Dependency of military capabilities on technological development

Our goal is to get better understanding of different kind of dependencies behind the high-level capability areas. The models are suitable for investigating present state capabilities or future developments of capabilities in the context of technology forecasting. Three levels are necessary for a model describing effects of technologies on military capabilities. These levels are capability areas, systems and technologies. The contribution of this paper is to present one possible model for interdependencies between technologies. Modelling interdependencies between technologies is the last building block in constructing a quantitative model for technological forecasting including necessary levels of abstraction. This study supplements our previous research and as a result we present a model for the whole process of capability modelling. As in our earlier studies, capability is defined as the probability of a successful task or operation or proper functioning of a system. In order to obtain numerical data to demonstrate our model, we conducted a questionnaire to a group of defence technology researchers where interdependencies between seven representative technologies were inquired. Because of a small number of participants in questionnaires and general uncertainties concerning subjective evaluations, only rough conclusions can be made from the numerical results

A industrialização da pauta de exportação brasileira entre 1964 e 1974: novos dados e índices para o comércio exterior brasileiro do período

This paper analyses the effects on Brazil's trade indices of the rising share of industrial products in Brazil's exports in the period from 1964 to 1974. New price and quantity indices of Fisher for Brazil's exports and imports of industrial and non-industrial goods have been especially constructed for this period, in order to obtain methodologically consistent series of indexes from 1964 to 2005. The market-share-constant model was applied to analyze the effects of different groups of products on Brazil's export revenues between 1964 and 1974.