Quantitative study of evolution in the Sphaeroidinella lineage in mid-Pleistocene sediment of ODP Hole 154-926A (Appendix A)

Morphological evolution in the late Neogene planktonic foraminifer Sphaeroidinella lineage involves a sudden increase of the percentage of specimens equipped with supplementary apertures (from <30% to >70%) in the mid-Pliocene (about 3.5 Ma). This evolutionary transition, marked by the first occurrence of specimens with large supplementary apertures in the lineage, is denoted the Sphaeroidinella event. Changes in the proportions of the supplementary apertures in the lineage were studied in 24 samples from ODP Hole 926A drilled in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. In addition, detailed chronological models have been compiled for this section as well as for Pliocene sections from DSDP Holes 214, 502A, and 503B, where evolution in the lineage have been analyzed previously. Stratigraphic correlation of the studied sequences suggests that the Sphaeroidinella event took place at about 3.6 Ma in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Hole 503B) and at 3.5-3.6 Ma in the Caribbean (Hole 502A), while in the Atlantic Ocean (Hole 926A) and in the Indian Ocean (Hole 214) the event occurred after 3.5 Ma. The inferred diachrony of the mid-Pliocene Sphaeroidinella transition, which is considered to represent a prime example of punctuated anagenesis, suggests that this evolutionary modality may have an allopatric component. Its short duration (on average less than 50 kyr) and the detailed biochronology that could be established for this event qualifies it as a useful biostratigraphic tool in the low-latitude Pliocene oceans.

Certain observations concerning the effects of epistasis on complex traits and the evolution of genomes.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-05

Validation and refinement of survival models for liver retransplantation

Orthotopic liver retransplantation (re-OLT) is highly controversial. The objectives of this study were to determine the validity of a recently developed United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) multivariate model using an independent cohort of patients undergoing re-OLT outside the United States, to determine whether incorporation of other variables that were incomplete in the UNOS registry would provide additional prognostic information, to develop new models combining data sets from both cohorts, and to evaluate the validity of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in patients undergoing re-OLT. Two hundred eighty-one adult patients undergoing re-OLT (between 1986 and 1999) at 6 foreign transplant centers comprised the validation cohort. We found good agreement between actual survival and predicted survival in the validation cohort; 1-year patient survival rates in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (as assigned by the original UNOS model) were 72%, 68%, and 36%, respectively (P < .0001). In the patients for whom the international normalized ratio (INR) of prothrombin time was available, MELD correlated with outcome following re-OLT; the median MELD scores for patients surviving at least 90 days compared with those dying within 90 days were 20.75 versus 25.9, respectively (P = .004). Utilizing both patient cohorts (n = 979), a new model, based on recipient age, total serum bilirubin, creatinine, and interval to re-OLT, was constructed (whole model χ(2) = 105, P < .0001). Using the c-statistic with 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 3-year mortality as the end points, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 4 different models were compared. In conclusion, prospective validation and use of these models as adjuncts to clinical decision making in the management of patients being considered for re-OLT are warranted.

A refined solution to Earth's hidden niobium: implications for evolution of continental crust and mode of core formation

