Structure et évolution thermique de la croûte supérieure des chaînes de subduction : approches thermologique et modélisation numérique, dans les North Cascades (U.S.A) et de la zone de faille Motagua (Guatemala)

Cette thèse cible l'étude de la structure thermique de la croûte supérieure (<10km) dans les arcs magmatiques continentaux, et son influence sur l'enregistrement thermochronologique de leur exhumation et de leur évolution topographique. Nous portons notre regard sur deux chaînes de montagne appartenant aux Cordillères Américaines : Les Cascades Nord (USA) et la zone de faille Motagua (Guatemala). L'approche utilisée est axée sur la thermochronologie (U-Th-Sm)/He sur apatite et zircon, couplée avec la modélisation numérique de la structure thermique de la croûte. Nous mettons en évidence la variabilité à la fois spatiale et temporelle du gradient géothermique, et attirons l'attention du lecteur sur l'importance de prendre en compte la multitude des processus géologiques perturbant la structure thermique dans les chaînes de type cordillère, c'est à dire formées lors de la subduction océanique sous un continent.Une nouvelle approche est ainsi développée pour étudier et contraindre la perturbation thermique autour des chambres magmatiques. Deux profiles âge-elevation (U-Th-Sm)/He sur apatite et zircon, ont été collectées 7 km au sud du batholithe de Chilliwack, Cascades Nord. Les résultats montrent une variabilité spatiale et temporelle du gradient géothermique lors de l'emplacement magmatique qui peut être contrainte et séparé de l'exhumation. Durant l'emplacement de l'intrusion, la perturbation thermique y atteint un état d'équilibre (-80-100 °C/km) qui est fonction du flux de magma et de ia distance à la source du magma, puis rejoint 40 °C/km à la fin du processus d'emplacement magmatique.Quelques nouvelles données (U-Th)/He, replacées dans une compilation des données existantes dans les Cascades Nord, indiquent une vitesse d'exhumation constante (-100 m/Ma) dans le temps et l'espace entre 35 Ma et 2 Ma, associée à un soulèvement uniforme de la chaîne contrôlé par l'emplacement de magma dans la croûte durant toute l'activité de l'arc. Par contre, après ~2 Ma, le versant humide de la chaîne est affecté par une accélération des taux d'exhumation, jusqu'à 3 km de croûte y sont érodés. Les glaciations ont un triple effet sur l'érosion de cette chaîne: (1) augmentation des vitesses d'érosion, d'exhumation et de soulèvement la où les précipitations sont suffisantes, (2) limitation de l'altitude contrôlé par la position de Γ Ε LA, (3) élargissement du versant humide et contraction du versant aride de la chaîne.Les modifications des réseaux de drainage sont des processus de surface souvent sous-estimés au profil d'événements climatiques ou tectoniques. Nous proposons une nouvelle approche couplant une analyse géomorphologique, des données thermochronologiques de basse température ((U-Th-Sm)/He sur apatite et zircon), et l'utilisation de modélisation numérique thermo-cinématique pour les mettre en évidence et les dater; nous testons cette approche sur la gorge de la Skagit river dans les North Cascades.De nouvelles données (U-Th)/He sur zircons, complétant les données existantes, montrent que le déplacement horizontal le long de la faille transformante continentale Motagua, la limite des plaques Caraïbe/Amérique du Nord, a juxtaposé un bloc froid, le bloc Maya (s.s.), contre un bloque chaud, le bloc Chortis (s.s.) originellement en position d'arc. En plus de donner des gammes d'âges thermochronologiques très différents des deux côtés de la faille, le déplacement horizontal rapide (~2 cm/a) a produit un fort échange thermique latéral, résultant en un réchauffement du côté froid et un refroidissement du côté chaud de la zone de faille de Motagua.Enfin des données (U-Th-Sm)/He sur apatite témoignent d'un refroidissement Oligocène enregistré uniquement dans la croûte supérieure de la bordure nord de la zone de faille Motagua. Nous tenterons ultérieurement de reproduire ce découplage vertical de la structure thermique par la modélisation de la formation d'un bassin transtensif et de circulation de fluides le long de la faille de Motagua. - This thesis focuses on the influence of the dynamic thermal structure of the upper crust (<10km) on the thermochronologic record of the exhumational and topographic history of magmatic continental arcs. Two mountain belts from the American Cordillera are studied: the North Cascades (USA) and the Motagua fault zone (Guatemala). I use a combined approach coupling apatite and zircon (U-Th-Sm}/He thermochronology and thermo- kinematic numerical modelling. This study highlights the temporal and spatial variability of the geothermal gradient and the importance to take into account the different geological processes that perturb the thermal structure of Cordilleran-type mountain belts (i.e. mountain belts related to oceanic subduction underneath a continent}.We integrate apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He data with numerical thermo-kinematic models to study the relative effects of magmatic and surface processes on the thermal evolution of the crust and cooling patterns in the Cenozoic North Cascades arc (Washington State, USA). Two age-elevation profiles that are located 7 km south of the well-studied Chiliiwack intrusions shows that spatial and temporal variability in geothermal gradients linked to magma emplacement can be contrained and separated from exhumation processes. During Chiliiwack batholith emplacement at -35-20 Ma, the geothermal gradient of the country rocks increased to a very high steady-state value (80-100°C/km), which is likely a function of magma flux and the distance from the magma source area. Including temporally varying geothermal gradients in the analysis allows quantifying the thermal perturbation around magmatic intrusions and retrieving a relatively simple denudation history from the data.The synthesis of new and previously published (U-Th)/He data reveals that denudation of the Northern Cascades is spatially and temporally constant at -100 m/Ma between ~32 and ~2 Ma, which likely reflects uplift due to magmatic crustal thickening since the initiation of the Cenozoic stage of the continental magmatic arc. In contrast, the humid flank of the North Cascades is affected by a ten-fold acceleration in exhumation rate at ~2 Ma, which we interpret as forced by the initiation of glaciations; around 3 km of crust have been eroded since that time. Glaciations have three distinct effects on the dynamics of this mountain range: (1) they increase erosion, exhumation and uplift rates where precipitation rates are sufficient to drive efficient glacial erosion; (2) they efficiently limit the elevation of the range; (3) they lead to widening of the humid flank and contraction of the arid flank of the belt.Drainage reorganizations constitute an important agent of landscape evolution that is often underestimated to the benefit of tectonic or climatic events. We propose a new method that integrates geomorphology, low-temperature thermochronometry (apatite and zircon {U-Th-Sm)/He), and 3D numerical thermal-kinematic modelling to detect and date drainage instability producing recent gorge incision, and apply this approach to the Skagit River Gorge, North Cascades.Two zircon (U-Th)/He age-elevation profiles sampled on both sides of the Motagua Fault Zone (MFZ), the boundary between the North American and the Caribbean plates, combined with published thermochronological data show that strike-slip displacement has juxtaposed the cold Maya block (s.s.) against the hot, arc derived, Chortis block (s.s ), producing different age patterns on both sides of the fault and short-wavelength lateral thermal exchange, resulting in recent heating of the cool side and cooling of the hot side of the MFZ.Finally, an apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He age-elevation profile records rapid cooling at -35 Ma localized only in the upper crust along the northern side of the Motagua fault zone. We will try to reproduce these data by modeling the thermal perturbation resulting from the formation of a transtensional basin and of fluid flow activity along a crustal- scale strike-slip fault.

