Modelling the impact of land use change on water quality in agricultural catchments

Export coefficient modelling was used to model the impact of agriculture on nitrogen and phosphorus loading on the surface waters of two contrasting agricultural catchments. The model was originally developed for the Windrush catchment where the highly reactive Jurassic limestone aquifer underlying the catchment is well connected to the surface drainage network, allowing the system to be modelled using uniform export coefficients for each nutrient source in the catchment, regardless of proximity to the surface drainage network. In the Slapton catchment, the hydrological path-ways are dominated by surface and lateral shallow subsurface flow, requiring modification of the export coefficient model to incorporate a distance-decay component in the export coefficients. The modified model was calibrated against observed total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads delivered to Slapton Ley from inflowing streams in its catchment. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to isolate the key controls on nutrient export in the modified model. The model was validated against long-term records of water quality, and was found to be accurate in its predictions and sensitive to both temporal and spatial changes in agricultural practice in the catchment. The model was then used to forecast the potential reduction in nutrient loading on Slapton Ley associated with a range of catchment management strategies. The best practicable environmental option (BPEO) was found to be spatial redistribution of high nutrient export risk sources to areas of the catchment with the greatest intrinsic nutrient retention capacity.

Steering without Circe : attending to reinforcing loops in social systems

Relating system dynamics to the broad systems movement, the key notion is that reinforcing loops deserve no less attention than balancing loops. Three specific propositions follow. First, since reinforcing loops arise in surprising places, investigations of complex systems must consider their possible existence and potential impact. Second, because the strength of reinforcing loops can be misinferred - we include an example from the field of servomechanisms - computer simulation can be essential. Be it project management, corporate growth or inventory oscillation, simulation helps to assess consequences of reinforcing loops and options for interventions. Third, in social systems the consequences of reinforcing loops are not inevitable. Examples concerning globalization illustrate how difficult it might be to challenge such assumptions. However, system dynamics and ideas from contemporary social theory help to show that even the most complex social systems are, in principle, subject to human influence. In conclusion, by employing these ideas, by attending to reinforcing as well as balancing loops, system dynamics work can improve the understanding of social systems and illuminate our choices when attempting to steer them.

Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

Theory building with system dynamics: topic and research contributions

The article discusses various reports published within the issue, including the articles "Closing the Loop: Promoting Synergies with other Theory Building Approaches to Improve System Dynamics Practice," by Birgit Kopainsky and Luis Luna-Reyes, and "On improving dynamic decision-making: Implications from multiple-process cognitive theory," by Bent Bakken.

Public sector applications of the system dynamics approach

The article discusses various reports published within the issue, including one by Carmine Bianchi on understanding public sector from different levels and perspectives, one by Mauro Lo Tennero on the aspiration and structure of Sicily to enforce public policy, and one by Nuno Videira and colleagues on the use of group model building in the public sector to concur sustainable policies.

Genetic relatedness and phenotypic characteristics of Treponema associated with human periodontal tissues and ruminant foot disease

Treponema have been implicated recently in the pathogenesis of digital dermatitis (DID) and contagious ovine digital dermatitis (CODD) that are infectious diseases of bovine and ovine foot tissues, respectively. Previous analyses of treponemal 16S rDNA sequences, PCR-amplified directly from DID or CODD lesions, have suggested relatedness of animal Treponema to some human oral Treponema species isolated from periodontal tissues. In this study a range of adhesion and virulence-related properties of three animal Treponema isolates have been compared with representative human oral strains of Treponema denticola and Treponema vincentii. In adhesion assays using biotinylated treponemal cells, T denticola cells bound in consistently higher numbers to fibronectin, laminin, collagen type 1, gelatin, keratin and lactoferrin than did T. vincentii or animal Treponema isolates. However, animal DID strains adhered to fibrinogen at equivalent or greater levels than T denticola. All Treponema strains bound to the amino-terminal heparin l/fibrin I domain of fibronectin. 16S rDNA sequence analyses placed ovine strain UB1090 and bovine strain UB1467 within a cluster that was phylogenetically related to T vincentii, while ovine strain UB1466 appeared more closely related to T denticola. These observations correlated with phenotypic properties. Thus, T denticola ATCC 35405, GM-1, and Treponema UB1466 had similar outer-membrane protein profiles, produced chymotrypsin-like protease (CTLP), trypsin-like protease and high levels of proline iminopeptidase, and co-aggregated with human oral bacteria Porphyromonas gingivalis and Streptococcus crista. Conversely, T vincentii ATCC 35580, D2A-2, and animal strains UB1090 and UB1467 did not express CTLP or trypsin-like protease and did not co-aggregate with P. gingivalis or S. crista. Taken collectively, these results suggest that human oral-related Treponema have broad host specificity and that similar control or preventive strategies might be developed for human and animal Treponema-associated infections.

