The Baltic states’ Territorial Defence Forces in the face of hybrid threats. OSW Commentary Number 165, 19.03.2015

From the Introduction. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its aggression in eastern Ukraine have triggered a debate about the main directions of defence policy in the Nordic and Baltic region. In the Baltic states, but also in the Nordic countries and Poland, much attention is being paid to questions of Territorial Defence Forces (TDF). TDF are viewed as one of the elements in the national defence systems’ response during the early stages of a hybrid conflict. The Baltic states have decided to adapt their Territorial Defence Forces to new threats by making a number of changes to their functioning, depending on the local conditions in each case. Given the growing uncertainty in the region, they have opted not to undertake any in-depth reforms of TDF at this stage, as that could entail a temporary disorganisation in the armed forces. In the coming years Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will invest in increasing the size and combat readiness of their Territorial Defence Forces, providing them with better training and equipment, and creating a system of incentives to encourage more people to serve in volunteer formations.

(Table 1) Results of alkenone analyses of ODP Hole 165-1002C

We determined alkenone concentrations (µg/g dry sediment) and unsaturation indices (Uk'37) on 280 samples from Ocean Drilling Program Hole 1002C over the last full glacial cycle (marine oxygen isotope Stages [MIS] 1-6). Alkenone concentrations vary dramatically in relation to glacial-interglacial cycles, with high concentrations typical of interglacial stages, high sea level, inferred high surface productivity, and bottom-water anoxia. Our reconstruction of low productivity during the last glacial maximum is consistent with previous reports of a sharp decline in the foraminiferal species Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, an upwelling index. Alkenone paleotemperatures show little cooling at both the last glacial maximum and MIS 6. Variations of as much as 4°C occurred during the earlier part of MIS 3 and MIS 4 as well as the latter part of MIS 5. The absence of cooling during glacial maxima determined from alkenone paleothermometry is consistent with faunal reconstructions for the western Caribbean but requires that much of the oxygen isotopic record of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber be influenced by salinity variations rather than temperature.