Testing of crop Models for Accurate Predictions of Evapotranspiration and crop Water Use

All crop models, whether site-specific or global-gridded and regardless of crop, simulate daily crop transpiration and soil evaporation during the crop life cycle, resulting in seasonal crop water use. Modelers use several methods for predicting daily potential evapotranspiration (ET), including FAO-56, Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor, Hargreaves, full energy balance, and transpiration water efficiency. They use extinction equations to partition energy to soil evaporation or transpiration, depending on leaf area index. Most models simulate soil water balance and soil-root water supply for transpiration, and limit transpiration if water uptake is insufficient, and thereafter reduce dry matter production. Comparisons among multiple crop and global gridded models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) show surprisingly large differences in simulated ET and crop water use for the same climatic conditions. Model intercomparisons alone are not enough to know which approaches are correct. There is an urgent need to test these models against field-observed data on ET and crop water use. It is important to test various ET modules/equations in a model platform where other aspects such as soil water balance and rooting are held constant, to avoid compensation caused by other parts of models. The CSM-CROPGRO model in DSSAT already has ET equations for Priestley-Taylor, Penman-FAO-24, Penman-Monteith-FAO-56, and an hourly energy balance approach. In this work, we added transpiration-efficiency modules to DSSAT and AgMaize models and tested the various ET equations against available data on ET, soil water balance, and season-long crop water use of soybean, fababean, maize, and other crops where runoff and deep percolation were known or zero. The different ET modules created considerable differences in predicted ET, growth, and yield.

Respuestas anatómico fisiológicas frente a estrés hídrico en plantaciones de especies de crecimiento rápido para la producción de biomasa