Lack of flagella disadvantages Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis during the early stages of infection in the rat

The roles of flagella and five fimbriae (SEF14, SEF17, SEF21, pef, lpf) in the early stages (up to 3 days) of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis (S. Enteritidis) infection have been investigated in the rat. Wild-type strains LA5 and S1400 (fim+/fla+) and insertionally inactivated mutants unable to express the five fimbriae (fim-/fla+), flagella (fim+/fla-) or fimbriae and flagella (fim-/fla-) were used. All wild-type and mutant strains were able to colonize the gut and spread to the mesenteric lymph nodes, liver and spleen. There appeared to be little or no difference between the fim-/fla+ and wild-type (fim+/fla+) strains. In contrast, the numbers of aflagellate (fim+/fla- or fim-/fla-) salmonella in the liver and spleen were transiently reduced. In addition, fim+/fla- or fim-/fla-strains were less able to persist in the upper gastrointestinal tract and the inflammatory responses they elicited in the gut were less severe. Thus, expression of SEF14, SEF17, SEF21, pef and lpf did not appear to be a prerequisite for induction of S. Enteritidis infection in the rat. Deletion of flagella did, however, disadvantage the bacterium. This may be due to the inability to produce or release the potent immunomodulating protein flagellin.

Flagella and curli fimbriae are important for the growth of Salmonella enterica serovars in hen eggs

Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis is unable to multiply in the albumen of fresh eggs and must gain access to the yolk contents in order to multiply to a high level (> 10(6) c.f.u. per ml egg contents). As human Salmonella infections resulting from the consumption of infected eggs more frequently involve serovar Enteritidis phage type (PT) 4 than other serovars or PTs, a number of isolates of various S. enterica serovars were examined for their ability to multiply to a high level in eggs over a period of 8 days storage at 20 degreesC. Their behaviour was compared to that of a range of defined fimbrial and flagella mutants of S. Enteritidis. Strains that did not express flagella were unable to multiply in eggs, and those deficient for curli fimbriae, including strains of S. Enteritidis PT6, displayed high-level growth in significantly fewer eggs than those able to express curli. Most S. Enteritidis strains multiplied to a high level in between 5 and 10 % of eggs during 8 days storage. One PT4 strain, though, showed high levels of growth in more than 25 % of eggs over this period, significantly higher than the other PTs or the two other isolates of PT4 tested. This ability may be important for the association of PT4 infection with the consumption of eggs.

Colonization of 8-week-old conventionally reared goats by Escherichia coli O157:H7 after oral inoculation

Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157 : H7 infections of man have been associated with consumption of unpasteurized goat's milk and direct contact with kid goats on petting farms, yet little is known about colonization of goats with this organism. To assess the contribution of flagella and intimin of E coli O157 : H7 in colonization of the goat, 8-week-old conventionally reared goats were inoculated orally in separate experiments with 1 X 10(10) c.f.u. of a non-verotoxigenic strain of E coli O157: H7 (strain NCTC 12900 Nal(r)), an aflagellate derivative (DMB1) and an intimin-deficient derivative (DMB2). At 24 In after inoculation, the three E coli O157 : H7 strains were shed at approximately 5 X 1 04 c.f.u. (g faeces)(-1) from all animals. Significantly fewer intimin-deficient bacteria were shed only on days 2 (P = 0(.)003) and 4 (P = 0(.)014), whereas from day 7 to 29 there were no differences. Tissues from three animals inoculated with wild-type E coli O157 : H7 strain NCTC 12900 Nalr were sampled at 24,48 and 96 In after inoculation and the organism was cultured from the large intestine of all three animals and from the duodenum and ileum of the animal examined at 96 h. Tissues were examined histologically but attaching-effacing (AE) lesions were not observed at any intestinal site of the animals examined at 24 or 48 In. However, the animal examined at 96 h, which had uniquely shed approximately 1 x 10(7) E coli O157: H7 (g faeces)(-1) for the preceding 3 days, showed a heavy, diffuse infection with cryptosporidia. and abundant, multifocal AE lesions in the distal colon, rectum and at the recto-anal junction. These AE lesions were confirmed by immunohistochemistry to be associated with E coli O157: H7.

Influence of colostrum deprivation and concurrent Cryptosporidium parvum infection on the colonization and persistence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in young lambs

Escherichia coli O157: H7 and Cryptosporidium parvum infections of man have been associated with direct contact with small ruminants. Colostrum protects neonates against gastrointestinal pathogens, and orphan lambs, which are common on petting farms, may be deprived of this protection. In a recent study, it was demonstrated that high shedding of E coli O157 : H7 by an 8-week-old goat kid was associated with coincidental C. parvum infection. Furthermore, both pathogens were co-located in the distal gastrointestinal tract. It was hypothesized that colostrum deprivation and pre-infection with C. parvum predisposed young ruminants to colonization and increased shedding of E coli O157: H7. To test this, 21 lambs 5 weeks of age were divided into four groups as follows: (A) colostrum-deprived and inoculated with E coli O157: H7, (B) colostrum-deprived and inoculated with C. parvum and then E coli O157: H7, (C) conventionally reared and inoculated with E coli O157: H7, (D) conventionally reared and inoculated with C. parvum and then E coli O15 7: H7. C. parvum was detected between 8 and 12 days post-inoculation in most of the infected lambs. At 24 h post-inoculation with E coli O157: H7, all lambs were shedding between 5 x 10(4) and 5 x 10(7) c.f.u. E coli O157: H7 per gram of faeces. E coli O157: H7 was shed in higher numbers in the groups pre-inoculated with C. parvum, whether conventionally reared or colostrum-deprived. Interestingly, for the colostrum-deprived lambs on day 3, a significant difference in shedding of E coli O157: H7 was observed (P= 0-038), with the lambs inoculated with E coli alone yielding higher counts than those pre-inoculated with C. parvum. From day 15 onwards, shedding of E coli O157: H7 was highest from the colostrum-deprived C. parvum-infected lambs, then (in descending order of shedding) the colostrum-deprived lambs, the conventionally reared lambs infected with C. parvum, and the conventionally reared animals. In total, four animals were euthanized, two at 24 h and two at 96 h post inoculation with E coli 0 157: H7 (two conventionally reared and two colostrum-deprived). All animals euthanized were from groups pre-inoculated with C. parvum prior to challenge with E coli O157 : H7. On examination of tissues, in three of the four animals examined, multifocal attaching and effacing lesions were observed in the caecum, colon, rectum and at the recto-anal junction, and were confirmed by immunolhistochemistry to be associated with E coli O157: H7.

