A framework for adapting survey design through time for wildlife population assessment

Sampling strategies for monitoring the status and trends in wildlife populations are often determined before the first survey is undertaken. However, there may be little information about the distribution of the population and so the sample design may be inefficient. Through time, as data are collected, more information about the distribution of animals in the survey region is obtained but it can be difficult to incorporate this information in the survey design. This paper introduces a framework for monitoring motile wildlife populations within which the design of future surveys can be adapted using data from past surveys whilst ensuring consistency in design-based estimates of status and trends through time. In each survey, part of the sample is selected from the previous survey sample using simple random sampling. The rest is selected with inclusion probability proportional to predicted abundance. Abundance is predicted using a model constructed from previous survey data and covariates for the whole survey region. Unbiased design-based estimators of status and trends and their variances are derived from two-phase sampling theory. Simulations over the short and long-term indicate that in general more precise estimates of status and trends are obtained using this mixed strategy than a strategy in which all of the sample is retained or all selected with probability proportional to predicted abundance. Furthermore the mixed strategy is robust to poor predictions of abundance. Estimates of status are more precise than those obtained from a rotating panel design.

Estimated dietary intakes and sources of flavanols in the German population (German National Nutrition Survey II)

Background/Objectives Data from intervention studies suggest a beneficial effect of flavanols on vascular health. However, insufficient data on their intake have delayed the assessment of their health benefits. The aim of this study was to estimate intake of flavanols and their main sources among people living in Germany. Subjects/Methods Data from diet history interviews of the German National Nutrition Survey II for 15,371 people across Germany aged 14–80 years were analyzed. The FLAVIOLA Flavanol Food Composition Database was compiled using the latest US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer Databases and expanded to include recipes and retention factors. Results Mean intake of total flavanols, flavan-3-ol monomers, proanthocyanidins (PA), and theaflavins in Germany was 386, 120, 196, and 70 mg/day, respectively. Women had higher intakes of total flavanols (399 mg/day) than men (372 mg/day) in all age groups, with the exception of the elderly. Similar results were observed for monomers (108 mg/day for men, 131 mg/day for women) and PA (190 mg/day; 203 mg/day), although intake of theaflavins was higher in men (74 mg/day; 66 mg/day). There was an age gradient with an increase in total flavanols, monomers, and theaflavins across the age groups. The major contributor of total flavanols in all subjects was pome fruits (27 %) followed by black tea (25 %). Conclusions This study demonstrated age- and sex-related variations in the intake and sources of dietary flavanols in Germany. The current analysis will provide a valuable tool in clarifying and confirming the potential health benefits of flavanols.

The role of sky conditions on gross primary production in a mixed deciduous forest

The role of different sky conditions on diffuse PAR fraction (ϕ), air temperature (Ta), vapor pressure deficit (vpd) and GPP in a deciduous forest is investigated using eddy covariance observations of CO2 fluxes and radiometer and ceilometer observations of sky and PAR conditions on hourly and growing season timescales. Maximum GPP response occurred under moderate to high PAR and ϕ and low vpd. Light response models using a rectangular hyperbola showed a positive linear relation between ϕ and effective quantum efficiency (α = 0.023ϕ + 0.012, r2 = 0.994). Since PAR and ϕ are negatively correlated, there is a tradeoff between the greater use efficiency of diffuse light and lower vpd and the associated decrease in total PAR available for photosynthesis. To a lesser extent, light response was also modified by vpd and Ta. The net effect of these and their relation with sky conditions helped enhance light response under sky conditions that produced higher ϕ. Six sky conditions were classified from cloud frequency and ϕ data: optically thick clouds, optically thin clouds, mixed sky (partial clouds within hour), high, medium and low optical aerosol. The frequency and light responses of each sky condition for the growing season were used to predict the role of changing sky conditions on annual GPP. The net effect of increasing frequency of thick clouds is to decrease GPP, changing low aerosol conditions has negligible effect. Increases in the other sky conditions all lead to gains in GPP. Sky conditions that enhance intermediate levels of ϕ, such as thin or scattered clouds or higher aerosol concentrations from volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic emissions, will have a positive outcome on annual GPP, while an increase in cloud cover will have a negative impact. Due to the ϕ/PAR tradeoff and since GPP response to changes in individual sky conditions differ in sign and magnitude, the net response of ecosystem GPP to future sky conditions is non-linear and tends toward moderation of change.

Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts

A comparison of the point forecasts and the probability distributions of inflation and output growth made by individual respondents to the US Survey of Professional Forecasters indicates that the two sets of forecasts are sometimes inconsistent. We evaluate a number of possible explanations, and find that not all forecasters update their histogram forecasts as new information arrives. This is supported by the finding that the point forecasts are more accurate than the histograms in terms of first-moment prediction.

Where have all the linguists gone? The position of Linguistics in British German Studies from the mid-19th century until 2000

Retrospectively, Linguistics - understood as a scientific study of language - has been an important part of British German Studies. In fact, the establishment of modern language as academic disciplines in the UK is closely related to the Germanic philology and the interest in the history, and structure of languages. However, over the last few decades, a demise of Linguistics in the departments of modern languages has been observed. The aim of this paper is to survey the position of linguistic research and teaching in the discipline of German Studies in the UK. To begin with, I will give a brief account of the history of linguistic/ language studies in the discipline. Subsequently, the current position of Linguistics in research and teaching will be scrutinised. Finally, this paper will discuss the importance of linguistic insights for the discipline of German Studies, with particular reference to teaching.

A survey of simultaneous observations of the high-latitude ionosphere and interplanetary magnetic field with EISCAT and AMPTE-UKS

This paper surveys the results of simultaneous observations by the EISCAT incoherent scatter radar and the AMPTE-UKS satellite, made during three periods in September and October 1984, when AMPTE-UKS was in the solar wind on the dayside of the Earth and the UK-POLAR EISCAT experiment was measuring ionospheric parameters at invariant latitudes 70.8–75.0°. A total of 42 h of EISCAT convection velocity data, with 2.5 min resolution, were obtained, together with 28 h of simultaneous 5 s resolution AMPTE-UKS observations of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The general features of the AMPTE-UKS data are described in Section 2 and those of the EISCAT data are described in Sections 3 and 4. The main subjects discussed are the form of the plasma convection patterns and their dependence on all three components of the IMF (Section 5), the ionospheric response to abrupt changes in the IMF (Section 6), in particular a sharp ‘southward turning’ of the IMF on 27 October 1984, and a crossing of an IMF sector boundary. Section 7 describes ‘short lived rapid flow burst’, which are believed to be related to flux transfer events at the magnetopause.

The politics of the environment: a survey

The book is a collection of cutting edge essay on the politics of the environment covering and analysing important topics, such as the Kyoto protocol and deforestation, this book provides extensive coverage of all aspects of environmental politics. This unbiased survey is of interest to students, academics, business people and general researchers. Four sections present a thorough overview of current issues in the politics of the environment in historical perspective. The first section consists of essays written by a variety of academic and other experts on topics including Globalization: The Environment and Development Debate; The State, International Relations and the Environment; Environmental Movements; Mass Media and Environmental Politics; and The Ethical Dimensions of Global Environmental Change

A survey of data mining techniques for social media analysis

Social network has gained remarkable attention in the last decade. Accessing social network sites such as Twitter, Facebook LinkedIn and Google+ through the internet and the web 2.0 technologies has become more affordable. People are becoming more interested in and relying on social network for information, news and opinion of other users on diverse subject matters. The heavy reliance on social network sites causes them to generate massive data characterised by three computational issues namely; size, noise and dynamism. These issues often make social network data very complex to analyse manually, resulting in the pertinent use of computational means of analysing them. Data mining provides a wide range of techniques for detecting useful knowledge from massive datasets like trends, patterns and rules [44]. Data mining techniques are used for information retrieval, statistical modelling and machine learning. These techniques employ data pre-processing, data analysis, and data interpretation processes in the course of data analysis. This survey discusses different data mining techniques used in mining diverse aspects of the social network over decades going from the historical techniques to the up-to-date models, including our novel technique named TRCM. All the techniques covered in this survey are listed in the Table.1 including the tools employed as well as names of their authors.

