Pacific Carriers Ltd v BNP Paribas

High Court decision in Pacific Carriers v BNP Paribas, that BNP Paribas was estopped from denying the authority of its manager to sign the documents on its behalf will be a relief to third parties who rely on documents signed for and on behalf of financial institutions - particularly to those involved in the shipping industry who seek letters of indemnity relating to discharge of cargo without production of bills of lading.

UMA ANÁLISE DA RELAÇÃO ENTRE VARIÁVEIS MACROECONÔMICAS E O COMPORTAMENTO DAS AÇÕES DE MAIOR LIQUIDEZ DO ÍNDICE IBOVESPA

As ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, refletem o comportamento das ações de um modo geral, bem como a relação das variáveis macroeconômicas em seu comportamento e estão entre as mais negociadas no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Desta forma, pode-se entender que há reflexos de fatores que impactam as empresas de maior liquidez que definem o comportamento das variáveis macroeconômicas e que o inverso também é uma verdade, oscilações nos fatores macroeconômicos também afetam as ações de maior liquidez, como IPCA, PIB, SELIC e Taxa de Câmbio. O estudo propõe uma análise da relação existente entre variáveis macroeconômicas e o comportamento das ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, corroborando com estudos que buscam entender a influência de fatores macroeconômicos sobre o preço de ações e contribuindo empiricamente com a formação de portfólios de investimento. O trabalho abrangeu o período de 2008 a 2014. Os resultados concluíram que a formação de carteiras, visando a proteção do capital investido, deve conter ativos com correlação negativa em relação às variáveis estudadas, o que torna possível a composição de uma carteira com risco reduzido.

Estimating conditional volatility with neural networks

It is well known that one of the obstacles to effective forecasting of exchange rates is heteroscedasticity (non-stationary conditional variance). The autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) model and its variants have been used to estimate a time dependent variance for many financial time series. However, such models are essentially linear in form and we can ask whether a non-linear model for variance can improve results just as non-linear models (such as neural networks) for the mean have done. In this paper we consider two neural network models for variance estimation. Mixture Density Networks (Bishop 1994, Nix and Weigend 1994) combine a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and a mixture model to estimate the conditional data density. They are trained using a maximum likelihood approach. However, it is known that maximum likelihood estimates are biased and lead to a systematic under-estimate of variance. More recently, a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation has been developed (Bishop and Qazaz 1996) that shows promise in removing the maximum likelihood bias. However, up to now, this model has not been used for time series prediction. Here we compare these algorithms with two other models to provide benchmark results: a linear model (from the ARIMA family), and a conventional neural network trained with a sum-of-squares error function (which estimates the conditional mean of the time series with a constant variance noise model). This comparison is carried out on daily exchange rate data for five currencies.

Merre vezessen a magyar kapitalizmus útja? Látkép Ronald Coase világítótornyából = Which course for Hungary s capitalism? A view from Ronald Coase s lighthouse

A tanulmány - amely Coase és az új intézményi közgazdaságtan alapján keresi a címbeli kérdésre adható választ - a kapitalizmus alapvető interakciós formájaként a kölcsönösen előnyös cserét azonosítja, amely az emberi együttműködés megnyilvánulása. A gazdasági fejlődés feltétele e kooperáció költségeit csökkentő társadalmi játékszabályok, intézmények kialakítása. A jól működő kapitalizmus intézményi rendje sűrű és sokrétű, a részleteit tekintve időben és térben igen változó, jelentős részben nem állami, hanem magáneredetű. Ez a rend nem tervezhető meg, és jelenlegi tudásunk alapján nem is érthető meg konzisztens, összefüggő rendszerként. A magyar gazdaság fejlődési célját ezért nem lehet nemzetgazdasági szintű rendszerként vagy modellként megfogalmazni. A tényleges feladat az intézményi rend középszintű elemeinek fokozatos, kísérletező változtatása, figyelembe véve a már létező intézményi környezet történetileg adott, helyhez és időhöz kötött sajátosságait. De az intézményi "barkácsolásnak" mindvégig szem előtt kell tartania a kapitalizmus alapelvét: az önkéntes, kölcsönösen előnyös tranzakciók támogatását. _____ The study draws on Coase s lighthouse" of new institutional economics in addressing this question. It identifies mutually beneficial exchange, a manifestation of human cooperation, as the underlying form of interaction in capitalism, while stressing that economic development depends on creating social rules of the game (institutions) that decrease the costs of exchange. The institutional order of well-functioning capitalism is thickly woven with many features, often of private rather than public (legal or political) origin. Details vary greatly in time and space. Such an order cannot be planned, and with current knowledge, it cannot be seen as a consistent system. So the goal in Hungary s economic development should not be defined as a system or model for a national economy. It should set out to change intermediate-level institutions in gradual, experimental ways that pay heed to the time and space-bound idiosyncrasies of existing ones. Moreover institutional tinkering" should observe capitalism s basic institutional principle: facilitation of voluntary, mutually beneficial transactions.

