The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Three Essays on the Formation and Impact of Economic Policy

Introduction In my thesis I argue that economic policy is all about economics and politics. Consequently, analysing and understanding economic policy ideally has at least two parts. The economics part, which is centered around the expected impact of a specific policy on the real economy both in terms of efficiency and equity. The insights of this part point into which direction the fine-tuning of economic policies should go. However, fine-tuning of economic policies will be most likely subject to political constraints. That is why, in the politics part, a much better understanding can be gained by taking into account how the incentives of politicians and special interest groups as well as the role played by different institutional features affect the formation of economic policies. The first part and chapter of my thesis concentrates on the efficiency-related impact of economic policies: how does corporate income taxation in general, and corporate income tax progressivity in specific, affect the creation of new firms? Reduced progressivity and flat-rate taxes are in vogue. By 2009, 22 countries are operating flat-rate income tax systems, as do 7 US states and 14 Swiss cantons (for corporate income only). Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the "flat tax" model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. In joint work, Marius Brülhart and I explore the implications of changes in these three parameters on entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births in a panel of Swiss municipalities. Our results show that lower average tax rates and reduced complexity of the tax code promote firm births. Controlling for these effects, reduced progressivity inhibits firm births. Our reading of these results is that tax progressivity has an insurance effect that facilitates entrepreneurial risk taking. The positive effects of lower tax levels and reduced complexity are estimated to be significantly stronger than the negative effect of reduced progressivity. To the extent that firm births reflect desirable entrepreneurial dynamism, it is not the flattening of tax schedules that is key to successful tax reforms, but the lowering of average tax burdens and the simplification of tax codes. Flatness per se is of secondary importance and even appears to be detrimental to firm births. The second part of my thesis, which corresponds to the second and third chapter, concentrates on how economic policies are formed. By the nature of the analysis, these two chapters draw on a broader literature than the first chapter. Both economists and political scientists have done extensive research on how economic policies are formed. Thereby, researchers in both disciplines have recognised the importance of special interest groups trying to influence policy-making through various channels. In general, economists base their analysis on a formal and microeconomically founded approach, while abstracting from institutional details. In contrast, political scientists' frameworks are generally richer in terms of institutional features but lack the theoretical rigour of economists' approaches. I start from the economist's point of view. However, I try to borrow as much as possible from the findings of political science to gain a better understanding of how economic policies are formed in reality. In the second chapter, I take a theoretical approach and focus on the institutional policy framework to explore how interactions between different political institutions affect the outcome of trade policy in presence of special interest groups' lobbying. Standard political economy theory treats the government as a single institutional actor which sets tariffs by trading off social welfare against contributions from special interest groups seeking industry-specific protection from imports. However, these models lack important (institutional) features of reality. That is why, in my model, I split up the government into a legislative and executive branch which can both be lobbied by special interest groups. Furthermore, the legislative has the option to delegate its trade policy authority to the executive. I allow the executive to compensate the legislative in exchange for delegation. Despite ample anecdotal evidence, bargaining over delegation of trade policy authority has not yet been formally modelled in the literature. I show that delegation has an impact on policy formation in that it leads to lower equilibrium tariffs compared to a standard model without delegation. I also show that delegation will only take place if the lobby is not strong enough to prevent it. Furthermore, the option to delegate increases the bargaining power of the legislative at the expense of the lobbies. Therefore, the findings of this model can shed a light on why the U.S. Congress often practices delegation to the executive. In the final chapter of my thesis, my coauthor, Antonio Fidalgo, and I take a narrower approach and focus on the individual politician level of policy-making to explore how connections to private firms and networks within parliament affect individual politicians' decision-making. Theories in the spirit of the model of the second chapter show how campaign contributions from lobbies to politicians can influence economic policies. There exists an abundant empirical literature that analyses ties between firms and politicians based on campaign contributions. However, the evidence on the impact of campaign contributions is mixed, at best. In our paper, we analyse an alternative channel of influence in the shape of personal connections between politicians and firms through board membership. We identify a direct effect of board membership on individual politicians' voting behaviour and an indirect leverage effect when politicians with board connections influence non-connected peers. We assess the importance of these two effects using a vote in the Swiss parliament on a government bailout of the national airline, Swissair, in 2001, which serves as a natural experiment. We find that both the direct effect of connections to firms and the indirect leverage effect had a strong and positive impact on the probability that a politician supported the government bailout.

Large multi-gene phylogenetic trees of the grasses (Poaceae): progress towards complete tribal and generic level sampling.