El objetivo general de la presente Tesis es identificar algunas de las características anatómico-fisiológicas que confieren la capacidad de alcanzar una mejor productividad bajo clima mediterráneo a plantas de diversos genotipos de los géneros Populus y Eucalyptus, caracterizados por su carácter pionero, elevado crecimiento y vulnerabilidad a la cavitación. En los dos primeros capítulos se hace un seguimiento de la conductancia estomática a una selección de clones de eucalipto cultivados en invernadero, sometidos a diferentes dotaciones hídricas. Se realizaron además mediciones periódicas del pH de la savia del tallo y de la pérdida de conductividad hidráulica para investigar su implicación en la regulación química e hidraúlica del cierre estomático. Las variaciones en el pH de la savia obtenidas parecen responder a cambios en el déficit de presión de vapor de agua atmosférico y no a diferencias en la disponibilidad de agua en el suelo. La conductancia estomática presentó una correlación positiva significativa con el pH de la savia, pero no con la conductividad hidráulica. La variabilidad de la conductividad hidráulica máxima se discute a la luz de recientes investigaciones sobre los materiales constituyentes de las membranas de las punteaduras. Los clones que mostraron mayores conductancias hidráulicas y estomáticas presentaron valores más altos de producción y supervivencia, poniendo de manifiesto la utilidad del estudio de estas variables. Por el contrario, los valores más bajos de conductancia estomática e hidraúlica se encontraron en clones que han resultado un fracaso en plantaciones comerciales, en particular, fue destacable el mal resultado de un clon procedente de autocruzamiento respecto de otros híbridos. En el tercer capítulo de la tesis se estudian características anatómicas y funcionales del xilema relacionadas con la eficiencia en el transporte de agua a las hojas, y que pueden afectar directa o indirectamente a la transpiración y al crecimiento. Los estudios anatómicos fueron realizados sobre brotes anuales de chopo en una plantación situada en Granada, en condiciones de riego limitante. La combinación de rasgos anatómicos más favorable de cara a la producción de biomasa fue una densidad alta de vasos de diámetro intermedio. Los clones más productivos figuraron entre los más resistentes a la cavitación. Para estudiar el crecimiento de masas arboladas se utilizan frecuentemente parámetros fisiológicos como el índice de area foliar (LAI). La estimación del LAI a partir de fotografías hemisféricas aplicada a tallares de chopo plantados a alta densidad y a turno corto para biomasa se lleva a cabo mediante una metodología reciente empleada y discutida en el cuarto capítulo de la Tesis. Los resultados muestran que las diferencias de producción existentes entre genotipos, localidades de medición con diferentes dosis de riego, y años, pueden predecirse a partir de la determinación del índice de área foliar tanto por métodos directos como indirectos de estimación. Tanto los estudios realizados en eucalipto como en chopo han mostrado que los genotipos con menores producciones de biomasa en campo alcanzaron los menores valores de conductancia estomática en las condiciones más favorables así como el menor número de vasos en el xilema. La estrecha relación entre crecimiento y LAI confirma una vez más la importancia del desarrollo de la copa para sostener un buen crecimiento. El mayor desarrollo de la copa y rendimiento en biomasa se midieron en uno de los clones con un número de vasos más elevado, y menor vulnerabilidad a la cavitación en condiciones de estrés. Estos resultados ponen de manifiesto la importancia de las características anatómicas y funcionales del xilema como condicionantes del patrón de crecimiento de las plantas y el comportamiento de los estomas. ABSTRACT A number of anatomical xylem traits and physiological variables were analyzed in genotypes of both the Populus and Eucalyptus genera with the main aim of identifying traits in the genotypes which confer the ability to produce an acceptable biomass yield under Mediterranean climatic conditions. In the first two chapters of this PhD, the results of two experiments carried out on several clones of the species Eucalyptus globulus Labill. are presented. Chapters three and four include the results of another two trials on four poplar hybrid genotypes. One of the initial plant responses to water stress is stomatal closure, which can be triggered by hydraulic and/or chemical signals. The two first chapters of this PhD deal with trials in which stomatal conductance and percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity were monitored on a set of eucalyptus clones supplied by ENCE (former National Cellulose Company) and currently used in the company’s own commercial plantings. The experimental trials were carried out in greenhouses and the plants were submitted to two different watering regimes. The pH of the stem sap was periodically measured as the greenhouse temperature and humidity changed. The aim of these measurements was to investigate the role of both sap pH and percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity on stomatal regulation. The results obtained suggest that changes in sap pH are a response to vapor pressure deficit changes rather than to differences in soil water availability. We found significant correlation between stomatal conductance and sap pH, although no significant relationship was found between stomatal conductance and hydraulic conductivity. Variability in maximum hydraulic conductivity is discussed based on recent pit membrane constituent research. The study of hydraulic conductivity proved helpful in order to detect the clones with both higher growth and greater chance of survival, since clones displaying the lowest hydraulic conductivities were those that failed in commercial plantings. Anatomical xylem traits define the water transport efficiency to leaves and can therefore limit transpiration and growth. The third chapter of this PhD addresses anatomical xylem traits in poplar. One year old stem samples were taken from a water-stressed trial in Granada. The anatomical xylem study proved useful for detecting the lowest yielding genotypes. Clones with intermediate vessel size and high vessel densities were found to be those with the highest biomass yield. Differences in cavitation resistance depending on the clone tested and the water treatment applied were also found. The clones with the highest biomass yield were found to be among the most cavitation resistant clones in each watering regime. Xylem and physiological traits along with stomatal behavior are useful tools to determine plant growth. In order to study plantings or forests, it is more common to employ other physiological variables such as leaf area index (LAI). LAI estimation from hemispherical photographs applied to short rotation woody crops is a recently developed method that still requires fine tuning through further investigation. In the fourth chapter, data from LAI monitoring over two consecutive years were analyzed in two different locations where different irrigation treatments were applied. The results showed that differences in yield between genotypes, different irrigation regimes and years could be predicted by using the LAI estimates, either through direct or indirect estimation methods. Our studies of poplar and eucalyptus have shown that the field-grown genotypes with the lowest biomass yield displayed the lowest values of stomatal conductance under the most favorable environmental conditions and also had a low number of xylem conduits. The close relationship between LAI and growth highlights the importance of crown development in biomass growth. The highest LAI and biomass yield were recorded in one of the clones with higher vessel density and the lowest vulnerability to cavitation under stress conditions. These results underline the importance of research into anatomical and functional traits as factors influencing plant growth patterns and stomatal behavior.

