Silt content of two lake records from the Eifel

A comparison of a last interglacial annually laminated and varve counted maar lake record from the Eifel/Germany, with a laminated lake sediment record from Northern Germany shows, that high resolution cores can be correlated across central Europe by dust/loess content, if the resolution of grain size data is on the order of decades/centuries. Phases of widespread dust dispersal are the same as the cold events in the Greenland ice and North Atlantic sea surface temperature patterns. The first occurrence of dust in Northern Germany and in the Eifel is during the Late Eemian Aridity Pulse (LEAP, Sirocko et al. 2005) which is called C26 in ocean records (McManus, same vol.). This cold and arid event occurred exactly at the time of the last glacial inception at 118 kyr. Vegetation change in Northern Germany and the Eifel is out of phase after the LEAP. A taiga/tundra vegetation charcterizes Northern Germany between the LEAP and C24, whereas at the same time a Carpinus dominated temperate forest spread in the Eifel region, comparable to the Carpinus dominated forests in France (Sánchez Goñi et al., 2005). A drastic cooling, associated with widespread aridity, came with the C24 cold event, when the vegetation of central Europe changed to a tundra or shrub tundra.

Hydroclimate records and radiocarbon dating of sediment cores SO189/2 _39KL, SO189/2 _119KL, and SO189/2 _144KL from the eastern tropical Indian Ocean

The response of the tropical climate in the Indian Ocean realm to abrupt climate change events in the North Atlantic Ocean is contentious. Repositioning of the intertropical convergence zone is thought to have been responsible for changes in tropical hydroclimate during North Atlantic cold spells1, 2, 3, 4, 5, but the dearth of high-resolution records outside the monsoon realm in the Indian Ocean precludes a full understanding of this remote relationship and its underlying mechanisms. Here we show that slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich stadials and the Younger Dryas stadial affected the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate through changes to the Hadley circulation including a southward shift in the rising branch (the intertropical convergence zone) and an overall weakening over the southern Indian Ocean. Our results are based on new, high-resolution sea surface temperature and seawater oxygen isotope records of well-dated sedimentary archives from the tropical eastern Indian Ocean for the past 45,000 years, combined with climate model simulations of Atlantic circulation slowdown under Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 3 boundary conditions. Similar conditions in the east and west of the basin rule out a zonal dipole structure as the dominant forcing of the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate of millennial-scale events. Results from our simulations and proxy data suggest dry conditions in the northern Indian Ocean realm and wet and warm conditions in the southern realm during North Atlantic cold spells.

Lesson from the habitat suitability models to evaluate the environmental of Pinus nigra Arnold and Pinus sylvesris L. in the Iberian Peninsula

PREDICT POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION. Spatial and temporal evolution of the species under different climate scenarios. Generation of habitat suitability models (HSM)  high degree of uncertainty and limitations. The importance of their validation has been stressed. In this work we discuss the present potential distribution of P. sylvestris and P. nigra in the Iberian Peninsula by using MaxEnt, and evaluate the influence of the different environmental variables. Our intention is to select a set of environmental variables that explains better their current distribution, to achieve the most accurate and reliable models. Then we project them to the past climatic conditions (21 to 0 kyrs BP), to evaluate the outputs with existing palaeo-ecological data.

Analyzing climate change adaptation in the agriculture and water sectors: screening risks and opportunities.

As part of the Mediterranean area, the Guadiana basin in Spain is particularly exposed to increasing water stress due to climate change. Future warmer and drier climate will have negative implications for the sustainability of water resources and irrigation agriculture, the main socio- economic sector in the region. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation in the Guadiana basin based on a two-stage modeling approach. First, an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework was used to simulate the potential effects of regional climate change scenarios for the period 2000-2069. Second, a participatory multi-criteria technique, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was applied to rank potential adaptation measures based on agreed criteria. Results show that, in the middle-long run and under severe climate change, reduced water availability, lower crop yields and increased irrigation demands might lead to water shortages, crop failure, and up to ten percent of income losses to irrigators. AHP results show how private farming adaptation measures, including improving irrigation efficiency and adjusting crop varieties, are preferred to public adaptation measures, such as building new dams. The integrated quantitative and qualitative methodology used in this research can be considered a socially-based valuable tool to support adaptation decision-making.

