846 resultados para C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications


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There is almost not a case in exploration geology, where the studied data doesn’tincludes below detection limits and/or zero values, and since most of the geological dataresponds to lognormal distributions, these “zero data” represent a mathematicalchallenge for the interpretation.We need to start by recognizing that there are zero values in geology. For example theamount of quartz in a foyaite (nepheline syenite) is zero, since quartz cannot co-existswith nepheline. Another common essential zero is a North azimuth, however we canalways change that zero for the value of 360°. These are known as “Essential zeros”, butwhat can we do with “Rounded zeros” that are the result of below the detection limit ofthe equipment?Amalgamation, e.g. adding Na2O and K2O, as total alkalis is a solution, but sometimeswe need to differentiate between a sodic and a potassic alteration. Pre-classification intogroups requires a good knowledge of the distribution of the data and the geochemicalcharacteristics of the groups which is not always available. Considering the zero valuesequal to the limit of detection of the used equipment will generate spuriousdistributions, especially in ternary diagrams. Same situation will occur if we replace thezero values by a small amount using non-parametric or parametric techniques(imputation).The method that we are proposing takes into consideration the well known relationshipsbetween some elements. For example, in copper porphyry deposits, there is always agood direct correlation between the copper values and the molybdenum ones, but whilecopper will always be above the limit of detection, many of the molybdenum values willbe “rounded zeros”. So, we will take the lower quartile of the real molybdenum valuesand establish a regression equation with copper, and then we will estimate the“rounded” zero values of molybdenum by their corresponding copper values.The method could be applied to any type of data, provided we establish first theircorrelation dependency.One of the main advantages of this method is that we do not obtain a fixed value for the“rounded zeros”, but one that depends on the value of the other variable.Key words: compositional data analysis, treatment of zeros, essential zeros, roundedzeros, correlation dependency

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Abstract :This article examines the interplay of text and image in The Fairy Tales of Charles Perrault (1977), translated by Angela Carter and illustrated by Martin Ware, as a form of intersemiotic dialogue that sheds new light on Carter's work. It argues that Ware's highly original artwork based on the translation not only calls into question the association of fairy tales with children's literature (which still characterizes Carter's translation), but also captures an essential if heretofore neglected aspect of Carter's creative process, namely the dynamics between translating, illustrating and rewriting classic tales. Several elements from Ware's illustrations are indeed taken up and elaborated on in The Bloody Chamber and Other Stories (1979), the collection of "stories about fairy stories" that made Carter famous. These include visual details and strategies that she transposed to the realm of writing, giving rise to reflections on the relation between visuality and textuality.RésuméCet article considère l'interaction du texte et de l'image dans les contes de Perrault traduits par Angela Carter et illustrés par Martin Ware (The Fairy Tales of Charles Perrault, 1977) comme une forme de dialogue intersémiotique particulièrement productif. Il démontre que les illustrations originales de Ware ne mettent pas seulement en question l'assimilation des contes à la littérature de jeunesse (qui est encore la perspective adoptée par la traductrice dans ce livre), mais permettent aussi de saisir un aspect essentiel bien que jusque là ignoré du procession de création dans l'oeuvre de Carter, à savoir la dynamique qui lie la traduction, l'illustration et la réécriture des contes classiques. Plusieurs éléments des illustrations de Ware sont ainsi repris et élaborés dans The Bloody Chamber and Other Stories (1979), la collection de "stories about fairy stories" qui rendit Carter célèbre. La transposition de détails et de stratégies visuelles dans l'écriture donnent ainsi l'occasion de réflexions sur les rapports entre la visualité et la textualité.

