Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Influence of liming on residual soil respiration and chemical properties in a tropical no-tillage system

Devido às mudanças climáticas do planeta, principalmente ao aquecimento global, as formas de utilização dos solos na agricultura têm atraído grande atenção de pesquisadores. Mudanças de manejo podem influenciar a respiração do solo e, por conseguinte, alterar drasticamente o sequestro de C. Os objetivos deste trabalho foram avaliar, em semeadura direta, a influência da calagem nas emissões de CO2 do solo e correlacioná-las aos atributos químicos deste após dois anos da calagem. Utilizou-se o delineamento em blocos casualizados, com seis repetições. Os tratamentos constituíram de quatro doses de calcário e uma testemunha. Decorridos dois anos da calagem, avaliou-se a emissão residual de CO2 do solo, coletaram-se amostras nas camadas de 0-5, 5-10, 10-20 e 20-30 cm de profundidade e determinaram-se os teores de P, Ca2+ e Mg2+ e valores de pH e de saturação por bases. A emissão residual de CO2 do solo, quando a dose recomendada foi aplicada, foi 24,1 % superior, quando comparada à do solo sem aplicação de calcário, e 47,4 % maior, quando se aplicou o dobro da dose recomendada. A calagem melhorou as condições químicas do solo, e a emissão de CO2 aumentou linearmente com o aumento das doses. A emissão de CO2 do solo apresentou correlações positivas com os teores de P, Ca2+ e Mg2+ e com os valores de pH e de saturação por bases e negativas com os teores de H + Al e Al3+. Maiores coeficientes de correlação entre as taxas de emissão de CO2 do solo e os atributos químicos deste ocorreram na camada de 10-20 cm.

Local and regional features of surface radiation fluxes over the tropical Atlantic ocean near Sao Pedro and Sao Paulo archipelago: Evidence of small scale upwelling

To properly describe the interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, it is necessary to assess a variety of time and spatial scales phenomena. Here, high resolution oceanographic and meteorological data collected during an observational campaign carried out aboard a ship in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, on May 15-24, 2002, is used to describe the radiation balance at the ocean interface. Data collected by two PIRATA buoys, along the equator at 23°W and 35°W and satellite and climate data are compared with the data obtained during the observational campaign. Comparison indicates remarkable similarity for daily and hourly values of radiation fluxes components as consequence of the temporal and spatial consistence presented by the air and water temperatures measured in situ and estimated from large scale information. The discrepancy, mainly in the Sao Pedro and Sao Paulo Archipelago area, seems to be associated to the local upwelling of cold water, which is not detected in all other estimates investigated here. More in situ data are necessary to clarify whether this upwelling flow has a larger scale effect and what are the meteorological and oceanographic implications of the local upwelling area on the tropical waters at the Brazilian coast.

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the health sector in the Caribbean

Climate change affects the fundamental bases of good human health, which are clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and secure shelter. Climate change is known to impact health through three climate dimensions: extreme heat, natural disasters, and infections and diseases. The temporal and spatial climatic changes that will affect the biology and ecology of vectors and intermediate hosts are likely to increase the risks of disease transmission. The greatest effect of climate change on disease transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission typically occurs. Caribbean countries are marked by unique geographical and geological features. When combined with their physical, infrastructural development, these features make them relatively more prone to negative impacts from changes in climatic conditions. The increased variability of climate associated with slow-moving tropical depressions has implications for water quality through flooding as well as hurricanes. Caribbean countries often have problems with water and sanitation. These problems are exacerbated whenever there is excess rainfall, or no rainfall. The current report aims to prepare the Caribbean to respond better to the anticipated impact of climate change on the health sector, while fostering a subregional Caribbean approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. It provides a major advance on the analytical and contextual issues surrounding the impact of climate change on health in the Caribbean by focusing on the vector-borne and waterborne diseases that are anticipated to be impacted directly by climate change. The ultimate goal is to quantify both the direct and indirect costs associated with each disease, and to present adaptation strategies that can address these health concerns effectively to benefit the populations of the Caribbean.

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the water sector in the Caribbean

The Caribbean is not homogenous with regard to water resources. The Caribbean climate can be characterized as tropical rainy, with two well-defined seasons, one, rainy, and another, less rainy: these characteristics have specificities according to the geographical location of each country. The rainy, tropical character of the Caribbean climate may suggest that there are enough water resources to satisfy life requirements. Notwithstanding, the availability and distribution of water depends on geological and geographical factors that—given the insular character and characteristics of each country—make water resources both vulnerable and limited.