New high-precision niobium (Nb) and tantalum (Ta) concentration data are presented for early Archaean metabasalts, metabasaltic komatiites and their erosion products (mafic metapelites) from SW Greenland and the Acasta gneiss complex, Canada. Individual datasets consistently show sub-chondritic Nb/Ta ratios averaging 15.1+/-11.6. This finding is discussed with regard to two competing models for the solution of the Nb-deficit that characterises the accessible Earth. Firstly, we test whether Nb could have sequestered into the core due to its slightly siderophile (or chalcophile) character under very reducing conditions, as recently proposed from experimental evidence. We demonstrate that troilite inclusions of the Canyon Diablo iron meteorite have Nb and V concentrations in excess of typical chondrites but that the metal phase of the Grant, Toluca and Canyon Diablo iron meteorites do not have significant concentrations of these lithophile elements. We find that if the entire accessible Earth Nb-deficit were explained by Nb in the core, only ca. 17% of the mantle could be depleted and that by 3.7 Ga, continental crust would have already achieved ca. 50% of its present mass. Nb/Ta systematics of late Archaean metabasalts compiled from the literature would further require that by 2.5 Ga, 90% of the present mass of continental crust was already in existence. As an alternative to this explanation, we propose that the average Nb/Ta ratio (15.1+/-11.6) of Earth's oldest mafic rocks is a valid approximation for bulk silicate Earth. This would require that ca. 13% of the terrestrial Nb resided in the Ta-free core. Since the partitioning of Nb between silicate and metal melts depends largely on oxygen fugacity and pressure, this finding could mean that metal/silicate segregation did not occur at the base of a deep magma ocean or that the early mantle was slightly less reducing than generally assumed. A bulk silicate Earth Nb/Ta ratio of 15.1 allows for depletion of up to 40% of the total mantle. This could indicate that in addition to the upper mantle, a portion of the lower mantle is depleted also, or if only the upper mantle were depleted, an additional hidden high Nb/Ta reservoir must exist. Comparison of Nb/Ta systematics between early and late Archaean metabasalts supports the latter idea and indicates deeply subducted high Nb/Ta eclogite slabs could reside in the mantle transition zone or the lower mantle. Accumulation of such slabs appears to have commenced between 2.5 and 2.0 Ga. Regardless of these complexities of terrestrial Nb/Ta systematics, it is shown that the depleted mantle Nb/Th ratio is a very robust proxy for the amount of extracted continental crust, because the temporal evolution of this ratio is dominated by Th-loss to the continents and not Nb-retention in the mantle. We present a new parameterisation of the continental crust volume versus age curve that specifically explores the possibility of lithophile element loss to the core and storage of eclogite slabs in the transition zone. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic competition and evolution: Are there lessons from ecology?

After generally discussing models in ecology and economics that combine competition, optimization, and evolution, this article concentrates on models of intraspecific competition. It demonstrates the importance of diversity/inequalities within populations of species and other environments for the sustainability of their populations, given the occurrence of environmental change. This is demonstrated both for scramble (open-access) and contest competition. Implications are drawn for human populations and industrial organization. The possibility is raised that within-industry competition may not always exist between firms in all stages of the development of a new industry. Policy implications are considered. For example, it is argued that policies designed to encourage intense business competition and maximum economic efficiency have the drawback of eventually making industries highly vulnerable to exogenous economic changes.

How primatology can inform us about the evolution of the humand mind

Humans are primates. We have evolved from common ancestors and the evolution of the human body is becoming increasingly clear as the archeological record expands. But for most people the gap between humans and animals lies in the mind, not in the body. And minds do not fossilise. To reconstruct the evolution of mind, scholars have thus increasingly looked to our closest relatives for clues. Here I discuss four ways in which the study of primates may inform such reconstruction: fact-finding, phylogenetic reconstruction, analogy, and regression models. Knowledge about primates can help us bridge the gap. Extinction of our closest relatives, on the other hand, would not only deplete that source of information but also increase the apparent differences between animal and human minds. It is likely that we have a long history of displacing closely related species, including the other hominids, leading us to appear ever more unique.

The functions of societies and the evolution of group living: Spider societies as a test case

Many models have been advanced to suggest how different expressions of sociality have evolved and are maintained. However these models ignore the function of groups for the particular species in question. Here we present a new perspective on sociality where the function of the group takes a central role. We argue that sociality may have primarily a reproductive, protective, or foraging function, depending on whether it enhances the reproductive, protective or foraging aspect of the animal's life (sociality may serve a mixture of these functions). Different functions can potentially cause the development of the same social behaviour. By identifying which function influences a particular social behaviour we can determine how that social behaviour will change with changing conditions, and which models are most pertinent. To test our approach we examined spider sociality, which has often been seen as the poor cousin to insect sociality. By using our approach we found that the group characteristics of eusocial insects is largely governed by the reproductive function of their groups, while the group characteristics of social spiders is largely governed by the foraging function of the group. This means that models relevant to insects may not be relevant to spiders. It also explains why eusocial insects have developed a strict caste system while spider societies are more egalitarian. We also used our approach to explain the differences between different types of spider groups. For example, differences in the characteristics of colonial and kleptoparasitic groups can be explained by differences in foraging methods, while differences between colonial and cooperative spiders can be explained by the role of the reproductive function in the formation of cooperative spider groups. Although the interactions within cooperative spider colonies are largely those of a foraging society, demographic traits and colony dynamics are strongly influenced by the reproductive function. We argue that functional explanations help to understand the social structure of spider groups and therefore the evolutionary potential for speciation in social spiders.

Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia: A comparison of regression based models and a bio-climatic based modeling approach

Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.

Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes

This paper has three primary aims: to establish an effective means for modelling mainland-island metapopulations inhabiting a dynamic landscape: to investigate the effect of immigration and dynamic changes in habitat on metapopulation patch occupancy dynamics; and to illustrate the implications of our results for decision-making and population management. We first extend the mainland-island metapopulation model of Alonso and McKane [Bull. Math. Biol. 64:913-958,2002] to incorporate a dynamic landscape. It is shown, for both the static and the dynamic landscape models, that a suitably scaled version of the process converges to a unique deterministic model as the size of the system becomes large. We also establish that. under quite general conditions, the density of occupied patches, and the densities of suitable and occupied patches, for the respective models, have approximate normal distributions. Our results not only provide us with estimates for the means and variances that are valid at all stages in the evolution of the population, but also provide a tool for fitting the models to real metapopulations. We discuss the effect of immigration and habitat dynamics on metapopulations, showing that mainland-like patches heavily influence metapopulation persistence, and we argue for adopting measures to increase connectivity between this large patch and the other island-like patches. We illustrate our results with specific reference to examples of populations of butterfly and the grasshopper Bryodema tuberculata.

The 2df SDSS LRG and QSO survey: evolution of the luminosity function of luminous red galaxies to z=0.6

We present new measurements of the luminosity function (LF) of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the 2dF SDSS LRG and Quasar (2SLAQ) survey. We have carefully quantified, and corrected for, uncertainties in the K and evolutionary corrections, differences in the colour selection methods, and the effects of photometric errors, thus ensuring we are studying the same galaxy population in both surveys. Using a limited subset of 6326 SDSS LRGs (with 0.17 < z < 0.24) and 1725 2SLAQ LRGs (with 0.5 < z < 0.6), for which the matching colour selection is most reliable, we find no evidence for any additional evolution in the LRG LF, over this redshift range, beyond that expected from a simple passive evolution model. This lack of additional evolution is quantified using the comoving luminosity density of SDSS and 2SLAQ LRGs, brighter than M-0.2r - 5 log h(0.7) = - 22.5, which are 2.51 +/- 0.03 x 10(-7) L circle dot Mpc(-3) and 2.44 +/- 0.15 x 10(-7) L circle dot Mpc(-3), respectively (< 10 per cent uncertainty). We compare our LFs to the COMBO-17 data and find excellent agreement over the same redshift range. Together, these surveys show no evidence for additional evolution (beyond passive) in the LF of LRGs brighter than M-0.2r - 5 log h(0.7) = - 21 ( or brighter than similar to L-*).. We test our SDSS and 2SLAQ LFs against a simple 'dry merger' model for the evolution of massive red galaxies and find that at least half of the LRGs at z similar or equal to 0.2 must already have been well assembled (with more than half their stellar mass) by z similar or equal to 0.6. This limit is barely consistent with recent results from semi-analytical models of galaxy evolution.