A common-sense climate index: Is climate changing noticeably?

We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than “business-as-usual” scenarios.

Tree rings, carbon dioxide, and climatic change

Tree rings have been used in various applications to reconstruct past climates as well as to assess the effects of recent climatic and environmental change on tree growth. In this paper we briefly review two ways that tree rings provide information about climate change and CO2: (i) in determining whether recent warming during the period of instrumental observations is unusual relative to prior centuries to millennia, and thus might be related to increasing greenhouse gases; and (ii) in evaluating whether enhanced radial growth has taken place in recent decades that appears to be unexplained by climate and might instead be due to increasing atmospheric CO2 or other nutrient fertilization. It is found that a number of tree-ring studies from temperature-sensitive settings indicate unusual recent warming, although there are also exceptions at certain sites. The present tree-ring evidence for a possible CO2 fertilization effect under natural environmental conditions appears to be very limited.

Evidence for a circulating islet cell growth factor in insulin-resistant states

Insulin resistance is a feature of many common disorders including obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In these disorders, the β-cells compensate for the insulin resistance for long periods of time with an increase in secretory capacity, an increase in β-cell mass, or both. To determine whether the β-cell response might relate to a circulating growth factor, we have transplanted normal islets under the kidney capsule of normoglycemic insulin-resistant mice with two different models of insulin resistance: lean mice that have a double heterozygous deletion of the insulin receptor and insulin receptor substrate-1 (DH) or the obese, hyperglycemic ob/ob mice. In the grafts transplanted into both hosts, there was a marked increase in β-cell mitotic activity and islet mass that was comparable with that observed in the endogenous pancreas. By contrast, islets of the DH mouse transplanted into normal mice showed reduced mitotic index. These data suggest the insulin resistance is associated with a circulating islet cell growth factor that is independent of glucose and obesity.

Antiangiogenic therapy of transgenic mice impairs de novo tumor growth.

Angiogenesis is activated during multistage tumorigenesis prior to the emergence of solid tumors. Using a transgenic mouse model, we have tested the proposition that treatment with angiogenesis inhibitors can inhibit the progression of tumorigenesis after the switch to the angiogenic phenotype. In this model, islet cell carcinomas develop from multifocal, hyperproliferative nodules that show the histological hallmarks of human carcinoma in situ. Mice were treated with a combination of the angiogenesis inhibitor AGM-1470 (TNP-470), the antibiotic minocycline, and interferon alpha/beta. The treatment regimen markedly attenuated tumor growth but did not prevent tumor formation; tumor volume was reduced to 11% and capillary density to 40% of controls. The proliferation index of tumor cells in treated and control mice was similar, whereas the apoptotic index was doubled in treated tumors. This study shows that de novo tumor progression can be restricted solely by antiangiogenic therapy. The results suggest that angiogenesis inhibitors represent a valid component of anticancer strategies aimed at progression from discrete stages of tumorigenesis and demonstrate that transgenic mouse models can be used to evaluate efficacy of candidate antiangiogenic agents.

Cardioprotective effect of insulin-like growth factor I in myocardial ischemia followed by reperfusion.

In the present study, the cardioprotective effects of insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) were examined in a murine model of myocardial ischemia reperfusion (i.e., 20 min + 24 hr). IGF-I (1-10 micrograms per rat) administered 1 hr prior to ischemia significantly attenuated myocardial injury (i.e., creatine kinase loss) compared to vehicle (P < 0.001). In addition, cardiac myeloperoxidase activity, an index of neutrophil accumulation, in the ischemic area was significantly attenuated by IGF-I (P < 0.001). This protective effect of IGF-I was not observed with des-(1-3)-IGF-I. Immunohistochemical analysis of ischemic-reperfused myocardial tissue demonstrated markedly increased DNA fragmentation due to programmed cell death (i.e., apoptosis) compared to nonischemic myocardium. Furthermore, IGF-I significantly attenuated the incidence of myocyte apoptosis after myocardial ischemia and reperfusion. Therefore, IGF-I appears to be an effective agent for preserving ischemic myocardium from reperfusion injury and protects via two different mechanisms--inhibition of polymorphonuclear leukocyte-induced cardiac necrosis and inhibition of reperfusion-induced apoptosis of cardiac myocytes.