Essays on financial crises

This dissertation analyzes recent financial crises in developed and developing countries. The research emphasizes the effects of institutional factors on the international banking and currency crises and their output losses. ^ Chapter two examines the roles of regulation, supervision, and countries' institutional environment in determining the probability of banking crises for a panel of fifteen developed countries from 1975 to 1998. The results from a multivariate logit model indicated that countries with greater government involvement, less capital standard requirements, and lower lending limits on a single borrower are associated with a higher probability of banking crises. ^ Chapter three studies whether output loss in banking crisis differs in market-based or bank-based financial systems. Using existing banking crisis data for sixty-nine countries during 1970–1999, we investigate whether the underlying financial system affects the output loss. The results show that output losses are more serious in market-based economies than those in bank-based economies. Longer crisis duration tends to increase the output losses in banking crises. Finally, countries with deposit insurance and strict law enforcement have less output losses. ^ Chapter four uses macroeconomic and institutional measures to explain the extent of exchange rate depreciation and the decline in stock prices for emerging countries affected by the Mexican currency crisis of 1994–95. The results show that countries with more government budget deficits, and worse reserve adequacies tend to experience large exchange rate depreciation. The institutional measures do not explain much the extent of both the exchange rate depreciation and the decline in stock prices. ^

Essays on international macroeconomics and conflict analysis

This dissertation addressed two broad problems in international macroeconomics and conflict analysis. The first problem in the first chapter looked at the behavior of exchange rate and its interaction with industry-level tradable goods prices for three countries, USA, UK and Japan. This question has important monetary policy implications. Here, I computed to what extent changes in exchange rate affected prices of consumer, producer, and export goods. I also studied the timing of these changes in these prices. My results, based on thirty-four industrial prices for USA, UK and Japan, supported the view that changes in exchange rates significantly affect prices of industrial and consumer goods. It also provided an insight to the underlying economic process that led to changes in relative prices. ^ In the second chapter, I explored the predictability of future inflation by incorporating shocks to exchange rates and clearly specified the transmission mechanisms that link exchange rates to industry-level consumer and producer prices. Employing a variety of linear and state-of-the-art nonlinear models, I also predicted growth rates of future prices. Comparing levels of inflation obtained from the above approaches showed superiority of the structural model incorporating the exchange rate pass-through effect. ^ The second broad issue addressed in the third chapter of the dissertation investigated the economic motives for conflict, manifested by rebellion and civil war for seventeen Latin American countries. Based on the analytical framework of Garfinkel, Skaperdas and Syropoulos (2004), I employed ordinal regressions and Markov switching for a panel of seventeen countries to identify trade and openness factors responsible for conflict occurrence and intensity. The results suggested that increased trade openness reduced high intensity domestic conflicts but overdependence on agricultural exports, along with a lack of income earning opportunities lead to more conflicts. Thereafter, using the Cox Proportional Hazard model I studied “conflict duration” and found that over-reliance on agricultural exports explained a major part of the length of conflicts in addition to various socio-political factors. ^

