Ciclos económicos, capital bancario y nuevas opciones de política económica

El objetivo de este trabajo es utilizar algunos hechos estilizados de la "Gran recesión", específicamente la drástica caída en el nivel de capitalización bancario, para analizar la relación entre los ciclos financieros y los ciclos reales, así como la efectividad de la política monetaria no convencional y las políticas macroprudenciales. Para esto, en el primer capítulo se desarrolla una microfundamentación de la banca a partir de un modelo de Costly State Verification, que es incluido posteriomente en distintas especificaciones de modelos DSGE. Los resultados muestran que: (i) los ciclos financieros y los ciclos económicos pueden relacionarse a partir del deterioro del capital bancario; (ii) Las políticas macroprudenciales y no convencionales son efectivas para moderar los ciclos económicos, pero son costosas en términos de recursos e inflación.

Estudio de empresas de sectores hegemónicos en Colombia para los años 2013 y 2014

Este documento evidencia las posiciones hegemónicas que han llegado a ocupar las empresas más poderosas del país, basándose en el estudio de datos cuantitativos del conteo de las cien empresas con mejores ventas para los años 2013 y 2014, según la revista Gerente. Se usan cinco variables: ventas totales, activos, pasivos, patrimonio y utilidades netas. En la primera sección, se hace una revisión bibliográfica que conecta el origen de la hegemonía en un panorama económico con la influencia del neoliberalismo y la globalización en el actual tejido industrial colombiano. Posteriormente, se realiza una explicación sobre la metodología aplicada para el estudio de la base de datos; la cual es seguida por una exposición de los resultados obtenidos a partir de herramientas estadísticas como el análisis de correlación lineal, quintiles y variaciones porcentuales. Finalmente, se aborda el Programa de Transformación Productiva, esto con el objetivo de mostrar los puntos focales que necesitan especial atención para lograr catalizar el desarrollo económico de Colombia.

A közép-kelet-európai bankfúziók eredményessége (The success of the bank mergers in Central Eastern Europe)

Az elmúlt években a nagy európai bankcsoportok egyre több közép-kelet-európai bankot vásároltak fel. Tanulmányunkban a bankfúziók értékteremtő hatását részvényesi szemmel elemezzük. A közép-kelet-európai régióban tevékenykedő hét legnagyobb bankcsoport 2000 és 2008 közötti akvizíciós tranzakcióit az eseményelemzés módszerével vizsgáljuk. Úgy tűnik, a részvényesek összességében értékelik a bankcsoportok akvizíciós törekvéseit: a fúziók kicsit több mint felében pozitív a kumulált abnormális hozam, és enyhén pozitív az összes esemény abnormális hozamának átlaga is. Számításaink során elsőként az egyes bankcsoportok felvásárlási stratégiáját értékeljük. A felvásárlás bejelentése körüli háromnapos időintervallumot alapul véve, a Raiffeisen és az OTP stratégiája tekinthető a legsikeresebbnek, míg az Erste felvásárlásai a legkevésbé eredményesnek. Ezt követően rávilágítunk arra, hogy eltérő befektetői szándékból ugyan, de mind a legmagasabb, mind a legalacsonyabb értékű ügyletek esetében a pozitív abnormális hozamú fúziók vannak túlsúlyban. Végezetül megállapítjuk, hogy az országhatáron átívelő ügyletek befektetői megítélése nem rosszabb az országhatáron belüli tranzakciókénál. /===/ The big European banking groups have been buying up more and more banks in Central Eastern Europe. The study analyses the value-enhancing effects of the mergers from the shareholder’s angle by examining by occurrence analysis methods the Central East European acquisition transactions of the seven biggest banking groups between 2000 and 2008. The shareholders as a whole seem to appreciate the acquisition activity of the banks: cumulative abnormal yield is positive in over half the mergers and average abnormal yield of all occurrences is mildly positive as well. The authors evaluate first the acquisition strategies of each banking group. Based on a three-day period round the acquisition announcement, Raiffeisen and OTP seem to have the most successful strategies and Erste the least successful. Light is then shed on investment intentions in each case, but mergers with a positive abnormal yield predominate among the highest and the lowest value transactions. Finally, the investor evaluation of cross-border transactions is no worse than for domestic ones.

