A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in Northeastern Spain

The aim of this work is to introduce a systematic press database on natural hazards and climate change in Catalonia (NE of Spain) and to analyze its potential application to social-impact studies. For this reason, a review of the concepts of risk, hazard, vulnerability and social perception is also included. This database has been built for the period 1982¿2007 and contains all the news related with those issues published by the oldest still-active newspaper in Catalonia. Some parameters are registered for each article and for each event, including criteria that enable us to determine the importance accorded to it by the newspaper, and a compilation of information about it. This ACCESS data base allows each article to be classified on the basis of the seven defined topics and key words, as well as summary information about the format and structuring of the new itself, the social impact of the event and data about the magnitude or intensity of the event. The coverage given to this type of news has been assessed because of its influence on construction of the social perception of natural risk and climate change, and as a potential source of information about them. The treatment accorded by the press to different risks is also considered. More than 14 000 press articles have been classified. Results show that the largest number of news items for the period 1982¿2007 relates to forest fires and droughts, followed by floods and heavy rainfalls, although floods are the major risk in the region of study. Two flood events recorded in 2002 have been analyzed in order to show an example of the role of the press information as indicator of risk perception.

MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

Shift of spawning season and effects of climate warming on developmental stages of a grayling (Salmonidae)

River-dwelling fish, such as European graylings (Thymallus thymallus), are susceptible to changes in climate because they can often not avoid suboptimal temperatures, especially during early developmental stages. We analyzed data collected in a 62-year-long (1948-2009) population monitoring program. Male and female graylings were sampled about three times/week during the yearly spawning season in order to follow the development of the population. The occurrence of females bearing ripe eggs was used to approximate the timing of each spawning season. In the last years of the study, spawning season was more than 3 weeks earlier than in the first years. This shift was linked to increasing water temperatures as recorded over the last 39 years with a temperature logger at the spawning site. In early spring water temperatures rose more slowly than in later spring. Thus, embryos and larvae were exposed to increasingly colder water at a stage that is critical for sex determination and pathogen resistance in other salmonids. In summer, however, fry were exposed to increasingly warmer temperatures. The changes in water temperatures that we found embryos, larvae, and fry were exposed to could be contributing to the decline in abundance that has occurred over the last 30-40 years.

Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review

Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected.

Recovery of biological motion perception and network plasticity after cerebellar tumor removal.

Visual perception of body motion is vital for everyday activities such as social interaction, motor learning or car driving. Tumors to the left lateral cerebellum impair visual perception of body motion. However, compensatory potential after cerebellar damage and underlying neural mechanisms remain unknown. In the present study, visual sensitivity to point-light body motion was psychophysically assessed in patient SL with dysplastic gangliocytoma (Lhermitte-Duclos disease) to the left cerebellum before and after neurosurgery, and in a group of healthy matched controls. Brain activity during processing of body motion was assessed by functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Alterations in underlying cerebro-cerebellar circuitry were studied by psychophysiological interaction (PPI) analysis. Visual sensitivity to body motion in patient SL before neurosurgery was substantially lower than in controls, with significant improvement after neurosurgery. Functional MRI in patient SL revealed a similar pattern of cerebellar activation during biological motion processing as in healthy participants, but located more medially, in the left cerebellar lobules III and IX. As in normalcy, PPI analysis showed cerebellar communication with a region in the superior temporal sulcus, but located more anteriorly. The findings demonstrate a potential for recovery of visual body motion processing after cerebellar damage, likely mediated by topographic shifts within the corresponding cerebro-cerebellar circuitry induced by cerebellar reorganization. The outcome is of importance for further understanding of cerebellar plasticity and neural circuits underpinning visual social cognition.

The abrupt climate change at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary and the emergence of South-East Asia triggered the spread of sapindaceous lineages.

Background and Aims Paleoclimatic data indicate that an abrupt climate change occurred at the Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) boundary affecting the distribution of tropical forests on Earth. The same period has seen the emergence of South-East (SE) Asia, caused by the collision of the Eurasian and Australian plates. How the combination of these climatic and geomorphological factors affected the spatio-temporal history of angiosperms is little known. This topic is investigated by using the worldwide sapindaceous clade as a case study. Methods Analyses of divergence time inference, diversification and biogeography (constrained by paleogeography) are applied to a combined plastid and nuclear DNA sequence data set. Biogeographical and diversification analyses are performed over a set of trees to take phylogenetic and dating uncertainty into account. Results are analysed in the context of past climatic fluctuations. Key Results An increase in the number of dispersal events at the E-O boundary is recorded, which intensified during the Miocene. This pattern is associated with a higher rate in the emergence of new genera. These results are discussed in light of the geomorphological importance of SE Asia, which acted as a tropical bridge allowing multiple contacts between areas and additional speciation across landmasses derived from Laurasia and Gondwana. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of the combined effect of geomorphological (the emergence of most islands in SE Asia approx. 30 million years ago) and climatic (the dramatic E-O climate change that shifted the tropical belt and reduced sea levels) factors in shaping species distribution within the sapindaceous clade.

Heat perception and signalling in plants: a tortuous path to thermotolerance.

An accurate assessment of the rising ambient temperature by plant cells is crucial for the timely activation of various molecular defences before the appearance of heat damage. Recent findings have allowed a better understanding of the early cellular events that take place at the beginning of mild temperature rise, to timely express heat-shock proteins (HSPs), which will, in turn, confer thermotolerance to the plant. Here, we discuss the key components of the heat signalling pathway and suggest a model in which a primary sensory role is carried out by the plasma membrane and various secondary messengers, such as Ca(2+) ions, nitric oxide (NO) and hydrogen peroxide (H(2) O(2) ). We also describe the role of downstream components, such as calmodulins, mitogen-activated protein kinases and Hsp90, in the activation of heat-shock transcription factors (HSFs). The data gathered for land plants suggest that, following temperature elevation, the heat signal is probably transduced by several pathways that will, however, coalesce into the final activation of HSFs, the expression of HSPs and the onset of cellular thermotolerance.

Molecular Proxies for Climate Maladaptation in a Long-Lived Tree (Pinus pinaster Aiton, Pinaceae).

Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change.

Risk perception and emotional coping: a pathway for behavioural addiction?

This article summarizes current concepts of the working memory with regard to its role within emotional coping strategies. In particular, it focuses on the fact that the limited capacity of the working memory to process now-relevant information can be turned into an advantage, when the individual is occupied by dealing with unpleasant emotion. Based on a phenomenon known as dual-task interference (DTI), this emotion can be chased by intense arousal due to clearly identifiable external stressors. Thus, risk perception might be used as a 'DTI inductor' that allows avoidance of unpleasant emotion. Successful mastery of risk adds a highly relevant dopaminergic component to the overall experience. The resulting mechanism of implicit learning may contribute to the development of a behavioural addiction. Besides its putative effects in the development of a behavioural addiction, the use of DTI might be of a more general interest for the clinical practice, especially in the field of psychotherapy. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.