International Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Countries: National and Global Determinants

This paper examines international capital flows to emerging and developing countries. We assess whether commonalities exist, the permanence of shocks to commonalities and their determinants. Also, we consider individual country coherence with global capital flows and we measure the extent of co-movements in the volatility of capital flows. Our results suggest there are commonalities in capital inflows, although aggregate or disaggregate capital flows respond differently to shocks. We find that the US long run real interest rate is an important determinant of global capital flows, and real commodity prices are relevant but to a lesser extent. We also find a role for human capital in explaining why some countries can successfully ride the wave of financial globalisation.

Comrades or Culprits? Donor Engagement and Budget Transparency in Aid Dependent Countries

Budget transparency has come to be considered a key aspect of governance. Over the past decade, donors have invested increasing resources in strengthening processes through which budget transparency in developing countries can be enhanced. According to the 2008 Open Budget Index (OBI) Report, however, aid dependency and budget transparency appear to be inversely correlated. This article looks at the role of donor agencies in promoting or preventing budget transparency in aid dependent countries. It analyzes data for a sample of 16 aid-dependent countries included in the OBI, to test some preliminary hypotheses and select six countries for which more detailed findings are then presented. All of these countries have implemented reforms aimed at enhancing budget transparency, with substantial donor support. These, however, often had only limited success, partly because they were not well adapted to the local context, and partly because donors put limited emphasis on improving public access to budget information. Donor efforts were also often offset by other characteristics of donor interventions, namely their fragmentation, lack of transparency, and limited use of program aid modalities such as budget support and pooled sector funding.

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

High prevalence of peripheral atherosclerosis in a rapidly developing country.

Cardiovascular disease is rapidly increasing in developing countries experiencing epidemiological transition. We investigated the prevalence of peripheral atherosclerosis in a rapidly developing country and compared our findings with data previously reported in Western populations. A cardiovascular risk factor survey was conducted in 1067 individuals aged 25-64 randomly selected from the general population of Seychelles. High-resolution ultrasonography of the right and left carotid and femoral arteries was performed in a random subgroup of 503 subjects (245 men and 258 women). In each of the four arteries, arterial wall thickness (in plaque-free segments) and atherosclerotic plaques (i.e. focal wall thickening at least 1.0 mm thick) were measured separately. The prevalence of peripheral atherosclerosis was high in this population. For instance, at least one plaque > or =1.0 mm was found in, respectively, 34.9 and 27.5% of men and women aged 25-34 and at least one plaque > or =2.5 mm was found in, respectively, 58.2 and 36.9% of men and women aged 55-64. With reference to data found in the literature, the prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis appeared to be significantly higher in Seychelles than in Western populations. This study provides further evidence for the importance of cardiovascular disease in developing countries. Determinants should be identified and relevant prevention and control programs implemented.

Prevalence of hyperuricemia and relation of serum uric acid with cardiovascular risk factors in a developing country.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of hyperuricemia has rarely been investigated in developing countries. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of hyperuricemia and the association between uric acid levels and the various cardiovascular risk factors in a developing country with high average blood pressures (the Seychelles, Indian Ocean, population mainly of African origin). METHODS: This cross-sectional health examination survey was based on a population random sample from the Seychelles. It included 1011 subjects aged 25 to 64 years. Blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, total and HDL cholesterol, serum triglycerides and serum uric acid were measured. Data were analyzed using scatterplot smoothing techniques and gender-specific linear regression models. RESULTS: The prevalence of a serum uric acid level >420 micromol/L in men was 35.2% and the prevalence of a serum uric acid level >360 micromol/L was 8.7% in women. Serum uric acid was strongly related to serum triglycerides in men as well as in women (r = 0.73 in men and r = 0.59 in women, p < 0.001). Uric acid levels were also significantly associated but to a lesser degree with age, BMI, blood pressure, alcohol and the use of antihypertensive therapy. In a regression model, triglycerides, age, BMI, antihypertensive therapy and alcohol consumption accounted for about 50% (R2) of the serum uric acid variations in men as well as in women. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the prevalence of hyperuricemia can be high in a developing country such as the Seychelles. Besides alcohol consumption and the use of antihypertensive therapy, mainly diuretics, serum uric acid is markedly associated with parameters of the metabolic syndrome, in particular serum triglycerides. Considering the growing incidence of obesity and metabolic syndrome worldwide and the potential link between hyperuricemia and cardiovascular complications, more emphasis should be put on the evolving prevalence of hyperuricemia in developing countries.

