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Extinction is a remarkably difficult phenomenon to study under natural conditions. This is because the outcome of stress exposure and associated fitness reduction is not known until the extinction occurs and it remains unclear whether there is any phenotypic reaction of the exposed population that can be used to predict its fate. Here we take advantage of the fossil record, where the ecological outcome of stress exposure is known. Specifically, we analyze shell morphology of planktonic Foraminifera in sediment samples from the Mediterranean, during an interval preceding local extinctions. In two species representing different plankton habitats, we observe shifts in trait state and decrease in variance in association with non-terminal stress, indicating stabilizing selection. At terminal stress levels, immediately before extinction, we observe increased growth asymmetry and trait variance, indicating disruptive selection and bet-hedging. The pre-extinction populations of both species show a combination of trait states and trait variance distinct from all populations exposed to non-terminal levels of stress. This finding indicates that the phenotypic history of a population may allow the detection of threshold levels of stress, likely to lead to extinction. It is thus an alternative to population dynamics in studying and monitoring natural population ecology.

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Organic petrological and geochemical analyses were performed on samples cored on Broken Ridge and Ninetyeast Ridge in the Central Indian Ocean during Leg 121. Organic carbon (Corg) contents are less than 1% in each individual sample and average Corg values calculated for larger stratigraphic units are less than 0.2%. Generally, there is more organic matter in Cretaceous sediments than in Tertiary. In the Cretaceous, the bulk of the organic matter consists of terrigenous debris, but a significant contribution of marine-derived organic matter was found in some samples, especially in the early Maestrichtian on Broken Ridge (Site 754). The youngest Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments at Site 758 (northern part of Ninetyeast Ridge) contain a significant amount of clastic material transported to the site by the (distal) Bengal Fan. In these sediments, Corg contents of up to 0.9% were measured and are due to the inflow of terrigenous organic debris. Corg values are positively correlated with bulk sediment accumulation rates (i.e., sediments contain more organic matter at times of faster deposition). The size of terrigenous organic particles is generally small in all sediments. The extremely small number of particles in the Cretaceous sediments at Site 758 and their smaller grain size, compared to the Cretaceous sediments on Broken Ridge, indicate that Cretaceous surface water paleocurrents flowed from southeast to northwest in the Proto-Indian Ocean. In the central Indian Ocean, sediments deposited above the carbonate compensation depth consist of nannofossil and foraminiferal oozes. In contrast to Corg values, calcite contents in the sediments are negatively correlated with bulk sediment accumulation rates (i.e., carbonate oozes were deposited only during times of extremely slow sedimentation). Therefore, older sediments deposited in the young and still narrow Indian Ocean accumulated faster and are less carbonate-rich than Neogene sediments, although carbonate accumulation rates were higher.