The interaction of ownership structure and customer satisfaction as determinants of brand equity

In this paper we study the interaction between ownership structure and customer satisfaction, and their impact on a firm's brand equity. We find that customer satisfaction has a positive direct effect on brand equity but an indirect negative one, through reductions in ownership concentration. This latter effect emerges when managers are focused mainly on satisfying customers. It gives out a warning signal that highlights the perverse effect of implementing policies focused excessively on satisfying customers at the expense of shareholders, on a firm's brand equity. We demonstrate our theoretical contention, empirically, making use of an incomplete panel data comprising 69 firms from 11 different nations for the period 2002-2005.

Structural characterization of rockfall sources in Yosemite Valley from remote sensing data and field surveys

Yosemite Valley poses significant rockfall hazard and related risk due to its glacially steepened walls and approximately 4 million visitors annually. To assess rockfall hazard, it is necessary to evaluate the geologic structure that contributes to the destabilization of rockfall sources and locate the most probable future source areas. Coupling new remote sensing techniques (Terrestrial Laser Scanning, Aerial Laser Scanning) and traditional field surveys, we investigated the regional geologic and structural setting, the orientation of the primary discontinuity sets for large areas of Yosemite Valley, and the specific discontinuity sets present at active rockfall sources. This information, combined with better understanding of the geologic processes that contribute to the progressive destabilization and triggering of granitic rock slabs, contributes to a more accurate rockfall susceptibility assessment for Yosemite Valley and elsewhere.