A two-week workshop to promote cardiovascular disease prevention programs in countries with limited resources.

Training is a crucial tool for building the capacity necessary for prevention and control of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in developing countries. This paper summarizes some features of a 2-week workshop aimed at enabling local health professionals to initiate a comprehensive CVD prevention and control program in a context of limited resources. The workshops have been organized in the regions where CVD prevention programs are being contemplated, in cooperation with health authorities of the concerned regions. The workshop's content includes a broad variety of issues related to CVD prevention and control, and to program development. Strong emphasis is placed on "learning by doing," and groups of 5-6 participants conduct a small-scale epidemiological study during the first week; during the second week, they draft a virtual program of CVD prevention and control adapted to the local situation. This practice-oriented workshop focuses on building expertise among anticipated key players, strengthening networks among relevant health professionals, and advocating the urgent need to tackle the emerging CVD epidemic in developing countries.

Prospective association of the SHARE-operationalized frailty phenotype with adverse health outcomes: evidence from 60+ community-dwelling Europeans living in 11 countries.

BACKGROUND: Among the many definitions of frailty, the frailty phenotype defined by Fried et al. is one of few constructs that has been repeatedly validated: first in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and subsequently in other large cohorts in the North America. In Europe, the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) is a gold mine of individual, economic and health information that can provide insight into better understanding of frailty across diverse population settings. A recent adaptation of the original five CHS-frailty criteria was proposed to make use of SHARE data and measure frailty in the European population. To test the validity of the SHARE operationalized frailty phenotype, this study aims to evaluate its prospective association with adverse health outcomes. METHODS: Data are from 11,015 community-dwelling men and women aged 60+ participating in wave 1 and 2 of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe, a population-based survey. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the 2-year follow up effect of SHARE-operationalized frailty phenotype on the incidence of disability (disability-free at baseline) and on worsening disability and morbidity, adjusting for age, sex, income and baseline morbidity and disability. RESULTS: At 2-year follow up, frail individuals were at increased risk for: developing mobility (OR 3.07, 95% CI, 1.02-9.36), IADL (OR 5.52, 95% CI, 3.76-8.10) and BADL (OR 5.13, 95% CI, 3.53-7.44) disability; worsening mobility (OR 2.94, 95% CI, 2.19- 3.93) IADL (OR 4.43, 95% CI, 3.19-6.15) and BADL disability (OR 4.53, 95% CI, 3.14-6.54); and worsening morbidity (OR 1.77, 95% CI, 1.35-2.32). These associations were significant even among the prefrail, but with a lower magnitude of effect. CONCLUSIONS: The SHARE-operationalized frailty phenotype is significantly associated with all tested health outcomes independent of baseline morbidity and disability in community-dwelling men and women aged 60 and older living in Europe. The robustness of results validate the use of this phenotype in the SHARE survey for future research on frailty in Europe.

An international university network for online teaching of pathology in Frenchspeaking countries

Introduction: Building online courses is a highly time consuming task for teachers of a single university. Universities working alone create high-quality courses but often cannot cover all pathological fields. Moreover this often leads to duplication of contents among universities, representing a big waste of teacher time and energy. We initiated in 2011 a French university network for building mutualized online teaching pathology cases, and this network has been extended in 2012 to Quebec and Switzerland. Method: Twenty French universities (see & for details), University Laval in Quebec and University of Lausanne in Switzerland are associated to this project. One e-learning Moodle platform (http://moodle.sorbonne-paris-cite.fr/) contains texts with URL pointing toward virtual slides that are decentralized in several universities. Each university has the responsibility of its own slide scanning, slide storage and online display with virtual slide viewers. The Moodle website is hosted by PRES Sorbonne Paris Cité, and financial supports for hardware have been obtained from UNF3S (http://www.unf3s.org/) and from PRES Sorbonne Paris Cité. Financial support for international fellowships has been obtained from CFQCU (http://www.cfqcu.org/). Results: The Moodle interface has been explained to pathology teachers using web-based conferences with screen sharing. The teachers added then contents such as clinical cases, selfevaluations and other media organized in several sections by student levels and pathological fields. Contents can be used as online learning or online preparation of subsequent courses in classrooms. In autumn 2013, one resident from Quebec spent 6 weeks in France and Switzerland and created original contents in inflammatory skin pathology. These contents are currently being validated by senior teachers and will be opened to pathology residents in spring 2014. All contents of the website can be accessed for free. Most contents just require anonymous connection but some specific fields, especially those containing pictures obtained from patients who agreed for a teaching use only, require personal identification of the students. Also, students have to register to access Moodle tests. All contents are written in French but one case has been translated into English to illustrate this communication (http://moodle.sorbonne-pariscite.fr/mod/page/view.php?id=261) (use "login as a guest"). The Moodle test module allows many types of shared questions, making it easy to create personalized tests. Contents that are opened to students have been validated by an editorial committee composed of colleagues from the participating institutions. Conclusions: Future developments include other international fellowships, the next one being scheduled for one French resident from May to October 2014 in Quebec, with a study program centered on lung and breast pathology. It must be kept in mind that these e-learning programs highly depend on teachers' time, not only at these early steps but also later to update the contents. We believe that funding resident fellowships for developing online pathological teaching contents is a win-win situation, highly beneficial for the resident who will improve his knowledge and way of thinking, highly beneficial for the teachers who will less worry about access rights or image formats, and finally highly beneficial for the students who will get courses fully adapted to their practice.