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BACKGROUND: Studies about beverage preferences in a country in which wine drinking is relatively widespread (like Switzerland) are scarce. Therefore, the main aims of the present study were to examine the associations between beverage preferences and drinking patterns, alcohol-related consequences and the use of other substances among Swiss young men. METHODS: The analytical sample consisted of 5399 Swiss men who participated in the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) and had been drinking alcohol over the preceding 12 months. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to study the associations between preference for a particular beverage and (i) drinking patterns, (ii) negative alcohol-related consequences and (iii) the (at-risk) use of cigarettes, cannabis and other illicit drugs. RESULTS: Preference for beer was associated with risky drinking patterns and, comparable with a preference for strong alcohol, with the use of illicit substances (cannabis and other illicit drugs). In contrast, a preference for wine was associated with low-risk alcohol consumption and a reduced likelihood of experiencing at least four negative alcohol-related consequences or of daily cigarette smoking. Furthermore, the likelihood of negative outcomes (alcohol-related consequences; use of other substances) increased among people with risky drinking behaviours, independent of beverage preference. CONCLUSIONS: In our survey, beer preference was associated with risky drinking patterns and illicit drug use. Alcohol polices to prevent large quantities of alcohol consumption, especially of cheaper spirits like beer, should be considered to reduce total alcohol consumption and the negative consequences associated with these beverage types.

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Recently, the surprising result that ab initio calculations on benzene and other planar arenes at correlated MP2, MP3, configuration interaction with singles and doubles (CISD), and coupled cluster with singles and doubles levels of theory using standard Pople’s basis sets yield nonplanar minima has been reported. The planar optimized structures turn out to be transition states presenting one or more large imaginary frequencies, whereas single-determinant-based methods lead to the expected planar minima and no imaginary frequencies. It has been suggested that such anomalous behavior can be originated by two-electron basis set incompleteness error. In this work, we show that the reported pitfalls can be interpreted in terms of intramolecular basis set superposition error (BSSE) effects, mostly between the C–H moieties constituting the arenes. We have carried out counterpoise-corrected optimizations and frequency calculations at the Hartree–Fock, B3LYP, MP2, and CISD levels of theory with several basis sets for a number of arenes. In all cases, correcting for intramolecular BSSE fixes the anomalous behavior of the correlated methods, whereas no significant differences are observed in the single-determinant case. Consequently, all systems studied are planar at all levels of theory. The effect of different intramolecular fragment definitions and the particular case of charged species, namely, cyclopentadienyl and indenyl anions, respectively, are also discussed

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AIM: Atomic force microscopy nanoindentation of myofibers was used to assess and quantitatively diagnose muscular dystrophies from human patients. MATERIALS & METHODS: Myofibers were probed from fresh or frozen muscle biopsies from human dystrophic patients and healthy volunteers, as well as mice models, and Young's modulus stiffness values were determined. RESULTS: Fibers displaying abnormally low mechanical stability were detected in biopsies from patients affected by 11 distinct muscle diseases, and Young's modulus values were commensurate to the severity of the disease. Abnormal myofiber resistance was also observed from consulting patients whose muscle condition could not be detected or unambiguously diagnosed otherwise. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: This study provides a proof-of-concept that atomic force microscopy yields a quantitative read-out of human muscle function from clinical biopsies, and that it may thereby complement current muscular dystrophy diagnosis.

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The most evident symptoms of schizophrenia are severe impairment of cognitive functions like attention, abstract reasoning and working memory. The latter has been defined as the ability to maintain and manipulate on-line a limited amount of information. Whereas several studies show that working memory processes are impaired in schizophrenia, the specificity of this deficit is still unclear. Results obtained with a new paradigm, involving visuospatial, dynamic and static working memory processing, suggest that schizophrenic patients rely on a specific compensatory strategy. An animal model of schizophrenia with a transient deficit in glutathione during the development reveals similar substitutive processing, masking the impairment in working memory functions in specific test conditions only. Taken together, these results show coherence between working memory deficits in schizophrenic patients and in animal models. More generally, it is possible to consider that the pathological state may be interpreted as a reduced homeostatic reserve. However, this may be balanced in specific situations by efficient allostatic strategies. Thus, the pathological condition would remain latent in several situations, due to such allostatic regulations. However, to maintain a performance based on highly specific strategies requires in turn specific conditions, limitating adaptative resources in humans and in animals. In summary, we suggest that the psychological and physical load to maintain this rigid allostatic state is very high in patients and animal subjects.

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When you are entitled to Social Security disability benefits for 24 months, you are eligible for Medicare beginning the 25th month. An exception applies if you have been diagnosed with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) also known as Lou Gehrig’s Disease. If you have ALS, Medicare begins the first month you are entitled to Social Security disability benefits.

