Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

MAMOT: hidden Markov modeling tool.

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic models that are well adapted to many tasks in bioinformatics, for example, for predicting the occurrence of specific motifs in biological sequences. MAMOT is a command-line program for Unix-like operating systems, including MacOS X, that we developed to allow scientists to apply HMMs more easily in their research. One can define the architecture and initial parameters of the model in a text file and then use MAMOT for parameter optimization on example data, decoding (like predicting motif occurrence in sequences) and the production of stochastic sequences generated according to the probabilistic model. Two examples for which models are provided are coiled-coil domains in protein sequences and protein binding sites in DNA. A wealth of useful features include the use of pseudocounts, state tying and fixing of selected parameters in learning, and the inclusion of prior probabilities in decoding. AVAILABILITY: MAMOT is implemented in C++, and is distributed under the GNU General Public Licence (GPL). The software, documentation, and example model files can be found at http://bcf.isb-sib.ch/mamot

Dependencia de los algoritmos con el consumo de energía en sistemas HPC

El consumo energético es un aspecto cada vez más importante en el diseño de microprocesadores. Este trabajo experimenta con una técnica de control del consumo, el escalado dinámico de tensión y frecuencia (DVFS, siglas en inglés), para determinar cuan efectiva es la misma en la ejecución de programas con diferentes cargas de trabajo, intensivas en cómputo o memoria. Además, se ha extendido la experimentación a varios núcleos de ejecución, permitiendo comprobar en que medida las características de la ejecución en una arquitectura multicore afecta al desempeño de dicha técnica.

The cost-effectiveness and public health benefit of nalmefene added to psychosocial support for the reduction of alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels: a Markov model.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether nalmefene combined with psychosocial support is cost-effective compared with psychosocial support alone for reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels (DRLs) as defined by the WHO, and to evaluate the public health benefit of reducing harmful alcohol-attributable diseases, injuries and deaths. DESIGN: Decision modelling using Markov chains compared costs and effects over 5 years. SETTING: The analysis was from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: The model considered the licensed population for nalmefene, specifically adults with both alcohol dependence and high/very high DRLs, who do not require immediate detoxification and who continue to have high/very high DRLs after initial assessment. DATA SOURCES: We modelled treatment effect using data from three clinical trials for nalmefene (ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941)). Baseline characteristics of the model population, treatment resource utilisation and utilities were from these trials. We estimated the number of alcohol-attributable events occurring at different levels of alcohol consumption based on published epidemiological risk-relation studies. Health-related costs were from UK sources. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and number of alcohol-attributable harmful events avoided. RESULTS: Nalmefene in combination with psychosocial support had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5204 per QALY gained, and was therefore cost-effective at the £20,000 per QALY gained decision threshold. Sensitivity analyses showed that the conclusion was robust. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support led to the avoidance of 7179 alcohol-attributable diseases/injuries and 309 deaths per 100,000 patients compared to psychosocial support alone over the course of 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Nalmefene can be seen as a cost-effective treatment for alcohol dependence, with substantial public health benefits. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: This cost-effectiveness analysis was developed based on data from three randomised clinical trials: ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941).

Problemas en la implementación de algoritmos de routing de alta complejidad en dispositivos móviles: el caso Itiner@

La aparición de terminales de telefonía móvil cada vez más potentes abre un nuevo abanico de posibilidades en cuanto a usos y aplicaciones. Sin embargo, y dadas las limitaciones tanto de memoria como de CPU que tienen estos dispositivos, algunas de las aplicaciones potenciales resultan muy difíciles o incluso imposibles de llevar a la práctica. Este es el caso, por ejemplo, de aplicaciones de cálculo de rutas. En el contexto del proyecto Itiner@, un asistente para rutas turísticas completamente autónomo que debe funcionar incluso sin conexión a Internet, todos los procesos deben ejecutarse íntegramente de forma local en el dispositivo móvil. Dado que es un proyecto orientado al ocio, es importante que la experiencia del usuario sea satisfactoria, por lo que además de poder ejecutar el algoritmo de cálculo de rutas, el sistema debe hacerlo de forma rápida. En este sentido, los algoritmos recursivos habituales son demasiado costosos o lentos para su uso en Itiner@ y ha sido necesario reinventar este tipo de algoritmos en función de las limitaciones que tienen estos dispositivos. En el presente trabajo se presenta el proceso seguido y las dificultades encontradas para implementar un algoritmo recursivo de cálculo de rutas que se ejecute íntegramente en un dispositivo móvil Android de forma eficiente. Así, finalmente se llega a un algoritmo recursivo de cálculo de rutas para dispositivos móviles que se ejecuta de forma más eficiente frente a algoritmos directamente portados a dispositivos móviles. La principal contribución del trabajo es doble: por un lado ofrece algunas guías útiles al desarrollo de algoritmos más eficientes para dispositivos móviles; y por el otro, muestra un algoritmo de cálculo de rutas que funciona con un tiempo de respuesta aceptable, en un entorno exigente, como es el de las aplicaciones de turismo en móviles