Policy Brief: an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean

Caribbean policymakers are faced with special challenges from climate change and these are related to the uncertainties inherent in future climate projections and the complex linkages among climate change, physical and biological systems and socioeconomic sectors. The impacts of climate change threaten development in the Caribbean and may well erode previous gains in development as evidenced by the increased incidence of climate migrants internationally. This brief which is based on a recent study conducted by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (LC/CAR/L.395)1 provides a synthesis of the assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean which were undertaken. It provides Caribbean policymakers with cutting-edge information on the region’s vulnerability and encourages the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and expert knowledge. It proceeds from an acknowledgement that the unique combination of natural resources, ecosystems, economic activities, and human population settlements of the Caribbean will not be immune to the impacts of climate change, and local communities, countries and the subregion as a whole need to plan for, and adapt to, these effects. Climate and extreme weather hazards related to the coastal and marine sector encompass the distinct but related factors of sea level rise, increasing coastal water temperatures, tropical storms and hurricanes. Potential vulnerabilities for coastal zones include increased shoreline erosion leading to alteration of the coastline, loss of coastal wetlands, and changes in the abundance and diversity of fish and other marine populations. The study examines four key themes in the analysis: climate, vulnerability, economic and social costs associated with climate change impacts, and adaptive measures.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Bahamas

The Bahamas is at great risk and vulnerability given its geographical features as a low-lying, sea encircled country. If projected sea level rise is reached by 2050, between 10-12% of territory will be lost, especially in coastal zones where the main tourism assets are located. Vulnerability could also be manifested if flight carbon emission taxes are established in the main source markets, representing an economic threat to the tourism sector for the islands. The impact of climate change on main tourism demand variables will cause some losses to the country‟s income and government revenues. This would be acting conjointly with some local threats to tourism assets and trends in future global tourism demand. The second and no less important threat is tropical cyclones, which may be associated with raising sea level. Estimations posited the amount of losses in excess of 2400 million US$ for the four decades under examination. It is to be pointed out that there is still a lack of comparatively accurate data collection and analysis on this subject, a point deserving more attention in order to deepen the understanding of, and to extract better lessons from these extreme events. In the same period, total estimated impacts of progressive climate change are between 17 and 19 billions of B$ with estimated discount rates applied. The Bahamas is a Small Island Developing State with low growth on GHG emissions (second in Latin America), as well as a relative short capacity to lower emissions in the future. The country has a relative delay in the application of renewable energy systems, a solution that, provided documented studies on-site, might turn out to be fundamental in the country‟s efforts to establish mitigation related policies. The Bahamas currently has institutions and organizations that deal with climate change-related issues and an important number of measures and courses of action have been set up by the government. Nevertheless, more coordination among them is needed and should include international institutions. This coordination is essential even for the first steps, i.e. to conduct studies with a bottom-up approach in order to draw more accurate programs on adaptation and mitigation. It is fundamental for tourism to keep track of potential losses in tourist attractions (and to act accordingly), related to correspondent losses in biodiversity, water resources and coastal erosion. Also, actions to fight climate change impacts might improve the islands security standards, quality of living and protect cultural and heritage assets. These elements may definitely shape the future of the country‟s competitiveness as a tourism destination. It is possible and necessary to decide about the options with good cost-benefit ratio and reasonable payback periods, notwithstanding that cost-benefit analysis requires more refined and accurate data to provide precise and locally adapted options.

Desempenho de híbridos experimentais de couve brócolos do tipo cabeça única em condições de verão tropical

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Horticultura) - FCA

Variabilidade quantitativa de população microbiana associada às condições microclimáticas observadas em solo de floresta tropical úmida