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Aims: To provide 12-month prevalence and disability burden estimates of a broad range of mental and neurological disorders in the European Union (EU) and to compare these findings to previous estimates. Referring to our previous 2005 review, improved up-to-date data for the enlarged EU on a broader range of disorders than previously covered are needed for basic, clinical and public health research and policy decisions and to inform about the estimated number of persons affected in the EU. Method: Stepwise multi-method approach, consisting of systematic literature reviews, reanalyses of existing data sets, national surveys and expert consultations. Studies and data from all member states of the European Union (EU-27) plus Switzerland, Iceland and Norway were included. Supplementary information about neurological disorders is provided, although methodological constraints prohibited the derivation of overall prevalence estimates for mental and neurological disorders. Disease burden was measured by disability adjusted life years (DALY). Results: Prevalence: It is estimated that each year 38.2% of the EU population suffers from a mental disorder. Adjusted for age and comorbidity, this corresponds to 164.8 million persons affected. Compared to 2005 (27.4%) this higher estimate is entirely due to the inclusion of 14 new disorders also covering childhood/adolescence as well as the elderly. The estimated higher number of persons affected (2011: 165 m vs. 2005: 82 m) is due to coverage of childhood and old age populations, new disorders and of new EU membership states. The most frequent disorders are anxiety disorders (14.0%), insomnia (7.0%), major depression (6.9%), somatoform (6.3%), alcohol and drug dependence (>4%), ADHD (5%) in the young, and dementia (1-30%, depending on age). Except for substance use disorders and mental retardation, there were no substantial cultural or country variations. Although many sources, including national health insurance programs, reveal increases in sick leave, early retirement and treatment rates due to mental disorders, rates in the community have not increased with a few exceptions (i.e. dementia). There were also no consistent indications of improvements with regard to low treatment rates, delayed treatment provision and grossly inadequate treatment. Disability: Disorders of the brain and mental disorders in particular, contribute 26.6% of the total all cause burden, thus a greater proportion as compared to other regions of the world. The rank order of the most disabling diseases differs markedly by gender and age group; overall, the four most disabling single conditions were: depression, dementias, alcohol use disorders and stroke. Conclusion: In every year over a third of the total EU population suffers from mental disorders. The true size of "disorders of the brain" including neurological disorders is even considerably larger. Disorders of the brain are the largest contributor to the all cause morbidity burden as measured by DALY in the EU. No indications for increasing overall rates of mental disorders were found nor of improved care and treatment since 2005; less than one third of all cases receive any treatment, suggesting a considerable level of unmet needs. We conclude that the true size and burden of disorders of the brain in the EU was significantly underestimated in the past.Concerted priority action is needed at all levels, including substantially increased funding for basic, clinical and public health research in order to identify better strategies for improved prevention and treatment for isorders of the brain as the core health challenge of the 21st century. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Feeding and oviposition preferences of Ctenarytaina spatulata Taylor (Hemiptera, Psyllidae) for Eucalyptus spp. and other Myrtaceae in Brazil. The Australian psyllid, Ctenarytaina spatulata Taylor (Hemiptera, Psyllidae), was first detected in Brazil in 1994, where it was found on drought-affected shoots of Eucalyptus grandis in a plantation located in the northern part of Paraná State. The oviposition and feeding preferences of this psyllid were examined on 19 Eucalyptus species, one Eucalyptus hybrid (Cambiju), three Corymbia species and four native Myrtaceae species (Hexaclames edulis, Marlieria edulis, Plinia trunciflora, and Psydium sp.) under greenhouse conditions. The largest populations of C. spatulata were found on E. robusta and E. pellita, while sizeable infestations were also found on E. urophylla, E. grandis, and the Cambiju hybrid. The plants with the greatest symptoms of damage were E. grandis and E. resinifera. Eucalyptus cinerea, E. benthamii, E. pilularis, and E. dunnii were not infested and E. cloeziana was minimally infested. Among the Corymbia species, the number of eggs of C. spatulata was very low on C. citriodora and C. torelliana. No eggs and nymphs of C. spatulata were found on native Brazilian Myrtaceae. The number of eggs on plants was highly correlated with the subsequent levels of nymphs, suggesting that egg counts can be used as a viable monitoring tool to assist with the integrated management of this pest.