An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A randomized trial of a problem-based learning approach for teaching epidemiology

Purpose. To conduct a controlled trial of traditional and problem-based learning (PBL) methods of teaching epidemiology. Method. All second-year medical students (n = 136) at The University of Western Australia Medical School were offered the chance to participate in a randomized controlled trial of teaching methods fur an epidemiology course. Students who consented to participate (n = 80) were randomly assigned to either a PBL or a traditional course. Students who did not consent or did not return the consent form (n = 56) were assigned to the traditional course, Students in both streams took identical quizzes and exams. These scores, a collection of semi-quantitative feedback from all students, and a qualitative analysis of interviews with a convenience sample of six students from each stream were compared. Results. There was no significant difference in performances on quizzes or exams between PBL and traditional students. Students using PBL reported a stronger grasp of epidemiologic principles, enjoyed working with a group, and, at the end of the course, were more enthusiastic about epidemiology and its professional relevance to them than were students in the traditional course. PBL students worked more steadily during the semester but spent only marginally more time on the epidemiology course overall. Interviews corroborated these findings. Non-consenting students were older (p < 0.02) and more likely to come from non-English-speaking backgrounds (p < 0.005). Conclusions. PBL provides an academically equivalent but personally far richer learning experience. The adoption of PBL approaches to medical education makes it important to study whether PBL presents particular challenges for students whose first language is not the language of instruction.

Estimating the cost of contact for non-resident parents: A budget standards approach

Most Western countries have, for some time, provided income support and/or taxation relief to parents with children in their care. The significant amount of research into the costs of children to couple and sole parent households has been important in assessing and developing family support policies. Changing societal expectations about the level of involvement of fathers in child rearing activities has highlighted the need to understand the costs facing usually male non-resident parents in having contact with their children. The budget standards methodology is used in this paper to estimate the costs for non-resident parents exercising regular contact with their children. Costs of contact are found to be high. For contact with one child for 20 per cent of the year, costs of contact represent about 40 per cent of the costs of that same child in an intact couple household with a medium income and more than half of the costs of that child in a household with low income. Household infrastructure and transportation is the reason for high costs. One implication of this finding is that the total cost of children substantially increases when parents separate. The article discusses some policy implications of these findings. This research is of relevance to social security, taxation, family law and child support policies and administration.

Career versus motherhood? A case study describing a cognitive-existential approach to the dilemma

The present paper reports a case study concerning a professional woman in her 30s, who presented to the Occupational Health department of a metropolitan hospital with work stress stemming from accelerating work demands and marital problems related to the decision about whether to start a family or continue her career. No clinical diagnosis was warranted; however, Maslach Burnout Inventory Scores indicated a high degree of emotional exhaustion and moderate levels of depersonalisation, offset by a high sense of personal accomplishment in her work role. The client also demonstrated severe stress and moderate depression on the Depression-Anxiety-Stress Scale (DASS-21). The case was conceptualised from a combined cognitive-existential perspective. The woman's cognitions about her work, relationship, and prospective motherhood roles were identified, as well as underlying existential issues such as finding a meaning in life and a fear of being alone and unloved. Eight sessions of therapy incorporated components of cognitive and existential therapies, aimed at managing stress and improving marital adjustment. Posttreatment results showed substantial reductions in all the measures of distress, while personal accomplishment remained high. The woman and her husband decided to defer starting a family until other issues had been addressed.

An auction theoretical approach to fiscal wars

I examine a situation where a firm chooses to locate a new factory in one of several jurisdictions. The value of the factory may differ among jurisdictions and it depends on the private information held by each jurisdiction. Jurisdictions compete for the location of the new factory. This competition may take the form of expenditures already incurred on infrastructure, commitments to spend on infrastructure, tax incentives or even cash payments. The model combines two elements that are usually considered separately; competition is desirable because we want the factory to be located in the jurisdiction that values it the most, but competition in itself is wasteful. I show that the expected total amount paid to the firm under a large family of arrangements is the same. Moreover, I show that the ex-ante optimal mechanism that is, the mechanism that guarantees that the firm chooses the jurisdiction with the highest value for the factory, minimizes the total expected payment to the firm, and balances the budget in an ex-ante sense - can be implemented by running a standard auction and subsidizing participation.

Formal methods within a totally functional approach to programming

Taking functional programming to its extremities in search of simplicity still requires integration with other development (e.g. formal) methods. Induction is the key to deriving and verifying functional programs, but can be simplified through packaging proofs with functions, particularly folds, on data (structures). Totally Functional Programming avoids the complexities of interpretation by directly representing data (structures) as platonic combinators - the functions characteristic to the data. The link between the two simplifications is that platonic combinators are a kind of partially-applied fold, which means that platonic combinators inherit fold-theoretic properties, but with some apparent simplifications due to the platonic combinator representation. However, despite observable behaviour within functional programming that suggests that TFP is widely-applicable, significant work remains before TFP as such could be widely adopted.

