and load demand as inputs. An optimization program uses the computer model to simulate the optimum operating conditions. From this analysis, criteria are established which are used to improve the photovoltaic system operation. This thesis describes the model concepts, the model implementation and the model verification procedures used during development. It also describes the techniques which are used during system optimization. The software, which is written in FORTRAN, is structured in modular units to provide logical and efficient programming. These modular units may also be used in the modelling and optimization of other photovoltaic systems.

The role of evacuation and fire modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process and aircraft fire have a role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementaion of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the cost and risk involved in performing large-scale fire/evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Very Large Aircraft' (VLA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. By describing the present capabililties and limitations of the EXODUS evacuation model and associated fire models, this paper will examine the future development and data requirements of these models.

The numerical modelling of multi-physics phenomena: The shape casting process

In this paper a computer simulation tool capable of modelling multi-physics processes in complex geometry has been developed and applied to the casting process. The quest for high-quality complex casting components demanded by the aerospace and automobile industries, requires more precise numerical modelling techniques and one that need to be generic and modular in its approach to modelling multi-processes problems. For such a computer model to be successful in shape casting, the complete casting process needs to be addressed, the major events being:-• Filling of hot liquid metal into a cavity mould • Solidification and latent heat evolution of liquid metal • Convection currents generated in liquid metal by thermal gradients • Deformation of cast and stress development in solidified metal • Macroscopic porosity formation The above phenomena combines the analysis of fluid flow, heat transfer, change of phase and thermal stress development. None of these events can be treated in isolation as they inexorably interact with each other in a complex way. Also conditions such as design of running system, location of feeders and chills, moulding materials and types of boundary conditions can all affect on the final cast quality and must be appropriately represented in the model.

PHYSICA - A software environment for the modelling of multi-physics phenomena

A brief description of a software environment in FORTRAN77 for the modelling of multi-physics phenomena is given. The numerical approach is based on finite volume methods but extended to unstructured meshes (ie. FV-UM). A range of interacting solution procedures for turbulent fluid flow, heat transfer with solidification/melting and elasto-visco-plastic solid mechanics are implemented in the first version of PHYSICA, which will be released in source code form to the academic community in late 1995.

A review of the methodologies used in the computer simulation of evacuation from the built environment

Computer based analysis of evacuation can be performed using one of three different approaches, namely optimisation, simulation or risk assessment. Furthermore, within each approach different means of representing the enclosure, the population, and the behaviour of the population are possible. The myriad of approaches which are available has led to the development of some 22 different evacuation models. This article attempts to describe each of the modelling approaches adopted and critically review the inherent capabilities of each approach. The review is based on available published literature.

The role of evacuation modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitation of the air-EXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certificaiton trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. Finally, the data requirements of aircraft evacuation models is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the University of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

Fire field modelling using the SMARTFIRE automated dynamic solution control environment

SMARTFIRE is a fire field model based on an open architecture integrated CFD code and knowledge-based system. It makes use of the expert system to assist the user in setting up the problem specification and new computational techniques such as Group Solvers to reduce the computational effort involved in solving the equations. This paper concentrates on recent research into the use of artificial intelligence techniques to assist in dynamic solution control of fire scenarios being simulated using fire field modelling techniques. This is designed to improve the convergence capabilities of the software while further decreasing the computational overheads. The technique automatically controls solver relaxations using an integrated production rule engine with a blackboard to monitor and implement the required control changes during solution processing. Initial results for a two-dimensional fire simulation are presented that demonstrate the potential for considerable savings in simulation run-times when compared with control sets from various sources. Furthermore, the results demonstrate enhanced solution reliability due to obtaining acceptable convergence within each time step unlike some of the comparison simulations.