Methods matter: computational modelling in public health policy and planning

This work is aimed at understanding and unifying information on epidemiological modelling methods and how those methods relate to public policy addressing human health, specifically in the context of infectious disease prevention, pandemic planning, and health behaviour change. This thesis employs multiple qualitative and quantitative methods, and presents as a manuscript of several individual, data-driven projects that are combined in a narrative arc. The first chapter introduces the scope and complexity of this interdisciplinary undertaking, describing several topical intersections of importance. The second chapter begins the presentation of original data, and describes in detail two exercises in computational epidemiological modelling pertinent to pandemic influenza planning and policy, and progresses in the next chapter to present additional original data on how the confidence of the public in modelling methodology may have an effect on their planned health behaviour change as recommended in public health policy. The thesis narrative continues in the final data-driven chapter to describe how health policymakers use modelling methods and scientific evidence to inform and construct health policies for the prevention of infectious diseases, and concludes with a narrative chapter that evaluates the breadth of this data and recommends strategies for the optimal use of modelling methodologies when informing public health policy in applied public health scenarios.

Map of the town of Morrisania /

Survey map showing block dimensions, street dimensions, street grades, and angle of street intersections. Does not show cadastral data.

Un modelo de predicción de tráfico en la ciudad de Ambato

Este artículo contiene el estudio inicial de un modelo de predicción de tráfico, que intenta mostrar cómo puede complementarse la toma de decisiones que afecten a la ciudad a través de una buena planificación vial. Esto permitirá dar alternativas posibles de solución mediante la predicción de flujos de tráfico y determinando las intersecciones de mayor influencia dentro de la red vial, lo que por consecuencia reduciría costes en tiempo, combustible, contaminación, etc., obteniendo así una herramienta de ayuda en la toma de decisiones respecto del tráfico. Específicamente, se utiliza modelos dinámicos lineales para predecir el tráfico en distintos puntos de una ciudad y, en consecuencia, pronosticar su eventual saturación. Se puede así predecir puntos de la ciudad en la que es necesario actuar para aliviar los problemas de tráfico antes de que éstos lleguen a manifestarse.

Transportation map of New Jersey.

Scale ca. 1:538,560; 1 in. represents approx. 8.5 miles.

Transportation map of New Jersey.

Scale ca. 1:538,560; 1 in. represents approx. 8.5 miles.

A flexibilidade no interior doméstico

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Arquitetura, apresentada na Universidade de Lisboa - Faculdade de Arquitetura.

Development of Safety Performance Functions for SafetyAnalyst Applications in Florida

In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency’s safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.

Spiritual Violence: Queer People and the Sacrament of Communion

This thesis addresses spiritual violence done to queer people in the sacrament of Communion, or Eucharist, in both Protestant and Roman Catholic churches in the U.S. Rooted in the sexual dimorphic interpretation of Genesis, theologians engendered Christianity with sexism and patriarchy, both of which have since developed into intricate intersections of oppressions. Religious abuse is founded on the tradition of exclusionary practices and is validated through narrow interpretations of Scripture that work to reassert the authority of the experiences of the dominant culture. The resultant culture of oppression manifests itself in ritualized spiritual violence. Queer people are deemed “unworthy” to take ‘the body and blood of the Christ’ and, in fact, are excluded altogether. This “unworthiness” is expressed as spiritual violence against queer people who are shunned and humiliated, internalize hateful messages, and are denied spiritual guidance or life-affirming messages. By “queering” Scripture, or reading the Bible anew through a framework of justice, queer people have begun to sacramentalize their experiences and reclaim their place at the table.

Three Spheres of Classification Research: Emergence, Encyclopedism, and Ecology

Three paths of interdisciplinary work shape the future of classification research.emergence, encyclopedism, and ecology. Each of these, in method, approach, and in substantive inquiry outline both the boundaries and the intersections of the many fields that contribute to our overall understanding of classification research. This paper outlines some high level claims of this work, ties it to current research and offers some theoretical applications of these paths.

Gender, class and the household economy in Scotland in the ‘Age of affluence’

From early 1950s to the early 1970s Britain is said to have experienced an ‘age of affluence’. Whilst material conditions for many households improved in these decades, this detailed examination of budget management processes shows that for many working-class households, these gains were the product of hard work and careful money management. Using oral history methodology, this thesis explores lived experiences of the household economy to illuminate these qualifications to ‘affluence’. In so doing, this thesis advances analysis which considers the relationship between the macro-level economic conditions of affluence and the everyday economic realities of households in the post-war period. The thesis examines the operation of the household economy and shows how working-class households utilised domestic labour, budgeting, paid work, credit and thrift to make ends meet, as well as to achieve ‘affluence’. Further, by exploring these areas of the household economy, this thesis shows that gendered ideology continued to preserve power and material inequalities between men and women. Although considerable change did occur, particularly involvement in the paid labour market, domestic responsibilities continued to be an important focus of women’s identities and the effective performance of these duties by women remained central to the success of the household. This thesis represents a fresh focus on how the exploration of everyday life, including the salience of ideological continuities in shaping experience, can qualify and refine our understanding of twentieth century economic and social change, and contributes to socio-historical understandings of ‘affluence’ and its intersections with the household, gender, and class.