Smoothed bootstrap Malmquist index based on DEA model to compute productivity of tax offices

This paper analyses the productivity growth of the SUMA tax offices located in Spain evolved between 2004 and 2006 by using Malmquist Index based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models. It goes a step forward by smoothed bootstrap procedure which improves the quality of the results by generalising the samples, so that the conclusions obtained from them can be applied in order to increase productivity levels. Additionally, the productivity effect is divided into two different components, efficiency and technological change, with the objective of helping to clarify the role played by either the managers or the level of technology in the final performance figures.

Missing Rings in Pinus halepensis – The Missing Link to Relate the Tree-Ring Record to Extreme Climatic Events

Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, this division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may cease during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same calendar year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR). A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites, 1,509 trees, 2,593 cores, and 225,428 tree rings throughout the distribution range of the species. A total of 4,150 MR were identified. Binomial logistic regression analysis determined that MR frequency increased with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Dendroclimatic regression analysis indicated a non-linear relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature. MR are strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature from previous October till current February and total precipitation from previous September till current May. They are likely to occur with total precipitation lower than 50 mm and temperatures higher than 5°C. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a complication for dendrochronology, MR formation is a fundamental response of trees to adverse environmental conditions. The demonstrated relationship of MR formation to ECE across this dendrochronological network in the Mediterranean basin shows the potential of MR analysis to reconstruct the history of past climatic extremes and to predict future forest dynamics in a changing climate.

Measuring firm innovativeness: towards a composite innovation index built on firm innovative posture, propensity and performance attributes. ACES Working Paper No. 12, 2008

The ability to innovate is generally accepted as a critical success factor to growth and future performance of firms. Yet, this acceptance obscures a comprehensive perspective on how firms can influence their innovation capacity and resulting performance. This paper proposes a '3P' construct of innovation measurement that simultaneously considers the Posture, Propensity and Performance related to a firm's innovation capabilities. We propose and provide empirical support showing that robust measurement of the performance implications of innovation requires the consideration of input, throughput and output factors simultaneously. Single or more limited indicators do not offer the degree of fine-tuning to a firm's innovation system that managers require. Thus, we propose the development, and future research into contingent variations, of a Composite Innovation Index (CII). We further demonstrate its use in comparing innovators and allowing managers to design a firm's innovation system.

(Table 8.4, Page 220-223) Chemical composition of different growth structures of manganese nodules, SONNE cruise SO78

In the nodule field of the Peru Basin, situated south of the zone of high bioproductivity, a relatively high flux of biogenic matter explains a distinct redox boundary at about 10 cm depth separating very soft oxic surface sediments from stiffer suboxic sediments. Maximum abundance (50 kg/m**2) of diagenetic nodules is found near the calcite compensation depth (CCD), currently at 4250 m. There, the accretion rate of nodules is much higher (100 mm/Ma) than on ridges (5 mm/Ma). Highest accretion rates are found at the bottom of large nodules that repeatedly sink to a level immediately above the redox boundary. There, distinct diagenetic growth conditions prevail and layers of dense laminated Mn oxide of very pure todorokite are formed. The layering of nodules is mainly the result of organisms moving nodules within the oxic surface sediment from diagenetic to hydrogenetic environments. The frequency of such movements is much higher than that of climatic changes. Two types of nodule burial occur in the Peru Basin. Large nodules are less easily moved by organisms and become buried. Consequently, buried nodules generally are larger than surface nodules. This type of burial predominates in basins. At ridges where smaller nodules prevail, burial is mainly controlled by statistical selection where some nodules are not moved up by organisms.