Qualitative assessment of stock prices listed on the Sao Paulo stock exchange: An approach from the perspective of homogeneity analysis

The stock market suffers uncertain relations throughout the entire negotiation process, with different variables exerting direct and indirect influence on stock prices. This study focuses on the analysis of certain aspects that may influence these values offered by the capital market, based on the Brazil Index of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa), which selects 100 stocks among the most traded on Bovespa in terms of number of trades and financial volume. The selected variables are characterized by the companies` activity area and the business volume in the month of data collection, i.e. April/2007. This article proposes an analysis that joins the accounting view of the stock price variables that can be influenced with the use of multivariate qualitative data analysis. Data were explored through Correspondence Analysis (Anacor) and Homogeneity Analysis (Homals). According to the research, the selected variables are associated with the values presented by the stocks, which become an internal control instrument and a decision-making tool when it comes to choosing investments.

Exploratory Approach to the use of Techniques of Regression Analysis and Pooled Analysis in Studies of Consumer Behavior

This paper is part of a large study to assess the adequacy of the use of multivariate statistical techniques in theses and dissertations of some higher education institutions in the area of marketing with theme of consumer behavior from 1997 to 2006. The regression and conjoint analysis are focused on in this paper, two techniques with great potential of use in marketing studies. The objective of this study was to analyze whether the employement of these techniques suits the needs of the research problem presented in as well as to evaluate the level of success in meeting their premisses. Overall, the results suggest the need for more involvement of researchers in the verification of all the theoretical precepts of application of the techniques classified in the category of investigation of dependence among variables.

Spatial aspects of trade liberalization in Colombia: A general equilibrium approach

This paper offers some preliminary steps in the marriage of some of the theoretical foundations of new economic geography with spatial computable general equilibrium models. Modelling the spatial economy of Colombia using the traditional assumptions of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models makes little sense when one territorial unit, Bogota, accounts for over one quarter of GDP and where transportation costs are high and accessibility low compared to European or North American standards. Hence, handling market imperfections becomes imperative as does the need to address internal spatial issues from the perspective of Colombia`s increasing involvement with external markets. The paper builds on the Centro de Estudios de Economia Regional (CEER) model, a spatial CGE model of the Colombian economy; non-constant returns and non-iceberg transportation costs are introduced and some simulation exercises carried out. The results confirm the asymmetric impacts that trade liberalization has on a spatial economy in which one region, Bogota, is able to more fully exploit scale economies vis--vis the rest of Colombia. The analysis also reveals the importance of different hypotheses on factor mobility and the role of price effects to better understand the consequences of trade opening in a developing economy.

The rational reconstruction of the research program on classic rationalism: Locke and the empiricist approach

This article intends to rationally reconstruct Locke`s theory of knowledge as incorporated in a research program concerning the nature and structure of the theories and models of rationality. In previous articles we argued that the rationalist program can be subdivided into the classical rationalistic subprogram, which includes the knowledge theories of Descartes, Locke, Hume and Kant, the neoclassical subprogram, which includes the approaches of Duhem, Poincare and Mach, and the critical subprogram of Popper. The subdivision results from the different views of rationality proposed by each one of these subprograms, as well as from the tools made available by each one of them, containing theoretical instruments used to arrange, organize and develop the discussion on rationality, the main one of which is the structure of solution of problems. In this essay we intend to reconstruct the assumptions of Locke`s theory of knowledge, which in our view belongs to the classical rationalistic subprogram because it shares with it the thesis of the identity of (scientific) knowledge and certain knowledge.

Valuing water resources in developing countries: A semiparametric approach to valuation models

Valuation of projects for the preservation of water resources provides important information to policy makers and funding institutions. Standard contingent valuation models rely on distributional assumptions to provide welfare measures. Deviations from assumed and actual distribution of benefits are important when designing policies in developing countries, where inequality is a concern. This article applies semiparametric methods to obtain estimates of the benefit from a project for the preservation of an important Brazilian river basin. These estimates lead to significant differences from those obtained using the standard parametric approach.

Regulation of xylanase in Aspergillus phoenicis: a physiological and molecular approach

Microbial xylanolytic enzymes have a promising biotechnological potential, and are extensively applied in industries. In this study, induction of xylanolytic activity was examined in Aspergillus phoenicis. Xylanase activity induced by xylan, xylose or beta-methylxyloside was predominantly extracellular (93-97%). Addition of 1% glucose to media supplemented with xylan or xylose repressed xylanase production. Glucose repression was alleviated by addition of cAMP or dibutyryl-cAMP. These physiological observations were supported by a Northern analysis using part of the xylanase gene ApXLN as a probe. Gene transcription was shown to be induced by xylan, xylose, and beta-methylxyloside, and was repressed by the addition of 1% glucose. Glucose repression was partially relieved by addition of cAMP or dibutyryl cAMP.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

A new approach to the synthesis of conjugated polymer-nanocrystal composites for heterojunction optoelectronics

We report a simple one pot process for the preparation of lead sulfide (PbS) nanocrystals in the conjugated polymer poly (2-methoxy-5-(2'-ethyl-hexyloxy)-p-phenylene vinylene) (MEH-PPV), and we demonstrate electronic coupling between the two components.