The epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis mansoni where Biomphalaria tenagophila is the snail host

The epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis mansoni in the Municipality of Pedro de Toledo (State of S. Paulo, Brazil) since 1980, has been studied. In 1980 the prevalence evaluated by stool exams (Kato-Katz method) was 22.8% and no statistical difference at 5.0% level was observed between rural and urban zones. The intensity of infection was low (58.5 eggs/g of faeces); the highest prevalence and intensity of infection rates were observed within the group of from 5 to 29 years of age, respectively. The transmission of schistosomiasis usually occurred during leisure time. The majority of the carriers of the parasite were asymptomatic. Of the B. tenagophila examined only 0.4% were found to be infected. The control programme has been intensified from 1981 on resulting in a sharp decrease in the prevalence from 22.8% in 1980 to 6% at the present time. This result shows that, in spite of the control programme there is a residual human prevalence. A beginning has been made on the investigation into the possible causes of this residual prevalence (6.0% was maintained through out 1987).

Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

Malaria transmission model for different levels of acquired immunity and temperature-dependent parameters (vector)

OBJECTIVE: Describe the overall transmission of malaria through a compartmental model, considering the human host and mosquito vector. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed based on the following parameters: human host immunity, assuming the existence of acquired immunity and immunological memory, which boosts the protective response upon reinfection; mosquito vector, taking into account that the average period of development from egg to adult mosquito and the extrinsic incubation period of parasites (transformation of infected but non-infectious mosquitoes into infectious mosquitoes) are dependent on the ambient temperature. RESULTS: The steady state equilibrium values obtained with the model allowed the calculation of the basic reproduction ratio in terms of the model's parameters. CONCLUSIONS: The model allowed the calculation of the basic reproduction ratio, one of the most important epidemiological variables.

Correlation between HIV and HCV in Brazilian prisoners: evidence for parenteral transmission inside prison

OBJECTIVE: It is an accepted fact that confinement conditions increase the risk of some infections related to sexual and/or injecting drugs practices. Mathematical techniques were applied to estimate time-dependent incidence densities of HIV infection among inmates. METHODS: A total of 631 prisoners from a Brazilian prison with 4,900 inmates at that time were interviewed and their blood drawn. Risky behavior for HIV infection was analyzed, and serological tests for HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis were performed, intended as surrogates for parenteral and sexual HIV transmission, respectively. Mathematical techniques were used to estimate the incidence density ratio, as related to the time of imprisonment. RESULTS: Prevalence were: HIV -- 16%; HCV -- 34%; and syphilis -- 18%. The main risk behaviors related to HIV infection were HCV prevalence (OR=10.49) and the acknowledged use of injecting drugs (OR=3.36). Incidence density ratio derivation showed that the risk of acquiring HIV infection increases with the time of imprisonment, peaking around three years after incarceration. CONCLUSIONS: The correlation between HIV and HCV seroprevalence and the results of the mathematical analysis suggest that HIV transmission in this population is predominantly due to parenteral exposure by injecting drug, and that it increases with time of imprisonment.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Infant mortality rates according to socioeconomic status in a Brazilian city

OBJECTIVE: Data from municipal databases can be used to plan interventions aimed at reducing inequities in health care. The objective of the study was to determine the distribution of infant mortality according to an urban geoeconomic classification using routinely collected municipal data. METHODS: All live births (total of 42,381) and infant deaths (total of 731) that occurred between 1994 and 1998 in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil, were considered. Four different geoeconomic areas were defined according to the family head's income in each administrative urban zone. RESULTS: The trends for infant mortality rate and its different components, neonatal mortality rate and post-neonatal mortality rate, decreased in Ribeirão Preto from 1994 to 1998 (chi-square for trend, p<0.05). These rates were inversely correlated with the distribution of lower salaries in the geoeconomic areas (less than 5 minimum wages per family head), in particular the post-neonatal mortality rate (chi-square for trend, p<0.05). Finally, the poor area showed a steady increase in excess infant mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that infant mortality rates are associated with social inequality and can be monitored using municipal databases. The findings also suggest an increase in the impact of social inequality on infant health in Ribeirão Preto, especially in the poor area. The monitoring of health inequalities using municipal databases may be an increasingly more useful tool given the continuous decentralization of health management at the municipal level in Brazil.

A congestion management and transmission price simulator for competitive electricity markets

In a liberalized electricity market, the Transmission System Operator (TSO) plays a crucial role in power system operation. Among many other tasks, TSO detects congestion situations and allocates the payments of electricity transmission. This paper presents a software tool for congestion management and transmission price determination in electricity markets. The congestion management is based on a reformulated Optimal Power Flow (OPF), whose main goal is to obtain a feasible solution for the re-dispatch minimizing the changes in the dispatch proposed by the market operator. The transmission price computation considers the physical impact caused by the market agents in the transmission network. The final tariff includes existing system costs and also costs due to the initial congestion situation and losses costs. The paper includes a case study for the IEEE 30 bus power system.