Intégration de méthodes de data mining dans le renseignement criminel : analyse par des structures issues de la théorie des graphes dans le profilage des stupéfiants

Data mining can be defined as the extraction of previously unknown and potentially useful information from large datasets. The main principle is to devise computer programs that run through databases and automatically seek deterministic patterns. It is applied in different fields of application, e.g., remote sensing, biometry, speech recognition, but has seldom been applied to forensic case data. The intrinsic difficulty related to the use of such data lies in its heterogeneity, which comes from the many different sources of information. The aim of this study is to highlight potential uses of pattern recognition that would provide relevant results from a criminal intelligence point of view. The role of data mining within a global crime analysis methodology is to detect all types of structures in a dataset. Once filtered and interpreted, those structures can point to previously unseen criminal activities. The interpretation of patterns for intelligence purposes is the final stage of the process. It allows the researcher to validate the whole methodology and to refine each step if necessary. An application to cutting agents found in illicit drug seizures was performed. A combinatorial approach was done, using the presence and the absence of products. Methods coming from the graph theory field were used to extract patterns in data constituted by links between products and place and date of seizure. A data mining process completed using graphing techniques is called ``graph mining''. Patterns were detected that had to be interpreted and compared with preliminary knowledge to establish their relevancy. The illicit drug profiling process is actually an intelligence process that uses preliminary illicit drug classes to classify new samples. Methods proposed in this study could be used \textit{a priori} to compare structures from preliminary and post-detection patterns. This new knowledge of a repeated structure may provide valuable complementary information to profiling and become a source of intelligence.

Some last thoughts on compositional data analysis

One of the disadvantages of old age is that there is more past than future: this,however, may be turned into an advantage if the wealth of experience and, hopefully,wisdom gained in the past can be reflected upon and throw some light on possiblefuture trends. To an extent, then, this talk is necessarily personal, certainly nostalgic,but also self critical and inquisitive about our understanding of the discipline ofstatistics. A number of almost philosophical themes will run through the talk: searchfor appropriate modelling in relation to the real problem envisaged, emphasis onsensible balances between simplicity and complexity, the relative roles of theory andpractice, the nature of communication of inferential ideas to the statistical layman, theinter-related roles of teaching, consultation and research. A list of keywords might be:identification of sample space and its mathematical structure, choices betweentransform and stay, the role of parametric modelling, the role of a sample spacemetric, the underused hypothesis lattice, the nature of compositional change,particularly in relation to the modelling of processes. While the main theme will berelevance to compositional data analysis we shall point to substantial implications forgeneral multivariate analysis arising from experience of the development ofcompositional data analysis…

Stepwise multiple testing as formalized data snooping

It is common in econometric applications that several hypothesis tests arecarried out at the same time. The problem then becomes how to decide whichhypotheses to reject, accounting for the multitude of tests. In this paper,we suggest a stepwise multiple testing procedure which asymptoticallycontrols the familywise error rate at a desired level. Compared to relatedsingle-step methods, our procedure is more powerful in the sense that itoften will reject more false hypotheses. In addition, we advocate the useof studentization when it is feasible. Unlike some stepwise methods, ourmethod implicitly captures the joint dependence structure of the teststatistics, which results in increased ability to detect alternativehypotheses. We prove our method asymptotically controls the familywise errorrate under minimal assumptions. We present our methodology in the context ofcomparing several strategies to a common benchmark and deciding whichstrategies actually beat the benchmark. However, our ideas can easily beextended and/or modied to other contexts, such as making inference for theindividual regression coecients in a multiple regression framework. Somesimulation studies show the improvements of our methods over previous proposals. We also provide an application to a set of real data.

Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

This paper tests for the market environment within which US fiscal policyoperates, that is we test for the incompleteness of the US government bondmarket. We document the stochastic properties of US debt and deficits andthen consider the ability of competing optimal tax models to account forthis behaviour. We show that when a government pursues an optimal taxpolicy and issues a full set of contingent claims, the value of debthas the same or less persistence than other variables in the economyand declines in response to higher deficit shocks. By contrast, ifgovernments only issue one-period risk free bonds (incomplete markets),debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases inresponse to expenditure shocks. Maintaining the hypothesis of Ramseybehavior, US data conflicts.