Síntese e caracterização estrutural, magnética e térmica da hidroxiapatita dopada com ferro

In this work, composites were prepared using high energy mechanical milling from the precursors hydroxyapatite - HAp (Ca10(PO4)6(OH)2) and metallic iron ( -Fe ). The main goal here is to study composites in order to employ them in magnetic hyperthermia for cancer therapy. The produced samples were characterized by X-ray di raction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), magnetization curves as a function of applied eld (MxH), and nally measurements of magnetic hyperthermia. The XRD patterns of the milled samples HAp/Fe revealed only the presence of precursor materials. The SEM showed clusters with irregular shapes. The magnetization curves indicated typical cases of weak ferromagnetic behavior. For samples submitted to grinding and annealing, the identi ed phases were: HAp (Ca10(PO4)6(OH)2), hematite (Fe2O3) and Calcium Iron Phosphate (Ca9Fe(PO4)7). Analyzing the results of MxH, there was a reduction of the saturation magnetization, given that the Fe was incorporated into HAp. Hysteresis curves obtained at 300 K are characteristics of samples possessing over a phase. At 77 K, the behavior of the hysteresis curve is in uenced by the presence of hematite, which is antiferromagnetic. Already at T = 4.2 K, it is observed a weak ferromagnetic behavior. Furthermore, there is the e ect of exchange bias. Regarding the magnetic hyperthermia, the results of temperature measurements as a function of the alternating eld are promising for applications in magnetic hyperthermia and other biomedical applications.

Estudo in silico das interações da protease NS3-NS2B de DENV-2 com o inibidor peptídico Bz-nKRR-H com finalidades terapêuticas

Dengue virus is an important patogen that causes Dengue desease in all world, and belongs to Flavivirus gender. The virus consists of enveloped RNA with a single strand positive sense, 11Kb genome. The RNA is translated into a polyprotein precursor, wich is cleaved into 3 structural proteins (C, prM e E) and 7 non-structural proteins (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B e NS5). The NS3 is a multifunctional protein, that besides to promote the polyprotein precursor cleavage, also have NTPase, helicase and RTPase activity. The NS3 needs a hydrophilic segment of 40 residues from the transmembrane NS2B protein (who acts like cofator) to realize this functions. Actually, there's no vacines available on the market, and the treatment are just symptomatic. The tetrapeptide inhibitor Bz-Nle-Lys-Arg-Arg-H (Ki de 5,8-7,0 M) was showed as a potent inhibitor μ for NS3prot in Dengue virus. That is a inteligent alternative to treat the dengue desease. The present work aimed analyse the interactions of the ligand bounded to the activity site to provid a clear and depth vision of that interaction. For this purpouse, it was conducted an in silico study, by using quantum mechanical calculations based on Density Functional Theory (DFT), with Generalized Gradient approximation (GGA) to describe the effects of exchange and correlation. The interaction energy of each amino acid belonging to the binding site to the ligand was calculated the using the method of molecular fragmentation with conjugated caps (MFCC). Besides energy, we calculated the distances, types of molecular interactions and atomic groups involved. The theoretical models used were satisfactory and show a more accurate description when the dielectric constant = 20 ε and 80 was used. The results demonstrate that the interaction energy of the system reached convergence at 13.5 A. Within a radius of 13,5A the most important residues were identified. Met49, Met84 and Asp81 perform interactions of hydrogen with the ligant. The Asp79 and Asp75 residues present high energy of attraction. Arg54, Arg85 and Lys 131 perform hydrogen interactions with the ligand, however, appear in BIRD graph having high repulsion energy with the inhibitor. The data also emphasizes the importance of residue Tyr161 and the involvement of the catalytic triad composed by Asp75, His51 and Ser135