Evolution of thermokarst in East Siberian ice-rich permafrost

Thermokarst lakes and basins are major components of ice-rich permafrost landscapes in East Siberian coastal lowlands and are regarded as indicators of regional climatic changes. We investigate the temporal and spatial dynamics of a 7.5 km**2, partly drained thermokarst basin (alas) using field investigations, remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and sediment analyses. The evolution of the thermokarst basin proceeded in two phases. The first phase started at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition (13 to 12 ka BP) with the initiation of a primary thermokarst lake on the Ice Complex surface. The lake expanded and persisted throughout the early Holocene before it drained abruptly about 5.7 ka BP, thereby creating a > 20 m deep alas with residual lakes. The second phase (5.7 ka BP to present) is characterized by alternating stages of lower and higher thermokarst intensity within the alas that were mainly controlled by local hydrological and relief conditions and accompanied by permafrost aggradation and degradation. It included diverse concurrent processes like lake expansion and stepwise drainage, polygonal ice-wedge growth, and the formation of drainage channels and a pingo, which occurred in different parts of the alas. This more dynamic thermokarst evolution resulted in a complex modern thermokarst landscape. However, on the regional scale, the changes during the second evolutionary phase after drainage of the initial thermokarst lakes were less intense than the early Holocene extensive thermokarst development in East Siberian coastal lowlands as a result of a significant regional change to warmer and wetter climate conditions.

The North Sea autumn spawning Herring (Clupea harengus L.) Spawning Component Abundance Index (SCAI)

The North Sea autumn-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) stock consists of a set of different spawning components. The dynamics of the entire stock have been well characterized, but although time-series of larval abundance indices are available for the individual components, study of the dynamics at the component level has historically been hampered by missing observations and high sampling noise. A simple state-space statistical model is developed that is robust to these problems, gives a good fit to the data, and proves capable of both handling and predicting missing observations well. Furthermore, the sum of the fitted abundance indices across all components proves an excellent proxy for the biomass of the total stock, even though the model utilizes information at the individual-component level. The Orkney-Shetland component appears to have recovered faster from historic depletion events than the other components, whereas the Downs component has been the slowest. These differences give rise to changes in stock composition, which are shown to vary widely within a relatively short time. The modelling framework provides a valuable tool for studying and monitoring the dynamics of the individual components of the North Sea herring stock.

Fibroblast growth factor 23 and markers of mineral metabolism in individuals with preserved renal function

Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is a bone-derived hormone that regulates phosphate homeostasis. Circulating FGF23 is elevated in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and independently associated with poor renal and cardiovascular outcomes and mortality. Because the study of FGF23 in individuals with normal renal function has received little attention, we examined in a large, population based study of 1128 participants the associations of FGF23 with markers of mineral metabolism and renal function. The median estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of the cohort was 105 ml/min per 1.73 m2, and the median plasma FGF23 was 78.5 RU/ml. FGF23 increased and plasma 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 decreased significantly below an eGFR threshold of 102 and 99 ml/min per 1.73 m2, respectively. In contrast, plasma parathyroid hormone increased continuously with decreasing eGFR and was first significantly elevated at an eGFR of 126 ml/min per 1.73 m2. On multivariable analysis adjusting for sex, age, body mass index, and GFR, FGF23 was negatively associated with 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3, and urinary absolute and fractional calcium excretion but not with serum calcium or parathyroid hormone. We found a positive association of FGF23 with plasma phosphate, but no association with urinary absolute or fractional phosphate excretion and, unexpectedly, a positive association with tubular maximum phosphate reabsorption/GFR. Thus, in the absence of CKD, parathyroid hormone increases earlier than FGF23 when the eGFR decreases. The increase in FGF23 occurs at a higher eGFR threshold than previously reported and is closely associated with a decrease in 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3. We speculate that the main demonstrable effect of FGF23 in the setting of preserved renal function is suppression of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 rather than stimulation of renal phosphate excretion.