Human capital, the structure of production and growth

Do high levels of human capital foster economic growth by facilitating technology adoption? If so, countries with more human capital should have adopted more rapidly the skilled-labor augmenting technologies becoming available since the 1970 s. High human capital levels should therefore have translated into fast growth in more compared to less human-capital-intensive industries in the 1980 s. Theories of international specialization point to human capital accumulation as another important determinant of growth in human-capital-intensive industries. Using data for a large sample of countries, we find significant positive effects of human capital levels and human capital accumulation on output and employment growth in human-capital-intensive industries.

How much structure in empirical models?

This chapter highlights the problems that structural methods and SVAR approaches have when estimating DSGE models and examining their ability to capture important features of the data. We show that structural methods are subject to severe identification problems due, in large part, to the nature of DSGE models. The problems can be patched up in a number of ways but solved only if DSGEs are completely reparametrized or respecified. The potential misspecification of the structural relationships give Bayesian methods an hedge over classical ones in structural estimation. SVAR approaches may face invertibility problems but simple diagnostics can help to detect and remedy these problems. A pragmatic empirical approach ought to use the flexibility of SVARs against potential misspecificationof the structural relationships but must firmly tie SVARs to the class of DSGE models which could have have generated the data.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.

Dynamics and genetic structure of Argentine ant supercolonies in their native range.

Some introduced ant populations have an extraordinary social organization, called unicoloniality, whereby individuals mix freely within large supercolonies. We investigated whether this mode of social organization also exists in native populations of the Argentine ant Linepithema humile. Behavioral analyses revealed the presence of 11 supercolonies (width 1 to 515 m) over a 3-km transect. As in the introduced range, there was always strong aggression between but never within supercolonies. The genetic data were in perfect agreement with the behavioral tests, all nests being assigned to identical supercolonies with the different methods. There was strong genetic differentiation between supercolonies but no genetic differentiation among nests within supercolonies. We never found more than a single mitochondrial haplotype per supercolony, further supporting the view that supercolonies are closed breeding units. Genetic and chemical distances between supercolonies were positively correlated, but there were no other significant associations between geographic, genetic, chemical, and behavioral distances. A comparison of supercolonies sampled in 1999 and 2005 revealed a very high turnover, with about one-third of the supercolonies being replaced yearly. This dynamic is likely to involve strong competition between supercolonies and thus act as a potent selective force maintaining unicoloniality over evolutionary time.

Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Factor structure of the SOCRATES questionnaire in hospitalized medical patients.

The Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale (SOCRATES), a 19-item instrument developed to assess readiness to change alcohol use among individuals presenting for specialized alcohol treatment, has been used in various populations and settings. Its factor structure and concurrent validity has been described for specialized alcohol treatment settings and primary care. The purpose of this study was to determine the factor structure and concurrent validity of the SOCRATES among medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use not seeking help for specialized alcohol treatment. The subjects were 337 medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use, identified during their hospital stay. Most of them had alcohol dependence (76%). We performed an Alpha Factor Analysis (AFA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the 19 SOCRATES items, and forced 3 factors and 2 components, in order to replicate findings from Miller and Tonigan (Miller, W. R., & Tonigan, J. S., (1996). Assessing drinkers' motivations for change: The Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale (SOCRATES). Psychology of Addictive Behavior, 10, 81-89.) and Maisto et al. (Maisto, S. A., Conigliaro, J., McNeil, M., Kraemer, K., O'Connor, M., & Kelley, M. E., (1999). Factor structure of the SOCRATES in a sample of primary care patients. Addictive Behavior, 24(6), 879-892.). Our analysis supported the view that the 2 component solution proposed by Maisto et al. (Maisto, S.A., Conigliaro, J., McNeil, M., Kraemer, K., O'Connor, M., & Kelley, M.E., (1999). Factor structure of the SOCRATES in a sample of primary care patients. Addictive Behavior, 24(6), 879-892.) is more appropriate for our data than the 3 factor solution proposed by Miller and Tonigan (Miller, W. R., & Tonigan, J. S., (1996). Assessing drinkers' motivations for change: The Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale (SOCRATES). Psychology of Addictive Behavior, 10, 81-89.). The first component measured Perception of Problems and was more strongly correlated with severity of alcohol-related consequences, presence of alcohol dependence, and alcohol consumption levels (average number of drinks per day and total number of binge drinking days over the past 30 days) compared to the second component measuring Taking Action. Our findings support the view that the SOCRATES is comprised of two important readiness constructs in general medical patients identified by screening.