Impacts of global change on iberian forest ecosystems inferred from the spanish national forest inventory = Impactos del cambio global en ecosistemas forestales ibéricos a partir del inventario forestal nacional

Los efectos del cambio global sobre los bosques son una de las grandes preocupaciones de la sociedad del siglo XXI. Algunas de sus posibles consecuencias como son los efectos en la producción, la sostenibilidad, la pérdida de biodiversidad o cambios en la distribución y ensamblaje de especies forestales pueden tener grandes repercusiones sociales, ecológicas y económicas. La detección y seguimiento de estos efectos constituyen uno de los retos a los que se enfrentan en la actualidad científicos y gestores forestales. En base a la comparación de series históricas del Inventario Forestal Nacional Español (IFN), esta tesis trata de arrojar luz sobre algunos de los impactos que los cambios socioeconómicos y ambientales de las últimas décadas han generado sobre nuestros bosques. En primer lugar, esta tesis presenta una innovadora metodología con base geoestadística que permite la comparación de diferentes ciclos de inventario sin importar los diferentes métodos de muestreo empleados en cada uno de ellos (Capítulo 3). Esta metodología permite analizar cambios en la dinámica y distribución espacial de especies forestales en diferentes gradientes geográficos. Mediante su aplicación, se constatarán y cuantificarán algunas de las primeras evidencias de cambio en la distribución altitudinal y latitudinal de diferentes especies forestales ibéricas, que junto al estudio de su dinámica poblacional y tasas demográficas, ayudarán a testar algunas hipótesis biogeográficas en un escenario de cambio global en zonas de especial vulnerabilidad (Capítulos 3, 4 y 5). Por último, mediante la comparación de ciclos de parcelas permanentes del IFN se ahondará en el conocimiento de la evolución en las últimas décadas de especies invasoras en los ecosistemas forestales del cuadrante noroccidental ibérico, uno de los más afectados por la invasión de esta flora (Capítulo 6). ABSTRACT The effects of global change on forests are one of the major concerns of the XXI century. Some of the potential impacts of global change on forest growth, productivity, biodiversity or changes in species assembly and spatial distribution may have great ecological and economic consequences. The detection and monitoring of these effects are some of the major challenges that scientists and forest managers face nowadays. Based on the comparison of historical series of the Spanish National Forest Inventory (NFI), this thesis tries to shed some light on some of the impacts driven by recent socio-economic and environmental changes on our forest ecosystems. Firstly, this thesis presents an innovative methodology based on geostatistical techniques that allows the comparison of different NFI cycles regardless of the different sampling methods used in each of them (Chapter 3). This methodology, in conjunction with other statistical techniques, allows to analyze changes in the spatial distribution and population dynamics of forest species along different geographic gradients. By its application, this thesis presents some of the first evidences of changes in species distribution along different geographical gradients in the Iberian Peninsula. The analysis of these findings, of species population dynamics and demographic rates will help to test some biogeographical hypothesis on forests under climate change scenarios in areas of particular vulnerability (Chapters 3, 4 and 5). Finally, by comparing NFI cycles with permanent plots, this thesis increases our knowledge about the patterns and processes associated with the recent evolution of invasive species in the forest ecosystems of North-western Iberia, one of the areas most affected by the invasion of allien species at national scale (Chapter 6).