Fast optimum-predictive control and capacitor voltage balancing strategy for bipolar back-to-back NPC converters in high-voltage direct current transmission systems

Multilevel power converters have been introduced as the solution for high-power high-voltage switching applications where they have well-known advantages. Recently, full back-to-back connected multilevel neutral point diode clamped converters (NPC converter) have been used inhigh-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems. Bipolar-connected back-to-back NPC converters have advantages in long-distance HVDCtransmission systems over the full back-to-back connection, but greater difficulty to balance the dc capacitor voltage divider on both sending and receiving end NPC converters. This study shows that power flow control and dc capacitor voltage balancing are feasible using fast optimum-predictive-based controllers in HVDC systems using bipolar back-to-back-connected five-level NPC multilevel converters. For both converter sides, the control strategytakes in account active and reactive power, which establishes ac grid currents in both ends, and guarantees the balancing of dc bus capacitor voltages inboth NPC converters. Additionally, the semiconductor switching frequency is minimised to reduce switching losses. The performance and robustness of the new fast predictive control strategy, and its capability to solve the DC capacitor voltage balancing problem of bipolar-connected back-to-back NPCconverters are evaluated.

HVDC transmission systems: Bipolar back-to-back diode clamped multilevel converter with fastoptimum-predictive control and capacitor balancing strategy

Voltage source multilevel power converter structures are being considered for high power high voltage applications where they have well known advantages. Recently, full back-to-back connected multilevel neutral diode clamped converters (NPC) have been used in high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems. Bipolar back-to-back connection of NPCs have advantages in long distance HVDC transmission systems, but highly increased difficulties to balance the dc capacitor voltage dividers on both sending and receiving end NPCs. This paper proposes a fast optimum-predictive controller to balance the dc capacitor voltages and to control the power flow in a long distance HVDCsystem using bipolar back-to-back connected NPCs. For both converter sides, the control strategy considers active and reactive power to establish ac grid currents on sending and receiving ends, while guaranteeing the balancing of both NPC dc bus capacitor voltages. Furthermore, the fast predictivecontroller minimizes the semiconductor switching frequency to reduce global switching losses. The performance and robustness of the new fast predictive control strategy and the associated dc capacitors voltage balancing are evaluated. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scheduling maintenance activities of electric power transmission networks using an hybrid constraint method

In this paper we present a Constraint Logic Programming (CLP) based model, and hybrid solving method for the Scheduling of Maintenance Activities in the Power Transmission Network. The model distinguishes from others not only because of its completeness but also by the way it models and solves the Electric Constraints. Specifically we present a efficient filtering algorithm for the Electrical Constraints. Furthermore, the solving method improves the pure CLP methods efficiency by integrating a type of Local Search technique with CLP. To test the approach we compare the method results with another method using a 24 bus network, which considerers 42 tasks and 24 maintenance periods.

Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo technique for reliability assessment in transmission power systems

This paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system. The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment’s effect on the transmission network. A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Entomological aspects of Chagas' disease transmission in the domestic habitat, Argentina

OBJECTIVE: To study the risk of Trypanosoma cruzi domestic transmission using an entomological index and to explore its relationship with household's characteristics and cultural aspects. METHODS: There were studied 158 households in an endemic area in Argentina. Each household was classified according to an entomological risk indicator (number of risky bites/human). A questionnaire was administered to evaluate risk factors among householders. RESULTS: Infested households showed a wide range of risk values (0 to 5 risky bites/human) with skewed distribution, a high frequency of lower values and few very high risk households. Of all collected Triatoma infestans, 44% had had human blood meals whereas 27% had had dogs or chickens blood meals. Having dogs and birds sharing room with humans increased the risk values. Tidy clean households had contributed significantly to lower risk values as a result of low vector density. The infested households showed a 24.3% correlation between time after insecticide application and the number of vectors. But there was no correlation between the time after insecticide application and T. infestans' infectivity. The statistical analysis showed a high correlation between current values of the entomological risk indicator and Trypanosoma cruzi seroprevalence in children. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of T. cruzi domestic transmission assessed using an entomological index show a correlation with children seroprevalence for Chagas' disease and householders' habits.

Transmission price simulator in a liberalized electricity market

This paper presents a software tool (SIM_CMTP) that solves congestion situations and evaluates the taxes to be paid to the transmission system by market agents. SIM_CMTP provides users with a set of alternative methods for cost allocation and enables the definition of specific rules, according to each market and/or situation needs. With these characteristics, SIM_CMTP can be used as an operation aid for Transmission System Operator (TSO) or Independent System Operator (ISO). Due to its openness, it can also be used as a decision-making support tool for evaluating different options of market rules in competitive market environment, guarantying the economic sustainability of the transmission system.

Transmission costs allocation based on optimal re-dispatch

Congestion management of transmission power systems has achieve high relevance in competitive environments, which require an adequate approach both in technical and economic terms. This paper proposes a new methodology for congestion management and transmission tariff determination in deregulated electricity markets. The congestion management methodology is based on a reformulated optimal power flow, whose main goal is to obtain a feasible solution for the re-dispatch minimizing the changes in the transactions resulting from market operation. The proposed transmission tariffs consider the physical impact caused by each market agents in the transmission network. The final tariff considers existing system costs and also costs due to the initial congestion situation and losses. This paper includes a case study for the 118 bus IEEE test case.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems

This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.