First recorded occurrence of detrital baddeleyite (ZrO2) in sedimentary rock (Smith Bank Formation, Triassic, Central North Sea)

Peer reviewed

First recorded occurrence of detrital baddeleyite (ZrO2) in sedimentary rock (Smith Bank Formation, Triassic, Central North Sea)

Peer reviewed

Global and local perceptual style, field-independence, and central coherence: an attempt at concept validation

Historically, the concepts of field-independence, closure flexibility, and weak central coherence have been used to denote a locally, rather globally, dominated perceptual style. To date, there has been little attempt to clarify the relationship between these constructs, or to examine the convergent validity of the various tasks purported to measure them. To address this, we administered 14 tasks that have been used to study visual perceptual styles to a group of 90 neuro-typical adults. The data were subjected to exploratory factor analysis. We found evidence for the existence of a narrowly defined weak central coherence (field-independence) factor that received loadings from only a few of the tasks used to operationalise this concept. This factor can most aptly be described as representing the ability to dis-embed a simple stimulus from a more complex array. The results suggest that future studies of perceptual styles should include tasks whose theoretical validity is empirically verified, as such validity cannot be established merely on the basis of a priori task analysis. Moreover, the use of multiple indices is required to capture the latent dimensions of perceptual styles reliably.

Trends of T. cruzi infection based on data from blood bank screening

Between October 1988 and April 1989 a cross-sectional survey was carried out in six out of eight blood banks of Goiânia, Central Brazil. Subjects attending for first-time blood donation in the mornings of the study period (n = 1358) were interviewed and screened for T. cruzi infection as a part of a major study among blood donors. Tests to anti-T. cruzi antibodies were performed, simultaneously, by indirect hem agglutination test (IHA) and complement fixation test (CFT). A subject was considered seropositive when any one of the two tests showed a positive result. Information on age, sex, place of birth, migration and socio-economic level was recorded. Results from this survey were compared with seroprevalence rates obtained in previous studies in an attempt to analyse trend of T. cruzi infection in an endemic urban area. The overall seroprevalence of T. cruzi infection among first-time donors was found to be 3.5% (95% confidence interval 2.5%-4.5% ). The seroprevalence rate increased with age up to 45 years and then decreased. Migrants from rural areas had higher seroprevalence rates than subjects from urban counties (1.8%-16.2% vs. 0%-3.6%). A four fold decrease in prevalence rates was observed when these rates were compared with those of fifteen years ago. Two possible hypotheses to explain this difference were suggested: 1. a cohort effect related with the decrease of transmission in rural areas and/or 2. a differential proportion of people of rural origin among blood donors between the two periods. The potential usefulness of blood banks as a source of epidemiological information to monitor trends of T. cruzi infection in an urban adult population was stressed.

Estudo de viabilidade técnico-económica da instalação de caldeiras a biomassa para o aquecimento central do ISEP