Estudios fármaco-genéticos de pacientes con infección por VIH-1 tratados con regimenes antirretrovirales basados en estavudina: asociación de los polimorfismos de la timidilato sintasa con los niveles intracelulares de estavudina trifosfato

L’activitat antiretroviral i la toxicitat de l’estavudina (d4T) depèn del seu metabòlit trifosfat (d4T-TP).Es varen determinar els nivells intracel•lulars de d4T-TP y els polimorfismes dels gens dels enzims la via del folat entre altres la timidilat sintasa (TS), la metilentetrahidrofolat reductasa (MTHFR), .... Els nivells intracel•lulars de d4T als malalts del estudi transversal amb un genotip d’alta expressió del TS van ser de 11.50 fmol/106 cels mentre que per aquells amb un genotip de baixa expressió, van ser de 20.65 (P = 0.0010). Els nivells intracel•lulars de d4T són determinats pels polimorfismes de timidilato sintasa.

Markov chain montecarlo method applied to rounding zeros of compositional data: first approach

As stated in Aitchison (1986), a proper study of relative variation in a compositional data set should be based on logratios, and dealing with logratios excludes dealing with zeros. Nevertheless, it is clear that zero observations might be present in real data sets, either because the corresponding part is completelyabsent –essential zeros– or because it is below detection limit –rounded zeros. Because the second kind of zeros is usually understood as “a trace too small to measure”, it seems reasonable to replace them by a suitable small value, and this has been the traditional approach. As stated, e.g. by Tauber (1999) and byMartín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000), the principal problem in compositional data analysis is related to rounded zeros. One should be careful to use a replacement strategy that does not seriously distort the general structure of the data. In particular, the covariance structure of the involvedparts –and thus the metric properties– should be preserved, as otherwise further analysis on subpopulations could be misleading. Following this point of view, a non-parametric imputation method isintroduced in Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000). This method is analyzed in depth by Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2003) where it is shown that thetheoretical drawbacks of the additive zero replacement method proposed in Aitchison (1986) can be overcome using a new multiplicative approach on the non-zero parts of a composition. The new approachhas reasonable properties from a compositional point of view. In particular, it is “natural” in the sense thatit recovers the “true” composition if replacement values are identical to the missing values, and it is coherent with the basic operations on the simplex. This coherence implies that the covariance structure of subcompositions with no zeros is preserved. As a generalization of the multiplicative replacement, in thesame paper a substitution method for missing values on compositional data sets is introduced

Infraestructura de comunicaciones para algoritmos colaborativos

Este proyecto intenta crear un sistema cliente/servidor de comunicaciones para distintas máquinas paralelas en C++ utilizando WCF como tecnología en el servidor.