An ethnomedicinal survey of a Tashelhit-speaking community in the High Atlas, Morocco

Traditional knowledge about medicinal plants from a poorly studied region, the High Atlas in Morocco, is reported here for the first time; this permits consideration of efficacy and safety of current practices whilst highlighting species previously not known to have traditional medicinal use. Our study aims to document local medicinal plant knowledge among Tashelhit speaking communities through ethnobotanical survey, identifying preferred species and new medicinal plant citations and illuminating the relationship between emic and etic ailment classifications. Ethnobotanical data were collected using standard methods and with prior informed consent obtained before all interactions, data were characterized using descriptive indices and medicinal plants and healing strategies relevant to local livelihoods were identified. 151 vernacular names corresponding to 159 botanical species were found to be used to treat 36 folk ailments grouped in 14 biomedical use categories. Thirty-five (22%) are new medicinal plant records in Morocco, and 26 described as used for the first time anywhere. Fidelity levels (FL) revealed low specificity in plant use, particularly for the most commonly reported plants. Most plants are used in mixtures. Plant use is driven by local concepts of disease, including “hot” and “cold” classification and beliefs in supernatural forces. Local medicinal plant knowledge is rich in the High Atlas, where local populations still rely on medicinal plants for healthcare. We found experimental evidence of safe and effective use of medicinal plants in the High Atlas; but we highlight the use of eight poisonous species.

Population-Based Multicentric Survey of Hepatitis B Infection and Risk Factor Differences among Three Regions in Brazil

This multicentric population-based study in Brazil is the first national effort to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis B (HBV) and risk factors in the capital cities of the Northeast. Central-West, and Federal Districts (2004-2005). Random multistage cluster sampling was used to select persons 13-69 years of age. Markers for HBV were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The HBV genotypes were determined by sequencing hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Multivariate analyses and simple catalytic model were performed. Overall. 7,881 persons were inculded < 70% were not vaccinated. Positivity for HBsAg was less than 1% among non-vaccinated persons and genotypes A, D, and F co-circulated. The incidence of infection increased with age with similar force of infection in all regions. Males and persons having initiated sexual activity were associated with HBV infection in the two settings: healthcare jobs and prior hospitalization were risk factors in the Federal District. Our survey classified these regions as areas with HBV endemicity and highlighted the risk factors differences among the settings.

Multilevel analysis of hepatitis A infection in children and adolescents: a household survey in the Northeast and Central-west regions of Brazil

Background The objectives were to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis A among children and adolescents from the Northeast and Midwest regions and the Federal District of Brazil and to identify individual-, household- and area-levels factors associated with hepatitis A infection. Methods This population-based survey was conducted in 20042005 and covered individuals aged between 5 and 19 years. A stratified multistage cluster sampling technique with probability proportional to size was used to select 1937 individuals aged between 5 and 19 years living in the Federal capital and in the State capitals of 12 states in the study regions. The sample was stratified according to age (59 and 10- to 19-years-old) and capital within each region. Individual- and household-level data were collected by interview at the home of the individual. Variables related to the area were retrieved from census tract data. The outcome was total antibodies to hepatitis A virus detected using commercial EIA. The age distribution of the susceptible population was estimated using a simple catalytic model. The associations between HAV infection and independent variables were assessed using the odds ratio and corrected for the random design effect and sampling weight. Multilevel analysis was performed by GLLAMM using Stata 9.2. Results The prevalence of hepatitis A infection in the 59 and 1019 age-group was 41.5 and 57.4, respectively for the Northeast, 32.3 and 56.0, respectively for the Midwest and 33.8 and 65.1 for the Federal District. A trend for the prevalence of HAV infection to increase according to age was detected in all sites. By the age of 5, 31.5 of the children had already been infected with HAV in the Northeast region compared with 20.0 in the other sites. By the age of 19 years, seropositivity was 70 in all areas. The curves of susceptible populations differed from one area to another. Multilevel modeling showed that variables relating to different levels of education were associated with HAV infection in all sites. Conclusion The study sites were classified as areas with intermediate endemicity area for hepatitis A infection. Differences in age trends of infection were detected among settings. This multilevel model allowed for quantification of contextual predictors of hepatitis A infection in urban areas.

Patterns of food acquisition in Brazilian households and associated factors: a population-based survey

Objective: To identify food acquisition patterns in Brazil and relate them to the sociodemographic characteristics of the household. Design: A cross-sectional national Household Budget Survey (HBS). Principal component factor analysis was used to derive food patterns (factors) on the basis of the acquisition of food classified into thirty-two food groups. Setting: The source of data originates from the 2002-2003 HBS carried out by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics between June 2002 and July 2003 using a representative sample of all Brazilian households. Subject: A total of 48 470 households allocated into 443 strata of households that were geographically and socio-economically homogeneous as a study unit. Results: We identified two patterns of food acquisition. The first, named `dual`, was characterized by dairy, fruit, fruit juice, vegetables, processed meat, soft drinks, sweets, bread and margarine, and by inverse correlations with Brazilian staple foods. In contrast, the second pattern, named `traditional`, was characterized by rice, beans, manioc, flour, milk and sugar. The `dual` pattern was associated with higher household educational level, income and the average age of adults on the strata, whereas the `traditional` presented higher loadings in less-educated households and in the rural setting. Conclusions: Dietary patterns described here suggest that policies and programmes to promote healthy eating need to consider that healthy and non-healthy foods may be integral in the same pattern.