Neste projeto pretende-se utilizar uma fonte energética renovável (nomeadamente a biomassa), no âmbito da produção de água quente para aquecimento central das instalações do Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto (ISEP). O objetivo principal remete para a avaliação técnico-económica da substituição das quinze caldeiras existentes, alimentadas a gás natural, por seis caldeiras alimentadas a biomassa, nomeadamente a pellets. Desta forma, permite-se apostar na biomassa como uma alternativa para reduzir a dependência dos combustíveis fósseis. Neste trabalho apresenta-se uma comparação realista do sistema de aquecimento existente face ao novo a implementar, alimentado por um combustível renovável utilizando caldeiras a pellets de 85% de rendimento. Para realizar esta comparação, usou-se as faturas energéticas de gás natural do ISEP, o custo da quantidade equivalente necessária de pellets, os custos de manutenção dos dois tipos de caldeiras e, os custos do consumo de energia elétrica por parte de ambas as caldeiras. Com este estudo, estimou-se uma poupança anual de 84.100,76 €/ano. Determinaram-se experimentalmente, em laboratório, os parâmetros essenciais de uma amostra de pellets, que foram usados para calcular as necessidades energéticas em biomassa no ISEP, bem como a produção de cinzas gerada por parte das caldeiras. Foi proposto um destino ambientalmente adequado para os 788,5 kg/ano de cinzas obtidas – a utilização na compostagem, após tratamento e aprovação de ensaios ecotoxicológicos realizados pela empresa que fará a sua recolha. As caldeiras a pellets terão um consumo mínimo teórico de 16,47 kgpellets/h, consumindo previsivelmente 197,13 tpellets/ano. Para este efeito, serão usadas caldeiras Quioto de 150 kW da marca Zantia. Para comparar distintas possibilidades de investimento para o projeto, avaliaram-se dois cenários: um foi escolhido de forma a cobrir o somatório da potência instalada das caldeiras atuais e o outro de forma a responder aos consumos energéticos em aquecimento atuais. Além disso, avaliaram-se cenários de financiamento do investimento distintos: um dos cenários corresponde ao pagamento do investimento total do projeto no momento da aquisição das caldeiras, enquanto o outro cenário, mais provável de ser escolhido, refere-se ao pedido de um empréstimo ao banco, no valor de 75% do investimento total. Para o cenário mais provável de investimento, obteve-se um VAL de 291.364,93 €/ano, com taxa interna de rentabilidade (TIR) de 17 %, um índice de rentabilidade (IR) de 1,85 e um período de retorno (PBP) de 5 anos. Todos os cenários avaliados registam rentabilidade do projeto de investimento, sem risco para o projeto.

Bank-firm relationships and financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Non-classical error bounds in the central limit theorem

The classical central limit theorem states the uniform convergence of the distribution functions of the standardized sums of independent and identically distributed square integrable real-valued random variables to the standard normal distribution function. While first versions of the central limit theorem are already due to Moivre (1730) and Laplace (1812), a systematic study of this topic started at the beginning of the last century with the fundamental work of Lyapunov (1900, 1901). Meanwhile, extensions of the central limit theorem are available for a multitude of settings. This includes, e.g., Banach space valued random variables as well as substantial relaxations of the assumptions of independence and identical distributions. Furthermore, explicit error bounds are established and asymptotic expansions are employed to obtain better approximations. Classical error estimates like the famous bound of Berry and Esseen are stated in terms of absolute moments of the random summands and therefore do not reflect a potential closeness of the distributions of the single random summands to a normal distribution. Non-classical approaches take this issue into account by providing error estimates based on, e.g., pseudomoments. The latter field of investigation was initiated by work of Zolotarev in the 1960's and is still in its infancy compared to the development of the classical theory. For example, non-classical error bounds for asymptotic expansions seem not to be available up to now ...

Prevalence and genotypes of GB Virus C/Hepatitis G virus among blood donors in Central Brazil

A survey was conducted in a blood donor population of Central Brazil aiming to investigate the prevalence of GB virus C (GBV-C)/hepatitis G virus (HGV) infection and also to analyze the virus genotypes distribution. A total of 241 voluntary blood donors were interviewed at the State Blood Bank in Goiânia, State of Goiás, Brazil. Blood samples were collected and serum samples tested for GBV-C/HGV RNA by polymerase chain reaction. Genotypes were determined by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis. Seventeen samples were GBV-C/HGV RNA-positive, resulting in a prevalence of 7.1% (95% CI: 4.2-11.1). A significant trend of GBV-C/HGV RNA positivity in relation to age was observed, with the highest prevalence in donors between 29-39 years old. Ten infected individuals were characterized by reporting parenteral (30%), sexual (18%), both (6%) and intrafamiliar (6%) transmission. However, 7 (40%) GBV-C/HGV RNA-positive donors did not mention any potential transmission route. RFLP analysis revealed the presence of genotypes 1 and 2 of GBV-C/HGV; more precisely, 10 (58.9%) samples were found belonging to the 2b subtype, 4 (23.5%) to the 2a subtype, and 3 (17.6%) to genotype 1. The present data indicate an intermediate endemicity of GBV-C/HGV infection among this blood donor population, and a predominant circulation of genotype 2 (subtype 2b) in Central Brazil.