Perspectives in Resource Management and Climate Change Adaptation in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 6, March 2013

This policy paper focuses on the sustainable management of some key natural resources in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs) under climate change and anthropogenic pressures. In a business-as-usual and even more so in a failed cooperation scenario, water resources, ecosystems and biodiversity in the region are under stress, with negative consequences for agriculture, food security, tourism and development. However, proper adaptation strategies are shown to be effective in reconciling resource conservation with GDP, trade and population growth. These need be implemented in different ways: technological, institutional, behavioural; and at different levels: regional, national and international. There is ample room for fruitful cooperation between the EU and SEMCs in this area, which can take the form of EU direct financial and technical support when resources in SEMCs are scarce, and of multilateral and bilateral cooperation programmes to improve resource efficiency. The EU could also take on the role of coordinating these different bilateral actions and, at the same time, support SEMCs to establish a structured programme focused on the communication and dissemination of emerging best practices.

Sedimentological and geophysical investigation of sediment cores from the Amundsen Sea

Ice loss from the marine-based, potentially unstable West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) contributes to current sea-level rise and may raise sea level by up to 3.3 to 5 meters in the future. Over the past few decades, glaciers draining the WAIS into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) have shown accelerated ice flow, rapid thinning and grounding-line retreat. However, the long-term context of this ice-sheet retreat is poorly constrained, limiting our ability to accurately predict future WAIS behaviour. Here we present a new chronology for WAIS retreat from the inner continental shelf of the eastern ASE based on radiocarbon dates from three marine sediment cores. The ages document a retreat of the grounding line to within ~93 km of its modern position before 11.7±0.7 kyr BP (thousand years before present). This early deglaciation is consistent with ages for grounding-line retreat from the western ASE. Our new data demonstrate that, other than in the Ross Sea, WAIS retreat in the ASE has not continued progressively since the Last Glacial Maximum. Furthermore, our results suggest that the grounding-line position in the ASE was predominantly stable throughout the Holocene, and that any episodes of fast retreat similar to that observed today must have been short-lived. Alternatively, today's rapid retreat was unprecedented during the Holocene. Therefore, the current ice loss must originate in recent changes in regional climate, ocean circulation or ice-sheet dynamics. Incorporation of these results into models is essential to produce robust predictions of future ice-sheet change and its contribution to sea-level rise.

Estimates of %NCW bathing deep North Atlantic (IODP Site 306-U1313) over the past ~3.3 Ma

The circulation and internal structure of the oceans exert a strong influence on Earth's climate because they control latitudinal heat transport and the segregation of carbon between the atmosphere and the abyss (Sigman et al., 2010, doi:10.1038/nature09149). Circulation change, particularly in the Atlantic Ocean, is widely suggested (Bartoli et al., 2005, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2005.06.020; Haug and Tiedemann, 1998, doi:10.1038/31447; Woodard et al., 2014, doi:10.1126/science.1255586; McKay et al., 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1112248109) to have been instrumental in the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation when large ice sheets first developed on North America and Eurasia during the late Pliocene, approximately 2.7 million years ago (Bailey et al., 2013, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.06.004). Yet the mechanistic link and cause/effect relationship between ocean circulation and glaciation are debated. Here we present new records of North Atlantic Ocean structure using the carbon and neodymium isotopic composition of marine sediments recording deep water for both the Last Glacial to Holocene (35-5 thousand years ago) and the late Pliocene to earliest Pleistocene (3.3-2.4 million years ago). Our data show no secular change. Instead we document major southern-sourced water incursions into the deep North Atlantic during prominent glacials from 2.7 million years ago. Our results suggest that Atlantic circulation acts as a positive feedback rather than as an underlying cause of late Pliocene Northern Hemisphere glaciation. We propose that, once surface Southern Ocean stratification (Sigman, et al., 2004, doi:10.1038/nature02357) and/or extensive sea-ice cover (McKay et al., 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1112248109) was established, cold-stage expansions of southern-sourced water such as those documented here enhanced carbon dioxide storage in the deep ocean, helping to increase the amplitude of glacial cycles.