Modeling hourly and daily fractions of UV, PAR and NIR to global solar radiation under various sky conditions at Botucatu, Brazil

In this analysis, using available hourly and daily radiometric data performed at Botucatu, Brazil, several empirical models relating ultraviolet (UV), photosynthetically active (PAR) and near infrared (NIR) solar global components with solar global radiation (G) are established. These models are developed and discussed through clearness index K(T) (ratio of the global-to-extraterrestrial solar radiation). Results obtained reveal that the proposed empirical models predict hourly and daily values accurately. Finally. the overall analysis carried Out demonstrates that the sky conditions are more important in developing correlation models between the UV component and the global solar radiation. The linear regression models derived to estimate PAR and NIR components may be obtained without sky condition considerations within a maximum variation of 8%. In the case of UV, not taking into consideration the sky condition may cause a discrepancy of up to 18% for hourly values and 15% for daily values. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GHASP: an H alpha kinematic survey of spiral and irregular galaxies - IX. The near-infrared, stellar and baryonic Tully-Fisher relations

We studied, for the first time, the near-infrared, stellar and baryonic Tully-Fisher relations for a sample of field galaxies taken from a homogeneous Fabry-Perot sample of galaxies [the Gassendi HAlpha survey of SPirals (GHASP) survey]. The main advantage of GHASP over other samples is that the maximum rotational velocities were estimated from 2D velocity fields, avoiding assumptions about the inclination and position angle of the galaxies. By combining these data with 2MASS photometry, optical colours, HI masses and different mass-to-light ratio estimators, we found a slope of 4.48 +/- 0.38 and 3.64 +/- 0.28 for the stellar and baryonic Tully-Fisher relation, respectively. We found that these values do not change significantly when different mass-to-light ratio recipes were used. We also point out, for the first time, that the rising rotation curves as well as asymmetric rotation curves show a larger dispersion in the Tully-Fisher relation than the flat ones or the symmetric ones. Using the baryonic mass and the optical radius of galaxies, we found that the surface baryonic mass density is almost constant for all the galaxies of this sample. In this study we also emphasize the presence of a break in the NIR Tully-Fisher relation at M(H,K) similar to -20 and we confirm that late-type galaxies present higher total-to-baryonic mass ratios than early-type spirals, suggesting that supernova feedback is actually an important issue in late-type spirals. Due to the well-defined sample selection criteria and the homogeneity of the data analysis, the Tully-Fisher relation for GHASP galaxies can be used as a reference for the study of this relation in other environments and at higher redshifts.

VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV): The public ESO near-IR variability survey of the Milky Way

We describe the public ESO near-IR variability survey (VVV) scanning the Milky Way bulge and an adjacent section of the mid-plane where star formation activity is high. The survey will take 1929 h of observations with the 4-m VISTA telescope during 5 years (2010-2014), covering similar to 10(9) point sources across an area of 520 deg(2), including 33 known globular clusters and similar to 350 open clusters. The final product will be a deep near-IR atlas in five passbands (0.9-2.5 mu m) and a catalogue of more than 106 variable point sources. Unlike single-epoch surveys that, in most cases, only produce 2-D maps, the VVV variable star survey will enable the construction of a 3-D map of the surveyed region using well-understood distance indicators such as RR Lyrae stars, and Cepheids. It will yield important information on the ages of the populations. The observations will be combined with data from MACHO, OGLE, EROS, VST, Spitzer, HST, Chandra, INTEGRAL, WISE, Fermi LAT, XMM-Newton, GAIA and ALMA for a complete understanding of the variable sources in the inner Milky Way. This public survey will provide data available to the whole community and therefore will enable further studies of the history of the Milky Way, its globular cluster evolution, and the population census of the Galactic Bulge and center, as well as the investigations of the star forming regions in the disk. The combined variable star catalogues will have important implications for theoretical investigations of pulsation properties of stars. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.