Integration of high-resolution geophysical data for the characterization of alluvial aquifers : new approaches and implications for hydrological predictions

Abstract Accurate characterization of the spatial distribution of hydrological properties in heterogeneous aquifers at a range of scales is a key prerequisite for reliable modeling of subsurface contaminant transport, and is essential for designing effective and cost-efficient groundwater management and remediation strategies. To this end, high-resolution geophysical methods have shown significant potential to bridge a critical gap in subsurface resolution and coverage between traditional hydrological measurement techniques such as borehole log/core analyses and tracer or pumping tests. An important and still largely unresolved issue, however, is how to best quantitatively integrate geophysical data into a characterization study in order to estimate the spatial distribution of one or more pertinent hydrological parameters, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first develop a strategy for the assimilation of several types of hydrogeophysical data having varying degrees of resolution, subsurface coverage, and sensitivity to the hydrologic parameter of interest. In this regard a novel simulated annealing (SA)-based conditional simulation approach was developed and then tested in its ability to generate realizations of porosity given crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and neutron porosity log data. This was done successfully for both synthetic and field data sets. A subsequent issue that needed to be addressed involved assessing the potential benefits and implications of the resulting porosity realizations in terms of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. This was investigated synthetically assuming first that the relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity was well-defined. Then, the relationship was itself investigated in the context of a calibration procedure using hypothetical tracer test data. Essentially, the relationship best predicting the observed tracer test measurements was determined given the geophysically derived porosity structure. Both of these investigations showed that the SA-based approach, in general, allows much more reliable hydrological predictions than other more elementary techniques considered. Further, the developed calibration procedure was seen to be very effective, even at the scale of tomographic resolution, for predictions of transport. This also held true at locations within the aquifer where only geophysical data were available. This is significant because the acquisition of hydrological tracer test measurements is clearly more complicated and expensive than the acquisition of geophysical measurements. Although the above methodologies were tested using porosity logs and GPR data, the findings are expected to remain valid for a large number of pertinent combinations of geophysical and borehole log data of comparable resolution and sensitivity to the hydrological target parameter. Moreover, the obtained results allow us to have confidence for future developments in integration methodologies for geophysical and hydrological data to improve the 3-D estimation of hydrological properties.

A scaled difference chi-square test statistic for moment structure analysis

A family of scaling corrections aimed to improve the chi-square approximation of goodness-of-fit test statistics in small samples, large models, and nonnormal data was proposed in Satorra and Bentler (1994). For structural equations models, Satorra-Bentler's (SB) scaling corrections are available in standard computer software. Often, however, the interest is not on the overall fit of a model, but on a test of the restrictions that a null model say ${\cal M}_0$ implies on a less restricted one ${\cal M}_1$. If $T_0$ and $T_1$ denote the goodness-of-fit test statistics associated to ${\cal M}_0$ and ${\cal M}_1$, respectively, then typically the difference $T_d = T_0 - T_1$ is used as a chi-square test statistic with degrees of freedom equal to the difference on the number of independent parameters estimated under the models ${\cal M}_0$ and ${\cal M}_1$. As in the case of the goodness-of-fit test, it is of interest to scale the statistic $T_d$ in order to improve its chi-square approximation in realistic, i.e., nonasymptotic and nonnormal, applications. In a recent paper, Satorra (1999) shows that the difference between two Satorra-Bentler scaled test statistics for overall model fit does not yield the correct SB scaled difference test statistic. Satorra developed an expression that permits scaling the difference test statistic, but his formula has some practical limitations, since it requires heavy computations that are notavailable in standard computer software. The purpose of the present paper is to provide an easy way to compute the scaled difference chi-square statistic from the scaled goodness-of-fit test statistics of models ${\cal M}_0$ and ${\cal M}_1$. A Monte Carlo study is provided to illustrate the performance of the competing statistics.