Practical stability of approximating discrete-time filters with respect to model mismatch using relative entropy concepts

This paper establishes practical stability results for an important range of approximate discrete-time filtering problems involving mismatch between the true system and the approximating filter model. Using local consistency assumption, the practical stability established is in the sense of an asymptotic bound on the amount of bias introduced by the model approximation. Significantly, these practical stability results do not require the approximating model to be of the same model type as the true system. Our analysis applies to a wide range of estimation problems and justifies the common practice of approximating intractable infinite dimensional nonlinear filters by simpler computationally tractable filters.

Practical stability with respect to model mismatch of approximate discrete-time output feedback control

This paper establishes a practical stability result for discrete-time output feedback control involving mismatch between the exact system to be stabilised and the approximating system used to design the controller. The practical stability is in the sense of an asymptotic bound on the amount of error bias introduced by the model approximation, and is established using local consistency properties of the systems. Importantly, the practical stability established here does not require the approximating system to be of the same model type as the exact system. Examples are presented to illustrate the nature of our practical stability result.

Natural convection from a plane vertical porous surface in non-isothermal surroundings

In this paper, laminar natural convection flow from a permeable and isothermal vertical surface placed in non-isothermal surroundings is considered. Introducing appropriate transformations into the boundary layer equations governing the flow derives non-similar boundary layer equations. Results of both the analytical and numerical solutions are then presented in the form of skin-friction and Nusselt number. Numerical solutions of the transformed non-similar boundary layer equations are obtained by three distinct solution methods, (i) the perturbation solutions for small � (ii) the asymptotic solution for large � (iii) the implicit finite difference method for all � where � is the transpiration parameter. Perturbation solutions for small and large values of � are compared with the finite difference solutions for different values of pertinent parameters, namely, the Prandtl number Pr, and the ambient temperature gradient n.

Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Accelerated leap methods for simulating discrete stochastic chemical kinetics

Biologists are increasingly conscious of the critical role that noise plays in cellular functions such as genetic regulation, often in connection with fluctuations in small numbers of key regulatory molecules. This has inspired the development of models that capture this fundamentally discrete and stochastic nature of cellular biology - most notably the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The SSA simulates a temporally homogeneous, discrete-state, continuous-time Markov process, and of course the corresponding probabilities and numbers of each molecular species must all remain positive. While accurately serving this purpose, the SSA can be computationally inefficient due to very small time stepping so faster approximations such as the Poisson and Binomial τ-leap methods have been suggested. This work places these leap methods in the context of numerical methods for the solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Poisson noise. This allows analogues of Euler-Maruyuma, Milstein and even higher order methods to be developed through the Itô-Taylor expansions as well as similar derivative-free Runge-Kutta approaches. Numerical results demonstrate that these novel methods compare favourably with existing techniques for simulating biochemical reactions by more accurately capturing crucial properties such as the mean and variance than existing methods.

An effective approach to verbose queries using a limited dependencies language model

Intuitively, any ‘bag of words’ approach in IR should benefit from taking term dependencies into account. Unfortunately, for years the results of exploiting such dependencies have been mixed or inconclusive. To improve the situation, this paper shows how the natural language properties of the target documents can be used to transform and enrich the term dependencies to more useful statistics. This is done in three steps. The term co-occurrence statistics of queries and documents are each represented by a Markov chain. The paper proves that such a chain is ergodic, and therefore its asymptotic behavior is unique, stationary, and independent of the initial state. Next, the stationary distribution is taken to model queries and documents, rather than their initial distributions. Finally, ranking is achieved following the customary language modeling paradigm. The main contribution of this paper is to argue why the asymptotic behavior of the document model is a better representation then just the document’s initial distribution. A secondary contribution is to investigate the practical application of this representation in case the queries become increasingly verbose. In the experiments (based on Lemur’s search engine substrate) the default query model was replaced by the stable distribution of the query. Just modeling the query this way already resulted in significant improvements over a standard language model baseline. The results were on a par or better than more sophisticated algorithms that use fine-tuned parameters or extensive training. Moreover, the more verbose the query, the more effective the approach seems to become.

Free surface flow past topography : a beyond-all-orders approach

The problem of steady subcritical free surface flow past a submerged inclined step is considered. The asymptotic limit of small Froude number is treated, with particular emphasis on the effect that changing the angle of the step face has on the surface waves. As demonstrated by Chapman & Vanden-Broeck (2006), the divergence of a power series expansion in powers of the square of the Froude number is caused by singularities in the analytic continuation of the free surface; for an inclined step, these singularities may correspond to either the corners or stagnation points of the step, or both, depending on the angle of incline. Stokes lines emanate from these singularities, and exponentially small waves are switched on at the point the Stokes lines intersect with the free surface. Our results suggest that for a certain range of step angles, two wavetrains are switched on, but the exponentially subdominant one is switched on first, leading to an intermediate wavetrain not previously noted. We extend these ideas to the problem of flow over a submerged bump or trench, again with inclined sides. This time there may be two, three or four active Stokes lines, depending on the inclination angles. We demonstrate how to construct a base topography such that wave contributions from separate Stokes lines are of equal magnitude but opposite phase, thus cancelling out. Our asymptotic results are complemented by numerical solutions to the fully nonlinear equations.