In this paper we included a very broad representation of grass family diversity (84% of tribes and 42% of genera). Phylogenetic inference was based on three plastid DNA regions rbcL, matK and trnL-F, using maximum parsimony and Bayesian methods. Our results resolved most of the subfamily relationships within the major clades (BEP and PACCMAD), which had previously been unclear, such as, among others the: (i) BEP and PACCMAD sister relationship, (ii) composition of clades and the sister-relationship of Ehrhartoideae and Bambusoideae + Pooideae, (iii) paraphyly of tribe Bambuseae, (iv) position of Gynerium as sister to Panicoideae, (v) phylogenetic position of Micrairoideae. With the presence of a relatively large amount of missing data, we were able to increase taxon sampling substantially in our analyses from 107 to 295 taxa. However, bootstrap support and to a lesser extent Bayesian inference posterior probabilities were generally lower in analyses involving missing data than those not including them. We produced a fully resolved phylogenetic summary tree for the grass family at subfamily level and indicated the most likely relationships of all included tribes in our analysis.

La figura di Nikola Tesla (1856-1943) in Tajna Nikole Tesle (1980)

Nikola Tesla è considerato, dai divulgatori scientifici che di lui si occupano, una figura chiave nella storia della scienza moderna e contemporanea, per l’importanza che hanno avuto le sue ricerche nello sviluppo di tecnologie del XX e XXI secolo. La sua attuale scarsa fama nel piano accademico contrasta con un’abbondante presenza di un Nikola Tesla come personaggio di finzione nelle arti popolari. Questa ricezione ambigua di Tesla potrebbe essere di fatto relazionata con il carattere utopico e visionario delle sue speranze nella scienza come mezzo di conoscenza per il miglioramento della società umana. Questo breve saggio si propone di analizzare come venga presentato il personaggio di Nikola Tesla nel lungometraggio jugoslavo Tajna Nikole Tesle, contribuendo così alla comprensione di come la narrativa di finzione possa sfruttare l’immagine di uno scienziato relativamente agli interessi politici legati a specifici contesti socio-storici.

El lloc teatral i el seu espai escènic: artialització en William Shakespeare (c..1590-1611) : actor, empresari, dramaturg

Pensar en William Shakespeare, apropar-se a una de l'obres què més tinta han fet córrer, se'ns presenta com voler trobar una agulla en un paller. Amb tot, aquest treball de recerca a volgut discernir la dramatúrgia de Shakespeare, des de l'òptica espacial i estètica. El seu marc, a l'Anglaterra renaixentista -ss,XVI-XVII-, és: l'abundosa legislació -important l'Acta promulgada l'any 1572, per la reina Elisabet I-; la tipologia constructiva i formal del Lloc del Teatre, amb la formulació empresarial què se’n deriva; l'altre element, la participació de l'espectador implícit. Conclusivament, com l'artialització shakespeariana s'insereix, podem dir, 'dramatològicament', dins l'historiografia general del teatre.

Early DNA vaccination of puppies against canine distemper in the presence of maternally derived immunity.

Canine distemper (CD) is a disease in carnivores caused by CD virus (CDV), a member of the morbillivirus genus. It still is a threat to the carnivore and ferret population. The currently used modified attenuated live vaccines have several drawbacks of which lack of appropriate protection from severe infection is the most outstanding one. In addition, puppies up to the age of 6-8 weeks cannot be immunized efficiently due to the presence of maternal antibodies. In this study, a DNA prime modified live vaccine boost strategy was investigated in puppies in order to determine if vaccinated neonatal dogs induce a neutralizing immune response which is supposed to protect animals from a CDV challenge. Furthermore, a single DNA vaccination of puppies, 14 days after birth and in the presence of high titers of CDV neutralizing maternal antibodies, induced a clear and significant priming effect observed as early as 3 days after the subsequent booster with a conventional CDV vaccine. It was shown that the priming effect develops faster and to higher titers in puppies preimmunized with DNA 14 days after birth than in those vaccinated 28 days after birth. Our results demonstrate that despite the presence of maternal antibodies puppies can be vaccinated using the CDV DNA vaccine, and that this vaccination has a clear priming effect leading to a solid immune response after a booster with a conventional CDV vaccine.

Hacia un entrenamiento del actor

Esta investigación está basada en la intención de crear una guía de entrenamiento para el actor, que busca asumir un compromiso con su cuerpo, como instrumento para la creación escénica. El trabajo del actor-actriz está irremediablemente vinculado a su cuerpo, todo lo humano se enmarca en un cuerpo vivido, en el espacio y en el tiempo, no es algo neutral. Sabemos que cada actor-actriz, tiene una noción de su esquema corporal, entendiendo por esquema corporal la representación en imágenes de los diferentes segmentos corporales que conforman nuestro cuerpo y la percepción de éste esquema corporal, estará en función de su capacidad de auto-percepción

Evolutionary and convergence stability for continuous phenotypes in finite populations derived from two-allele models.