Influence of geographical origin, host animal and stx gene on the virulence characteristics of Escherichia coli O26 strains

The influence of geographical origin, host animal and presence of the stx gene on the virulence of Escherichia coli O26 strains from ruminants was determined in this study. A clear association was found between the virulence profile and geographical origin of Shiga-toxigenic E. coli (STEC) O26 strains, with UK STEC O26 strains harbouring virtually identical profiles, whilst central European strains showed considerable heterogeneity in plasmid-encoded genes. The former group were also more likely to be non-motile and katP gene positive. Comparison of UK STEC and atypical enteropathogenic E. coli (aEPEC O26 strains showed that the presence of the stx1 gene was positively correlated with the presence of espP and katP genes and negatively associated with the presence of the yagP-yagT region and with rhamnose fermentation. In contrast to the uniform profiles of STEC O26 strains from ruminants in the UK, aEPEC O26 strains of bovine and ovine origin showed diverse profiles both within and between groups, and could not be separated into discrete groups. These results indicate that the characteristics of UK O26 strains from ruminants are distinct from those of O26 strains from ruminants and humans in other regions in central Europe. Such differences are expected to influence the zoonotic potential of this pathogen and the subsequent incidence of O26-associated human disease.

Bis(azidophenyl)phosphole building block for extended π-conjugated systems

Novel bis(azidophenyl)phosphole sulfide building block 8 has been developed to give access to a plethora of phosphole-containing π-conjugated systems in a simple synthetic step. This was explored for the reaction of the two azido moieties with phenyl-, pyridyl- and thienylacetylenes, to give bis(aryltriazolyl)-extended π-systems, having either the phosphole sulfide (9) or the phosphole (10) group as central ring. These conjugated frameworks exhibit intriguing photophysical and electrochemical properties that vary with the nature of the aromatic end-group. The λ3-phospholes 10 display blue fluorescence (λem = 460–469 nm) with high quan-tum yield (ΦF = 0.134–0.309). The radical anion of pyridylsubstituted phosphole sulfide 9b was observed with UV/Vis spectroscopy. TDDFT calculations on the extended π-systems showed some variation in the shape of the HOMOs, which was found to have an effect on the extent of charge transfer, depending on the aromatic end-group. Some fine-tuning of the emission maxima was observed, albeit subtle, showing a decrease in conjugation in the order thienyl � phenyl � pyridyl. These results show that variations in the distal ends of such π-systems have a subtle but significant effect on photophysical properties.

Pricing and hedging short sterling options using artificial neural networks

This paper compares the performance of artificial neural networks (ANNs) with that of the modified Black model in both pricing and hedging Short Sterling options. Using high frequency data, standard and hybrid ANNs are trained to generate option prices. The hybrid ANN is significantly superior to both the modified Black model and the standard ANN in pricing call and put options. Hedge ratios for hedging Short Sterling options positions using Short Sterling futures are produced using the standard and hybrid ANN pricing models, the modified Black model, and also standard and hybrid ANNs trained directly on the hedge ratios. The performance of hedge ratios from ANNs directly trained on actual hedge ratios is significantly superior to those based on a pricing model, and to the modified Black model.

Introduction: the policy trajectory of Fair Trade

This paper provides a selective review of literature on fair trade and introduces contributions to this Policy Arena. It focuses on policy practice as a dynamic process, highlighting the changing configurations of actors, policy spaces, knowledge, practices and commodities that are shaping the policy trajectory of fair trade. It highlights how recent literature has tackled questions of mainstreaming as part of this trajectory, bringing to the fore dimensions of change associated with the market, state and civil society.

Electrochemical reductive deprotonation of an imidazole ligand in a bipyridine tricarbonyl rhenium(I) complex

The reduction path of the complex fac-[ReΙ(imH)(CO)3(bpy)]+ was studied in situ by UV-Vis-NIR-IR spectroelectrochemistry within an OTTLE cell. The complex undergoes 1e‒ reduction of the 2,2'-bipyridine (bpy) ligand and intramolecular electron transfer resulting in the conversion of the axial imidazole (imH) ligand to 3-imidazolate (3-im–). This step is followed by two bpy-based 1e– reductions producing ultimately the five-coordinate complex [Re(CO)3(bpy)]‒ and free 3-im‒. The identity of the reduction product fac-[Re(3-im–)(CO)3(bpy)] has been proven by partial chemical deprotonation of the parent complex followed by IR spectroelectrochemistry. This is the first time when an electrochemical conversion of metal-coordinated imidazole to terminal 3-imidazolate has been observed.