Anisotropia magnética em nanofilmes com assimetria cristalográfica

This Thesis comprises a theoretical study about the influence of the magnetocrystalline anisotropy on the static and dynamic magnetic properties of nanofilms: monolayers and trilayers coupled through the bilinear and biquadratic exchange fields, for situations in which the systems are grown in unusual [hkl] asymmetric directions. Using a theory based on a realistic phenomenological model for description of nanometric systems, we consider the total free magnetic energy including the Zeeman interaction, cubic and uniaxial anisotropies, demagnetizing and surface anysotropy energies, as well as the exchange terms. Numerical calculations are conducted by minimizing the total magnetic energy from the determination of equilibrium static configurations. We consider experimental parameters found in the literature to illustrate our results for Fe/Cr/Fe trilayer systems. In particular, a total of six different magnetic scenarios are analyzed for three regimens of exchange fields and the [211] and [321] asymmetric growth directions. After numerically minimize the total energy, we use the equilibrium configurations to calculate magnetization and magnetoresistance curves with the respective magnetic phases and corresponding critical fields. These results are also used to establish the boundary for occurrence of saturated states. Within the context of the spin waves, we solve the equation of motion for these systems in order to find the respective associated dispersion relations. The results show similar magnetization and magnetoresistance curves for both [211] and [321] growth scenarios, including an equivalent magnetic transition behavior. However, the combination of those peculiar symmetries and influence of the exchange energies results in attractive properties, including the generation of magnetic states as a function of the asymmetric degree imposed in the [hkl] growth orientations. There is also an increasing incompatibility between the values of saturation fields of magnetization and magnetoresistance for the cases in which a magnetic field acts along intermediate cubic anisotropic axes, particularly in the situations where the bilinear and biquadratic exchange fields are comparable. The dispersion relations and static results are consistent, the corresponding magnetic states are also present in both acoustic and optical modes. Furthermore, Goldstone excitations are also observed for that particular cases of a magnetic field acting in the intermediate axes, an effect related to transitions of second order and to the spontaneous symmetry breaking imposed by the combination of the biquadratic energy with the cubic and uniaxial anisotropies.

A dinâmica da taxa de câmbio no Brasil face às operações swap (2002-2015)

This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.

As escolas polivalentes do Triângulo Mineiro e Alto Paranaíba (MG): sondagem vocacional no projeto desenvolvimentista civil-militar (1965–1976)

This study has as object eight state vocational schools located in Araguari, Araxá, Frutal, Ituiutaba, Monte Carmelo, Patos de Minas, Uberaba and Uberlândia, in Minas Gerais. The period analyzed comprises the years from 1965 to 1976, from the signature of the Agreement 512-11-610-042 beteween the Ministry of Education and Culture (MEC) and the American Agency for International Development (USAID), which started a series of other agreements, and actions ending up with the creation of the Expansion and Improvement of High Schools Program (Programa de Expansão e Melhoria do Ensino Médio - PREMEM) and, from this, the Vocational Schools. The upper limit of the study, 1976, was the year when these agreements, known as MEC/USAID agreements ceased. The Vocational Schools were characterized as vocation probing schools, directing the professional formation of the population in general, which would happen a posteriori, turning it shorter and more effective, since the labor market would demand, urgently, capable professionals for an expanding economy. The project of Vocational Schools had a national scope, and foresaw, for its unfolding, the complete substitution of State Schools for the new model, called “multi-curricula”. The theme Vocational schools was the object of my Master’s degree study, when I focused the State School Guiomar de Freitas Costa, in Uberlândia. That study raised questionings and concerns that resulted in the central problem of the thesis presented here: understanding the measure in which such schools integrated the country’s development project – mostly in the first half of the military rule – and to understand its structure, functionality and efficacyThe development of the study presented here, demanded the use of several sources: 1) specialized literature about the topics presented, i.e., the situation of national education in a temporal analysis, the political, economical and social context, research methodologies, the theory of human capital, vocational teaching, pedagogical trends and practices, agreements MEC-USAID and PREMEM; 2) national, state and county laws related to the discussion: laws of national education directives and basis, decrees and reports stating about the program of technical cooperation between Brazil and the United States of America, the Program of Expansion and Improvement of Teaching (PREMEM), formation of professors, establishment of Vocational Schools and educational planning; 3) documentation of school archives: books of minutes of Collegiate and of faculty and staff, registrar books with final scores, enrolment, visits of inspector, accounting books, punch clock records, student, professor and staff occurrences, inventory, class schedules, school year calendar, school rules, class reports, payment rolls, bills of sales, exchanged mail, personal documentation of professional personnel, documents of land acquisition, blueprints, manuals of PREMEM, didactic materials/resources used in classes, books available in the school library, structured evaluations for follow-up of school processes, pictures of events, texts prepared for special dates, and news from the official newspaper and, finally, 4) national and local press reports, especially from Folha de São Paulo, Correio de Araxá, Correio de Uberlândia and Lavoura e Comércio (Uberaba). The proposition of Vocational schools was conciliate theoretical and practical formation through an active education permeated by technological resources. The contact with knowledge and several practical activities under professional supervision, the student would identify the knowledge area that would interest him the most and his aptitude. This formation in primary school would make way for the vocation studies in high school, which became mandatory by the law 5.692/71, that reformed school education from the previous levels of elementary, middle high and high school. However, the multi-curricula proposal that would be spread to the other public schools in the country ended up succumbing to the model already established. From its ephemeral existence, maybe the Vocational Schools have not reached the more general goals in political, economic and social aspects; however, this study demonstrated that, for the people that, directly or indirectly, had contact with such schools, a legacy of vocational and quality teaching was made, so much so, that forty years after the end of that proposal, they are still remembered.