Comparisons of intensity-duration patterns of physical activity in the US, Jamaica and 3 African countries.

BACKGROUND: This difference in how populations living in low-, middle or upper-income countries accumulate daily PA, i.e. patterns and intensity, is an important part in addressing the global PA movement. We sought to characterize objective PA in 2,500 participants spanning the epidemiologic transition. The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a longitudinal study, in 5 countries. METS seeks to define the association between physical activity (PA), obesity and CVD risk in populations of African origin: Ghana (GH), South Africa (SA), Seychelles (SEY), Jamaica (JA) and the US (suburban Chicago). METHODS: Baseline measurements of objective PA, SES, anthropometrics and body composition, were completed on 2,500 men and women, aged 25-45 years. Moderate and vigorous PA (MVPA, min/d) on week and weekend days was explored ecologically, by adiposity status and manual labor. RESULTS: Among the men, obesity prevalence reflected the level of economic transition and was lowest in GH (1.7%) and SA (4.8%) and highest in the US (41%). SA (55%) and US (65%) women had the highest levels of obesity, compared to only 16% in GH. More men and women in developing countries engaged in manual labor and this was reflected by an almost doubling of measured MPVA among the men in GH (45 min/d) and SA (47 min/d) compared to only 28 min/d in the US. Women in GH (25 min/d), SA (21 min/d), JA (20 min/d) and SEY (20 min/d) accumulated significantly more MPVA than women in the US (14 min/d), yet this difference was not reflected by differences in BMI between SA, JA, SEY and US. Moderate PA constituted the bulk of the PA, with no study populations except SA men accumulating > 5 min/d of vigorous PA. Among the women, no sites accumulated >2 min/d of vigorous PA. Overweight/obese men were 22% less likely to engage in manual occupations. CONCLUSION: While there is some association for PA with obesity, this relationship is inconsistent across the epidemiologic transition and suggests that PA policy recommendations should be tailored for each environment.

Regional determinants of firm entry in a developing country

We analyse the determinants of firm entry in developing countries using Argentina as an illustrative case. Our main finding is that although most of the regional determinants used in previous studies analysing developed countries are also relevant here, there is a need for additional explanatory variables that proxy for the specificities of developing economies (e.g., poverty, informal economy and idle capacity).We also find evidence of a core-periphery pattern in the spatial structure of entry that seems to be mostly driven by differences in agglomeration economies. Since regional policies aiming to attract new firms are largely based on evidence from developed countries, our results raise doubts about the usefulness of such policies when applied to developing economies. JEL classification: R12, R30, C33. Key words: Firm entry, Argentina, count data models.

Pass-through in dollarized countries: should Ecuador abandon the U.S. Dollar?

In this article we examine the convenience of dollarization for Ecuador today. As Ecuador is strongly integrated financially and commercially with the United States, the exchange rate pass-through should be zero. However, we sustain that rising rates of imports from trade partners other than the United States and subsequent real effective exchange rate depreciations are causing the pass-through to move away from zero. Here, in the framework of the Vector Error Correction Model, we analyse the impulse response function and variance decomposition of the inflation variable. We show that the developing economy of Ecuador is importing inflation from its main trading partners, most of them emerging countries with appreciated currencies. We argue that if Ecuador recovered both its monetary and exchange rate instruments it would be able to fight against inflation. We believe such an analysis could be extended to other countries with pegged exchange rate regimes.