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of geophysical data for the purpose of estimating the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties of the vadose zone because of their strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for effective estimation of subsurface van-Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. An important and still unresolved issue, however, is how to best integrate GPR data into a stochastic inversion in order to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first introduce a fully Bayesian inversion called Markov-chain-Monte-carlo (MCMC) strategy to perform the stochastic inversion of steady-state GPR data to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties. Within this study, the choice of the prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data was also investigated. Analysis of both synthetic and field data collected at the Eggborough (UK) site indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when these data are combined with a realistic, informative prior. A subsequent study explore in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically to what extent time-lapse ZOP GPR data, collected during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arrenaes field site (Denmark), can help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties using the MCMC inversion strategy. The findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions. In turn, this significantly improves knowledge of the hydraulic properties, which are required to predict hydraulic behaviour. Finally, another aspect that needed to be addressed involved the comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions (i.e., natural loading and forced infiltration conditions) to estimate the VGM parameters using the MCMC inversion strategy. The results show that for the synthetic example, considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions. When investigating data collected at the Arrenaes field site, further complications arised due to model error and showed the importance of also including a rigorous analysis of the propagation of model error with time and depth when considering time-lapse data. Although the efforts in this thesis were focused on GPR data, the corresponding findings are likely to have general applicability to other types of geophysical data and field environments. Moreover, the obtained results allow to have confidence for future developments in integration of geophysical data with stochastic inversions to improve the characterization of the unsaturated zone but also reveal important issues linked with stochastic inversions, namely model errors, that should definitely be addressed in future research.

Polimorfismos Genéticos do Vegf, Rage, Pon1 e Pon2 na Retinopatia Diabética em Indivíduos com Diabetes Tipo 2

A diabetes mellitus tipo 2 (DM2) é responsável por uma elevada morbilidade e mortalidade em todo o Mundo, essencialmente devido às suas complicações, entre as quais a retinopatia diabética (RD), considerada uma das mais graves, e responsável por 4,8% dos casos de cegueira. Estudos sugerem uma componente genética como um dos principais factores para o desenvolvimento da RD. O gene do VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor) é um dos mais estudados, por promover a angiogénese e a neovascularização. Outro importante gene candidato é o RAGE (receptor for advanced glycation end products), e, mais recentemente, os genes da paraoxonase, PON1 e PON2. Objectivou-se avaliar a influência dos polimorfismos VEGF -634C/G, RAGE -374T/A, PON1Gln192Arg e PON2Cys310Ser no aparecimento e progressão da RD em indivíduos com DM2 e a sua influência no aparecimento da DM2. Analisaram-se 129 indivíduos, 86 com DM2 e 43 indivíduos saudáveis. Os polimorfismos foram avaliados em todos os indivíduos por PCR-FRLP. A caracterização clínica e a determinação da actividade enzimática da PON1 foram avaliadas em 47 diabéticos. Não se obtiveram diferenças para o polimorfismo do VEGF-634 G/C. O alelo A do polimorfismo RAGE -374A/T mostrou-se mais frequente em indivíduos sem RD ou EMD quando comparados com indivíduos com RD ou EMD. O alelo Q (Gln) e o alelo S (Ser) dos polimorfismos PON1Gln192Arg e PON2Cys310Ser, respectivamente, mostraram-se mais frequentes em indivíduos com DM2 quando comparados com indivíduos saudáveis. Não houve quaisquer diferenças relativamente à actividade enzimática da PON1, nem em relação ao polimorfismo da PON1 nem em relação à presença ou ausência de RD ou EMD. Conclui-se que o alelo A do polimorfismo RAGE -374A/T é factor protector para o aparecimento da RD e do EMD, enquanto os alelos Q e S dos polimorfismos PON1Gln192Arg e PON2Cys310Ser, respectivamente, são factores de risco para o aparecimento da DM2

Mass conservative three-dimensional water tracer distribution from Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of time-lapse ground-penetrating radar data

Time-lapse geophysical measurements are widely used to monitor the movement of water and solutes through the subsurface. Yet commonly used deterministic least squares inversions typically suffer from relatively poor mass recovery, spread overestimation, and limited ability to appropriately estimate nonlinear model uncertainty. We describe herein a novel inversion methodology designed to reconstruct the three-dimensional distribution of a tracer anomaly from geophysical data and provide consistent uncertainty estimates using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Posterior sampling is made tractable by using a lower-dimensional model space related both to the Legendre moments of the plume and to predefined morphological constraints. Benchmark results using cross-hole ground-penetrating radar travel times measurements during two synthetic water tracer application experiments involving increasingly complex plume geometries show that the proposed method not only conserves mass but also provides better estimates of plume morphology and posterior model uncertainty than deterministic inversion results.