El Congreso por la Libertad de la Cultura y su apoyo a la disidencia intelectual durante el franquismo

El artículo reconstruye los principales aspectos de la labor del Congreso por la Libertad de la Cultura entre la oposición antifranquista del interior. Se describen las circunstancias políticas que motivaron la fundación del Comité Español (1959-1977), así como las principales características de esa célula intelectual antifranquista. El artículo indaga en los objetivos ideológicos y políticos de la actividad del Congreso por la Libertad de la Cultura entre las elites intelectuales y culturales disidentes durante el tardofranquismo. Nos concentramos especialmente en el capítulo que atañe a la ayuda directa dispensada por el Congreso por la Libertad de la Cultura a los intelectuales y artistas españoles mediante la concesión de becas de libros y bolsas de viaje a través del Comité d’Ecrivains et d’Editeurs pour une Entraide Européenne. Reconstruimos asimismo los nombres de los principales beneficiarios españoles de esas ayudas, así como la principal problemática vinculada al desarrollo del programa. El análisis histórico se apoya en documentos procedentes de diversos archivos nacionales e internacionales.

Deterministic Switching in Bismuth Ferrite Nanoislands

We report deterministic selection of polarization variant in bismuth BiFeO3 nanoislands via a two-step scanning probe microscopy procedure. The polarization orientation in a nanoisland is toggled to the desired variant after a reset operation by scanning a conductive atomic force probe in contact over the surface while a bias is applied. The final polarization variant is determined by the direction of the inhomogeneous in-plane trailing field associated with the moving probe tip. This work provides the framework for better control of switching in rhombohedral ferroelectrics and for a deeper under- standing of exchange coupling in multiferroic nanoscale hetero- structures toward the realization of magnetoelectric devices.

The Great Transition:Climate, disease and society in the late-medieval world

In the fourteenth century the Old World witnessed a series of profound and abrupt changes in the trajectory of long-established historical trends. Trans-continental networks of exchange fractured and an era of economic contraction and demographic decline dawned from which Latin Christendom would not begin to emerge until its voyages of discovery at the end of the fifteenth century. In a major new study of this 'Great Transition', assessment is made of the contributions of commercial recession, war, climate change,and eruption of the Black Death to a far-reaching reversal of fortunes which spared no part of Eurasia. A wealth of new historical, palaeoecological and biological evidence are synthesised, including estimates of national income, reconstructions of past climates. and genetic analysis of DNA extracted from the teeth of plague victims, to provide a fresh account of the creation, collapse and realignment of western Europe's late-medieval commercial economy.