Este estudo é uma proposta de contribuição científica ao entendimento das inter-relações entre densidade de populações de microorganismos de solo, associadas à variabilidade microclimática sazonal em floresta tropical úmida, considerando também estudo de caso de evento extremo. Alguns organismos vivos, especialmente microorganismos de solo, são muito sensíveis às pequenas variações microclimáticas (luminosidade, temperatura, umidade do solo, vento, calor sensível, calor latente, etc. Seguramente estes fatores condicionantes são importantes para o entendimento da distribuição espacial destes seres vivos em ecossistemas naturais, habitados por uma enorme variedade de microorganismos (fungos e bactérias). Estes foram estudados quanto sua distribuição e densidade, utilizando a técnica "Pour Plate" de contagem em placas de "Petri" seguindo a metodologia utilizada por De-Polli e Guerra, descrita por Clark. O estudo foi realizado em duas áreas experimentais, PPBio (área de floresta densa natural) e ESECAFLOR (área de um hectare coberta para simulação de seca prolongada) em Caxiuanã-PA, com medidas contínuas de variáveis microclimáticas térmicas, úmidas e precipitações, além da avaliação de padrões de distribuição espacial e temporal da abundância e riqueza das espécies, para estabelecer um sistema de monitoramento de fungos e bactérias de solo associado à variabilidade climática na floresta nacional de Caxiuanã. As áreas experimentais são predominantemente de Yellow Latossolo. As análises microbiológicas mostraram que fungos desenvolveram-se melhor em época seca e bactérias na época chuvosa. Suas populações diminuem com a profundidade, exceto em ambiente alterado. As correlações de variações sazonais entre populações de fungos e bactérias e as variáveis temperatura e umidade do solo, se estabeleceram satisfatoriamente para qualquer época do ano em ambos os sítios estudados.

The mineralogy and chemistry of the German and Portuguese tiles used to face a historic building in the Amazon region and their natural susceptibility to tropical weathering

As proeminentes edificações da cidade de Belém foram revestidas durante o século 19 com azulejos produzidos em Portugal e Alemanha que já apresentam distintos graus de degradação. O Palacete Pinho é uma das mais importantes destas edificações e foi selecionado para se investigar a ação do clima tropical amazônico sobre a degradação destes azulejos. Para atingir estes objetivos mapearam-se os azulejos desta edificação visando identificar as modificações de origem orgânica e inorgânica e coletas de amostras para análises. Os minerais foram determinados por DRX, a composição química por métodos clássicos úmidos e MEV/SED e os micro-organismos por microscopia. Os resultados obtidos mostram que os azulejos Portugueses e Alemães são distintos entre si. Enquanto o biscoito é composto de SiO₂ e Al₂O₃, CaO foi encontrado apenas nos Portugueses. Os baixos conteúdos de Na₂O e K₂O indicam adição de materiais para redução da temperatura de fusão. SiO₂ e PbO compõem o vidrado, já CoO e FeO foram adicionados como pigmentos. O biscoito dos azulejos Alemães é constituído de quartzo, mullita e cristobalita, ao contrário do Português com quartzo, gehlenita, diopsídio, calcita e feldspatos. Os vidrados são amorfos ao DRX. As diferenças químicas e mineralógicas entre os azulejos Portugueses e Alemães indicam que foram produzidos por matéria prima distinta, bem como processo termal. As alterações relacionadas com o intemperismo são as finas camadas de detritos (nos Alemães), manchas de oxidação, manchas escuras, descolamento do azulejo (no Português); perda de vidrado e biscoito tornando-se pulverulento como consequência do estabelecimento de Cyanophyta e bacillariophyta (Português). As distintas feições de degradação dos azulejos refletem as suas diferenças mineralógicas e químicas expostas ao clima tropical Amazônico.

Modelos acoplados do IPCC-AR4 e o gradiente meridional de temperatura da superfície do mar no Atlântico Tropical: relações com a precipitação no norte do nordeste do Brasil

Este artigo mostra como três modelos acoplados do Intergovernmental on Panel Climate Change - (IPCC-AR4), o FGOALS1.0G - LASG do Institute of Atmospheric Physics of China, o GISSER da National Aeronautics Space Admnistration (NASA) e o GFDL_CM2 da National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), simularam a variabilidade do gradiente meridional de Temperatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM), entre os meses de fevereiro a maio, no Atlântico Tropical (1901-1999). A precipitação durante a estação chuvosa (fevereiro a maio) no setor norte do Nordeste do Brasil (NEB) foi também analisada pelos três modelos e comparada com as observações. Os modelos GISSER e FGOALS1.0G mostraram melhor desempenho na simulação do sinal do gradiente meridional de TSM no Atlântico Tropical para o período de 1901 a 1999. Destaca-se que os modelos apresentaram um melhor desempenho na simulação da tendência decadal, conseguindo explicar entre 50% a 80% da variabilidade do gradiente, com a TSM do setor sul sendo melhor simulada.