The evolution of a quantitative phenotype is often envisioned as a trait substitution sequence where mutant alleles repeatedly replace resident ones. In infinite populations, the invasion fitness of a mutant in this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process is used to characterize features about long-term phenotypic evolution, such as singular points, convergence stability (established from first-order effects of selection), branching points, and evolutionary stability (established from second-order effects of selection). Here, we try to characterize long-term phenotypic evolution in finite populations from this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process. We construct a stochastic model describing evolutionary dynamics at non-rare mutant allele frequency. We then derive stability conditions based on stationary average mutant frequencies in the presence of vanishing mutation rates. We find that the second-order stability condition obtained from second-order effects of selection is identical to convergence stability. Thus, in two-allele systems in finite populations, convergence stability is enough to characterize long-term evolution under the trait substitution sequence assumption. We perform individual-based simulations to confirm our analytic results.

Accuracy of sentinel lymph node dissection for melanoma staging in the presence of a collision tumour with a lymphoproliferative disease.

Sentinel lymph node dissection (SLND) identifies melanoma patients with metastatic disease who would benefit from radical lymph node dissection (RLND). Rarely, patients with melanoma have an underlying lymphoproliferative disease, and melanoma metastases might develop as collision tumours in the sentinel lymph node (SLN). The aim of this study was to measure the incidence and examine the effect of collision tumours on the accuracy of SLND and on the validity of staging in this setting. Between 1998 and 2012, 750 consecutive SLNDs were performed in melanoma patients using the triple technique (lymphoscintigraphy, gamma probe and blue dye). The validity of SLND in collision tumours was analysed. False negativity was reflected by the disease-free survival. The literature was reviewed on collision tumours in melanoma. Collision tumours of melanoma and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) were found in two SLN and in one RLND (0.4%). Subsequent RLNDs of SLND-positive cases were negative for melanoma. The patient with negative SLND developed relapse after 28 months with an inguinal lymph node metastasis of melanoma; RLND showed collision tumours. The literature review identified 12 cases of collision tumours. CLL was associated with increased melanoma incidence and reduced overall survival. This is, to our knowledge, the first assessment of the clinical value of SLND when collision tumours of melanoma and CLL are found. In this small series of three patients with both malignancies present in the same lymph node basin, lymphocytic infiltration of the CLL did not alter radioisotope uptake into the SLN. No false-negative result was observed. Our data suggest the validity of SLND in collision tumours, but given the rarity of the problem, further studies are necessary to confirm this reliability.

Glucose competence of the hepatoportal vein sensor requires the presence of an activated glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor.

Activation of the hepatoportal glucose sensors by portal glucose infusion leads to increased glucose clearance and induction of hypoglycemia. Here, we investigated whether glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) could modulate the activity of these sensors. Mice were therefore infused with saline (S-mice) or glucose (P-mice) through the portal vein at a rate of 25 mg/kg. min. In P-mice, glucose clearance increased to 67.5 +/- 3.7 mg/kg. min as compared with 24.1 +/- 1.5 mg/kg. min in S-mice, and glycemia decreased from 5.0 +/- 0.1 to 3.3 +/- 0.1 mmol/l at the end of the 3-h infusion period. Coinfusion of GLP-1 with glucose into the portal vein at a rate of 5 pmol/kg. min (P-GLP-1 mice) did not increase the glucose clearance rate (57.4 +/- 5.0 ml/kg. min) and hypoglycemia (3.8 +/- 0.1 mmol/l) observed in P-mice. In contrast, coinfusion of glucose and the GLP-1 receptor antagonist exendin-(9-39) into the portal vein at a rate of 0.5 pmol/kg. min (P-Ex mice) reduced glucose clearance to 36.1 +/- 2.6 ml/kg. min and transiently increased glycemia to 9.2 +/- 0.3 mmol/l at 60 min of infusion before it returned to the fasting level (5.6 +/- 0.3 mmol/l) at 3 h. When glucose and exendin-(9-39) were infused through the portal and femoral veins, respectively, glucose clearance increased to 70.0 +/- 4.6 ml/kg. min and glycemia decreased to 3.1 +/- 0.1 mmol/l, indicating that exendin-(9-39) has an effect only when infused into the portal vein. Finally, portal vein infusion of glucose in GLP-1 receptor(-/-) mice failed to increase the glucose clearance rate (26.7 +/- 2.9 ml/kg. min). Glycemia increased to 8.5 +/- 0.5 mmol/l at 60 min and remained elevated until the end of the glucose infusion (8.2 +/- 0.4 mmol/l). Together, our data show that the GLP-1 receptor is part of the hepatoportal glucose sensor and that basal fasting levels of GLP-1 sufficiently activate the receptor to confer maximum glucose competence to the sensor. These data demonstrate an important extrapancreatic effect of GLP-1 in the control of glucose homeostasis.