Anisotropic viscous models of large-deformation Mohr-Coulomb failure

We have developed a way to represent Mohr-Coulomb failure within a mantle-convection fluid dynamics code. We use a viscous model of deformation with an orthotropic viscoplasticity (a different viscosity is used for pure shear to that used for simple shear) to define a prefered plane for slip to occur given the local stress field. The simple-shear viscosity and the deformation can then be iterated to ensure that the yield criterion is always satisfied. We again assume the Boussinesq approximation, neglecting any effect of dilatancy on the stress field. An additional criterion is required to ensure that deformation occurs along the plane aligned with maximum shear strain-rate rather than the perpendicular plane, which is formally equivalent in any symmetric formulation. We also allow for strain-weakening of the material. The material can remember both the accumulated failure history and the direction of failure. We have included this capacity in a Lagrangian-integration-point finite element code and show a number of examples of extension and compression of a crustal block with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. The formulation itself is general and applies to 2- and 3-dimensional problems.

Stirring in 3-d spherical models of convection in the Earth's mantle

On a global scale basalts from mid-ocean ridges are strikingly more homogeneous than basalts from intraplate volcanism. The observed geochemical heterogeneity argues strongly for the existence of distinct reservoirs in the Earth's mantle. It is an unresolved problem of Geodynamics as to how these findings can be reconciled with large-scale convection. We review observational constraints, and investigate stirring properties of numerical models of mantle convection. Conditions in the early Earth may have supported layered convection with rapid stirring in the upper layers. Material that has been altered near the surface is transported downwards by small-scale convection. Thereby a layer of homogeneous depleted material develops above pristine mantle. As the mantle cools over Earth history, the effects leading to layering become reduced and models show the large-scale convection favoured for the Earth today. Laterally averaged, the upper mantle below the lithosphere is least affected by material that has experienced near-surface differentiation. The geochemical signature obtained during the previous episode of small-scale convection may be preserved there for the longest time. Additionally, stirring is less effective in the high viscosity layer of the central lower mantle [1, 2], supporting the survival of medium-scale heterogeneities there. These models are the first, using 3-d spherical geometry and mostly Earth-like parameters, to address the suggested change of convective style. Although the models are still far from reproducing our planet, we find that proposal might be helpful towards reconciling geochemical and geophysical constraints.

Recurrence interval statistics of cellular automaton seismicity models

The recurrence interval statistics for regional seismicity follows a universal distribution function, independent of the tectonic setting or average rate of activity (Corral, 2004). The universal function is a modified gamma distribution with power-law scaling of recurrence intervals shorter than the average rate of activity and exponential decay for larger intervals. We employ the method of Corral (2004) to examine the recurrence statistics of a range of cellular automaton earthquake models. The majority of models has an exponential distribution of recurrence intervals, the same as that of a Poisson process. One model, the Olami-Feder-Christensen automaton, has recurrence statistics consistent with regional seismicity for a certain range of the conservation parameter of that model. For conservation parameters in this range, the event size statistics are also consistent with regional seismicity. Models whose dynamics are dominated by characteristic earthquakes do not appear to display universality of recurrence statistics.

Optimising profitability and environmental trade-offs in managing cropping systems using differential evolution

Whilst traditional optimisation techniques based on mathematical programming techniques are in common use, they suffer from their inability to explore the complexity of decision problems addressed using agricultural system models. In these models, the full decision space is usually very large while the solution space is characterized by many local optima. Methods to search such large decision spaces rely on effective sampling of the problem domain. Nevertheless, problem reduction based on insight into agronomic relations and farming practice is necessary to safeguard computational feasibility. Here, we present a global search approach based on an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA). We introduce a multi-objective evaluation technique within this EA framework, linking the optimisation procedure to the APSIM cropping systems model. The approach addresses the issue of system management when faced with a trade-off between economic and ecological consequences.

A rigorous foundation for pattern based design models

This paper presents a way to describe design patterns rigorously based on role concepts. Rigorous pattern descriptions are a key aspect for patterns to be used as rules for model evolution in the MDA context, for example. We formalize the role concepts commonly used in defining design patterns as a role metamodel using Object-Z. Given this role metamodel, individual design patterns are specified generically as a formal pattern role model using Object-Z. We also formalize the properties that must be captured in a class model when a design pattern is deployed. These properties are defined generically in terms of role bindings from a pattern role model to a class model. Our work provides a precise but abstract approach for pattern definition and also provides a precise basis for checking the validity of pattern usage in designs.