The association between obesity and back pain in nine countries: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: The association between obesity and back pain has mainly been studied in high-income settings with inconclusive results, and data from older populations and developing countries are scarce. The aim of this study was to assess this association in nine countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America among older adults using nationally-representative data. METHODS: Data on 42116 individuals ≥50 years who participated in the Collaborative Research on Ageing in Europe (COURAGE) study conducted in Finland, Poland, and Spain in 2011-2012, and the World Health Organization's Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) conducted in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa in 2007-2010 were analysed. Information on measured height and weight available in the two datasets was used to calculate Body Mass Index (BMI). Self-reported back pain occurring in the past 30 days was the outcome. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between BMI and back pain. RESULTS: The prevalence of back pain ranged from 21.5% (China) to 57.5% (Poland). In the multivariable analysis, compared to BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m(2), significantly higher odds for back pain were observed for BMI ≥35 kg/m(2) in Finland (OR 3.33), Russia (OR 2.20), Poland (OR 2.03), Spain (OR 1.56), and South Africa (OR 1.48); BMI 30.0-34.0 kg/m(2) in Russia (OR 2.76), South Africa (OR 1.51), and Poland (OR 1.47); and BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m(2) in Russia (OR 1.51) and Poland (OR 1.40). No significant associations were found in the other countries. CONCLUSIONS: The strength of the association between obesity and back pain may vary by country. Future studies are needed to determine the factors contributing to differences in the associations observed.

Serum antigliadin antibody levels as a screening criterion before jejunal biopsy indication for celiac disease in a developing country

The objective of the present study was to determine the efficacy of detection of antigliadin immunoglobulins G and A (IgG and IgA) for the diagnosis of celiac disease in a developing country, since other enteropathies might alter the levels of these antibodies. Three groups were studied: 22 patients with celiac disease (mean age: 30.6 months), 61 patients with other enteropathies (mean age: 43.3 months), and 46 patients without enteropathies (mean age: 96.9 months). Antigliadin IgG and IgA ELISA showed sensitivity of 90.9 and 95.5%, respectively. With the hypothetical values of prevalence ranging from 1:500 to 1:2000 liveborns, the positive predictive value varied from 8.5 to 2.3% for IgG and from 4.8 to 1.1% for IgA. Considering the patients without enteropathies, specificity was 97.8 and 95.7% for IgG and IgA, respectively. In patients with other enteropathies, specificity was 82.0 and 84.1%, respectively. When patients with and without other enteropathies were considered as a whole, specificity was 88.8 and 91.6%, respectively. The specificity of positive IgG or IgA was 93.5% in children without enteropathies and 78.7% in the presence of other enteropathies. The negative predictive value for hypothetical prevalences varying from 1:500 to 1:2000 liveborns was 99.9%. Thus, even in developing countries where the prevalence of non-celiac enteropathies is high, the determination of serum antigliadin antibody levels is a useful screening test prior to the jejunal biopsy in the investigation of intestinal malabsorption.

Finance and Growth : Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries, 1960-1990

This paper examines the empirical relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth using cross-country and panel data regressions for 69 developing countries for the 1960-1990 period. The main results are : (i) financial development is a significant determinant of economic growth, as it has been shown in cross-sectional regressions; (ii) financial markets cease to exert any effect on real activity when the temporal dimension is introduced in the regressions. The paradox may be explained, in the case of developing countries, by the lack of an entrepreneurial private sector capable to transform the available funds into profitable projects; (iii) the effect of financial development on economic growth is channeled mainly through an increase in investment efficiency.

Who has responsibility for access to essential medical drugs in the developing world?

L’accès aux traitements de base est un enjeu crucial pour la santé, la pauvreté et le développement. La responsabilité en matière d’accès est alors une question essentielle. Le huitième Objectif du Millénaire pour le Développement postule qu’en coopération avec les firmes pharmaceutiques, l’accès aux traitements essentiels doit être assuré. Les principales parties prenantes qui doivent engager leur responsabilité pour l’accès aux médicaments sont (1) l’industrie pharmaceutique, (2) les gouvernements, (3) la société au sens large, et (4) les individus (qu’ils soient ou non malades). Quatre approches permettent d’appréhender la responsabilité: (a) l’approche déontologique; (b) l’utilitarisme; (c) l’égalitarisme; (b) l’approche basée sur les droits de l’homme. Ces quatre arguments peuvent être utilisés pour assigner une responsabilité aux gouvernements dans l’accès aux médicaments. Le papier conclut qu’il est parfois difficile de distinguer entre ces quatre approches et qu’un « glissement-d’échelle » de la responsabilité est une voie utile pour appréhender les rôles des quatre principales parties prenantes dans l’accès aux médicaments, dépendant du pays ou de la région et de son environnement interne.