Ergodic capacity of the exponentially correlated slotted amplify and forward relay channel

In this paper we analyze the performance degradation of slotted amplify-and-forward protocol in wireless environments with high node density where the number of relays grows asymptotically large. Channel gains between source-destination pairs in such networks can no longer be independent. We analyze the degradation of performance in such wireless environments where channel gains are exponentially correlated by looking at the capacity per channel use. Theoretical results for eigenvalue distribution and the capacity are derived and compared with the simulation results. Both analytical and simulated results show that the capacity given by the asymptotic mutual information decreases with the network density.

Wound healing angiogenesis : the clinical implications of a simple mathematical model

Nonhealing wounds are a major burden for health care systems worldwide. In addition, a patient who suffers from this type of wound usually has a reduced quality of life. While the wound healing process is undoubtedly complex, in this paper we develop a deterministic mathematical model, formulated as a system of partial differential equations, that focusses on an important aspect of successful healing: oxygen supply to the wound bed by a combination of diffusion from the surrounding unwounded tissue and delivery from newly formed blood vessels. While the model equations can be solved numerically, the emphasis here is on the use of asymptotic methods to establish conditions under which new blood vessel growth can be initiated and wound-bed angiogenesis can progress. These conditions are given in terms of key model parameters including the rate of oxygen supply and its rate of consumption in the wound. We use our model to discuss the clinical use of treatments such as hyperbaric oxygen therapy, wound bed debridement, and revascularisation therapy that have the potential to initiate healing in chronic, stalled wounds.

Double diffusive magneto-convection fluid flow in a strong cross magnetic field with uniform surface heat and mass flux

In this study, magnetohydrodynamic natural convection boundary layer flow of an electrically conducting and viscous incompressible fluid along a heated vertical flat plate with uniform heat and mass flux in the presence of strong cross magnetic field has been investigated. For smooth integrations the boundary layer equations are transformed in to a convenient dimensionless form by using stream function formulation as well as the free variable formulation. The nonsimilar parabolic partial differential equations are integrated numerically for Pr ≪1 that is appropriate for liquid metals against the local Hartmann parameter ξ . Further, asymptotic solutions are obtained near the leading edge using regular perturbation method for smaller values of ξ . Solutions for values of ξ ≫ 1 are also obtained by employing the matched asymptotic technique. The results obtained for small, large and all ξ regimes are examined in terms of shear stress, τw, rate of heat transfer, qw, and rate of mass transfer, mw, for important physical parameter. Attention has been given to the influence of Schmidt number, Sc, buoyancy ratio parameter, N and local Hartmann parameter, ξ on velocity, temperature and concentration distributions and noted that velocity and temperature of the fluid achieve their asymptotic profiles for Sc ≥ 10:0.

Practical stability of approximating discrete-time filters with respect to model mismatch

This paper establishes practical stability results for an important range of approximate discrete-time filtering problems involving mismatch between the true system and the approximating filter model. Practical stability is established in the sense of an asymptotic bound on the amount of bias introduced by the model approximation. Our analysis applies to a wide range of estimation problems and justifies the common practice of approximating intractable infinite dimensional nonlinear filters by simpler computationally tractable filters.

Stable strong order 1.0 schemes for solving stochastic ordinary differential equations

The Balanced method was introduced as a class of quasi-implicit methods, based upon the Euler-Maruyama scheme, for solving stiff stochastic differential equations. We extend the Balanced method to introduce a class of stable strong order 1. 0 numerical schemes for solving stochastic ordinary differential equations. We derive convergence results for this class of numerical schemes. We illustrate the asymptotic stability of this class of schemes is illustrated and is compared with contemporary schemes of strong order 1. 0. We present some evidence on parametric selection with respect to minimising the error convergence terms. Furthermore we provide a convergence result for general Balanced style schemes of higher orders.

A new approach for trip generation estimation for TIA

Transport Impact Assessment (TIA) -Generally a short range transport planning activity -Assess transport impacts of new developments or expansions -Present solutions to mitigate impacts Problems with TIA Process -Private vehicles focus (i.e. Veh Trip Ends) -Proxy variables (e.g. 100sqm GFA) -Trip generation rates (e.g. VTE/proxy) -Little info/guidance on trip chaining effects -Little info/guidance on non-PV modes Requires significant professional judgment

Quantile regression without the curse of unsmoothness

We consider quantile regression models and investigate the induced smoothing method for obtaining the covariance matrix of the regression parameter estimates. We show that the difference between the smoothed and unsmoothed estimating functions in quantile regression is negligible. The detailed and simple computational algorithms for calculating the asymptotic covariance are provided. Intensive simulation studies indicate that the proposed method performs very well. We also illustrate the algorithm by analyzing the rainfall–runoff data from Murray Upland, Australia.