Ficciones palpables: una aproximación a la configuración de la reputación y su relación con la memoria en la novela Las reputaciones de Juan Gabriel Vásquez

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo analizar los espacios comunes entre los conceptos de memoria y reputación en la novela Las Reputaciones de Juan Gabriel Vásquez. En esta medida, se planteará que la formación del recuerdo individual y colectivo está mediada por prácticas políticas que pretenden una determinada reputación y que no solo influyen sobre la manera misma en que se hace memoria sino que además son determinantes en la imagen de unas figuras como los personajes Javier Mallarino, Samanta Leal y Adolfo Cuellar. Para llevar a cabo este planteamiento se tendrán en cuenta los conceptos de política desde Jaques Rancière, y memoria de Paul Ricoeur y Pilar Riaño, que serán analizados desde el enfoque filosófico de la ciencia política.

Grandes historias a pasos cortos

Documental de carácter intimista protagonizado por Paola Nieto, Álvaro Novoa y Mauricio Ardila, tres personas que a raíz de su enanismo siempre han visto el mundo desde una perspectiva única. En su día a día, enfrentan complejos estereotipos sociales y estigmas por su baja estatura, pero a través de su profesión, su vida social y acompañados de sus seres queridos, han superado esos retos para vivir a plenitud en un mundo de gigantes.

Applying fuzzy logic to comparative distribution modelling: a case study with two sympatric amphibians.

We modelled the distributions of two toads (Bufo bufo and Epidalea calamita) in the Iberian Peninsula using the favourability function, which makes predictions directly comparable for different species and allows fuzzy logic operations to relate different models. The fuzzy intersection between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of both species simultaneously, was compared with another favourability model built on the presences shared by both species. The fuzzy union between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of any of the two species, was compared with another favourabilitymodel based on the presences of either or both of them. The fuzzy intersections between favourability for each species and the complementary of favourability for the other (corresponding to the logical operation “A and not B”) were compared with models of exclusive presence of one species versus the exclusive presence of the other. The results of modelling combined species data were highly similar to those of fuzzy logic operations between individual models, proving fuzzy logic and the favourability function valuable for comparative distribution modelling. We highlight several advantages of fuzzy logic over other forms of combining distribution models, including the possibility to combine multiple species models for management and conservation planning.

Feminist environmental humanities: intertwining theory and speculative fiction

This dissertation explores the entanglement between the visionary capacity of feminist theory to shape sustainable futures and the active contribution of feminist speculative fiction to the conceptual debate about the climate crisis. Over the last few years, increasing critical attention has been paid to ecofeminist perspectives on climate change, that see as a core cause of the climate crisis the patriarchal domination of nature, considered to go hand in hand with the oppression of women. What remains to be thoroughly scrutinised is the linkage between ecofeminist theories and other ethical stances capable of countering colonising epistemologies of mastery and dominion over nature. This dissertation intervenes in the debate about the master narrative of the Anthropocene, and about the one-dimensional perspective that often characterises its literary representations, from a feminist perspective that also aims at decolonising the imagination; it looks at literary texts that consider patriarchal domination of nature in its intersections with other injustices that play out within the Anthropocene, with a particular focus on race, colonialism, and capitalism. After an overview of the linkages between gender and climate change and between feminism and environmental humanities, it introduces the genre of climate fiction examining its main tropes. In an attempt to find alternatives to the mainstream narrative of the Anthropocene (namely to its gender-neutrality, colour-blindness, and anthropocentrism), it focuses on contemporary works of speculative fiction by four Anglophone women authors that particularly address the inequitable impacts of climate change experienced not only by women, but also by sexualised, racialised, and naturalised Others. These texts were chosen because of their specific engagement with the relationship between climate change, global capitalism, and a flat trust in techno-fixes on the one hand, and structural inequalities generated by patriarchy, racism, and intersecting systems of oppression on the other.

Temporalities of migration: time, data infrastructures and intervention

The dissertation explores the intersections between the temporalities of migration management and border-crossers’ temporalities. First, I analyze the relation between acceleration and (non)knowledge production by focusing on the “accelerated procedures” for asylum. These procedures are applied to people whose asylum applications are deemed as suspicious and likely to be rejected. I argue that the shortened timeframes shaping these procedures are a tool for hindering asylum seekers’ possibilities to collect and produce evidence supporting their cases, eventually facilitating and speeding up their removal for Member States’ territory. Second, I analyze the encounters between migration management and border-crossers during the identification practices carried out the Hotspots and during the asylum process in terms of “temporal collisions”. I develop the notion of “hijacked knowledge” to illustrate how these “temporal collisions” negatively affect border-crossers’ possibilities of action, by producing a significant lack of knowledge and awareness about the procedures to which they are subjected and their temporal implications. With the concept of “reactive calibration”, on the other hand, I suggest that once migrants become aware of the temporalities of control, they try to appropriate them by aligning their bodies, narrations and identities to those temporalities. The third part of the dissertation describes the situated intervention developed as part of my ethnographic activity. Drawing on participatory design, design justice and STS making and doing, I designed a role-playing game - My documents, check them out - seeking to involve border-crossers in the re-design of the categories usually deployed in migration management.