Using phenology to assess urban heat islands in tropical and temperate regions

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The Genetic Architecture of Climatic Adaptation of Tropical Cattle

Adaptation of global food systems to climate change is essential to feed the world. Tropical cattle production, a mainstay of profitability for farmers in the developing world, is dominated by heat, lack of water, poor quality feedstuffs, parasites, and tropical diseases. In these systems European cattle suffer significant stock loss, and the cross breeding of taurine x indicine cattle is unpredictable due to the dilution of adaptation to heat and tropical diseases. We explored the genetic architecture of ten traits of tropical cattle production using genome wide association studies of 4,662 animals varying from 0% to 100% indicine. We show that nine of the ten have genetic architectures that include genes of major effect, and in one case, a single location that accounted for more than 71% of the genetic variation. One genetic region in particular had effects on parasite resistance, yearling weight, body condition score, coat colour and penile sheath score. This region, extending 20 Mb on BTA5, appeared to be under genetic selection possibly through maintenance of haplotypes by breeders. We found that the amount of genetic variation and the genetic correlations between traits did not depend upon the degree of indicine content in the animals. Climate change is expected to expand some conditions of the tropics to more temperate environments, which may impact negatively on global livestock health and production. Our results point to several important genes that have large effects on adaptation that could be introduced into more temperate cattle without detrimental effects on productivity.

Biological Hydrogen production from environmental sample in tropical countries

The hydrogen gas is regarded as clean and renewable energy source, since it generates only water during combustion when used as fuel. It shows 2.75 times more energy content than any hydrocarbon and it can be converted into electrical, mechanical energy or heat. Inoculum sources have been successfully tested for hydrogen biological production in temperate climate countries as sludge treatment plants sewage, sludge treatment plant wastewater, landfill sample, among others. However, hydrogen biologic production with inoculum from environmental samples such as sediment reservoirs, especially in tropical countries like Brazil, is rarely investigated. Reservoirs and fresh water lake sediment may contain conditions for the survival of a wide variety of microorganisms which use different carbon sources mainly glucose and xylose, in the fermentation. Glucose is an easily biodegradable, present in most of the industrial effluents and can be obtained abundantly from agricultural wastes. A wide variety of wastewater resulting from agriculture, industry and pulp and paper processed from wood may contain xylose in its constitution. Such effluent contains glucose and xylose concentrations of about 2 g/L. In this sense, this work verified hydrogen biological production in anaerobic batch reactor (1L), at 37 ° C, initial pH 5.5, headspace with N2 (100%), Del Nery medium, vitamins and peptone (1 g/L), fed separately with glucose (2g/L) and xylose (2 g/L). The inoculum was taken from environmental sample (sediment reservoir Itupararanga - Ibiúna - SP-Brazil). It was previously purified in serial dilutions at H2 generation (10-5, 10-7, 10-10), and heat treated (90º C - 10 min) later to inhibited the H2 consumers. The maximum H2 generations obtained in both tests were observed at 552 h, as described below. At the reactors fed with glucose and xylose were observed, respectively, 9.1 and 8.6 mmol H2/L, biomass growth (0.2 and 0.2 nm); consumption of sugar concentrations 53.6% (1.1 glucose g/L) and 90.5% (1.8 xylose g/L); acetic acid generation (124.7 mg/L and 82.7 mg/L), butyric acid (134.0 mg/L and 230.4 mg/L) and there wasn’t methane generation in the reactors. Microscopic analysis of biomass in anaerobic reactors showed the predominance of Gram positive rods and rods with endospores, whose morphology is characteristic of H2-generating bacteria, in both tests. These species were selected from the natural environment. In DGGE analysis performed difference were observed between populations from inoculum and in tests. This analysis confirmed that some species of bacteria were selected which remained under the conditions imposed on the experiment. The efficiency of the pre-treatment of inoculum and the imposition of pH 5.5 inhibited methane-producing microorganisms and the consumers of H2. Therefore, the experimental conditions imposed allowed the attainment of bacterial consortium of producer H2 taken from an environmental sample with concentration of xylose and glucose similar to the ones of the industrial effluents.